Timing of progression from Chlamydia trachomatis infection to pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modelling study

Background Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms from the vagina and endocervix to the upper genital tract. PID can lead to infertility, ectopic pregnancy and chronic pelvic pain. The timing of development of PID after the sexually transmitted bacterial infection Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) might affect the impact of screening interventions, but is currently unknown. This study investigates three hypothetical processes for the timing of progression: at the start, at the end, or throughout the duration of chlamydia infection. Methods We develop a compartmental model that describes the trial structure of a published randomised controlled trial (RCT) and allows each of the three processes to be examined using the same model structure. The RCT estimated the effect of a single chlamydia screening test on the cumulative incidence of PID up to one year later. The fraction of chlamydia infected women who progress to PID is obtained for each hypothetical process by the maximum likelihood method using the results of the RCT. Results The predicted cumulative incidence of PID cases from all causes after one year depends on the fraction of chlamydia infected women that progresses to PID and on the type of progression. Progression at a constant rate from a chlamydia infection to PID or at the end of the infection was compatible with the findings of the RCT. The corresponding estimated fraction of chlamydia infected women that develops PID is 10% (95% confidence interval 7-13%) in both processes. Conclusions The findings of this study suggest that clinical PID can occur throughout the course of a chlamydia infection, which will leave a window of opportunity for screening to prevent PID.

Describing the progression from Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae to pelvic inflammatory disease: systematic review of mathematical modeling studies

Chlamydia screening is recommended to prevent pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). A systematic review was conducted to determine how the natural history of Chlamydia trachomatis or Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection and progression to PID have been described in mathematical modeling studies.

Prospective study of fetal DNA in serum and disease activity during pregnancy in women with inflammatory arthritis

OBJECTIVE: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) usually improves during pregnancy and recurs postpartum. Fetal cells and cell-free DNA reach the maternal circulation during normal pregnancy. The present study investigated dynamic changes in levels of fetal DNA in serum from women with RA and inflammatory arthritis during and after pregnancy to test the hypothesis that the levels of circulating fetal DNA correlate with arthritis improvement. METHODS: Twenty-five pregnant patients were prospectively studied. A real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction panel targeting unshared, paternally transmitted HLA sequences, a Y chromosome-specific sequence, or an insertion sequence within the glutathione S-transferase M1 gene was used to measure cell-free fetal DNA. Results were expressed as fetal genomic equivalents per milliliter (gE/ml) of maternal serum. Physical examinations were conducted during and after pregnancy. RESULTS: Levels of fetal DNA in women with improvement in or remission of arthritis were higher than those in women with active disease, especially in the third trimester. Overall, an inverse relationship between serum fetal DNA levels and disease activity was observed (P < 0.001). Serum fetal DNA increased with advancing gestation, reaching median levels of 24 gE/ml (range 0-334), 61 gE/ml (range 0-689), and 199 gE/ml (range 0-2,576) in the first, second, and third trimesters, respectively, with fetal DNA clearance observed postpartum. Arthritis improvement was initially noted in the first trimester for most patients, increased further or was sustained with advancing gestation, and was active postpartum. CONCLUSION: Changes in serum fetal DNA levels correlated with arthritis improvement during pregnancy and recurrence postpartum. Immunologic mechanisms by which pregnancy might modulate RA activity are described.

Recurrent ischemic colitis in a patient with leiden factor V mutation and systemic lupus erythematous with antiphospholipid syndrome

Ischemic colitis results from insufficient blood supply to the large intestine and is often associated with hypercoagulable states. The condition comprises a wide range presenting with mild to fulminant forms. Diagnosis remains difficult because these patients may present with non-specific abdominal symptoms. We report a 51- year-old female patient with known Leiden factor V mutation as well as systemic lupus erythematous along with antiphospholipid syndrome suffering from recurrent ischemic colitis. At admission, the patient complained about abdominal pain, diarrhea and rectal bleeding lasting for 24 hours. Laboratory tests showed an increased C-reactive protein (29.5 mg/dl), while the performed abdominal CT-scan revealed only a dilatation of the descending colon along with a thickening of the bowel wall. Laparotomy was performed showing an ischemic colon and massive peritonitis. Histological examination proved the suspected ischemic colitis. Consecutively, an anti-coagulation therapy with coumarin and aspirin 100 was initiated. Up to the time point of a follow up examination no further ischemic events had occurred. This case illustrates well the non-specific clinical presentation of ischemic colitis. A high index of suspicion, recognition of risk factors and a history of non-specific abdominal symptoms should alert the clinicians to the possibility of ischemic disease. Early diagnosis and initiation of anticoagulation therapy or surgical intervention in case of peritonitis are the major goals of therapy.

Bacterial colitis increases susceptibility to oral prion disease

Dietary exposure to prion-contaminated materials has caused kuru and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans and transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in cattle, mink, and felines. The epidemiology of dietary prion infections suggests that host genetic modifiers and possibly exogenous cofactors may play a decisive role in determining disease susceptibility. However, few cofactors influencing susceptibility to prion infection have been identified. In the present study, we investigated whether colitis might represent one such cofactor. We report that moderate colitis caused by an attenuated Salmonella strain more than doubles the susceptibility of mice to oral prion infection and modestly accelerates the development of disease after prion challenge. The prion protein was up-regulated in intestines and mesenteric lymph nodes of mice with colitis, providing a possible mechanism for the effect of colitis on the pathogenesis of prion disease. Therefore, moderate intestinal inflammation at the time of prion exposure may constitute one of the elusive risk factors underlying the development of TSE.

Bone healing around titanium implants in two rat colitis models

OBJECTIVE Crohn's disease is a chronic inflammatory process that has recently been associated with a higher risk of early implant failure. Herein we provide information on the impact of colitis on peri-implant bone formation using preclinical models of chemically induced colitis. METHODS Colitis was induced by intrarectal instillation of 2,4,6-trinitro-benzene-sulfonic-acid (TNBS). Colitis was also induced by feeding rats dextran-sodium-sulfate (DSS) in drinking water. One week after disease induction, titanium miniscrews were inserted into the tibia. Four weeks after implantation, peri-implant bone volume per tissue volume (BV/TV) and bone-to-implant contacts (BIC) were determined by histomorphometric analysis. RESULTS Cortical histomorphometric parameters were similar in the control (n = 10), DSS (n = 10) and TNBS (n = 8) groups. Cortical BV/TV was 92.2 ± 3.7%, 92.0 ± 3.0% and 92.6 ± 2.7%. Cortical BIC was 81.3 ± 8.8%, 83.2 ± 8.4% and 84.0 ± 7.0%, respectively. No significant differences were observed when comparing the medullary BV/TV and BIC (19.5 ± 6.4%, 16.2 ± 5.6% and 15.4 ± 9.0%) and (48.8 ± 12.9%, 49.2 ± 6.2 and 41.9 ± 11.7%), respectively. Successful induction of colitis was confirmed by loss of body weight and colon morphology. CONCLUSIONS The results suggest bone regeneration around implants is not impaired in chemically induced colitis models. Considering that Crohn's disease can affect any part of the gastrointestinal tract including the mouth, our model only partially reflects the clinical situation.

Direct and indirect effects of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis on the prevention of pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms, including Chlamydia trachomatis, to the upper genital tract. Screening could improve outcomes by identifying and treating chlamydial infections before they progress to PID (direct effect) or by reducing chlamydia transmission (indirect effect). METHODS We developed a compartmental model that represents a hypothetical heterosexual population and explicitly incorporates progression from chlamydia to clinical PID. Chlamydia screening was introduced, with coverage increasing each year for 10 years. We estimated the separate contributions of the direct and indirect effects of screening on PID cases prevented per 100,000 women. We explored the influence of varying the time point at which clinical PID could occur and of increasing the risk of PID after repeated chlamydial infections. RESULTS The probability of PID at baseline was 3.1% by age 25 years. After 5 years, the intervention scenario had prevented 187 PID cases per 100,000 women and after 10 years 956 PID cases per 100,000 women. At the start of screening, most PID cases were prevented by the direct effect. The indirect effect produced a small net increase in PID cases, which was outweighed by the effect of reduced chlamydia transmission after 2.2 years. The later that progression to PID occurs, the greater the contribution of the direct effect. Increasing the risk of PID with repeated chlamydial infection increases the number of PID cases prevented by screening. CONCLUSIONS This study shows the separate roles of direct and indirect PID prevention and potential harms, which cannot be demonstrated in observational studies.

TREM-1 deficiency can attenuate disease severity without affecting pathogen clearance

Triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (TREM-1) is a potent amplifier of pro-inflammatory innate immune reactions. While TREM-1-amplified responses likely aid an improved detection and elimination of pathogens, excessive production of cytokines and oxygen radicals can also severely harm the host. Studies addressing the pathogenic role of TREM-1 during endotoxin-induced shock or microbial sepsis have so far mostly relied on the administration of TREM-1 fusion proteins or peptides representing part of the extracellular domain of TREM-1. However, binding of these agents to the yet unidentified TREM-1 ligand could also impact signaling through alternative receptors. More importantly, controversial results have been obtained regarding the requirement of TREM-1 for microbial control. To unambiguously investigate the role of TREM-1 in homeostasis and disease, we have generated mice deficient in Trem1. Trem1(-/-) mice are viable, fertile and show no altered hematopoietic compartment. In CD4(+) T cell- and dextran sodium sulfate-induced models of colitis, Trem1(-/-) mice displayed significantly attenuated disease that was associated with reduced inflammatory infiltrates and diminished expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines. Trem1(-/-) mice also exhibited reduced neutrophilic infiltration and decreased lesion size upon infection with Leishmania major. Furthermore, reduced morbidity was observed for influenza virus-infected Trem1(-/-) mice. Importantly, while immune-associated pathologies were significantly reduced, Trem1(-/-) mice were equally capable of controlling infections with L. major, influenza virus, but also Legionella pneumophila as Trem1(+/+) controls. Our results not only demonstrate an unanticipated pathogenic impact of TREM-1 during a viral and parasitic infection, but also indicate that therapeutic blocking of TREM-1 in distinct inflammatory disorders holds considerable promise by blunting excessive inflammation while preserving the capacity for microbial control.

Inflammatory, immunological, and intestinal disease biomarkers in Chinese Shar-Pei dogs with marked hypocobalaminemia.

Chinese Shar-Pei dogs have a high prevalence of hypocobalaminemia and are commonly presented with clinical signs suggestive of severe and long-standing gastrointestinal disease such as diarrhea, vomiting, and/or weight loss. The aim of the current study was to evaluate serum concentrations of inflammatory markers, markers for intestinal disease, and immunological markers in Shar-Peis with hypocobalaminemia or normocobalaminemia (serum cobalamin concentrations within the reference interval). Serum samples from Shar-Peis were collected from various parts of the United States. Serum concentrations of inflammatory markers (i.e., C-reactive protein [CRP], calprotectin [CP], and S100A12), hyaluronic acid (HA, a marker for cutaneous mucinosis), and analytes commonly altered in chronic intestinal diseases (i.e., albumin, zinc, alpha1-proteinease inhibitor [α1PI], immunoglobulin [Ig]A, and IgM) were compared between Shar-Peis with hypocobalaminemia and Shar-Peis with normocobalaminemia. Serum concentrations of CRP, CP, S100A12, HA, zinc, and cα1-PI concentrations did not differ between hypocobalaminemic and normocobalaminemic Shar-Peis (P > 0.05). Serum concentrations of albumin were significantly lower in hypocobalaminemic Shar-Peis (median: 2.5 g/dl) than in normocobalaminemic Shar-Peis (median: 2.9 g/dl; P < 0.0001). Higher serum IgA concentrations and lower serum IgM concentrations were observed in hypocobalaminemic Shar-Peis (median: 1.7 g/l and 0.8 g/l, respectively) than in normocobalaminemic Shar-Peis (median: 0.7 g/l and 1.9 g/l, respectively; both P < 0.0001). In conclusion, no difference was found in serum concentrations of CRP, CP, S100A12, and HA between hypocobalaminemic and normocobalaminemic Shar-Peis whereas some differences were observed in analytes (e.g., albumin, IgA, and IgM) that may be altered in patients with chronic enteropathies.

Sample size considerations using mathematical models: an example with Chlamydia trachomatis infection and its sequelae pelvic inflammatory disease.

BACKGROUND The success of an intervention to prevent the complications of an infection is influenced by the natural history of the infection. Assumptions about the temporal relationship between infection and the development of sequelae can affect the predicted effect size of an intervention and the sample size calculation. This study investigates how a mathematical model can be used to inform sample size calculations for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) using the example of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). METHODS We used a compartmental model to imitate the structure of a published RCT. We considered three different processes for the timing of PID development, in relation to the initial C. trachomatis infection: immediate, constant throughout, or at the end of the infectious period. For each process we assumed that, of all women infected, the same fraction would develop PID in the absence of an intervention. We examined two sets of assumptions used to calculate the sample size in a published RCT that investigated the effect of chlamydia screening on PID incidence. We also investigated the influence of the natural history parameters of chlamydia on the required sample size. RESULTS The assumed event rates and effect sizes used for the sample size calculation implicitly determined the temporal relationship between chlamydia infection and PID in the model. Even small changes in the assumed PID incidence and relative risk (RR) led to considerable differences in the hypothesised mechanism of PID development. The RR and the sample size needed per group also depend on the natural history parameters of chlamydia. CONCLUSIONS Mathematical modelling helps to understand the temporal relationship between an infection and its sequelae and can show how uncertainties about natural history parameters affect sample size calculations when planning a RCT.

Impact of the early use of immunomodulators or TNF antagonists on bowel damage and surgery in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND The impact of early treatment with immunomodulators (IM) and/or TNF antagonists on bowel damage in Crohn's disease (CD) patients is unknown. AIM To assess whether 'early treatment' with IM and/or TNF antagonists, defined as treatment within a 2-year period from the date of CD diagnosis, was associated with development of lesser number of disease complications when compared to 'late treatment', which was defined as treatment initiation after >2 years from the time of CD diagnosis. METHODS Data from the Swiss IBD Cohort Study were analysed. The following outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazard modelling: bowel strictures, perianal fistulas, internal fistulas, intestinal surgery, perianal surgery and any of the aforementioned complications. RESULTS The 'early treatment' group of 292 CD patients was compared to the 'late treatment' group of 248 CD patients. We found that 'early treatment' with IM or TNF antagonists alone was associated with reduced risk of bowel strictures [hazard ratio (HR) 0.496, P = 0.004 for IM; HR 0.276, P = 0.018 for TNF antagonists]. Furthermore, 'early treatment' with IM was associated with reduced risk of undergoing intestinal surgery (HR 0.322, P = 0.005), and perianal surgery (HR 0.361, P = 0.042), as well as developing any complication (HR 0.567, P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS Treatment with immunomodulators or TNF antagonists within the first 2 years of CD diagnosis was associated with reduced risk of developing bowel strictures, when compared to initiating these drugs >2 years after diagnosis. Furthermore, early immunomodulators treatment was associated with reduced risk of intestinal surgery, perianal surgery and any complication.

Protective effect of a germline, IL-17-neutralizing antibody in murine models of autoimmune inflammatory disease.

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) inhibiting cytokines have recently emerged as new drug modalities for the treatment of chronic inflammatory diseases. Interleukin-17 (IL-17) is a T-cell-derived central mediator of autoimmunity. Immunization with Qβ-IL-17, a virus-like particle based vaccine, has been shown to produce autoantibodies in mice and was effective in ameliorating disease symptoms in animal models of autoimmunity. To characterize autoantibodies induced by vaccination at the molecular level, we generated mouse mAbs specific for IL-17 and compared them to germline Ig sequences. The variable regions of a selected hypermutated high-affinity anti-IL-17 antibody differed in only three amino acid residues compared to the likely germline progenitor. An antibody, which was backmutated to germline, maintained a surprisingly high affinity (0.5 nM). The ability of the parental hypermutated antibody and the derived germline antibody to block inflammation was subsequently tested in murine models of multiple sclerosis (experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis), arthritis (collagen-induced arthritis), and psoriasis (imiquimod-induced skin inflammation). Both antibodies were able to delay disease onset and significantly reduced disease severity. Thus, the mouse genome unexpectedly encodes for antibodies with the ability to functionally neutralize IL-17 in vivo.