Natural and anthropogenic methane fluxes in Eurasia: a mesoscale quantification by generalized atmospheric inversion

Eight surface observation sites providing quasi-continuous measurements of atmospheric methane mixingratios have been operated since the mid-2000’s in Siberia. For the first time in a single work, we assimilate 1 year of these in situ observations in an atmospheric inversion. Our objective is to quantify methane surface fluxes from anthropogenic and wetland sources at the mesoscale in the Siberian lowlands for the year 2010. To do so, we first inquire about the way the inversion uses the observations and the way the fluxes are constrained by the observation sites. As atmospheric inver- sions at the mesoscale suffer from mis-quantified sources of uncertainties, we follow recent innovations in inversion techniques and use a new inversion approach which quantifies the uncertainties more objectively than the previous inversion systems. We find that, due to errors in the representation of the atmospheric transport and redundant pieces of information, only one observation every few days is found valuable by the inversion. The remaining high-resolution quasi-continuous signal is representative of very local emission patterns difficult to analyse with a mesoscale system. An analysis of the use of information by the inversion also reveals that the observation sites constrain methane emissions within a radius of 500 km. More observation sites than the ones currently in operation are then necessary to constrain the whole Siberian lowlands. Still, the fluxes within the constrained areas are quantified with objectified uncertainties. Finally, the tolerance intervals for posterior methane fluxes are of roughly 20 % (resp. 50 %) of the fluxes for anthropogenic (resp. wetland) sources. About 50–70 % of Siberian lowlands emissions are constrained by the inversion on average on an annual basis. Extrapolating the figures on the constrained areas to the whole Siberian lowlands, we find a regional methane budget of 5–28 TgCH4 for the year 2010, i.e. 1–5 % of the global methane emissions. As very few in situ observations are available in the region of interest, observations of methane total columns from the Greenhouse Gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT) are tentatively used for the evaluation of the inversion results, but they exhibit only a marginal signal from the fluxes within the region of interest.

A Single-blinded, Randomized Clinical Trial of How to Implement an Evidence-based Treatment for Generalized Anxiety Disorder [IMPLEMENT] — Effects of Three Different Strategies of Implementation

BACKGROUND: Despite long-standing calls to disseminate evidence-based treatments for generalized anxiety (GAD), modest progress has been made in the study of how such treatments should be implemented. The primary objective of this study was to test three competing strategies on how to implement a cognitive behavioral treatment (CBT) for out-patients with GAD (i.e., comparison of one compensation vs. two capitalization models). METHODS: For our three-arm, single-blinded, randomized controlled trial (implementation of CBT for GAD [IMPLEMENT]), we recruited adults with GAD using advertisements in high-circulation newspapers to participate in a 14-session cognitive behavioral treatment (Mastery of your Anxiety and Worry, MAW-packet). We randomly assigned eligible patients using a full randomization procedure (1:1:1) to three different conditions of implementation: adherence priming (compensation model), which had a systematized focus on patients' individual GAD symptoms and how to compensate for these symptoms within the MAW-packet, and resource priming and supportive resource priming (capitalization model), which had systematized focuses on patients' strengths and abilities and how these strengths can be capitalized within the same packet. In the intention-to-treat population an outcome composite of primary and secondary symptoms-related self-report questionnaires was analyzed based on a hierarchical linear growth model from intake to 6-month follow-up assessment. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier: NCT02039193) and is closed to new participants. FINDINGS: From June 2012 to Nov. 2014, from 411 participants that were screened, 57 eligible participants were recruited and randomly assigned to three conditions. Forty-nine patients (86%) provided outcome data at post-assessment (14% dropout rate). All three conditions showed a highly significant reduction of symptoms over time. However, compared with the adherence priming condition, both resource priming conditions indicated faster symptom reduction. The observer ratings of a sub-sample of recorded videos (n = 100) showed that the therapists in the resource priming conditions conducted more strength-oriented interventions in comparison with the adherence priming condition. No patients died or attempted suicide. INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this is the first trial that focuses on capitalization and compensation models during the implementation of one prescriptive treatment packet for GAD. We have shown that GAD related symptoms were significantly faster reduced by the resource priming conditions, although the limitations of our study included a well-educated population. If replicated, our results suggest that therapists who implement a mental health treatment for GAD might profit from a systematized focus on capitalization models. FUNDING: Swiss Science National Foundation (SNSF-Nr. PZ00P1_136937/1) awarded to CF. KEYWORDS: Cognitive behavioral therapy; Evidence-based treatment; Implementation strategies; Randomized controlled trial

Shadow Profit Maximization and a Generalized Measure of Inefficiency

Determining the profit maximizing input-output bundle of a firm requires data on prices. This paper shows how endogenously determined shadow prices can be used in place of actual prices to obtain the optimal input-output bundle where the firm.s shadow profit is maximized. This approach amounts to an application of the Weak Axiom of Profit Maximization (WAPM) formulated by Varian (1984) based on shadow prices rather than actual prices. At these prices the shadow profit of a firm is zero. Thus, the maximum profit that could have been attained at some other input-output bundle is a measure of the inefficiency of the firm. Because the benchmark input-output bundle is always an observed bundle from the data, it can be determined without having to solve any elaborate programming problem. An empirical application to U.S. airlines data illustrates the proposed methodology.

Input Price Variation Across Locations and a Generalized Measure of Cost Efficiency

We propose a nonparametric model for global cost minimization as a framework for optimal allocation of a firm's output target across multiple locations, taking account of differences in input prices and technologies across locations. This should be useful for firms planning production sites within a country and for foreign direct investment decisions by multi-national firms. Two illustrative examples are included. The first example considers the production location decision of a manufacturing firm across a number of adjacent states of the US. In the other example, we consider the optimal allocation of US and Canadian automobile manufacturers across the two countries.

Bayesian generalized linear models for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests

With the recognition of the importance of evidence-based medicine, there is an emerging need for methods to systematically synthesize available data. Specifically, methods to provide accurate estimates of test characteristics for diagnostic tests are needed to help physicians make better clinical decisions. To provide more flexible approaches for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests, we developed three Bayesian generalized linear models. Two of these models, a bivariate normal and a binomial model, analyzed pairs of sensitivity and specificity values while incorporating the correlation between these two outcome variables. Noninformative independent uniform priors were used for the variance of sensitivity, specificity and correlation. We also applied an inverse Wishart prior to check the sensitivity of the results. The third model was a multinomial model where the test results were modeled as multinomial random variables. All three models can include specific imaging techniques as covariates in order to compare performance. Vague normal priors were assigned to the coefficients of the covariates. The computations were carried out using the 'Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling' implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We investigated the properties of the three proposed models through extensive simulation studies. We also applied these models to a previously published meta-analysis dataset on cervical cancer as well as to an unpublished melanoma dataset. In general, our findings show that the point estimates of sensitivity and specificity were consistent among Bayesian and frequentist bivariate normal and binomial models. However, in the simulation studies, the estimates of the correlation coefficient from Bayesian bivariate models are not as good as those obtained from frequentist estimation regardless of which prior distribution was used for the covariance matrix. The Bayesian multinomial model consistently underestimated the sensitivity and specificity regardless of the sample size and correlation coefficient. In conclusion, the Bayesian bivariate binomial model provides the most flexible framework for future applications because of its following strengths: (1) it facilitates direct comparison between different tests; (2) it captures the variability in both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously as well as the intercorrelation between the two; and (3) it can be directly applied to sparse data without ad hoc correction. ^

Detecting genetic and nutritional lung cancer risk factors related to folate metabolism using Bayesian generalized linear models

Complex diseases, such as cancer, are caused by various genetic and environmental factors, and their interactions. Joint analysis of these factors and their interactions would increase the power to detect risk factors but is statistically. Bayesian generalized linear models using student-t prior distributions on coefficients, is a novel method to simultaneously analyze genetic factors, environmental factors, and interactions. I performed simulation studies using three different disease models and demonstrated that the variable selection performance of Bayesian generalized linear models is comparable to that of Bayesian stochastic search variable selection, an improved method for variable selection when compared to standard methods. I further evaluated the variable selection performance of Bayesian generalized linear models using different numbers of candidate covariates and different sample sizes, and provided a guideline for required sample size to achieve a high power of variable selection using Bayesian generalize linear models, considering different scales of number of candidate covariates. ^ Polymorphisms in folate metabolism genes and nutritional factors have been previously associated with lung cancer risk. In this study, I simultaneously analyzed 115 tag SNPs in folate metabolism genes, 14 nutritional factors, and all possible genetic-nutritional interactions from 1239 lung cancer cases and 1692 controls using Bayesian generalized linear models stratified by never, former, and current smoking status. SNPs in MTRR were significantly associated with lung cancer risk across never, former, and current smokers. In never smokers, three SNPs in TYMS and three gene-nutrient interactions, including an interaction between SHMT1 and vitamin B12, an interaction between MTRR and total fat intake, and an interaction between MTR and alcohol use, were also identified as associated with lung cancer risk. These lung cancer risk factors are worthy of further investigation.^

Limpets counteract ocean acidification induced shell corrosion by thickening of aragonitic shell layers

Specimens of the patellogastropod limpet Patella caerulea were collected within (pHlow-shells) and outside (pHn-shells) a CO2 vent site at Ischia, Italy. Four pHlow-shells and four pHn-shells were sectioned transversally and scanned for polymorph distribution by means of confocal Raman microscopy. The pHlow-shells displayed a twofold increase in aragonite area fraction and size-normalised aragonite area. Size-normalised calcite area was halved in pHlow-shells. Taken together with the increased apical and the decreased flank size-normalised thickness of the pHlow-shells, these data led us to conclude that low-pH-exposed P. caerulea specimens counteract shell dissolution by enhanced shell production. This is different from normal elongation growth and proceeds through addition of aragonitic parts only, while the production of calcitic parts is confined to elongation growth. Therefore, aragonite cannot be regarded as a disadvantageous polymorph per se under ocean acidification conditions.

Variación de las características mecánicas de armaduras de alta ductilidad B500SD en función de su grado de corrosión / Mechanical properties variation of B500SD high ductility reinforcement regarding its corrosion degree

Los efectos de la corrosión sobre las armaduras se manifiestan por la pérdida de sección y la variación de las propiedades mecánicas relacionadas con la ductilidad. En este trabajo se han ensayado a tracción 96 barras de acero B500SD que previamente se han sometido a niveles variables de corrosión. Los resultados muestran que los alargamientos de las barras disminuyen y el cociente entre la tensión máxima y el límite elástico aumenta conforme el nivel de corrosión avanza. A partir del estudio del efecto de entalla y de la distinta constitución metalográfica del acero a nivel de sección debido a su procedimiento de fabricación se pueden explicar los fenómenos anteriores.

Corrosion behaviour of new duplex stainless steel reinforcements embedded in chloride contaminated concrete

The use of reinforcing stainless steels (SS) in concrete have proved to be one of the most effective methods to guarantee the passivity of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride contaminated environment. The present research studies the corrosion behaviour of a new duplex SS reinforcements with low nickel content (LND) (more economicaly compatible) is compared with the conventional austenitic AISI 304 SS and duplex AISI 2304 SS. Corrosion behaviour of ribbed SS reinforcements was studied in mortars with chloride content (0, 0.4, 2 and 4% Cl ⎯ ) using linear polarization resistance and potentiostatic pulses technique, Ecorr and Rp values were monitored over the exposure time. The obtained icorr data for the new duplex stainless steel LND no afforded passivity breakdown after one year exposure

A Generalized Regression Methodology for Bivariate Heteroscedastic Data

We present a methodology for reducing a straight line fitting regression problem to a Least Squares minimization one. This is accomplished through the definition of a measure on the data space that takes into account directional dependences of errors, and the use of polar descriptors for straight lines. This strategy improves the robustness by avoiding singularities and non-describable lines. The methodology is powerful enough to deal with non-normal bivariate heteroscedastic data error models, but can also supersede classical regression methods by making some particular assumptions. An implementation of the methodology for the normal bivariate case is developed and evaluated.

Parametric study of the expansive joint model for cracking of concrete due to rebar corrosion

Un modelo numérico llamado elemento junta expansiva fue programado para simular la expansión mecánica del óxido y estudiar la fisuración en el hormigón circundante. El elemento junta expansiva trabaja con elementos finitos con fisura cohesiva embebida adaptable para simular la fractura del hormigón según el modelo de fisura cohesiva. Se ha comprobado que el modelo reproduce correctamente el patrón de fisuración del hormigón que se obtiene en ensayos de corrosión acelerada. En este trabajo, se realiza un estudio paramétrico del elemento junta expansiva para establecer los límites de los parámetros constitutivos del óxido. Se simula una cierta expansión variando los valores de los parámetros del óxido y se estudian la apertura de fisura y las tensiones resultantes en el hormigón. Se determina el rango de valores para los que los resultados de las simulaciones son prácticamente iguales, con el menor número posible de iteraciones.

Pitting Corrosion in Austenitic Stainless Steel Water Tanks of Hotel Trains

The water storage tanks of hotel trains suffered pitting corrosion. To identify the cause, the tanks were subjected to a detailed metallographic study and the chemical composition of the austenitic stainless steels used in their construction was determined. Both the tank water and the corrosion products were further examined by physicochemical and microbiological testing. Corrosion was shown to be related to an incompatibility between the chloride content of the water and the base and filler metals of the tanks. These findings formed the basis of recommendations aimed at the prevention and control of corrosion in such tanks. Se han detectado problemas de corrosión por picaduras en los depósitos de agua de trenes hotel. Para identificar las causas se llevó a cabo un detallado estudio metalográfico así como de la composición química de los aceros inoxidables austeníticos utilizados en su construcción. También se realizaron estudios fisicoquímicos y microbiológicos de los productos de corrosión. Se ha encontrado que los problemas de corrosión están relacionados con la incompatibilidad entre el contenido en cloruros del agua y los metales base y de aporte de la soldadura de los tanques. En base a estos hallazgos se proponen una serie de recomendaciones encaminadas a la prevención y control de la corrosión de dichos depósitos.

Development of corrosion of steel bars embedded in mortar made with slag from secondary metallurgy

The aim of this work is to study the evolution of the corrosion rate of reinforcements embedded in mortar specimens that have been partly or fully replaced by the sand ladle furnace white slag. Prisms are manufactured mortar 6cm x 8cm x 2cm in which are embedded reinforcing steel bars of 6mm diameter B500SD. At the time of mixing were added varying amounts of chloride ion content by weight of cement (0%, 0.4%, 0.8%, 1.2%, 2%). The specimens were made totally or partially replacing the white slag, getting four different mixes depending on the degree of substitution. After curing the specimens for 28 days in moist chambers proceeded to dry up naturally. Here are gradually dampened by its conservation in a moist chamber, periodically measuring the corrosion rate of the bars using the technique of polarization curve. The results, in terms of corrosion current and corrosion potential, were compared with those obtained on standard samples, without replacement by slag aggregate. The analysis of results allows us to know, depending on the type of mortar used, the chloride threshold with the depassivation produced steel and the corrosion rates achieved in steels in the active state in terms of mortar moisture, obtained from qualitatively using gravimetric techniques. The results achieved to date support the conclusion that no significant differences in the behavior against corrosion induced by chloride ions, between the steel bars embedded in standard samples and the steel bars embedded in samples including with aggregates from slag. Both the chloride threshold resulting in the depassivation steel as the corrosion rate reached through the bars in an active state are very similar in both types of mortars when they have the same moisture content.