931 resultados para Failure Probability
Resumo:
This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model the problem of power supply voltage fluctuations. Error probability calculations are shown for some 90-nm technology digital circuits.The analysis here considered gives the timing violation error probability as a new design quality factor in front of conventional techniques that assume the full perfection of the circuit. The evaluation of the error bound can be useful for new design paradigms where retry and self-recoveringtechniques are being applied to the design of high performance processors. The method here described allows to evaluate the performance of these techniques by means of calculating the expected error probability in terms of power supply distribution quality.
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Captopril (SQ 14 225), an orally active inhibitor of angiotensin-converting enzyme, was given to 7 hypertensive patients with chronic renal failure whose plasma-creatinine ranged from 1.5--7.4 mg/dl; whose plasma-renin activity was normal; whose hypertension was not controlled by previous therapy consisting in 5 patients of three or more antihypertensive drugs; and whose blood-pressures averaged 176/111 +/- 11/3 mm Hg. Inhibition of converting enzyme by oral captopril, 200 mg twice daily, reduced blood-pressure to 156/100 +/- 9/5 mm Hg. 5 patients needed additional treatment by frusemide 40--250 mg/day orally. With this combined regimen the blood-pressure of all patients averaged 126/85 +/- 4/3 mm Hg after 8 +/- 2 weeks of captopril. The drug was well tolerated. These results suggest that inhibition of angiotensin-converting enzyme with or without sodium depletion is an efficient treatment for hypertension associated with chronic renal failure. It appears that although renin levels in patients with this condition may be "normal", they are inappropriate in relation to the subtle degree of sodium retention that occurs with this disorder.
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Unless effective preventive strategies are implemented, aging of the population will result in a significant worsening of the heart failure (HF) epidemic. Few data exist on whether baseline electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities can refine risk prediction for HF. METHODS: We examined a prospective cohort of 2,915 participants aged 70 to 79 years without preexisting HF, enrolled between April 1997 and June 1998 in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study. Minnesota Code was used to define major and minor ECG abnormalities at baseline and at year 4 follow-up. Using Cox models, we assessed (1) the association between ECG abnormalities and incident HF and (2) the incremental value of adding ECG to the Health ABC HF Risk Score using the net reclassification index. RESULTS: At baseline, 380 participants (13.0%) had minor, and 620 (21.3%) had major ECG abnormalities. During a median follow-up of 11.4 years, 485 participants (16.6%) developed incident HF. After adjusting for the Health ABC HF Risk Score variables, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.27 (95% CI 0.96-1.68) for minor and 1.99 (95% CI 1.61-2.44) for major ECG abnormalities. At year 4, 263 participants developed new and 549 had persistent abnormalities; both were associated with increased subsequent HF risk (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.38-2.72 for new and HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.82-3.02 for persistent ECG abnormalities). Baseline ECG correctly reclassified 10.5% of patients with HF events, 0.8% of those without HF events, and 1.4% of the overall population. The net reclassification index across the Health ABC HF risk categories was 0.11 (95% CI 0.03-0.19). CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults, baseline and new ECG abnormalities are independently associated with increased risk of HF. The contribution of ECG screening for targeted prevention of HF should be evaluated in clinical trials.
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AbstractMyotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1), also known as Steinert's disease, is an inherited autosomal dominant disease. DM1 is characterized by myotonia, muscular weakness and atrophy, but it has a multisystemic phenotype. The genetic basis of the disease is the abnormal expansion of CTG repeats in the 3' untranslated region of the DM protein kinase (DMPK) gene on chromosome 19. The size of the expansion correlates to the severity of the disease and the age of onset.Respiratory problems have long been recognized to be a major feature of the disease and are the main factor contributing to mortality ; however the mechanisms are only partly known. The aim of our study is to investigate whether respiratory failure results only from the involvement of the dystrophic process at the level of the respiratory muscles or comes also from abnormalities in the neuronal network that generates and controls the respiratory rhythm. The generation of valid transgenic mice displaying the human DM1 phenotype by the group of Dr. Gourdon provided us a useful tool to analyze the brain stem respiratory neurons, spinal phrenic motoneurons and phrenic nerves. We examined therefore these structures in transgenic mice carrying 350-500 CTGs and displaying a mild form of the disease (DM1 mice). The morphological and morphometric analysis of diaphragm muscle sections revealed a denervation of the end-plates (EPs), characterized by a decrease in size and shape complexity of EPs and a reduction in the density of acetylcholine receptors (AChRs). Also a strong and significant reduction in the number of phrenic unmyelinated fibers was detected, but not in the myelinated fibers. In addition, no pathological changes were detected in the cervical motoneurons and medullary respiratory centers (Panaite et al., 2008). These results suggest that the breathing rhythm is probably not affected in mice expressing a mild form of DM1, but rather the transmission of action potentials at the level of diaphragm NMJs is deficient.Because size of the mutation increases over generations, new transgenic mice were obtained from the mice with 350-500 CTGs, resulting from a large increase of CTG repeat in successive generations, these mice carry more than 1300 CTGs (DMSXL) and display a severe DM1 phenotype (Gomes-Pereira et al., 2007). Before we study the mechanism underlying the respiratory failure in DMSXL mice, we analyzed the peripheral nervous system (PNS) in these mice by electrophysiological, histological and morphometric methods. Our results provide strong evidence that DMSXL mice have motor neuropathy (Panaite et al., 2010, submitted). Therefore the DMSXL mice expressing severe DM1 features represent for us a good tool to investigate, in the future, the physiological, structural and molecular alterations underlying respiratory failure in DM1. Understanding the mechanism of respiratory deficiency will help to better target the therapy of these problems in DM1 patients. In addition our results may, in the future, orientate pharmaceutical and clinical research towards possible development of therapy against respiratory deficits associated with the DM1.RésuméLa dystrophic myotonique type 1 (DM1), aussi dénommée maladie de Steinert, est une maladie héréditaire autosomique dominante. Elle est caractérisée par une myotonie, une faiblesse musculaire avec atrophie et se manifeste aussi par un phénotype multisystémique. La base génétique de la maladie est une expansion anormale de répétitions CTG dans une région non traduite en 3' du gène de la DM protéine kinase (DMPK) sur le chromosome 19. La taille de l'expansion est corrélée avec la sévérité et l'âge d'apparition de DM1.Bien que les problèmes respiratoires soient reconnus depuis longtemps comme une complication de la maladie et soient le principal facteur contribuant à la mortalité, les mécanismes en sont partiellement connus. Le but de notre étude est d'examiner si l'insuffisance respiratoire de la DM1 est dû au processus dystrophique au niveau des muscles respiratoires ou si elle est entraînée aussi par des anomalies dans le réseau neuronal qui génère et contrôle le rythme respiratoire. La production par le groupe du Dr. Gourdon de souris transgéniques de DM1, manifestant le phénotype de DM1 humaine, nous a fourni un outil pour analyser les nerfs phréniques, les neurones des centres respiratoires du tronc cérébral et les motoneurones phréniques. Par conséquence, nous avons examiné ces structures chez des souris transgéniques portant 350-500 CTG et affichant une forme légère de la maladie (souris DM1). L'analyse morphologique et morphométrique des sections du diaphragme a révélé une dénervation des plaques motrices et une diminution de la taille et de la complexité de la membrane postsynaptîque, ainsi qu'une réduction de la densité des récepteurs à l'acétylcholine. Nous avons aussi détecté une réduction significative du nombre de fibres nerveuses non myélinisées mais pas des fibres myélinisées. Par ailleurs, aucun changement pathologique n'a été détecté pour les neurones moteurs médullaires cervicaux et centres respiratoires du tronc cérébral (Panaite et al., 2008). Ces résultats suggèrent que le iythme respiratoire n'est probablement pas affecté chez les souris manifestant une forme légère du DM1, mais plutôt que la transmission des potentiels d'action au niveau des plaques motrices du diaphragme est déficiente.Comme la taille du mutation augmente au fil des générations, de nouvelles souris transgéniques ont été générés par le groupe Gourdon; ces souris ont plus de 1300 CTG (DMSXL) et manifestent un phénotype sévère du DM1 (Gomes-Pereira et al., 2007). Avant d'étudier le mécanisme sous-jacent de l'insuffisance respiratoire chez les souris DMSXL, nous avons analysé le système nerveux périphérique chez ces souris par des méthodes électrophysiologiques, histologiques et morphométriques. Nos résultats fournissent des preuves solides que les souris DMSXL manifestent une neuropathie motrice (Panaite et al., 2010, soumis). Par conséquent, les souris DMSXL représentent pour nous un bon outil pour étudier, à l'avenir, les modifications physiologiques, morphologiques et moléculaires qui sous-tendent l'insuffisance respiratoire du DM1. La connaissance du mécanisme de déficience respiratoire en DM1 aidera à mieux cibler le traitement de ces problèmes aux patients. De plus, nos résultats pourront, à l'avenir, orienter la recherche pharmaceutique et clinique vers le développement de thérapie contre le déficit respiratoire associé à DM1.
Resumo:
Myotonic dystrophy (DM1) is a multisystemic disease caused by an expansion of CTG repeats in the region of DMPK, the gene encoding DM protein kinase. The severity of muscle disability in DM1 correlates with the size of CTG expansion. As respiratory failure is one of the main causes of death in DM1, we investigated the correlation between respiratory impairment and size of the (CTG)n repeat in DM1 animal models. Using pressure plethysmography the respiratory function was assessed in control and transgenic mice carrying either 600 (DM600) or >1300 CTG repeats (DMSXL). The statistical analysis of respiratory parameters revealed that both DM1 transgenic mice sub-lines show respiratory impairment compared to control mice. In addition, there is no significant difference in breathing functions between the DM600 and DMSXL mice. In conclusion, these results indicate that respiratory impairment is present in both transgenic mice sub-lines, but the severity of respiratory failure is not related to the size of the (CTG)n expansion.
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This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.
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Theultimate goal of any research in the mechanism/kinematic/design area may be called predictive design, ie the optimisation of mechanism proportions in the design stage without requiring extensive life and wear testing. This is an ambitious goal and can be realised through development and refinement of numerical (computational) technology in order to facilitate the design analysis and optimisation of complex mechanisms, mechanical components and systems. As a part of the systematic design methodology this thesis concentrates on kinematic synthesis (kinematic design and analysis) methods in the mechanism synthesis process. The main task of kinematic design is to find all possible solutions in the form of structural parameters to accomplish the desired requirements of motion. Main formulations of kinematic design can be broadly divided to exact synthesis and approximate synthesis formulations. The exact synthesis formulation is based in solving n linear or nonlinear equations in n variables and the solutions for the problem areget by adopting closed form classical or modern algebraic solution methods or using numerical solution methods based on the polynomial continuation or homotopy. The approximate synthesis formulations is based on minimising the approximation error by direct optimisation The main drawbacks of exact synthesis formulationare: (ia) limitations of number of design specifications and (iia) failure in handling design constraints- especially inequality constraints. The main drawbacks of approximate synthesis formulations are: (ib) it is difficult to choose a proper initial linkage and (iib) it is hard to find more than one solution. Recentformulations in solving the approximate synthesis problem adopts polynomial continuation providing several solutions, but it can not handle inequality const-raints. Based on the practical design needs the mixed exact-approximate position synthesis with two exact and an unlimited number of approximate positions has also been developed. The solutions space is presented as a ground pivot map but thepole between the exact positions cannot be selected as a ground pivot. In this thesis the exact synthesis problem of planar mechanism is solved by generating all possible solutions for the optimisation process ¿ including solutions in positive dimensional solution sets - within inequality constraints of structural parameters. Through the literature research it is first shown that the algebraic and numerical solution methods ¿ used in the research area of computational kinematics ¿ are capable of solving non-parametric algebraic systems of n equations inn variables and cannot handle the singularities associated with positive-dimensional solution sets. In this thesis the problem of positive-dimensional solutionsets is solved adopting the main principles from mathematical research area of algebraic geometry in solving parametric ( in the mathematical sense that all parameter values are considered ¿ including the degenerate cases ¿ for which the system is solvable ) algebraic systems of n equations and at least n+1 variables.Adopting the developed solution method in solving the dyadic equations in direct polynomial form in two- to three-precision-points it has been algebraically proved and numerically demonstrated that the map of the ground pivots is ambiguousand that the singularities associated with positive-dimensional solution sets can be solved. The positive-dimensional solution sets associated with the poles might contain physically meaningful solutions in the form of optimal defectfree mechanisms. Traditionally the mechanism optimisation of hydraulically driven boommechanisms is done at early state of the design process. This will result in optimal component design rather than optimal system level design. Modern mechanismoptimisation at system level demands integration of kinematic design methods with mechanical system simulation techniques. In this thesis a new kinematic design method for hydraulically driven boom mechanism is developed and integrated in mechanical system simulation techniques. The developed kinematic design method is based on the combinations of two-precision-point formulation and on optimisation ( with mathematical programming techniques or adopting optimisation methods based on probability and statistics ) of substructures using calculated criteria from the system level response of multidegree-of-freedom mechanisms. Eg. by adopting the mixed exact-approximate position synthesis in direct optimisation (using mathematical programming techniques) with two exact positions and an unlimitednumber of approximate positions the drawbacks of (ia)-(iib) has been cancelled.The design principles of the developed method are based on the design-tree -approach of the mechanical systems and the design method ¿ in principle ¿ is capable of capturing the interrelationship between kinematic and dynamic synthesis simultaneously when the developed kinematic design method is integrated with the mechanical system simulation techniques.
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Background and aims: Few studies have examined whether subjective experiences during first cannabis use are related to other illicit drug (OID) use. This study investigated this topic. Methods: Baseline data from a representative sample of young Swiss men was obtained from an ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (N ¼ 5753). Logistic regressions were performed to examine the relationships between cannabis use and of subjective experiences during first cannabis use with 15 OID. Results: Positive experiences increased the likelihood of using hallucinogens (hallucinogens, salvia divinorum, spice; p50.015), stimulants (speed, ecstasy, cocaine, amphetamines/methamphetamines; p50.006) and also poppers, research chemicals, GHB/GBL, and crystal meth (p50.049). Sniffed drugs (poppers, solvents for sniffing) and ''hard'' drugs (heroin, ketamine, research chemicals, GHB/GBL and crystal meth) were more likely to be used by participants who experienced negative feelings on first use of cannabis (p50.034). Conclusion: Subjective feelings seemed to amplify the association of cannabis with OID. The risk increased for drugs with effects resembling feelings experienced on first cannabis use. Negative experiences should also be a concern, as they were associated with increased risk of using the ''hardest'' illicit drugs.
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BACKGROUND: Recurrent hepatitis C virus infection after liver transplantation is associated with reduced graft and patient survival. Re-transplantation for graft failure due to recurrent hepatitis C is controversial and not performed in all centers. CASE PRESENTATION: We describe a 54-year-old patient with hepatitis C virus genotype 1b infection and a null response to pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin who developed decompensated graft cirrhosis 6 years after a first liver transplantation. Treatment with sofosbuvir and ribavirin allowed for rapid negativation of serum HCV RNA and was well tolerated despite advanced liver and moderate renal dysfunction. Therapeutic drug monitoring did not reveal any clinically significant drug-drug interactions. Despite virological response, the patient remained severely decompensated and re-transplantation was performed after 46 days of undetectable serum HCV RNA. The patient is doing well 12 months after his second liver transplantation and remains free of hepatitis C virus. CONCLUSIONS: The use of directly acting antivirals may allow for successful liver re-transplantation for recipients who remain decompensated despite virological response and is likely to improve the outcome of liver re-transplantation for end-stage recurrent hepatitis C.
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The aim of the present study was to determine the impact of trabecular bone score on the probability of fracture above that provided by the clinical risk factors utilized in FRAX. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 33,352 women aged 40-99 years from the province of Manitoba, Canada, with baseline measurements of lumbar spine trabecular bone score (TBS) and FRAX risk variables. The analysis was cohort-specific rather than based on the Canadian version of FRAX. The associations between trabecular bone score, the FRAX risk factors and the risk of fracture or death were examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model and used to calculate 10-year probabilities of fracture with and without TBS and to derive an algorithm to adjust fracture probability to take account of the independent contribution of TBS to fracture and mortality risk. During a mean follow-up of 4.7 years, 1754 women died and 1639 sustained one or more major osteoporotic fractures excluding hip fracture and 306 women sustained one or more hip fracture. When fully adjusted for FRAX risk variables, TBS remained a statistically significant predictor of major osteoporotic fractures excluding hip fracture (HR/SD 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.24), death (HR/SD 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26) and hip fracture (HR/SD 1.23, 95 % CI 1.09-1.38). Models adjusting major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture probability were derived, accounting for age and trabecular bone score with death considered as a competing event. Lumbar spine texture analysis using TBS is a risk factor for osteoporotic fracture and a risk factor for death. The predictive ability of TBS is independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD. Adjustment of fracture probability to take account of the independent contribution of TBS to fracture and mortality risk requires validation in independent cohorts.