Utilização de coletor de composto parabólico de concentração solar na indústria de asfalto.

Esta dissertação apresenta a avaliação térmica, econômica e ambiental de um sistema de aquecimento solar (SHS) que é usado em uma usina de asfalto, através de simulação computacional com TRNSYS. O processo escolhido é o aquecimento do betume a partir da temperatura de armazenamento até a temperatura de mistura, usando óleo mineral como fluido de transferência de calor (HTF). Os componentes do sistema são o trocador de calor HTF-betume, o coletor concentrador solar parabólico composto (CPC), o aquecedor auxiliar e a bomba de circulação. A simulação no TRNSYS calcula os balanços de massa e energia no circuito fechado do HTF a cada hora. Dados horários do Ano Meteorológico Típico (TMY) do Rio de Janeiro foram utilizados para executar este trabalho. Em muitos casos, a temperatura do HTF ultrapassou 238C, mostrando que o CPC é apropriado para esta aplicação. Economia de combustível e emissões evitadas foram consideradas para as análises economica e ambiental. Este trabalho descreve as fontes renováveis de energia, os tipos de usinas de asfalto e de aquecedores de betume. Ele também mostra a fração brasileira de algumas destas fontes. Os resultados, portanto, mostram ser possível encorajar políticas públicas ambientalmente corretas para incentivar o uso de energia solar na indústria de asfalto. Além disso, este trabalho pode ajudar na redução da elevada emissão dos gases de efeito estufa a partir da utilização dos combustíveis fósseis nesta indústria.

Sistema de Informações Geográficas para a Classificação dos Municípios Beneficiários dos Royalties do Petróleo.

A Constituição da República Federativa do Brasil (1988), em seu Art. n. 20, deixa claro: São bens da União: ... os recursos naturais da plataforma continental e da zona econômica exclusiva; e ainda: é assegurada, nos termos da lei, aos Estados, ao Distrito Federal e aos Municípios, bem como a órgãos da administração direta da União, participação no resultado da exploração de petróleo ou gás natural, de recursos hídricos para fins de geração de energia elétrica e de outros recursos minerais no respectivo território, plataforma continental, mar territorial ou zona econômica exclusiva, ou compensação financeira por essa exploração. Portanto, os Royalties do Petróleo constituem compensações financeiras, previstas em lei, devida aos entes federativos pelos concessionários que exploram e produzem petróleo ou gás natural. A identificação dos estados e municípios beneficiários dos Royalties do Petróleo e do gás natural extraídos da plataforma continental é feita de acordo com critérios definidos pelo decreto presidencial de n. 93.189, de 29 de agosto de 1986, que determina à Fundação Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) como órgão responsável pelos traçados das projetantes dos limites estaduais e municipais e, também, pela identificação dos Estados e Municípios a serem beneficiados pelos Royalties do Petróleo produzido na Plataforma Continental. Sendo assim, este trabalho consiste no desenvolvimento de um Sistema de Informação Geográfica voltado para a classificação dos estados e municípios quanto à sua categoria de beneficiário dos Royalties do Petróleo em conformidade com a Lei n. 7.525/86 e com o Decreto n. 93.189/86.

Mudanças de Estado e Multiplicadores Fiscais no Brasil entre 1999-2012

Este trabalho avalia o comportamento dos multiplicadores fiscais no Brasil entre 1999-2012. Para tanto, utiliza a metodologia desenvolvida por Sims, Waggoner e Zha (2008), que é um procedimento Bayesiano de estimação no qual os parâmetros do modelo mudam com alterações no estado da economia e os estados (regimes) seguem um processo de mudança de regime markoviano. Ou seja, foi estimado um modelo VAR Estrutural Bayesiano com mudança de regimes Markoviana (Markov Switching Structural Bayesian Vector Autoregression - MS-SBVAR). A base de dados é composta pelo consumo da administração pública, pela formação bruta de capital fixo da administração pública, pela carga tributária líquida e pelo Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), das três esferas do governo (federal, estadual, incluindo o Distrito Federal, e municipal). O software MATLAB/Dynare foi utilizado na estimação dos modelos e os resultados sugerem a ocorrência de 2 ou 3 regimes nos dois modelos que melhor se ajustaram aos dados. Os multiplicadores estimados apresentaram os sinais esperados e os diferentes tipos de multiplicadores fiscais calculados apresentaram valores maiores para a resposta do PIB a choques na formação bruta de capital fixo da administração pública que são eficazes, uma vez que possuem valores maiores do que um e impacto de longo prazo no PIB - quando comparado aos choques no consumo da administração pública, que possuem pouca persistência e são ineficazes (menores do que um), além de uma resposta negativa e persistente do PIB a choques na carga tributária líquida. Os resultados obtidos não indicam, ainda, multiplicadores fiscais maiores em regimes com maior variância nos resíduos do modelo.

Custos no setor público e sua utilização como subsidio a tomada de decisão

Este estudo descreve a expectativa do órgão central com a implantação do Sistema de Informação de Custos (SIC) do governo federal, seus órgãos usuários, a motivação para utilização do sistema por estes órgãos e as possíveis dificuldades durante o processo de implantação. Para responder o problema de pesquisa, o estudo foi dividido em três etapas. A primeira etapa apresenta-se em revisão bibliográfica e entrevistas com o órgão central para identificar o estágio atual da implantação do SIC, os órgãos usuários do mesmo e a expectativa futura para a utilização deste sistema. Na segunda etapa identifica-se através de questionário, a motivação da utilização do SIC nos órgãos usuários. Na terceira e última etapa realiza-se um estudo de campo em cinco dos órgãos usuários do SIC para identificar o objetivo da utilização do SIC, suas possíveis dificuldades de implantação e se a informação gerada pelo SIC é utilizada para subsidiar a tomada de decisão. Verificou-se que poucos órgãos já estão estruturados para a utilização das informações extraídas do SIC como tomada de decisão. Porém, os que estão estruturados ainda o utilizam de forma incipiente e poucos utilizam para subsidiar a tomada de decisão, devido à baixa demanda do gestor por tais informações. Conclui-se com este estudo que o SIC é um instrumento que pode subsidiar a tomada de decisão e que alguns órgãos já estão estruturados para gerar esta informação auxiliando assim o gestor público a ter mais eficiência nos gastos com recursos públicos. No entanto, a cultura da utilização desta informação para a tomada de decisão ainda é incipiente e há indícios de que isto se deve a falta de cultura organizacional em utilizar tais informações.

Deputados e Prefeitos: o nacional e o local na estrutura de oportunidades políticas no Brasil

A elaboração dessa tese tem por finalidade contribuir para a discussão sobre o modelo de carreira política que vem se desenvolvendo no Brasil. O objetivo do trabalho é compreender a sua construção a partir da apreensão da lógica da tomada de decisão do legislador brasileiro na definição de sua trajetória profissional. Para isso, o estudo procurou estabelecer as motivações dos membros da Câmara dos Deputados diante das opções de carreira que se apresentam, no sentido de permanecer ou não na arena legislativa. A questão analisada é se a instituição está oferecendo atrativos aos seus membros para sua permanência, ou se estes estão alocados em outras instâncias. A hipótese-teste é a de que o Poder Executivo tem atraído os membros do Legislativo, desenhando um padrão de carreira política no qual as arenas se intercalariam Executivo e Legislativo assim como as esferas federal, estadual e municipal. A tese está estruturada em uma revisão das literaturas estrangeira e brasileira sobre carreira política, apresentando também um exame dos modelos de recrutamento e permanência na carreira parlamentar. São consideradas as influências de dois elementos estruturais da lógica política no Brasil. O primeiro é a estrutura federativa adotada no país a partir da Constituição de 1988 e o segundo é o seu sistema eleitoral e partidário, sobretudo o papel dos partidos políticos e do tipo de recrutamento de candidatos na adoção das estratégias de carreira de seus representantes. Procura-se entender o modo pelo qual o quadro criado pela conjunção dessas características gera, viabiliza ou impede a construção das carreiras políticas no Brasil e das ambições que as determinam. Os dados coletados na pesquisa compreendem as eleições para a Câmara dos Deputados e para a Prefeitura em todos os municípios do Brasil ocorridas nos últimos 20 anos. São analisadas as trajetórias prévias e futuras dos deputados federais que, durante o mandato, se candidataram ao cargo de Prefeito. A premissa aqui utilizada vem da visão de que sair do Parlamento pode ser a melhor estratégia − do ponto de vista eleitoral − para a ele poder retornar e a melhor estratégia para aqueles que desejam prosseguir em suas carreiras com maior segurança. E obter cargos junto ao Executivo pode dar acesso a recursos que não estão disponíveis aos parlamentares.

Megaeventos esportivos e políticas públicas: Jogos Pan-Americanos 2007 e suas relações com a Copa do Mundo de Futebol de 2014 e os Jogos Olímpicos de 2016

Esta tese tem como questão central investigar de que forma as propostas de legados apresentadas pelos realizadores dos megaeventos esportivos brasileiros Jogos Pan-Americanos de 2007, Copa do Mundo de Futebol de 2014 e Jogos Olímpicos Rio 2016 respondem aos interesses das políticas públicas. Para tanto, os objetivos consistiram em: a) verificar na história recente de três megaeventos esportivos ações de boas práticas ligadas aos possíveis legados dos seguintes eventos: Copa Mundo/2010 África do Sul, Jogos Sul-Americanos/2010 Medellín/Colômbia e Jogos Olímpicos/2012 Londres / Inglaterra; b) verificar, diante dos legados do evento Jogos Pan-Americanos Rio-2007, como se instituíram as relações entre Governo Federal e o órgão de administração nacional do esporte olímpico brasileiro (COB) na definição das ações do evento; c) verificar em que medida se dão as relações entre o atual Governo Federal e os órgãos de administração nacional do esporte (CBF e COB), responsáveis pela organização da Copa do Mundo de Futebol de 2014 e pelos Jogos Olímpicos do Rio de Janeiro de 2016, no que tange aos possíveis legados a serem deixados pelos referidos eventos, se eles se aproximam ou se afastam dos encontrados nos Jogos Pan-Americanos Rio-2007. O procedimento metodológico utilizado neste estudo foi realizado em quatro fases: a) revisão bibliográfica sobre o tema; b) levantamento e análise de documentos referentes aos eventos estudados; c) realização de sete entrevistas semiestruturadas, que foram gravadas, transcritas e categorizadas; d) categorização e análise dos documentos e das entrevistas levando em consideração os objetivos propostos na pesquisa. Os resultados demonstraram que as ações de boas práticas ligadas aos possíveis legados dos megaeventos verificados na história recente se posicionam no campo dos legados tangíveis para os Jogos de 2010 e 2012 e intangíveis para a Copa do Mundo de 2010. Quanto à relação entre Governo Federal e COB nas tomadas de decisão, com base nos legados, do Pan de 2007, os dados mostram que o processo se baseou em um planejamento frágil, um modelo de governança inadequado e a assinatura tardia da matriz de responsabilidade do evento. Com relação ao desenvolvimento de legados dos eventos de 2014 e 2016, observamos que o de imagem é que aparece de maneira mais relevante na pesquisa. Finalmente, para responder à questão central da presente pesquisa, chegamos à demonstração de que a base das propostas de legados do Pan de 2007 pouco se aproxima dos interesses das políticas públicas. Já para a Copa do Mundo de 2014 e para os Jogos de 2016, as propostas de legados se direcionam para ações que, se bem-executadas, podem de forma direta ou indireta atender os interesses das políticas públicas.

Linking elements of the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) with the planned National Water Quality Monitoring Network. Proceedings from the NOAA-Supported workshop 19-21 September 2005

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in cooperation with the New Jersey Marine Sciences Consortium (NJMSC), hosted a workshop at Rutgers University on 19-21 September 2005 to explore ways to link the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) to the emerging infrastructure of the National Water Quality Monitoring Network (NWQMN). Participating partners included the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association, U.S. Geological Survey, Rutgers University Coastal Ocean Observing Laboratory, and the New Jersey Sea Grant College. The workshop was designed to highlight the importance of ecological and human health linkages in the movement of materials, nutrients, organisms and contaminants along the Delaware Bay watershed-estuary-coastal waters gradient (hereinafter, the “Delaware Bay Ecosystem [DBE]”), and to address specific water quality issues in the mid-Atlantic region, especially the area comprising the Delaware River drainage and near-shore waters. Attendees included federal, state and municipal officials, coastal managers, members of academic and research institutions, and industry representatives. The primary goal of the effort was to identify key management issues and related scientific questions that could be addressed by a comprehensive IOOS-NWQMN infrastructure (US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004; U.S. Ocean Action Plan 2004). At a minimum, cooperative efforts among the three federal agencies (NOAA, USGS and EPA) involved in water quality monitoring were required. Further and recommended by the U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy, outreach to states, regional organizations, and tribes was necessary to develop an efficient system of data gathering, quality assurance and quality control protocols, product development, and information dissemination.

National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Coastal Ecosystem Assessment Program: a manual of methods

Environmental managers strive to preserve natural resources for future generations but have limited decision-making tools to define ecosystem health. Many programs offer relevant broad-scale, environmental policy information on regional ecosystem health. These programs provide evidence of environmental condition and change, but lack connections between local impacts and direct effects on living resources. To address this need, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Ocean Service (NOAA/NOS) Cooperative Oxford Laboratory (COL), in cooperation with federal, state, and academic partners, implemented an integrated biotic ecosystem assessment on a sub-watershed 14-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUD) scale in Chesapeake Bay. The goals of this effort were to 1) establish a suite of bioindicators that are sensitive to ecosystem change, 2) establish the effects of varying land-use patterns on water quality and the subsequent health of living resources, 3) communicate these findings to local decision-makers, and 4) evaluate the success of management decisions in these systems. To establish indicators, three sub-watersheds were chosen based on statistical analysis of land-use patterns to represent a gradient from developed to agricultural. The Magothy (developed), Corsica (agricultural), and Rhode (reference) Rivers were identified. A random stratified design was developed based on depth (2m contour) and river mile. Sampling approaches were coordinated within this structure to allow for robust system comparisons. The sampling approach was hierarchal, with metrics chosen to represent a range from community to cellular level responses across multiple organisms. This approach allowed for the identification of sub-lethal stressors, and assessment of their impact on the organism and subsequently the population. Fish, crabs, clams, oysters, benthic organisms, and bacteria were targeted, as each occupies a separate ecological niche and may respond dissimilarly to environmental stressors. Particular attention was focused on the use of pathobiology as a tool for assessing environmental condition. By integrating the biotic component with water quality, sediment indices, and land- use information, this holistic evaluation of ecosystem health will provide management entities with information needed to inform local decision-making processes and establish benchmarks for future restoration efforts.

Benthic habitats of Buck Island Reef National Monument

NOAA’s Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment’s Biogeography Branch has mapped and characterized large portions of the coral reef ecosystems inside the U.S. coastal and territorial waters, including the U.S. Caribbean. The complementary protocols used in these efforts have enabled scientists and managers to quantitatively compare different marine ecosystems in tropical U.S. waters. The Biogeography Branch used these same general protocols to generate three seamless habitat maps of the Bank/Shelf (i.e., from 0 ≤50 meters) and the Bank/Shelf Escarpment (i.e., from 50 ≤1,000 meters and from 1,000 ≤ 1,830 meters) inside Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM). While this mapping effort marks the fourth time that the shallow-water habitats of BIRNM have been mapped, it is the first time habitats deeper than 30 meters (m) have been characterized. Consequently, this habitat map provides information on the distribution of mesophotic and deep-water coral reef ecosystems and serves as a spatial baseline for monitoring change in the Monument. A benthic habitat map was developed for approximately 74.3 square kilometers or 98% of the BIRNM using a combination of semi-automated and manual classification methods. The remaining 2% was not mapped due to lack of imagery in the western part of the Monument at depths ranging from 1,000 to 1,400 meters. Habitats were interpreted from orthophotographs, LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) imagery and four different types of MBES (Multibeam Echosounder) imagery. Three minimum mapping units (MMUs) (100, 1,000 and 5,000 square meters) were used because of the wide range of depths present in the Monument. The majority of the area that was characterized was deeper than 30 m on the Bank/Shelf Escarpment. This escarpment area was dominated by uncolonized sand which transitioned to mud as depth increased. Bedrock was exposed in some areas of the escarpment, where steep slopes prevented sediment deposition. Mesophotic corals were seen in the underwater video, but were too sparsely distributed to be reliably mapped from the source imagery. Habitats on the Bank/Shelf were much more variable than those seen on the Bank/Shelf Escarpment. The majority of this shelf area was comprised of coral reef and hardbottom habitat dominated by various forms of turf, fleshy, coralline or filamentous algae. Even though algae was the dominant biological cover type, nearly a quarter (24.3%) of the Monument’s Bank/Shelf benthos hosted a cover of 10%-<50% live coral. In total, 198 unique combinations of habitat classes describing the geography, geology and biology of the sea-floor were identified from the three types of imagery listed above. No thematic accuracy assessment was conducted for areas deeper than about 50 meters, most of which was located in the Bank/Shelf Escarpment. The thematic accuracy of classes in waters shallower than approximately 50 meters ranged from 81.4% to 94.4%. These thematic accuracies are similar to those reported for other NOAA benthic habitat mapping efforts in St. John (>80%), the Main Eight Hawaiian Islands (>84.0%) and the Republic of Palau (>80.0%). These digital maps products can be used with confidence by scientists and resource managers for a multitude of different applications, including structuring monitoring programs, supporting management decisions, and establishing and managing marine conservation areas. The final deliverables for this project, including the benthic habitat maps, source imagery and in situ field data, are available to the public on a NOAA Biogeography Branch website (http://ccma.nos.noaa.gov/ecosystems/coralreef/stcroix.aspx) and through an interactive, web-based map application (http://ccma.nos.noaa.gov/explorer/biomapper/biomapper.html?id=BUIS). This report documents the process and methods used to create the shallow to deep-water benthic habitat maps for BIRNM. Chapter 1 provides a short introduction to BIRNM, including its history, marine life and ongoing research activities. Chapter 2 describes the benthic habitat classification scheme used to partition the different habitats into ecologically relevant groups. Chapter 3 explains the steps required to create a benthic habitat map using a combination of semi-automated and visual classification techniques. Chapter 4 details the steps used in the accuracy assessment and reports on the thematic accuracy of the final shallow-water map. Chapter 5 summarizes the type and abundance of each habitat class found inside BIRNM, how these habitats compare to past habitat maps and outlines how these new habitat maps may be used to inform future management activities.

National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) research highlights in the Chesapeake Bay

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States. It is a unique and valuable national treasure because of its ecological, recreational, economic and cultural benefits. The problems facing the Bay are well known and extensively documented, and are largely related to human uses of the watershed and resources within the Bay. Over the past several decades as the origins of the Chesapeake’s problems became clear, citizens groups and Federal, State, and local governments have entered into agreements and worked together to restore the Bay’s productivity and ecological health. In May 2010, President Barack Obama signed Executive Order number 13508 that tasked a team of Federal agencies to develop a way forward in the protection and restoration of the Chesapeake watershed. Success of both State and Federal efforts will depend on having relevant, sound information regarding the ecology and function of the system as the basis of management and decision making. In response to the executive order, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) has compiled an overview of its research in Chesapeake Bay watershed. NCCOS has a long history of Chesapeake Bay research, investigating the causes and consequences of changes throughout the watershed’s ecosystems. This document presents a cross section of research results that have advanced the understanding of the structure and function of the Chesapeake and enabled the accurate and timely prediction of events with the potential to impact both human communities and ecosystems. There are three main focus areas: changes in land use patterns in the watershed and the related impacts on contaminant and pathogen distribution and concentrations; nutrient inputs and algal bloom events; and habitat use and life history patterns of species in the watershed. Land use changes in the Chesapeake Bay watershed have dramatically changed how the system functions. A comparison of several subsystems within the Bay drainages has shown that water quality is directly related to land use and how the land use affects ecosystem health of the rivers and streams that enter the Chesapeake Bay. Across the Chesapeake as a whole, the rivers that drain developed areas, such as the Potomac and James rivers, tend to have much more highly contaminated sediments than does the mainstem of the Bay itself. In addition to what might be considered traditional contaminants, such as hydrocarbons, new contaminants are appearing in measurable amounts. At fourteen sites studied in the Bay, thirteen different pharmaceuticals were detected. The impact of pharmaceuticals on organisms and the people who eat them is still unknown. The effects of water borne infections on people and marine life are known, however, and the exposure to certain bacteria is a significant health risk. A model is now available that predicts the likelihood of occurrence of a strain of bacteria known as Vibrio vulnificus throughout Bay waters.

Northeast Fisheries Observer Program manual, 2013

The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) Fisheries Sampling Branch (FSB) collects, maintains, and distributes data for scientific and management purposes in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. FSB manages three separate but related observer programs: the Northeast Fisheries Observer Program (NEFOP), the Industry Funded Scallop (IFS) Observer Program, and the At Sea Monitoring (ASM) Program. For the purposes of this manual, “observers” refers to any observer/monitor working for the FSB. In 2011, FSB trained and deployed over 200 observers, provided coverage on a variety of fisheries, and completed over 15,000 sea days. Observed trips are required under many of the region's fishery management plans, and for some fisheries by other federal laws and authorities such as Amendment 16 and Framework 44, Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, Marine Mammal Protection Act, the Endangered Species Act, the and the Sustainable Fisheries Act. The purpose of this guide is to provide FSB observers, as well as end users of NEFSC Observer Program data, with a detailed description of each data field collected. In addition to this manual, the NEFSC Observer Program Biological Sampling and Catch Estimation Manual provides summaries and tables intended to enable observers to quickly determine the correct sampling protocols and methods while at sea. This manual represents a revision of the data forms, collection procedures, and protocols described in the 1996 NEFSC Observer Program Manual. For documentation of other changes see Documentation of changes made to the NEFSC Fisheries Observer Program Manual, 2013.

Evaluating the efficacy of managing West Coast groundfish resources through simulations

Management of West Coast groundfish resources by the Pacific Fishery Management Council involves Federal government and academic scientists conducting stock assessments, generally using the stock synthesis framework, applying the 40-10 rule to determine harvest guidelines for resources that are not overfished and conducting rebuilding analyses to determine harvest guidelines for resources that have been designated as overfished. However, this management system has not been evaluated in terms of its ability to satisfy the National Standard 1 goals of the Sustainable Fisheries Act. A Monte Carlo simulation framework is therefore outlined that can be used to make such evaluations. Based on simulations tailored to a situation similar to that of managing the widow rockfish (Sebastes entomelas) resource, it is shown that catches during recovery and thereafter are likely to be highly variable (up to ±30% from one year to the next). Such variability is far greater than has been presented to the decision makers to date. Reductions in interannual variability in catches through additional data collection are, however, unlikely. Rather, improved performance will probably arise from better methods for predicting future recruitment. Rebuilding analyses include quantities such as the year to which the desired probability of recovery applies. The estimates of such quantities are, however, very poorly determined.

Auto ID based control systems - An overview

This paper will provide a rationale for developing control systems based on the availability of automated identification (Auto ID) information provision. Much of the Auto-ID research has to date focussed on developing the essential infrastructure for dynamically extracting, networking and storing product data. These developments will help to revolutionise the accuracy, quality and timeliness of data acquired by Business Information Systems and should lead to major cost savings and performance improvements as a result. This paper introduces an additional phase of Auto ID research and development in which the nature of control system decisions is reconsidered in the light of the availability of ubiquitous, unique, item-level information. The paper will: (i) Indicate why the availability of ubiquitous, unique, item-level data can enable enhanced and fundamentally different control approaches and highlight potential benefits from control systems incorporating this Auto ID data (ii) Demonstrate what is required to develop control systems based around the availability of Auto ID data. (iii) Outline the research challenges in determining how such systems will be developed.

Computer-aided design of PV/wind hybrid system

A complete set of match calculation methods for optimum sizing of PV/wind hybrid system is presented. In this method, the more accurate and practical mathematic models for characterizing PV module, wind generator and battery are adopted; combining with hourly measured meteorologic data and load data, the performance of a PV/wind hybrid system is determined on a hourly basis; by fixing the capacity of wind generators, the whole year's LPSP (loss of power supply probability) values of PV/wind hybrid systems with different capacity of PV array and battery bank are calculated, then the trade-off curve between battery bank and PV array capacity is drawn for the given LPSP value; the optimum configuration which can meet the energy demand with the minimum cost can be found by drawing a tangent to the trade-off curve with the slope representing the relationship between cost of PV module and that of the battery. According to this match calculation method, a set of match calculation programs for optimum sizing of PV/wind hybrid systems have been developed. Applying these match calculation programs to an assumed PV/wind hybrid system to be installed at Waglan island of Hong Kong, the optimum configuration and its hourly, daily, monthly and yearly performances are given. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

岷江上游高山林线附近优势树种土壤种子库和幼苗更新特征的研究

岷江上游地区高山/亚高山植被分布的坡向性分异显著，阴阳坡高山林线不仅物种组成差异明显，并且分布海拔呈现出阴坡高阳坡低的格局．阳坡林线树种主要是圆柏属乔木，林线类型多为渐变型，海拔高度大约在3 400m~3 800m；阴坡林线树种主要是冷杉，林线类型多为骤变型，海拔高度约在3 800m~4 400m．本研究采用土壤种子库物理筛选、室内萌发实验及野外群落调查等方法，对岷江上游地区阴坡岷江冷杉和阳坡祁连圆柏两类林线树种不同海拔梯度上土壤种子库以及幼苗库特征进行了调查，从土壤种子库和幼苗更新特征的角度对林线乔木树种种群更新特征进行了分析，进而对该地区高山林线在阴阳坡分布差异的原因进行了探讨，结果显示： 1．土壤种子库 阴坡：阴坡高山林线附近岷江冷杉土壤种子的平均密度大约为50.96粒/m2，其中树线以上10m处土壤种子密度为1.00粒/m2，树线处大约19.33粒/m2，林线交错带内土壤种子密度最高为136.83粒/m2，郁闭林内种子密度小于林线交错带，只有30.50粒/m2，种子平均空壳率为52％，霉变率达34%，完好种子只有6%．土壤种子库垂直分布特征为地被物层含种子比重最大，大约在67.50%左右；其次为0~2cm层，约18.84%左右；2~5cm层所占种子比例最小，约13.66%左右．霉变种子数量与土壤深度呈负相关． 阳坡：阳坡祁连圆柏土壤种子的平均密度为60.16粒/m2．树线以上10m处密度为1.92粒/m2，树线位置大约108.16粒/m2，林线交错带内平均为75.80粒/m2，郁闭林内种子密度小于林线交错带，只有20.00粒/m2．种子平均空壳率为36％，完好种子占49%，霉变率较低，大约为10%．阴阳坡林线树种土壤种子库垂直分布特征为：地被物层含种子最多，其次为0~4cm层，4~10cm层所占种子比例最小，霉变种子数量与土壤深度也呈负相关． 2． 幼苗库调查 阳坡：在树线以上区域没有发现幼苗，林线交错带内幼苗密度平均达3 250株/hm2，郁闭林内仅2 750株/ hm2．整个样地内1～2a幼苗很少甚至没有出现，3～10a的幼苗相对较多．空间分布上，祁连圆柏幼苗在林线交错带内接近随机分布，郁闭林内则介于随机分布和均匀分布之间． 阴坡：在树线以上幼苗密度为1 250株/ hm2，全部为1~2a幼苗，林线交错带内幼苗密度平均达7 000株/ hm2，郁闭林内达6 250株/ hm2．林线附近岷江冷杉幼苗丰富度以及幼苗的出现频率明显高于祁连圆柏，年龄结构也较祁连圆柏完整．岷江冷杉幼苗空间分布除了树线处幼苗的分布为随机分布，其他海拔则为集群分布． 3．从不同土壤深度的种子总量和幼苗数量的相关性检验发现，当年生幼苗数量跟表层种子总量相关性极显著, 但是两年生幼苗的数量与底层种子数量相关性显著．土壤种子在土壤中的垂直分布格局从一定程度上可以反映种子库的年际特征．岷江冷杉土壤种子库较丰富，种子散布后的存活力随着时间的变化逐渐下降，属于季节性瞬时种子库；祁连圆柏土壤种子散布格局为集群型分布，成熟种子大部分散布在母株冠幅内，属于永久性土壤种子库． 4．在阴坡林线交错带及以上区域还存在较为丰富的乔木土壤种子，并且在树线以上区域还发现了少量的岷江冷杉幼苗．从样地乔木的年龄结构发现，在林线交错带内上部到树线位置主要以幼龄林为主，且年龄结构完整，基本符合入侵性林线特征；阳坡林线交错带内幼苗出现频率很低，树线以上区域虽然存在种子库，但是没有幼苗出现，在林线交错带内乔木径级差距很大，年龄结构异常不完整，这种特征的林线将会面临两个可能结果：一种是维持现有状态，保持平衡；另外一种就是退化，但阳坡林线的实际动态趋势还有待长期定点研究． Treelines on the upper region of Minjiang River differ between the north aspect and the south aspect in their appearances, altitudes and tree species. On the north aspect, trees of Abies form a sharp and abrupt treeline ranging from 3800m to 4400m, while on the south the treeline is generally lower(3 400~3 800m), more open and gradual and mostly composed of Sabina. In this study, we examined the altitudinal gradients of soil seed banks and seedling recruitments at the treeline ecotones of a N-aspect and a S-aspect by using soil sieving, germination experiment and field investigations, analyzed the characteristics of population regeneration of tree species at the transitional zone and presented a analysis of the causes to the aspect-related difference in treeline patterns in the study area. Major results of our study include: 1． Soil seed bank N-aspect: Of the 50 plots investigated, the average density of soil seeds is 50.96/m2, in which well-formed seeds account for 6%, empty seeds 52%, parasitized seeds34%, and seeds damaged by animals 8%. The size of soil seed bank varies along altitude, being 1.00 seeds /m2 at the 10m above the treeline and ca.19.33 seeds/m2 at the upper limit of treeline. The highest density (136.83 seeds/m2) occurs at the treeline ecotone. By contrast, the density of soil seed for the closed forest is only 30.50 seeds/m2. In terms of vertical strata, 67.50% of the total seeds are at the surface layer, 18.84% at the middle layer (0~2cm) and 13.66% at deeper layer (2~5cm). The number of parasitized seeds is negatively correlated to soil depth. S-aspect: Of the 50 plots investigated, the average density of soil seeds is 60.16 seeds/m2, and the well-formed seeds account for 49%, empty seeds 36%, parasitized seeds10%, and seeds damaged by animals 1%. The size of soil seed bank varies along altitude, with 1.92 seeds/m2 recorded at the10m above the treeline，108.16 seeds/m2 at the upper limit of treeline, and 75.80 seeds/m2 at the treeline ecotone, while that for the closed forest is 20.00 seeds/m2. The number of seeds decreases with the depth of soil. As is on the N-aspect, the size of soil bank, from large to small, follows the order of the surface layer, the middle layer (0~4cm) and the bottom layer (4~10cm). The number of parasitized seeds is also negatively correlated to the depth of the soil. 2． Seedling bank N-aspect: A mean maximum seedling abundance of 31 000 seedlings/hm2 was recorded near alpine treeline at growing season. The density of seedlings is 1 250 seedlings/ha (all being 1 or 2 years old) at the alpine meadow 10m away above treeline, 7 000 seedlings/ha at treeline ecotone and 6 250 seedlings/ha for closed forest．The spatial distribution of Abies faxoniana seedlings is random at the upper limit of the treeline but clumped at other altitudes． S-aspect: No seedlings were found at the alpine meadow 10m away from the treeline. The density of seedlings was 3 250 seedlings/ha at treeline ecotone and 2 750 seedlings/ha for the closed forest．Hardly any 1 year current and 2 year-old seedlings appeared at the plots. The spatial distribution of Sabina przewalskii seedlings is random at treeline ecotone and between “random” and “even” forest closed forest． 3．Correlation tests of seedling population and seed bank at different soil layers indicated that the emergents were strongly correlated to seed bank at surface layer while the number of two-year seedlings was significantly correlated to the seed bank at the bottom of soil layer, indicating that germination mainly occurs at the soil surface while the middle or bottom layer was the reserve for non-germination or dead seeds. It can thus be postulated that Abies faxoniana soil seed bank is of seasonal transient type. By contrast, the soil seed bank of Sabina przewalskii is of persistent type and the soil seeds and seedlings of this species occurred more frequently near the islands of adult trees. 4．A good many soil seeds of both tree species were found near the treeline ecotone and above at N- and S-aspects. A few young seedlings were found above the Abies treeline. Investigation of five altitudinal transects respectively on N- and S-aspects indicated that Abies faxoniana has a more complete age structure than the stands of Sabina przewalskii. The age of firs decreased from closed forest to the upper limit of treeline, which suggests that the Abies treeline is advancing to higher altitude. While on the south aspect, only few Sabina przewalskii soil seeds and nearly no seedlings were found above the treeline ecotone. The stands exhibit extremely great difference in diameter classes with significantly incomplete age structure. This would lead to two possible results for the treelines: maintaining an equilibrium state at the current position or degenerating. But more studies should be carried out at longer time scales or larger spatial scales to understand whether the Sabina treeline is degenerating.