The probability model of peer-to-peer botnet propagation

Active Peer-to-Peer worms are great threat to the network security since they can propagate in automated ways and flood the Internet within a very short duration. Modeling a propagation process can help us to devise effective strategies against a worm's spread. This paper presents a study on modeling a worm's propagation probability in a P2P overlay network and proposes an optimized patch strategy for defenders. Firstly, we present a probability matrix model to construct the propagation of P2P worms. Our model involves three indispensible aspects for propagation: infected state, vulnerability distribution and patch strategy. Based on a fully connected graph, our comprehensive model is highly suited for real world cases like Code Red II. Finally, by inspecting the propagation procedure, we propose four basic tactics for defense of P2P botnets. The rationale is exposed by our simulated experiments and the results show these tactics are of effective and have considerable worth in being applied in real-world networks.

Efficient subwindow search with submodular score functions

Subwindow search aims to find the optimal subimage which maximizes the score function of an object to be detected. After the development of the branch and bound (B&B) method called Efficient Subwindow Search (ESS), several algorithms (IESS [2], AESS [2], ARCS [3]) have been proposed to improve the performance of ESS. For nn images, IESS's time complexity is bounded by O(n³) which is better than ESS, but only applicable to linear score functions. Other work shows that Monge properties can hold in subwindow search and can be used to speed up the search to O(n³), but only applies to certain types of score functions. In this paper we explore the connection between submodular functions and the Monge property, and prove that sub-modular score functions can be used to achieve O(n³) time complexity for object detection. The time complexity can be further improved to be sub-cubic by applying B&B methods on row interval only, when the score function has a multivariate submodular bound function. Conditions for sub-modularity of common non-linear score functions and multivariate submodularity of their bound functions are also provided, and experiments are provided to compare the proposed approach against ESS and ARCS for object detection with some nonlinear score functions.

Performance score variation between days at Australian national and Olympic women's artistic gymnastics competition

We determined the inter-day variability in elite-standard women's artistic gymnastics competition scores. National (50 gymnasts for up to three days) and Olympic (24 gymnasts for up to five days) competition scores published in the public domain (‘Giant poster pull-out’, 2010; Gymnastics Australia, 2008) were evaluated using three statistical measures. Analyses of the inter-day differences in the mean scores as a percentage (MDiff%), coefficient of variation percentages for the mean score across both days (CV%), and Pearson correlation coefficients for the inter-day score (r) were interpreted using thresholds from trivial to large. National-class gymnasts' two-day performance variation was trivial for vault, small for floor and beam, and moderate for bars. When senior gymnasts competed for a third day the performance variation increased to moderate for vault. Across five days of Olympic competition there were trivial (e.g. CV%: vault = 0.8) to small (e.g. CV%: bars = 2.0) variations in performances between days on all apparatus. Olympians' performance score consistency is superior to senior, national-class competitors. The performance score consistency required for gymnasts who aspire to participate at the Olympics as a top-24 competitor is better than 3%.

Gaze behavior among experts and trainees during optic disc examination : does how we look affect what we see?

Purpose. The authors compared the visual gaze behaviors of glaucoma subspecialists with those of ophthalmology trainees during optic disc and retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) examination.

Methods. Seven glaucoma subspecialists and 23 ophthalmology trainees participated in the project. Participants were shown eight glaucomatous optic disc images with varied morphology. Eye movements during examination of the optic disc photographs were tracked. For each disc image, graders were asked to assign a presumptive diagnosis for probability of glaucoma. There was no time restriction.

Results. Overall, trainees spent more time looking at disc images than glaucoma subspecialists (21.3 [13.9–37.7] vs. 16.6 [12.7–19.7]) seconds; median [interquartile range (IQR)], respectively; P < 0.01) and had no systematic patterns of gaze behavior, and gaze behavior was unaltered by disc morphology or topographic cues of pathology. Experienced viewers demonstrated more systematic and ordered gaze behavior patterns and spent longer times observing areas with the greatest likelihood of pathology (superior and inferior poles of the optic nerve head and adjacent RNFL) compared with the trainees. For discs with focal pathology, the proportion of total time spent examining definite areas of pathology was 28.9% (22.4%–33.6%) for glaucoma subspecialists and 13.5% (12.2%–19.2%) for trainees (median [IQR]; P < 0.05). Furthermore, experts adapted their viewing habits according to disc morphology.

Conclusions. Glaucoma subspecialists adopt systematic gaze behavior when examining the optic nerve and RNFL, whereas trainees do not. It remains to be elucidated whether incorporating systematic viewing behavior of the optic disc and RNFL into teaching programs for trainees may expedite their acquisition of accurate and efficient glaucoma diagnosis skills.

Glaucoma and on-road driving performance

PURPOSE. To investigate the on-road driving performance of patients with glaucoma.

METHODS. The sample comprised 20 patients with glaucoma and 20 subjects with normal vision, all licensed drivers, matched for age and sex. Driving performance was tested over a 10-km route incorporating 55 standardized maneuvers and skills through residential and business districts of Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. Testing was conducted by a professional driving instructor and assessed by an occupational therapist certified in driver rehabilitation, masked to participant group membership and level of vision. Main outcome measures were total number of satisfactory maneuvers and skills, overall rating, and incidence of at-fault critical interventions (application of the dual brake and/or steering override by the driving instructor to prevent a potentially unsafe maneuver). Measures of visual function included visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, and visual fields (Humphrey Field Analyzer; Carl Zeiss Meditec, Inc., Dublin, CA; mean deviation [MD] and binocular Esterman points).

RESULTS. There was no significant difference between patients with glaucoma (mean MD = −1.7 dB [SD 2.2] and −6.5 dB [SD 4.9], better and worse eyes, respectively) and control subjects in total satisfactory maneuvers and skills (P = 0.65), or overall rating (P = 0.60). However, 12 (60%) patients with glaucoma had one or more at-fault critical interventions, compared with 4 (20%) control subjects (odds ratio = 6.00, 95% CI, 1.46–24.69; higher still after adjustment for age, sex, medications and driving exposure), the predominant reason being failure to see and yield to a pedestrian. In the glaucoma group, worse-eye MD was associated with the overall rating of driving (r = 0.66, P = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS. This sample of patients with glaucoma with slight to moderate visual field impairment performed many real-world driving maneuvers safely. However, they were six times as likely as subjects with normal vision to have a driving instructor intervene for reasons suggesting difficulty with detection of peripheral obstacles and hazards and reaction to unexpected events.

Risk of falls and motor vehicle collisions in glaucoma

PURPOSE. To investigate the risk of falls and motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) in patients with glaucoma.

METHODS. The sample comprised 48 patients with glaucoma (mean visual field mean deviation [MD] in the better eye = −3.9 dB; 5.1 dB SD) and 47 age-matched normal control subjects, who were recruited from a university-based hospital eye care clinic and are enrolled in an ongoing prospective study of risk factors for falls, risk factors for MVCs, and on-road driving performance in glaucoma. Main outcome measures at baseline were previous self-reported falls and MVCs, and police-reported MVCs. Demographic and medical data were obtained. In addition, functional independence in daily living, physical activity level and balance were assessed. Clinical vision measures included visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, standard automated perimetry, useful field of view (UFOV), and stereopsis. Analyses of falls and MVCs were adjusted to account for the possible confounding effects of demographic characteristics, medications, and visual field impairment. MVC analyses were also adjusted for kilometers driven per week.

RESULTS. There were no significant differences between patients with glaucoma and control subjects with respect to number of systemic medical conditions, body mass index, functional independence, and physical activity level (P > 0.10). At baseline, 40 (83%) patients with glaucoma and 44 (94%) control subjects were driving. Compared with control subjects, patients with glaucoma were over three times more likely to have fallen in the previous year (odds ratio [OR]adjusted = 3.71; 95% CI, 1.14–12.05), over six times more likely to have been involved in one or more MVCs in the previous 5 years (ORadjusted = 6.62; 95% CI, 1.40–31.23), and more likely to have been at fault (ORadjusted = 12.44; 95% CI, 1.08–143.99). The strongest risk factor for MVCs in patients with glaucoma was impaired UFOV selective attention (ORadjusted = 10.29; 95% CI, 1.10–96.62; for selective attention >350 ms compared with ≤350 ms).

CONCLUSIONS. There is an increased risk of falls and MVCs in patients with glaucoma.

Glaucomatous visual field progression with frequency-doubling technology and standard automated perimetry in a longitudinal prospective study

PURPOSE. To compare frequency-doubling technology (FDT) perimetry with standard automated perimetry (SAP) for detecting glaucomatous visual field progression in a longitudinal prospective study.

METHODS. One eye of patients with open-angle glaucoma was tested every 6 months with both FDT and SAP. A minimum of 6 examinations with each perimetric technique was required for inclusion. Visual field progression was determined by two methods: glaucoma change probability (GCP) analysis and linear regression analysis (LRA). For GCP, several criteria for progression were used. The number of locations required to classify progression with FDT compared with SAP, respectively, was 1:2 (least conservative), 1:3, 2:3, 2:4, 2:6, 2:7, 3:6, 3:7, and 3:10 (most conservative). The number of consecutive examinations required to confirm progression was 2-of-3, 2-of-2, and 3-of-3. For LRA, the progression criterion was any significant decline in mean threshold sensitivity over time in each of the following three visual field subdivisions: (1) all test locations, (2) locations in the central 10° and the superior and inferior hemifields, and (3) locations in each quadrant. Using these criteria, the proportion of patients classified as showing progression with each perimetric technique was calculated and, in the case of progression with both, the differences in time to progression were determined.

RESULTS. Sixty-five patients were followed for a median of 3.5 years (median number of examinations, 9). For the least conservative GCP criterion, 32 (49%) patients were found to have progressing visual fields with FDT and 32 (49%) patients with SAP. Only 16 (25%) patients showed progression with both methods, and in most of those patients, FDT identified progression before SAP (median, 12 months earlier). The majority of GCP progression criteria (15/27), classified more patients as showing progression with FDT than with SAP. Contrary to this, more patients showed progression with SAP than FDT, when analysed with LRA; e.g., using quadrant LRA 20 (31%) patients showed progression with FDT, 23 (35%) with SAP, and only 10 (15%) with both.

CONCLUSIONS. FDT perimetry detected glaucomatous visual field progression. However, the proportion of patients who showed progression with both FDT and SAP was small, possibly indicating that the two techniques identify different subgroups of patients. Using GCP, more patients showed progression with FDT than with SAP, yet the opposite occurred using LRA. As there is no independent qualifier of progression, FDT and SAP progression rates vary depending on the method of analysis and the criterion used.

Whole grain consumption is inversely associated with BMI Z-score in rural school-aged children

Objective To examine the relationship between intake of whole grains and BMI Z-score in rural children.

Design General linear models and logistic regression were used to examine the cross-sectional associations between whole grain intake and BMI Z-score, prevalence and odds ratios of overweight and obesity. Dietary intake was assessed using the Block Food Screener for ages 2–17 years. Children were classified into three categories according to servings of whole grain intake: <1·0 serving/d, 1·0–1·5 servings/d and >1·5 servings/d.

Setting The CHANGE (Creating Healthy, Active and Nurturing Growing-up Environments) study, an obesity prevention intervention in elementary schools in eight rural US communities in California, Mississippi, Kentucky and South Carolina.

Subjects Seven hundred and ninety-two children attending 3rd–6th grade.

Results After adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, physical activity and state of residence, whole grain intake was inversely associated with BMI Z-score (0·90 v. 0·61 in the lowest v. the highest whole grain intake category; P trend = 0·01). Children who consumed >1·5 servings of whole grains/d had a 40 % lower risk of being obese (OR = 0·60; 95 % CI 0·38, 0·95, P = 0·02) compared with children who consumed <1·0 serving/d. Further adjustment for potential dietary predictors of body weight (fruit, vegetable and dairy intakes) did not change the observed associations.

Conclusions Increasing the intake of whole grains as part of an overall healthy lifestyle may be beneficial for children to achieve and maintain a healthy weight.

Contests with the probability of a draw : a stochastic foundation

This article proposes a stochastic foundation for the contest success function (CSF for short) with a richer structure on the set of possible outcomes of the contest. Specifically, the analysis allows for the possibility of a draw, so that no contestant can claim a victory over all other players. Under plausible conditions, this article not only discovers new functional forms of CSFs, but also shows the newly derived CSFs have very different properties in equilibrium to those of conventional CSFs. For example, in contrast to the CSFs discussed in the contest literature, which always generate a unique pure strategy Nash equilibrium, the newly discovered CSFs admit the possibility of multiple equilibria.

Probability distributions of number of children and maternal age at various order births using age-specific fertility rates by birth order

In this study, a simple analytical framework to find the probability distributions of number of children and maternal age at various order births by making use of data on age-specific fertility rates by birth order was proposed. The proposed framework is applicable to both the period and cohort fertility schedules. The most appealing point of the proposed framework is that it does not require stringent assumptions. The proposed framework has been applied to the cohort birth order-specific fertility schedules of India and its different regions and period birth order-specific fertility schedules, including the United States of America, Russia, and the Netherlands, to demonstrate its usefulness.

Propensity score matching and variations on the balancing test

Balancing tests are diagnostics designed for use with propensity score methods, a widely used non-experimental approach in the evaluation literature. Such tests provide useful information on whether plausible counterfactuals have been created. Currently, multiple balancing tests exist in the literature but it is unclear which is the most useful. This article highlights the poor size properties of commonly employed balancing tests and attempts to shed some light on the link between the results of balancing tests and bias of the evaluation estimator. The simulation results suggest that in scenarios where the conditional independence assumption holds, a permutation version of the balancing test described in Dehejia and Wahba (Rev Econ Stat 84:151–161, 2002) can be useful in applied study. The proposed test has good size properties. In addition, the test appears to have good power for detecting a misspecification in the link function and some power for detecting an omission of relevant non-linear terms involving variables that are included at a lower order.