Analysing Conjoint Analysis Data by a Random Coefficient Regression Model

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62J12, 62K15, 91B42, 62H99.

A Note on the Extinction Problem for Controlled Multitype Branching Processes

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80, 60J10.

Time to Extinction in Branching Processes and its Application in Epidemiology

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60J80; Secondary 92D30.

Some Coefficient Estimates for Polynomials on the Unit Interval

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 26C05, 26C10, 30A12, 30D15, 42A05, 42C05.

New Coefficient Conditions for Functions Starlike with Respect to Symmetric Points

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 30C45, secondary 30C80.

Identification of a time-dependent bio-heat blood perfusion coefficient

In the paper the identification of the time-dependent blood perfusion coefficient is formulated as an inverse problem. The bio-heat conduction problem is transformed into the classical heat conduction problem. Then the transformed inverse problem is solved using the method of fundamental solutions together with the Tikhonov regularization. Some numerical results are presented in order to demonstrate the accuracy and the stability of the proposed meshless numerical algorithm.

Thermal effects on the photoelastic coefficient of polymer optical fibers

We measure the radial profile of the photoelastic coefficient C(r) in single-mode polymer optical fibers (POFs), and we determine the evolution of C(r) after annealing the fibers at temperatures from 40°C to 80°C. We demonstrate that C(r) in the fibers drawn from a preform without specific thermal pre-treatment changes and converges to values between 1.2 and 1.6×10-12 Pa-1 following annealing at 80°C. The annealed fibers display a smoothened radial profile of C(r) and a lowered residual birefringence. In contrast, the mean value of C(r) of the fiber drawn from a preform that has been pre-annealed remains constant after our annealing process and is significantly higher, i.e., 4×10-12 Pa-1. The annealing process decreases the residual birefringence to a lower extent as well. These measurements indicate the impact of annealing on the thermal stability of the photoelastic coefficient of POFs, which is an essential characteristic in view of developing POF-based thermomechanical sensors.

The star formation and extinction coevolution of UV-selected galaxies over 0.05 < z < 1.2

We use a new stacking technique to obtain mean mid-IR and far-IR to far-UV flux ratios over the rest-frame near-UV, near-IR color-magnitude diagram. We employ COMBO-17 redshifts and COMBO-17 optical, GALEX far- and near-UV, and Spitzer IRAC and MIPS mid-IR photometry. This technique permits us to probe the infrared excess (IRX), the ratio of far-IR to far-UV luminosity, and the specific star formation rate (SSFR) and their coevolution over 2 orders of magnitude of stellar mass and over redshift 0.1 < z < 1.2. We find that the SSFR and the characteristic mass (Script M_0) above which the SSFR drops increase with redshift (downsizing). At any given epoch, the IRX is an increasing function of mass up to Script M_0. Above this mass the IRX falls, suggesting gas exhaustion. In a given mass bin below Script M_0, the IRX increases with time in a fashion consistent with enrichment. We interpret these trends using a simple model with a Schmidt-Kennicutt law and extinction that tracks gas density and enrichment. We find that the average IRX and SSFR follow a galaxy age parameter ξ, which is determined mainly by the galaxy mass and time since formation. We conclude that blue-sequence galaxies have properties which show simple, systematic trends with mass and time such as the steady buildup of heavy elements in the interstellar media of evolving galaxies and the exhaustion of gas in galaxies that are evolving off the blue sequence. The IRX represents a tool for selecting galaxies at various stages of evolution.

Measurements of stress-optic coefficient and Young's modulus in PMMA fibers drawn under different conditions

We have systematically measured the differential stress-optic coefficient, ΔC, and Young's modulus, E, in a number of PMMA fibers drawn with different stress, ranging from 2 up to 27 MPa. Effect of temperature annealing on those parameters was also investigated. ΔC was determined in transverse illumination by measuring the dependence of birefringence on additional axial stress applied to the fiber. Our results show that ΔC in PMMA fibers has a negative sign and ranges from -4.5 to -1.5×10-12 Pa -1 depending on the drawing stress. Increase of the drawing stress results in greater initial fiber birefringence and lower ΔC. The dependence of ΔC and initial birefringence upon drawing stress is nonlinear and gradually saturates for higher drawing stress. Moreover, we find that ΔC is linearly proportional to initial fiber birefringence and that annealing the fiber has no impact on the slope of this dependence. On the other hand, no clear dependence was observed between the fiber drawing stress and the Young's modulus of the fibers as measured using microscopic digital image correlation with the fibers tensioned using an Instron tension tester. © 2010 SPIE.

Using Bird Distributions to Assess Extinction Risk and Identify Conservation Priorities in Biodiversity Hotspots

Habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation threaten the World’s ecosystems and species. These, and other threats, will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Due to a limited budget for conservation, we are forced to prioritize a few areas over others. These places are selected based on their uniqueness and vulnerability. One of the most famous examples is the biodiversity hotspots: areas where large quantities of endemic species meet alarming rates of habitat loss. Most of these places are in the tropics, where species have smaller ranges, diversity is higher, and ecosystems are most threatened.

Species distributions are useful to understand ecological theory and evaluate extinction risk. Small-ranged species, or those endemic to one place, are more vulnerable to extinction than widely distributed species. However, current range maps often overestimate the distribution of species, including areas that are not within the suitable elevation or habitat for a species. Consequently, assessment of extinction risk using these maps could underestimate vulnerability.

In order to be effective in our quest to conserve the World’s most important places we must: 1) Translate global and national priorities into practical local actions, 2) Find synergies between biodiversity conservation and human welfare, 3) Evaluate the different dimensions of threats, in order to design effective conservation measures and prepare for future threats, and 4) Improve the methods used to evaluate species’ extinction risk and prioritize areas for conservation. The purpose of this dissertation is to address these points in Colombia and other global biodiversity hotspots.

In Chapter 2, I identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities in Colombia. I used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would protect the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia (endemic and small-ranged species). The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species—100 in total—but the lowest densities of national parks. I then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18–100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, I made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes.

For Chapter 3, I identified areas where bird conservation met ecosystem service protection in the Central Andes of Colombia. Inspired by the November 11th (2011) landslide event near Manizales, and the current poor results of Colombia’s Article 111 of Law 99 of 1993 as a conservation measure in this country, I set out to prioritize conservation and restoration areas where landslide prevention would complement bird conservation in the Central Andes. This area is one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, but also one of the most threatened. Using the case of the Rio Blanco Reserve, near Manizales, I identified areas for conservation where endemic and small-range bird diversity was high, and where landslide risk was also high. I further prioritized restoration areas by overlapping these conservation priorities with a forest cover map. Restoring forests in bare areas of high landslide risk and important bird diversity yields benefits for both biodiversity and people. I developed a simple landslide susceptibility model using slope, forest cover, aspect, and stream proximity. Using publicly available bird range maps, refined by elevation, I mapped concentrations of endemic and small-range bird species. I identified 1.54 km2 of potential restoration areas in the Rio Blanco Reserve, and 886 km2 in the Central Andes region. By prioritizing these areas, I facilitate the application of Article 111 which requires local and regional governments to invest in land purchases for the conservation of watersheds.

Chapter 4 dealt with elevational ranges of montane birds and the impact of lowland deforestation on their ranges in the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot. Using point counts and mist-nets, I surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. I compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analyzing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, I tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

In Chapter 5, I refine the ranges of 726 species from six biodiversity hotspots by suitable elevation and habitat. This set of 172 bird species for the Atlantic Forest, 138 for Central America, 100 for the Western Andes of Colombia, 57 for Madagascar, 102 for Sumatra, and 157 for Southeast Asia met the criteria for range size, endemism, threat, and forest use. Of these 586 species, the Red List deems 108 to be threatened: 15 critically endangered, 29 endangered, and 64 vulnerable. When ranges are refined by elevational limits and remaining forest cover, 10 of those critically endangered species have ranges < 100km2, but then so do 2 endangered species, seven vulnerable, and eight non-threatened ones. Similarly, 4 critically endangered species, 20 endangered, and 12 vulnerable species have refined ranges < 5000km2, but so do 66 non-threatened species. A striking 89% of these species I have classified in higher threat categories have <50% of their refined ranges inside protected areas. I find that for 43% of the species I assessed, refined range sizes fall within thresholds that typically have higher threat categories than their current assignments. I recommend these species for closer inspection by those who assess risk. These assessments are not only important on a species-by-species basis, but by combining distributions of threatened species, I create maps of conservation priorities. They differ significantly from those created from unrefined ranges.

A Mismatch-Based Model for Memory Reconsolidation and Extinction in Attractor Networks

OSAN, R. , TORT, A. B. L. , AMARAL, O. B. . A mismatch-based model for memory reconsolidation and extinction in attractor networks. Plos One, v. 6, p. e23113, 2011.

Analysis of heat transfer coefficient in silica nanofluids with water as base fluid under transitional flow

The effect of Reynolds number variation in a vertical double pipe counterflow heat exchanger due to the changes in viscosity can cause the change in flow regime, for instance, when heats up and cools down, it can convert from turbulent to laminar or inversely, that can have significant effect on heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop. Mainly, the range of transition phase has been studied in this study with the investigation of silica nanofluid dispersed in water in three different concentrations. The results have been compared with distilled water sample and showed a remarkable raise in heat transfer coefficient while pressure drop has been increased respectively, as well. Although pumping power has to go up at the same time and it is a drawback, heat transfer efficiency grows for diluted samples. On the other hand, for the most concentrated sample, effect of pressure drop dominates which leads to decline in the overall efficiency.

Rescue of impaired fear extinction : role of dopaminergic signaling and histone acetylation

submitted by Verena Felizitas Maurer