Essays on mixed-frequency data : forecasting and unit root testing

Doutoramento em Economia

EVALUATING THE OIL SANDS RECLAMATION PROCESS: ASSESSING POLICY CAPACITY AND STAKEHOLDER ACCESS FOR GOVERNMENT AND NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS OPERATING IN ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS

By employing interpretive policy analysis this thesis aims to assess, measure, and explain policy capacity for government and non-government organizations involved in reclaiming Alberta's oil sands. Using this type of analysis to assess policy capacity is a novel approach for understanding reclamation policy; and therefore, this research will provide a unique contribution to the literature surrounding reclamation policy. The oil sands region in northeast Alberta, Canada is an area of interest for a few reasons; primarily because of the vast reserves of bitumen and the environmental cost associated with developing this resource. An increase in global oil demand has established incentive for industry to seek out and develop new reserves. Alberta's oil sands are one of the largest remaining reserves in the world, and there is significant interest in increasing production in this region. Furthermore, tensions in several oil exporting nations in the Middle East remain unresolved, and this has garnered additional support for a supply side solution to North American oil demands. This solution relies upon the development of reserves in both the United States and Canada. These compounding factors have contributed to the increased development in the oil sands of northeastern Alberta. Essentially, a rapid expansion of oil sands operations is ongoing, and is the source of significant disturbance across the region. This disturbance, and the promises of reclamation, is a source of contentious debates amongst stakeholders and continues to be highly visible in the media. If oil sands operations are to retain their social license to operate, it is critical that reclamation efforts be effective. One concern non-governmental organizations (NGOs) expressed criticizes the current monitoring and enforcement of regulatory programs in the oil sands. Alberta's NGOs have suggested the data made available to them originates from industrial sources, and is generally unchecked by government. In an effort to discern the overall status of reclamation in the oil sands this study explores several factors essential to policy capacity: work environment, training, employee attitudes, perceived capacity, policy tools, evidence based work, and networking. Data was collected through key informant interviews with senior policy professionals in government and non-government agencies in Alberta. The following are agencies of interest in this research: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP); Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development (AESRD); Alberta Energy Regulator (AER); Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA); Alberta Environment Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting Agency (AEMERA); Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA). The aim of this research is to explain how and why reclamation policy is conducted in Alberta's oil sands. This will illuminate government capacity, NGO capacity, and the interaction of these two agency typologies. In addition to answering research questions, another goal of this project is to show interpretive analysis of policy capacity can be used to measure and predict policy effectiveness. The oil sands of Alberta will be the focus of this project, however, future projects could focus on any government policy scenario utilizing evidence-based approaches.

Lower Aptian Comparative Stratigraphy of the Basco-Cantabrian Region (Spain) and Eastern Cordillera (Colombia): implications for local factors in the depositional record of Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a (OAE-1a)

An important episode of carbon sequestration, Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a (OAE-1a), characterizes the Lower Aptian worldwide, and is mostly known from deeper-water settings. The present work of two Lower Aptian deposits, Madotz (N Spain) and Curití Quarry (Colombia), is a multiproxy study that includes fossil assemblages, microfacies, X-ray diffraction bulk and clay mineralogy, elemental analyses (major, minor, trace elements), Rock-Eval pyrolysis, biomarkers, inorganic and organic carbon content, and stable carbon isotopes. The results provide baseline evidence of the local and global controlling environmental factors influencing OAE-1a in shallow-water settings. The data also improve our general understanding of the conditions under which organic-carbon-rich deposits accumulate. The sequence at Madotz includes four intervals (Unit 1; Subunits 2a, 2b and 2c) that overlap the times prior to, during and after the occurrence of OAE-1a. The Lower Unit 1(3m thick) is essentially siliciclastic, and Subunit 2a (20m) contains Urgonian carbonate facies that document abruptly changing platform conditions prior to OAE-1a. Subunit 2b (24.4 m) is a mixed carbonate-siliciclastic facies with orbitolinid-rich levels that coincides with OAE-1a δ13C stages C4-C6, and is coeval with the upper part of the Deshayesites forbesi ammonite zone. Levels with pyrite and the highest TOC values (0.4-0.97%), interpreted as accumulating under suboxic conditions, and are restricted to δ13C stages C4 and C5. The best development of the suboxic facies is at the level representing the peak of the transgression. Subunit 2c, within δ13C stage C7, shows a return of the Urgonian facies. The 23.35-m section at Curití includes a 6.3-m interval at the base of the Paja Formation dominated by organic-rich marlstones and shales lacking benthic fossils and bioturbation, with TOC values as high as 8.84%. The interval overlies a level containing reworked and phosphatized assemblages of middle Barremian to lowest Aptian ammonites. The range of values and the overall pattern of the δ13Corg (-22.05‰ to -20.47‰) in the 6.3m-interval is comparable with Lower Aptian δ13C stage C7. Thus, conditions of oxygen depletion at this site also occurred after Oceanic Anoxic Event-1a, which developed between carbon isotope stages C3 and C6. Both sites, Madotz and Curití, attest to the importance of terrigenous and nutrient fluxes in increasing OM productivity that led to episodic oxygen deficiency.

Climate change adaptation solutions for the green sectors of selected zones in the MENA region

In this paper, we propose climate adaptation solutions for the green sectors in three different zones of MENA: Egypt’s Delta (irrigated), Karak, in the highlands of Jordan (rainfed), and Lebanon’s Orontes basin (mixed: rainfed-irrigated). We analysed land use and crop intensification, and calculated the economic productivity of water – a critical scarce resource in MENA. By integrating the results with evidence from literature on the potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic factors, we could identify vulnerability levels of the three regions and propose adaptation measures relying of the concept of the “food-water-energy nexus.” While the vulnerability levels are found to be high in the Delta (Egypt) and Karak (Jordan), mainly due to water scarcity and poor adaptive capacity, the vulnerability level is moderate in the Orontes zone (Lebanon) due to a diversified agricultural sector and good market development, coupled with moderate water scarcity. Proposed adaptation solutions range from measures to improve technical efficiency, to measures that encourage economically efficient allocation by use of market forces. For both cases, the development of market opportunities is emphasized to make the proposed measures attractive to farmers.

The flora and communities Carnaubal Palm Forest in the northern region of Ceará - Brazil

The “dicótilo-palmácea” mixed forest is found in the fluvial plains (floodplains) of watercourses on the Ceará semiarid region (Brazil), distinguishing from the surrounding vegetation (caatinga) by the prevalence of larger tree species. In the river’s margins, presenting high variability in the extension of the riverbanks, arise floodplains in pedologic complexes mainly composed by neossols and argissols, resulting from the deposition of sediments. In these areas of high fertility soils and subjected to flooding during part of the year, it develops a particular type of riparian vegetation dominated by carnauba palm tree (Copernicia prunifera (Mill.) H.E. Moore) forming a particular type of riparian forest, designated by carnaubal palm forest. We aimed to carry out floristic and phytosociological surveys of carnauba palm forests located in the northern region of Ceará. The classical sigmatist method of Braun-Blanquet was applied and classification analysis (Twinspan) was perfomed. The field work occurred in March 2014 and 2016 in eight areas: Fazenda Pedra Branca (03º 37’ 10’’ S e 40º 18’ 30’’ W, 104 m asl), Vale do Rio Bom Jesus (04º 04’ 42’’ S e 39º 57’ 08’’ W, 200 m asl), Lagoa do Peixe (03º 56’ 28’’ S e 40º 23’ 23’’ W, 97 m asl), Fazenda Peixes (04º 06’ 03’’ S e 40º 32’ 43’’ W, 114 m asl), Fazenda Natividade (04º 02’ 50’’ S e 40º 29’ 03’’ W, 109 m asl), Fazenda Morro Alto (02º 53’ 42’’ S e 39º 54’ 51’’ W, 16 m asl), Fazenda Araticum (03º 04’ 58’’ S e 40º 09’ 36’’ W, 19 m asl) and Fazenda Experimental da UVA (03º 37' 04'' S 40º 18' 18'' W, 200 m asl).The floristic list consists of 170 species, distributed between 127 genera and 50 families. Twenty-seven Brazilian endemic species were identified, from which 8 are exclusive of the Caatinga biome. The Fabaceae was the most representative family, with the highest number of species (28), followed by Poaceae (17), Malvaceaea (14), Euphorbiaceae (12), Asteraceaea (9), Convolvulaceae and Rubiaceae (9). The dominant life forms were therophytes (34%), phanerophytes (30%) and chamaephytes (18%). Two communities were identified as a result of the classification analysis using the Twinspan.

Dynamic Human Robot Interaction Framework Using Deep Learning and Robot Operating System (ROS): a practical approach

Trying to explain to a robot what to do is a difficult undertaking, and only specific types of people have been able to do so far, such as programmers or operators who have learned how to use controllers to communicate with a robot. My internship's goal was to create and develop a framework that would make that easier. The system uses deep learning techniques to recognize a set of hand gestures, both static and dynamic. Then, based on the gesture, it sends a command to a robot. To be as generic as feasible, the communication is implemented using Robot Operating System (ROS). Furthermore, users can add new recognizable gestures and link them to new robot actions; a finite state automaton enforces the users' input verification and correct action sequence. Finally, the users can create and utilize a macro to describe a sequence of actions performable by a robot.

Clinical Consequences Of Tityus Bahiensis And Tityus Serrulatus Scorpion Stings In The Region Of Campinas, Southeastern Brazil.

Scorpion stings account for most envenomations by venomous animals in Brazil. A retrospective study (1994-2011) of the clinical consequences of Tityus scorpion stings in 1327 patients treated at a university hospital in Campinas, southeastern Brazil, is reported. The clinical classification, based on outcome, was: dry sting (no envenoming), class I (only local manifestations), class II (systemic manifestations), class III (life-threatening manifestations, such as shock and/or cardiac failure requiring inotropic/vasopressor agents, and/or respiratory failure), and fatal. The median patient age was 27 years (interquartile interval = 15-42 years). Scorpions were brought for identification in 47.2% of cases (Tityus bahiensis 27.7%; Tityus serrulatus 19.5%). Sting severity was classified and each accounted for the following percentage of cases: dry stings - 3.4%, class I - 79.6%, class II - 15.1%, class III - 1.8% and fatal - 0.1%. Pain was the primary local manifestation (95.5%). Systemic manifestations such as vomiting, agitation, sweating, dyspnea, bradycardia, tachycardia, tachypnea, somnolence/lethargy, cutaneous paleness, hypothermia and hypotension were detected in class II or class III + fatal groups, but were significantly more frequent in the latter group. Class III and fatal cases occurred only in children <15 years old, with scorpions being identified in 13/25 cases (T. serrulatus, n = 12; T. bahiensis, n = 1). Laboratory blood abnormalities (hyperglycemia, hypokalemia, leukocytosis, elevations in serum total CK, CK-MB and troponin T, bicarbonate consumption and an increase in base deficit and blood lactate), electrocardiographic changes (ST segment) and echocardiographic alterations (ventricular ejected fraction <54%) were frequently detected in class III patients. Seventeen patients developed pulmonary edema, 16 had cardiac failure and seven had cardiogenic shock. These results indicate that most scorpion stings involved only local manifestations, mainly pain; the greatest severity was associated with stings by T. serrulatus and in children <15 years old.

Electrochemical Oxidation Of Landfill Leachate In A Flow Reactor: Optimization Using Response Surface Methodology.

Response surface methodology based on Box-Behnken (BBD) design was successfully applied to the optimization in the operating conditions of the electrochemical oxidation of sanitary landfill leachate aimed for making this method feasible for scale up. Landfill leachate was treated in continuous batch-recirculation system, where a dimensional stable anode (DSA(©)) coated with Ti/TiO2 and RuO2 film oxide were used. The effects of three variables, current density (milliampere per square centimeter), time of treatment (minutes), and supporting electrolyte dosage (moles per liter) upon the total organic carbon removal were evaluated. Optimized conditions were obtained for the highest desirability at 244.11 mA/cm(2), 41.78 min, and 0.07 mol/L of NaCl and 242.84 mA/cm(2), 37.07 min, and 0.07 mol/L of Na2SO4. Under the optimal conditions, 54.99 % of chemical oxygen demand (COD) and 71.07 ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N) removal was achieved with NaCl and 45.50 of COD and 62.13 NH3-N with Na2SO4. A new kinetic model predicted obtained from the relation between BBD and the kinetic model was suggested.

Augmented Mixed Models For Clustered Proportion Data.

Often in biomedical research, we deal with continuous (clustered) proportion responses ranging between zero and one quantifying the disease status of the cluster units. Interestingly, the study population might also consist of relatively disease-free as well as highly diseased subjects, contributing to proportion values in the interval [0, 1]. Regression on a variety of parametric densities with support lying in (0, 1), such as beta regression, can assess important covariate effects. However, they are deemed inappropriate due to the presence of zeros and/or ones. To evade this, we introduce a class of general proportion density, and further augment the probabilities of zero and one to this general proportion density, controlling for the clustering. Our approach is Bayesian and presents a computationally convenient framework amenable to available freeware. Bayesian case-deletion influence diagnostics based on q-divergence measures are automatic from the Markov chain Monte Carlo output. The methodology is illustrated using both simulation studies and application to a real dataset from a clinical periodontology study.

Triatominae Survey (hemiptera: Heteroptera: Reduviidae) In The South-central Region Of The State Of Bahia, Brazil Between 2008 And 2013.

Triatomine surveillance in rural areas, artificial ecotypes, and natural ecotopes of the cities of Caturama, Ibipitanga, Macaúbas, and Seabra in the south-central region of the Brazilian state of Bahia was carried out between 2008 and 2013. Natural infection by Trypanosoma cruzi was evaluated in the specimens collected to monitor vectors of Chagas disease. A total of 1,357 specimens were collected, and four species were identified: Triatoma sordida (83%), Triatoma lenti (16.4%), Triatoma pseudomaculata (0.5%), and Panstrongylus geniculatus (0.1%). Triatoma sordida was found in four cities, only 0.7% in intradomiciliary environments. Triatoma lenti was found only in Macaúbas; 8.5% were found in intradomiciliary environments, 88.3% in peridomiciliary environments, and 3.1% in sylvatic environments. Natural infection by T. cruzi was 0.5% for T. sordida and 3.1% T. lenti. All of these cases were found in peridomiciliary environments of Macaúbas. As the results show, triatomines were found in intradomiciliary environments in three cities that were surveyed in the south-central region of the state of Bahia. Thus, an epidemiologic survey should be performed to avoid the risk of transmission to the population.

The C-terminal Region Of The Human P23 Chaperone Modulates Its Structure And Function.

The p23 protein is a chaperone widely involved in protein homeostasis, well known as an Hsp90 co-chaperone since it also controls the Hsp90 chaperone cycle. Human p23 includes a β-sheet domain, responsible for interacting with Hsp90; and a charged C-terminal region whose function is not clear, but seems to be natively unfolded. p23 can undergo caspase-dependent proteolytic cleavage to form p19 (p231-142), which is involved in apoptosis, while p23 has anti-apoptotic activity. To better elucidate the function of the human p23 C-terminal region, we studied comparatively the full-length human p23 and three C-terminal truncation mutants: p23₁₋₁₁₇; p23₁₋₁₃₁ and p23₁₋₁₄₂. Our data indicate that p23 and p19 have distinct characteristics, whereas the other two truncations behave similarly, with some differences to p23 and p19. We found that part of the C-terminal region can fold in an α-helix conformation and slightly contributes to p23 thermal-stability, suggesting that the C-terminal interacts with the β-sheet domain. As a whole, our results suggest that the C-terminal region of p23 is critical for its structure-function relationship. A mechanism where the human p23 C-terminal region behaves as an activation/inhibition module for different p23 activities is proposed.

Mixed rain forest in southeastern Brazil: tree species regeneration and floristic relationships in a remaining stretch of forest near the city of Itaberá, Brazil

The aim of this work was to evaluate the floristic composition, richness, and diversity of the upper and lower strata of a stretch of mixed rain forest near the city of Itaberá, in southeastern Brazil. We also investigated the differences between this conservation area and other stretches of mixed rain forest in southern and southeastern Brazil, as well as other nearby forest formations, in terms of their floristic relationships. For our survey of the upper stratum (diameter at breast height [DBH] > 15 cm), we established 50 permanent plots of 10 × 20 m. Within each of those plots, we designated five, randomly located, 1 × 1 m subplots, in order to survey the lower stratum (total height > 30 cm and DBH < 15 cm). In the upper stratum, we sampled 1429 trees and shrubs, belonging to 134 species, 93 genera, and 47 families. In the lower stratum, we sampled 758 trees and shrubs, belonging to 93 species, 66 genera, and 39 families. In our floristic and phytosociological surveys, we recorded 177 species, belonging to 106 genera and 52 families. The Shannon Diversity Index was 4.12 and 3.5 for the upper and lower strata, respectively. Cluster analysis indicated that nearby forest formations had the strongest floristic influence on the study area, which was therefore distinct from other mixed rain forests in southern Brazil and in the Serra da Mantiqueira mountain range.

Analise comparativa das caracteristicas cinematicas da coluna durante a marcha e a corrida

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Proposição de um método de análise de movimentos de jogadores de tênis de campo a partir de vídeos televisivos = : Proposition of a method for tennis players motion analysis on broadcast videos

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Fine needle aspiration biopsy in the oral cavity and head and neck region

The objective of the current study was to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) of submucous nodules from the oral cavity and head and neck region as an auxiliary diagnostic tool. Fifty patients with nodule lesions in the oral cavity and the head and neck region were selected. All of them were submitted to FNAB and to either incisional or excisional biopsy. The diagnoses from the FNABs were compared with the biopsy diagnosis as the gold standard. All the cases of FNAB were analyzed by a single oral pathologist prior to the biopsy diagnosis. The results showed that the sensitivity of FNAB was 75%, its specificity was 96% and its accuracy was 58.8%. The false positive and false negative rates were 6.7% and 13.3%, respectively. The positive predictive value was 86% and the negative predictive value was 93%. The inconclusive rate was 16/50. FNAB displayed a high success rate for identifying both malignant and benign lesions, but a low accuracy for making a final diagnosis.