CAP Reform vs WTO: Crop Diversification or Crop Rotation? : Legal opinion prepared by Dr. Christian Häberli at the request of APRODEV, the Association of World Council of Churches related Development Organisations in Europe

The European Commission’s proposals for the Legislative Framework of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in the period 2014-2020 include, inter alia, the introduction of a “strong greening component”. For the first time, all EU farmers in receipt of support are to “go beyond the requirements of cross compliance and deliver environmental and climate benefits as part of their everyday activities crop diversification as a contribution to all EU farmers in receipt of support go beyond the requirements of cross compliance and deliver environmental and climate benefits as part of their everyday activities.” In a legal opinion prepared at the request of APRODEV, the Association of World Council of Churches related Development Organisations in Europe (www.aprodev.eu), Christian Häberli examines the WTO implications of this proposal, as compared with an alternative proposal to rather link direct payments to crop rotation. The conclusions are twofold: 1. Crop rotation is at least as likely to be found Green Box-compatible as crop diversification. Moreover, it will be more difficult to argue that crop diversification is “not more than minimally production-distorting” because it entails for most farmers less cost and work. 2. Even if (either of the two cropping schemes) were to be found “amber”, the EU would not have to relinquish this conditionality. This is because the direct payments involved would in all likelihood not, together with the other price support instruments, exceed the amount available under the presently scheduled maximum.

Portfolio-optimization models for small investors

Since 2010, the client base of online-trading service providers has grown significantly. Such companies enable small investors to access the stock market at advantageous rates. Because small investors buy and sell stocks in moderate amounts, they should consider fixed transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends when selecting their portfolio. In this paper, we consider the small investor’s problem of investing capital in stocks in a way that maximizes the expected portfolio return and guarantees that the portfolio risk does not exceed a prescribed risk level. Portfolio-optimization models known from the literature are in general designed for institutional investors and do not consider the specific constraints of small investors. We therefore extend four well-known portfolio-optimization models to make them applicable for small investors. We consider one nonlinear model that uses variance as a risk measure and three linear models that use the mean absolute deviation from the portfolio return, the maximum loss, and the conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. We extend all models to consider piecewise-constant transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends. In an out-of-sample experiment based on Swiss stock-market data and the cost structure of the online-trading service provider Swissquote, we apply both the basic models and the extended models; the former represent the perspective of an institutional investor, and the latter the perspective of a small investor. The basic models compute portfolios that yield on average a slightly higher return than the portfolios computed with the extended models. However, all generated portfolios yield on average a higher return than the Swiss performance index. There are considerable differences between the four risk measures with respect to the mean realized portfolio return and the standard deviation of the realized portfolio return.

Using 18O/2H, 3H/3He, 85Kr and CFCs to determine mean residence times and water origin in the Grazer and Leibnitzer Feld groundwater bodies (Austria)

Two groundwater bodies, Grazer Feld and Leibnitzer Feld, with surface areas of 166 and 103 km2 respectively are characterised for the first time by measuring the combination of d18O/d2H, 3H/3He, 85Kr, CFC-11, CFC-12 and hydrochemistry in 34 monitoring wells in 2009/2010. The timescales of groundwater recharge have been characterised by 131 d18O measurements of well and surface water sampled on a seasonal basis. Most monitoring wells show a seasonal variation or indicate variable contributions of the main river Mur (0–30%, max. 70%) and/or other rivers having their recharge areas in higher altitudes. Combined d18O/d2H-measurements indicate that 65–75% of groundwater recharge in the unusual wet year of 2009 was from precipitation in the summer based on values from the Graz meteorological station. Monitoring wells downstream of gravel pit lakes show a clear evaporation trend. A boron–nitrate differentiation plot shows more frequent boron-rich water in the more urbanised Grazer Feld and more frequent nitrate-rich water in the more agricultural used Leibnitzer Feld indicating that a some of the nitrate load in the Grazer Feld comes from urban sewer water. Several lumped parameter models based on tritium input data from Graz and monthly data from the river Mur (Spielfeld) since 1977 yield a Mean Residence Time (MRT) for the Mur-water itself between 3 and 4 years in this area. Data from d18O, 3H/3He measurements at the Wagna lysimeter station supports the conclusion that 90% of the groundwaters in the Grazer Feld and 73% in the Leibnitzer Feld have MRTs of <5 years. Only in a few groundwaters were MRTs of 6–10 or 11–25 years as a result of either a long-distance water inflow in the basins or due to longer flow path in somewhat deeper wells (>20 m) with relative thicker unsaturated zones. The young MRT of groundwater from two monitoring wells in the Leibnitzer Feld was confirmed by 85Kr-measurements. Most CFC-11 and CFC-12 concentrations in the groundwater exceed the equilibration concentrations of modern concentrations in water and are therefore unsuitable for dating purposes. An enrichment factor up to 100 compared to atmospheric equilibrium concentrations and the obvious correlation of CFC-12 with SO4, Na, Cl and B in the ground waters of the Grazer Feld suggest that waste water in contact with CFC-containing material above and below ground is the source for the contamination. The dominance of very young groundwater (<5 years) indicates a recent origin of the contamination by nitrate and many other components observed in parts of the groundwater bodies. Rapid measures to reduce those sources are needed to mitigate against further deterioration of these waters.

Reproducibility of peripheral arterial tonometry measurements in male cardiovascular patients

BACKGROUND Assessment of endothelial function of the microvasculature by peripheral arterial tonometry (EndoPAT(®)) has gained increasing popularity in patients with cardiovascular risk factors. Only limited knowledge about its reproducibility in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is available. We therefore aimed to quantify reproducibility of EndoPAT(®) parameters in patients with stable CAD. DESIGN EndoPAT(®) measurements were performed repeatedly in 78 male patients (age 66 ± 8 years) with CAD on stable medication. We calculated overall mean, standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV) and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of the following parameters: reactive hyperemic index (RHI), PAT ratio of the postocclusion period 90-150 s as used for calculation of the RHI (PAT ratio90-150 s) and 90-120 s (PAT ratio90-120 s) as used for the often employed Framingham RHI (F-RHI), as well as PAT ratio of the peak hyperemic response (PAT ratiopeak response). Additionally, least significant changes (LSC) for individual subjects and minimum sample sizes for parallel and cross-over design studies were calculated. RESULTS Mean RHI was 1·84 (SD 0·36). For RHI, PAT ratio90-150 s , PAT ratio90-120 s , and PAT ratiopeak response the CVs were 17·0%, 25·4%, 26·1%, and 25·0%, respectively. The ICCs were 0·45, 0·49, 0·48 and 0·51, respectively, and LSC for RHI was 47·2%. CONCLUSIONS CV of RHI in our population was moderate; however, we consider this precision insufficient to monitor changes in individual patients, as they would need to exceed 47% to show a significant change. Further, the poor ICCs reflect the difficulty of detecting treatment effects in homogenous populations, such as patients with stable CAD.

Exercise capacity, physical activity patterns and outcomes six years after cardiac rehabilitation in patients with heart failure.

OBJECTIVE To determine the short- and long-term effects of an intensive, concentrated rehabilitation programme in patients with chronic heart failure. DESIGN Randomized controlled trial, with one-month and six-year evaluations. SETTING Residential rehabilitation centre in Switzerland. SUBJECTS Fifty patients with chronic heart failure, randomized to exercise or control groups. INTERVENTIONS A rehabilitation programme lasting one month, including educational sessions, a low-fat diet, and 2 hours of individually prescribed exercise daily. MAIN MEASURES Exercise test responses, health outcomes and physical activity patterns. RESULTS Peak Vo(2) increased 21.4% in the exercise group during the rehabilitation programme (P<0.05), whereas peak Vo(2) did not change among controls. After the six-year follow-up period, peak Vo(2) was only slightly higher than that at baseline in the trained group (7%, NS), while peak Vo(2) among controls was unchanged. During long-term follow-up, 9 and 12 patients died in the exercise and control groups, respectively (P = 0.63). At six years, physical activity patterns tended to be higher in the exercise group; the mean energy expenditure values over the last year were 2,704 +/- 1,970 and 2,085 +/- 1,522 kcal/week during recreational activities for the exercise and control groups, respectively. However, both groups were more active compared to energy expenditure prior to their cardiac event (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Six years after participation in a residential rehabilitation programme, patients with chronic heart failure had slightly better outcomes than control subjects, maintained exercise capacity and engaged in activities that exceed the minimal amount recommended by guidelines for cardiovascular health.

The effect of pain on involuntary and voluntary capture of attention

BACKGROUND: There is converging evidence for the notion that pain affects a broad range of attentional domains. This study investigated the influence of pain on the involuntary capture of attention as indexed by the P3a component in the event-related potential derived from the electroencephalogram. METHODS: Participants performed in an auditory oddball task in a pain-free and a pain condition during which they submerged a hand in cold water. Novel, infrequent and unexpected auditory stimuli were presented randomly in a series of frequent standard and infrequent target tones. P3a and P3b amplitudes were observed to novel, unexpected and target-related stimuli, respectively. RESULTS: Both electrophysiological components were characterized by reduced amplitudes in the pain compared with the pain-free condition. Hit rate and reaction time to target stimuli did not differ between the two conditions presumably because the experimental task was not difficult enough to exceed attentional capacities under pain conditions. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that voluntary attention serving the maintenance and control of ongoing information processing (reflected by the P3b amplitude) is impaired by pain. In addition, the involuntary capture of attention and orientation to novel, unexpected information (measured by the P3a) is also impaired by pain. Thus, neurophysiological measures examined in this study support the theoretical positions proposing that pain can reduce attentional processing capacity. These findings have potentially important implications at the theoretical level for our understanding of the interplay of pain and cognition, and at the therapeutic level for the clinical treatment of individuals experiencing ongoing pain.

Comprehensive measures of sound exposures in cinemas using smart phones

OBJECTIVES Sensorineural hearing loss from sound overexposure has a considerable prevalence. Identification of sound hazards is crucial, as prevention, due to a lack of definitive therapies, is the sole alternative to hearing aids. One subjectively loud, yet little studied, potential sound hazard is movie theaters. This study uses smart phones to evaluate their applicability as a widely available, validated sound pressure level (SPL) meter. Therefore, this study measures sound levels in movie theaters to determine whether sound levels exceed safe occupational noise exposure limits and whether sound levels in movie theaters differ as a function of movie, movie theater, presentation time, and seat location within the theater. DESIGN Six smart phones with an SPL meter software application were calibrated with a precision SPL meter and validated as an SPL meter. Additionally, three different smart phone generations were measured in comparison to an integrating SPL meter. Two different movies, an action movie and a children's movie, were measured six times each in 10 different venues (n = 117). To maximize representativeness, movies were selected focusing on large release productions with probable high attendance. Movie theaters were selected in the San Francisco, CA, area based on whether they screened both chosen movies and to represent the largest variety of theater proprietors. Measurements were analyzed in regard to differences between theaters, location within the theater, movie, as well as presentation time and day as indirect indicator of film attendance. RESULTS The smart phone measurements demonstrated high accuracy and reliability. Overall, sound levels in movie theaters do not exceed safe exposure limits by occupational standards. Sound levels vary significantly across theaters and demonstrated statistically significant higher sound levels and exposures in the action movie compared to the children's movie. Sound levels decrease with distance from the screen. However, no influence on time of day or day of the week as indirect indicator of film attendance could be found. CONCLUSIONS Calibrated smart phones with an appropriate software application as used in this study can be utilized as a validated SPL meter. Because of the wide availability, smart phones in combination with the software application can provide high quantity recreational sound exposure measurements, which can facilitate the identification of potential noise hazards. Sound levels in movie theaters decrease with distance to the screen, but do not exceed safe occupational noise exposure limits. Additionally, there are significant differences in sound levels across movie theaters and movies, but not in presentation time.

Rhythmic synaptic activity induced by mechanical injury of rat CA3 hippocampal area.

Mechanical injury of the CNS frequently results from accidents but also occurs in the course of neurosurgical interventions. A great variety of anatomical and physiological changes have been described to evolve after a brain trauma yet only little is known about processes that occur during a trauma. In the present study, I obtained whole-cell patch clamp recordings from pyramidal cells in hippocampal slice cultures while mechanically lesioning the CA3 area. Electrophysiological analysis revealed that traumatic injury massively increased excitatory and inhibitory synaptic activity in the entire CA3 region. Cutting the CA3 region induced highly rhythmic excitatory postsynaptic currents (EPSCs) that reached frequencies of around 70 Hz. Blocking voltage-dependent sodium channels with tetrodotoxin prevented the increase in synaptic activity and injury-induced neurotransmitter release in CA3 remote from the lesion site. With fast synaptic transmission blocked only neurons in the immediate vicinity of a lesion depolarized and fired action potentials upon mechanical damage. I hence suggest that mechanical injury damages the membrane and induces action potential firing in only a small population of neurons. This activity is then propagated throughout the undamaged CA3 network inducing highly rhythmic discharges. Thus mechanical brain injury initiates immediate functional changes that exceed the lesion site.

Pb pollution from leaded gasoline in South America in the context of a 2000-year metallurgical history

Exploitation of the extensive polymetallic deposits of the Andean Altiplano in South America since precolonial times has caused substantial emissions of neurotoxic lead (Pb) into the atmosphere; however, its historical significance compared to recent Pb pollution from leaded gasoline is not yet resolved. We present a comprehensive Pb emission history for the last two millennia for South America, based on a continuous, high-resolution, ice core record from Illimani glacier. Illimani is the highest mountain of the eastern Bolivian Andes and is located at the northeastern margin of the Andean Altiplano. The ice core Pb deposition history revealed enhanced Pb enrichment factors (EFs) due to metallurgical processing for silver production during periods of the Tiwanaku/Wari culture (AD 450–950), the Inca empires (AD 1450–1532), colonial times (AD 1532–1900), and tin production at the beginning of the 20th century. After the 1960s, Pb EFs increased by a factor of 3 compared to the emission level from metal production, which we attribute to gasoline-related Pb emissions. Our results show that anthropogenic Pb pollution levels from road traffic in South America exceed those of any historical metallurgy in the last two millennia, even in regions with exceptional high local metallurgical activity.

Satellite laser ranging to GPS and GLONASS

Satellite laser ranging (SLR) to the satellites of the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) provides substantial and valuable information about the accuracy and quality of GNSS orbits and allows for the SLR-GNSS co-location in space. In the framework of the NAVSTAR-SLR experiment two GPS satellites of Block-IIA were equipped with laser retroreflector arrays (LRAs), whereas all satellites of the GLONASS system are equipped with LRAs in an operational mode. We summarize the outcome of the NAVSTAR-SLR experiment by processing 20 years of SLR observations to GPS and 12 years of SLR observations to GLONASS satellites using the reprocessed microwave orbits provided by the center for orbit determination in Europe (CODE). The dependency of the SLR residuals on the size, shape, and number of corner cubes in LRAs is studied. We show that the mean SLR residuals and the RMS of residuals depend on the coating of the LRAs and the block or type of GNSS satellites. The SLR mean residuals are also a function of the equipment used at SLR stations including the single-photon and multi-photon detection modes. We also show that the SLR observations to GNSS satellites are important to validate GNSS orbits and to assess deficiencies in the solar radiation pressure models. We found that the satellite signature effect, which is defined as a spread of optical pulse signals due to reflection from multiple reflectors, causes the variations of mean SLR residuals of up to 15 mm between the observations at nadir angles of 0∘ and 14∘. in case of multi-photon SLR stations. For single-photon SLR stations this effect does not exceed 1 mm. When using the new empirical CODE orbit model (ECOM), the SLR mean residual falls into the range 0.1–1.8 mm for high-performing single-photon SLR stations observing GLONASS-M satellites with uncoated corner cubes. For best-performing multi-photon stations the mean SLR residuals are between −12.2 and −25.6 mm due to the satellite signature effect.

Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress

Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+ 40%) and irrigation (+ 25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues.

Impact of a Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Cover on Ocean and Atmospheric Properties

The Arctic sea ice cover declined over the last few decades and reached a record minimum in 2007, with a slight recovery thereafter. Inspired by this the authors investigate the response of atmospheric and oceanic properties to a 1-yr period of reduced sea ice cover. Two ensembles of equilibrium and transient simulations are produced with the Community Climate System Model. A sea ice change is induced through an albedo change of 1 yr. The sea ice area and thickness recover in both ensembles after 3 and 5 yr, respectively. The sea ice anomaly leads to changes in ocean temperature and salinity to a depth of about 200 m in the Arctic Basin. Further, the salinity and temperature changes in the surface layer trigger a “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the North Atlantic that takes roughly 8 yr to travel across the North Atlantic back to high latitudes. In the atmosphere the changes induced by the sea ice anomaly do not last as long as in the ocean. The response in the transient and equilibrium simulations, while similar overall, differs in specific regional and temporal details. The surface air temperature increases over the Arctic Basin and the anomaly extends through the whole atmospheric column, changing the geopotential height fields and thus the storm tracks. The patterns of warming and thus the position of the geopotential height changes vary in the two ensembles. While the equilibrium simulation shifts the storm tracks to the south over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the transient simulation shifts the storm tracks south over the western North Atlantic and North America. The authors propose that the overall reduction in sea ice cover is important for producing ocean anomalies; however, for atmospheric anomalies the regional location of the sea ice anomalies is more important. While observed trends in Arctic sea ice are large and exceed those simulated by comprehensive climate models, there is little evidence based on this particular model that the seasonal loss of sea ice (e.g., as occurred in 2007) would constitute a threshold after which the Arctic would exhibit nonlinear, irreversible, or strongly accelerated sea ice loss. Caution should be exerted when extrapolating short-term trends to future sea ice behavior.

Estimating population and livestock density of mobile pastoralists and sedentary settlements in the southeastern Lake Chad area

Mobile pastoralists provide major contributions to the gross domestic product in Chad, but little information is available regarding their demography. The Lake Chad area population is increasing, resulting in competition for scarce land and water resources. For the first time, the density of people and animals from mobile and sedentary populations was assessed using randomly defined sampling areas. Four sampling rounds were conducted over two years in the same areas to show population density dynamics. We identified 42 villages of sedentary communities in the sampling zones; 11 (in 2010) and 16 (in 2011) mobile pastoralist camps at the beginning of the dry season and 34 (in 2011) and 30 (in 2012) camps at the end of the dry season. A mean of 64.0 people per km2 (95% confidence interval, 20.3-107.8) were estimated to live in sedentary villages. In the mobile communities, we found 5.9 people per km2 at the beginning and 17.5 people per km2 at the end of the dry season. We recorded per km2 on average 21.0 cattle and 31.6 small ruminants in the sedentary villages and 66.1 cattle and 102.5 small ruminants in the mobile communities, which amounts to a mean of 86.6 tropical livestock units during the dry season. These numbers exceed, by up to five times, the published carrying capacities for similar Sahelian zones. Our results underline the need for a new institutional framework. Improved land use management must equally consider the needs of mobile communities and sedentary populations.

Gas transport in firn: multiple-tracer characterisation and model intercomparison for NEEM, Northern Greenland

Air was sampled from the porous firn layer at the NEEM site in Northern Greenland. We use an ensemble of ten reference tracers of known atmospheric history to characterise the transport properties of the site. By analysing uncertainties in both data and the reference gas atmospheric histories, we can objectively assign weights to each of the gases used for the depth-diffusivity reconstruction. We define an objective root mean square criterion that is minimised in the model tuning procedure. Each tracer constrains the firn profile differently through its unique atmospheric history and free air diffusivity, making our multiple-tracer characterisation method a clear improvement over the commonly used single-tracer tuning. Six firn air transport models are tuned to the NEEM site; all models successfully reproduce the data within a 1σ Gaussian distribution. A comparison between two replicate boreholes drilled 64 m apart shows differences in measured mixing ratio profiles that exceed the experimental error. We find evidence that diffusivity does not vanish completely in the lock-in zone, as is commonly assumed. The ice age- gas age difference (1 age) at the firn-ice transition is calculated to be 182+3−9 yr. We further present the first intercomparison study of firn air models, where we introduce diagnostic scenarios designed to probe specific aspects of the model physics. Our results show that there are major differences in the way the models handle advective transport. Furthermore, diffusive fractionation of isotopes in the firn is poorly constrained by the models, which has consequences for attempts to reconstruct the isotopic composition of trace gases back in time using firn air and ice core records.

ROSINA/DFMS and IES observations of 67P: Ion-neutral chemistry in the coma of a weakly outgassing comet

Context. The Rosetta encounter with comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko provides a unique opportunity for an in situ, up-close investigation of ion-neutral chemistry in the coma of a weakly outgassing comet far from the Sun. Aims. Observations of primary and secondary ions and modeling are used to investigate the role of ion-neutral chemistry within the thin coma. Methods. Observations from late October through mid-December 2014 show the continuous presence of the solar wind 30 km from the comet nucleus. These and other observations indicate that there is no contact surface and the solar wind has direct access to the nucleus. On several occasions during this time period, the Rosetta/ROSINA/Double Focusing Mass Spectrometer measured the low-energy ion composition in the coma. Organic volatiles and water group ions and their breakup products (masses 14 through 19), CO2+ (masses 28 and 44) and other mass peaks (at masses 26, 27, and possibly 30) were observed. Secondary ions include H3O+ and HCO+ (masses 19 and 29). These secondary ions indicate ion-neutral chemistry in the thin coma of the comet. A relatively simple model is constructed to account for the low H3O+/H2O+ and HCO+/CO+ ratios observed in a water dominated coma. Results from this simple model are compared with results from models that include a more detailed chemical reaction network. Results. At low outgassing rates, predictions from the simple model agree with observations and with results from more complex models that include much more chemistry. At higher outgassing rates, the ion-neutral chemistry is still limited and high HCO+/CO+ ratios are predicted and observed. However, at higher outgassing rates, the model predicts high H3O+/H2O+ ratios and the observed ratios are often low. These low ratios may be the result of the highly heterogeneous nature of the coma, where CO and CO2 number densities can exceed that of water.