Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

The Early Spörer Minimum – A Period of Extraordinary Climate and Socio-economic Changes in Western and Central Europe

Throughout the last millennium, mankind was affected by prolonged deviations from the climate mean state. While periods like the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century have been assessed in greater detail, earlier cold periods such as the 15th century received much less attention due to the sparse information available. Based on new evidence from different sources ranging from proxy archives to model simulations, it is now possible to provide an end-to-end assessment about the climate state during an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century, the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping these extreme climatic conditions, and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in Central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and human archives indicate that, during winter, the period of the early Spörer Minimum (1431–1440 CE) was the coldest decade in Central Europe in the 15th century. The particularly cold winters and normal but wet summers resulted in a strong seasonal cycle that challenged food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis, and a famine in parts of Europe. As a consequence, authorities implemented adaptation measures, such as the installation of grain storage capacities, in order to be prepared for future events. The 15th century is characterised by a grand solar minimum and enhanced volcanic activity, which both imply a reduction of seasonality. Climate model simulations show that periods with cold winters and strong seasonality are associated with internal climate variability rather than external forcing. Accordingly, it is hypothesised that the reconstructed extreme climatic conditions during this decade occurred by chance and in relation to the partly chaotic, internal variability within the climate system.

Penalty Enhancement for Hate Crimes: An Economic Analysis

The issue of bias-motivated crimes has attracted consderable attention in recent years. In this paper, we develop an economic framework to analyze penalty enhancements for bias-motivated crimes. We extend the standard model by introducing two different groups of potential victims of crime, and assume that a potential offender's benefits from a crime depend on the group to which the victim belongs. We begin with the assumption that the harm to an individual victim from a bias-motivated crime is identical to that from an equivalent non-hate crime. Nonetheless, we derive the result that a pattern of crimes disproportionately targeting an identifiable group leads to greater social harm. This conclusion follows both from a model where disparities in groups' victimization probabilities lead to social losses due to fairness concerns, as well as a model where potential victims have the opportunity to undertake socially costly victimization avoidance activities. In particular, penalty enhancements can reduce the incentives for avoidance activity, and thereby protect the networks of profitable interactions that link members of different groups. We also argue that those groups that are covered by hate crime statutes tend to be those whose characteristics make it especially likely that penalty enhancement is socially optimal. Finally, we consider a number of other issues related to hate crimes, including teh choice of sanctions from behind a Rawlsian 'veil of ignorance' concerning group identity.

A model of factors determining levels of public support for health care policy in the United States

Public preferences for policy are formed in a little-understood process that is not adequately described by traditional economic theory of choice. In this paper I suggest that U.S. aggregate support for health reform can be modeled as tradeoffs among a small number of behavioral values and the stage of policy development. The theory underlying the model is based on Samuelson, et al.'s (1986) work and Wilke's (1991) elaboration of it as the Greed/Efficiency/Fairness (GEF) hypothesis of motivation in the management of resource dilemmas, and behavioral economics informed by Kahneman and Thaler's prospect theory. ^ The model developed in this paper employs ordered probit econometric techniques applied to data derived from U.S. polls taken from 1990 to mid-2003 that measured support for health reform proposals. Outcome data are four-tiered Likert counts; independent variables are dummies representing the presence or absence of operationalizations of each behavioral variable, along with an integer representing policy process stage. Marginal effects of each independent variable predict how support levels change on triggering that variable. Model estimation results indicate a vanishingly small likelihood that all coefficients are zero and all variables have signs expected from model theory. ^ Three hypotheses were tested: support will drain from health reform policy as it becomes increasingly well-articulated and approaches enactment; reforms appealing to fairness through universal health coverage will enjoy a higher degree of support than those targeted more narrowly; health reforms calling for government operation of the health finance system will achieve lower support than those that do not. Model results support the first and last hypotheses. Contrary to expectations, universal health care proposals did not provide incremental support beyond those targeted to “deserving” populations—children, elderly, working families. In addition, loss of autonomy (e.g. restrictions on choice of care giver) is found to be the “third rail” of health reform with significantly-reduced support. When applied to a hypothetical health reform in which an employer-mandated Medical Savings Account policy is the centerpiece, the model predicts support that may be insufficient to enactment. These results indicate that the method developed in the paper may prove valuable to health policy designers. ^

Technical Efficiency of State Owned Enterprises in China (1980-1989): An Assessment of the Economic Reforms

This paper uses Data Envelopment Analysis to examine changes in levels of technical efficiency over time in China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) during 1980-1989. Our paper adds to the growing body of literature in this area by obtaining measures of technical efficiency of individual SOEs over years and by identifying how different aspects of the reforms have affected efficiency. We estimate a Tobit regression model, using the technical efficiency score as the dependent variable and a set of reform variables and firm attributes as regressors. We find that specific aspects of the reforms were very effective in improving technical efficiency.

Are Shirking and Leisure Substitutable? An Empirical Test of Efficiency Wages Based on Urban Economic Theory

Recent theoretical work has examined the spatial distribution of unemployment using the efficiency wage model as the mechanism by which unemployment arises in the urban economy. This paper extends the standard efficiency wage model in order to allow for behavioral substitution between leisure time at home and effort at work. In equilibrium, residing at a location with a long commute affects the time available for leisure at home and therefore affects the trade-off between effort at work and risk of unemployment. This model implies an empirical relationship between expected commutes and labor market outcomes, which is tested using the Public Use Microdata sample of the 2000 U.S. Decennial Census. The empirical results suggest that efficiency wages operate primarily for blue collar workers, i.e. workers who tend to be in occupations that face higher levels of supervision. For this subset of workers, longer commutes imply higher levels of unemployment and higher wages, which are both consistent with shirking and leisure being substitutable.

A Principal-Agent Model of Contracting in Major League Baseball

Traditional economic analyses of the reserve clause in major league baseball view it as having arisen from the superior bargaining of owners compared to players. This article interprets it instead as promoting efficient investment by teams in player development, given the transferability of player skills to other teams. Using a principal-agent framework, the article shows that limited player mobility emerges as part of the optimal contract between players (principals) and teams (agents).

Economic Growth, Longevity, and the Epidemiological Transition

This paper integrates investments in health to a standard growth model where physical and human capital investments are the combined engines of growth. It shows the existence of two distinct health regimes separated by an 'Epidemiological Transition'. The various patterns of the transition identified in the epidemiological literature can be mapped into the model. The model also leads to the important hypothesis that the epidemiological transition may induce an economy to switch to a modern growth regime.

Clinical and economic outcomes of serious postoperative infections following resection of common respiratory and gastrointestinal solid tumors

Unlike infections occurring during periods of chemotherapy-induced neutropenia, postoperative infections in patients with solid malignancy remain largely understudied. The purpose of this population-based study was to evaluate the clinical and economic burden, as well as the relationship of hospital surgical volume and outcomes associated with serious postoperative infection (SPI) – i.e., bacteremia/sepsis, pneumonia, and wound infection – following resection of common solid tumors.^ From the Texas Discharge Data Research File, we identified all Texas residents who underwent resection of cancer of the lung, esophagus, stomach, pancreas, colon, or rectum between 2002 and 2006. From their billing records, we identified ICD-9 codes indicating SPI and also subsequent SPI-related readmissions occurring within 30 days of surgery. Random-effects logistic regression was used to calculate the impact of SPI on mortality, as well as the association between surgical volume and SPI, adjusting for case-mix, hospital characteristics, and clustering of multiple surgical admissions within the same patient and patients within the same hospital. Excess bed days and costs were calculated by subtracting values for patients without infections from those with infections computed using multilevel mixed-effects generalized linear model by fitting a gamma distribution to the data using log link.^ Serious postoperative infection occurred following 9.4% of the 37,582 eligible tumor resections and was independently associated with an 11-fold increase in the odds of in-hospital mortality (95% Confidence Interval [95% CI], 6.7-18.5, P < 0.001). Patients with SPI required 6.3 additional hospital days (95% CI, 6.1 - 6.5) at an incremental cost of $16,396 (95% CI, $15,927–$16,875). There was a significant trend toward lower overall rates of SPI with higher surgical volume (P=0.037). ^ Due to the substantial morbidity, mortality, and excess costs associated with SPI following solid tumor resections and given that, under current reimbursement practices, most of this heavy burden is borne by acute care providers, it is imperative for hospitals to identify more effective prophylactic measures, so that these potentially preventable infections and their associated expenditures can be averted. Additional volume-outcomes research is also needed to identify infection prevention processes that can be transferred from higher- to lower-volume providers.^

A review of economic analysis in the vaccination program; decision making and governance: Adivisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) develops written recommendations for the routine administration of vaccines to children and adults in the U.S. civilian population. The ACIP is the only entity in the federal government that makes such recommendations. ACIP elaborates on selection of its members and rules out concerns regarding its integrity, but fails to provide information about the importance of economic analysis in vaccine selection. ACIP recommendations can have large health and economic consequences. Emphasis on economic evaluation in health is a likely response to severe pressures of the federal and state health budget. This study describes the economic aspects considered by the ACIP while sanctioning a vaccine, and reviews the economic evaluations (our economic data) provided for vaccine deliberations. A five year study period from 2004 to 2009 is adopted. Publicly available data from ACIP web database is used. Drummond et al. (2005) checklist serves as a guide to assess the quality of economic evaluations presented. Drummond et al.'s checklist is a comprehensive hence it is unrealistic to expect every ACIP deliberation to meet all of their criteria. For practical purposes we have selected seven criteria that we judge to be significant criteria provided by Drummond et al. Twenty-four data points were obtained in a five year period. Our results show that out of the total twenty-four data point‘s (economic evaluations) only five data points received a score of six; that is six items on the list of seven were met. None of the data points received a perfect score of seven. Seven of the twenty-four data points received a score of five. A minimum of a two score was received by only one of the economic analyses. The type of economic evaluation along with the model criteria and ICER/QALY criteria met at 0.875 (87.5%). These three criteria were met at the highest rate among the seven criteria studied. Our study findings demonstrate that the perspective criteria met at 0.583 (58.3%) followed by source and sensitivity analysis criteria both tied at 0.541 (54.1%). The discount factor was met at 0.250 (25.0%).^ Economic analysis is not a novel concept to the ACIP. It has been practiced and presented at these meetings on a regular basis for more than five years. ACIP‘s stated goal is to utilize good quality epidemiologic, clinical and economic analyses to help policy makers choose among alternatives presented and thus achieve a better informed decision. As seen in our study the economic analyses over the years are inconsistent. The large variability coupled with lack of a standardized format may compromise the utility of the economic information for decision-making. While making recommendations, the ACIP takes into account all available information about a vaccine. Thus it is vital that standardized high quality economic information is provided at the ACIP meetings. Our study may provide a call for the ACIP to further investigate deficiencies within the system and thereby to improve economic evaluation data presented. ^

The prevalence of periodontal disease in Mexican American vs European American elderly in three distinct socio-economic communities in San Antonio, Texas

Purpose of the Study: This study evaluated the prevalence of periodontal disease between Mexican American elderly and European American elderly residing in three socio-economically distinct neighborhoods in San Antonio, Texas. ^ Study Group: Subjects for the original protocol were participants of the Oral Health: San Antonio Longitudinal Study of Aging (OH: SALSA), which began with National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding in 1993 (M.J. Saunders, PI). The cohort in the study was the individuals who had been enrolled in Phases I and III of the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS). This SAHS/SALSA sample is a community-based probability sample of Mexican American and European American residents from three socio-economically distinct San Antonio neighborhoods: low-income barrio, middle-income transitional, and upper-income suburban. The OH: SALSA cohort was established between July 1993 and May 1998 by sampling two subsets of the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) cohort. These subsets included the San Antonio Longitudinal Study of Aging (SALSA) cohort, comprised of the oldest members of the SAHS (age 65+ yrs. old), and a younger set of controls (age 35-64 yrs. old) sampled from the remainder of the SAHS cohort. ^ Methods: The study used simple descriptive statistics to describe the sociodemographic characteristics and periodontal disease indicators of the OH: SALSA participants. Means and standard deviations were used to summarize continuous measures. Proportions were used to summarize categorical measures. Simple m x n chi square statistics was used to compare ethnic differences. A multivariable ordered logit regression was used to estimate the prevalence of periodontal disease and test ethnic group and neighborhood differences in the prevalence of periodontal disease. A multivariable model adjustment for socio-economic status (income and education), gender, and age (treated as confounders) was applied. ^ Summary: In the unadjusted and adjusted model, Mexican American elderly demonstrated the greatest prevalence for periodontitis, p < 0.05. Mexican American elderly in barrio neighborhoods demonstrated the greatest prevalence for severe periodontitis, with unadjusted prevalence rates of 31.7%, 22.3%, and 22.4% for Mexican American elderly barrio, transitional, and suburban neighborhoods, respectively. Also, Mexican American elderly had adjusted prevalence rates of 29.4%, 23.7%, and 20.4% for barrio, transitional, and suburban neighborhoods, respectively. ^ Conclusion: This study indicates that the prevalence of periodontal disease is an important oral health issue among the Mexican American elderly. The results suggest that the socioeconomic status of the residential neighborhood increased the risk for severe periodontal disease among the Mexican American elderly when compared to European American elderly. A viable approach to recognizing oral health disparities in our growing population of Mexican American elderly is imperative for the provision of special care programs that will help increase the quality of care in this minority population.^

Effects of overweight and obesity on economic outcomes among U.S. adults with kidney disease

Background. Kidney disease is a growing public health phenomenon in the U.S. and in the world. Downstream interventions, dialysis and renal transplants covered by Medicare's renal disease entitlement policy in those who are 65 years and over have been expensive treatments that have been not foolproof. The shortage of kidney donors in the U.S. has grown in the last two decades. Therefore study of upstream events in kidney disease development and progression is justified to prevent the rising prevalence of kidney disease. Previous studies have documented the biological route by which obesity can progress and accelerate kidney disease, but health services literature on quantifying the effects of overweight and obesity on economic outcomes in the context of renal disease were lacking. Objectives . The specific aims of this study were (1) to determine the likelihood of overweight and obesity in renal disease and in three specific adult renal disease sub-populations, hypertensive, diabetic and both hypertensive and diabetic (2) to determine the incremental health service use and spending in overweight and obese renal disease populations and (3) to determine who financed the cost of healthcare for renal disease in overweight and obese adult populations less than 65 years of age. Methods. This study was a retrospective cross-sectional study of renal disease cases pooled for years 2002 to 2009 from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. The likelihood of overweight and obesity was estimated using chi-square test. Negative binomial regression and generalized gamma model with log link were used to estimate healthcare utilization and healthcare expenditures for six health event categories. Payments by self/family, public and private insurance were described for overweight and obese kidney disease sub-populations. Results. The likelihood of overweight and obesity was 0.29 and 0.46 among renal disease and obesity was common in hypertensive and diabetic renal disease population. Among obese renal disease population, negative binomial regression estimates of healthcare utilization per person per year as compared to normal weight renal disease persons were significant for office-based provider visits and agency home health visits respectively (p=0.001; p=0.005). Among overweight kidney disease population health service use was significant for inpatient hospital discharges (p=0.027). Over years 2002 to 2009, overweight and obese renal disease sub-populations had 53% and 63% higher inpatient facility and doctor expenditures as compared to normal weight renal disease population and these result were statistically significant (p=0.007; p=0.026). Overweigh renal disease population had significant total expenses per person per year for office-based and outpatient associated care. Overweight and obese renal disease persons paid less from out-of-pocket overall compared to normal weight renal disease population. Medicare and Medicaid had the highest mean annual payments for obese renal disease persons, while mean annual payments per year were highest for private insurance among normal weight renal disease population. Conclusion. Overweight and obesity were common in those with acute and chronic kidney disease and resulted in higher healthcare spending and increased utilization of office-based providers, hospital inpatient department and agency home healthcare. Healthcare for overweight and obese renal disease persons younger than 65 years of age was financed more by private and public insurance and less by out of pocket payments. With the increasing epidemic of obesity in the U.S. and the aging of the baby boomer population, the findings of the present study have implications for public health and for greater dissemination of healthcare resources to prevent, manage and delay the onset of overweight and obesity that can progress and accelerate the course of the kidney disease.^

Comparison of clinical and economic outcomes between high-intensity care and hospice care for the end-of-life melanoma patients

The intensity of care for patients at the end-of-life is increasing in recent years. Publications have focused on intensity of care for many cancers, but none on melanoma patients. Substantial gaps exist in knowledge about intensive care and its alternative, hospice care, among the advanced melanoma patients at the end of life. End-of-life care may be used in quite different patterns and induce both intended and unintended clinical and economic consequences. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked databases to identify patients aged 65 years or older with metastatic melanoma who died between 2000 and 2007. We evaluated trends and associations between sociodemographic and health services characteristics and the use of hospice care, chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation therapy and costs. Survival, end-of-life costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were evaluated using propensity score methods. Costs were analyzed from the perspective of Medicare in 2009 dollars. In the first journal Article we found increasing use of surgery for patients with metastatic melanoma from 13% in 2000 to 30% in 2007 (P=0.03 for trend), no significant fluctuation in use of chemotherapy (P=0.43) or radiation therapy (P=0.46). Older patients were less likely to receive radiation therapy or chemotherapy. The use of hospice care increased from 61% in 2000 to 79% in 2007 (P =0.07 for trend). Enrollment in short-term (1-3 days) hospice care use increased, while long-term hospice care (≥ 4 days) remained stable. Patients living in the SEER Northeast and South regions were less likely to undergo surgery. Patients enrolled in long-term hospice care used significantly less chemotherapy, surgery and radiation therapy. In the second journal article, of 611 patients identified for this study, 358 (59%) received no hospice care after their diagnosis, 168 (27%) received 1 to 3 days of hospice care, and 85 (14%) received 4 or more days of hospice care. The median survival time was 181 days for patients with no hospice care, 196 days for patients enrolled in hospice for 1 to 3 days, and 300 days for patients enrolled for 4 or more days (log-rank test, P < 0.001). The estimated hazard ratios (HR) between 4 or more days hospice use and survival were similar within the original cohort Cox proportional hazard model (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.49-0.78, P < 0.0001) and the propensity score-matched model (HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47-0.78, P = 0.0001). Patients with ≥ 4 days of hospice care incurred lower end-of-life costs than the other two groups ($14,298 versus $19,380 for the 1- to 3-days hospice care, and $24,351 for patients with no hospice care; p < 0.0001). In conclusion, Surgery and hospice care use increased over the years of this study while the use of chemotherapy and radiation therapy remained consistent for patients diagnosed with metastatic melanoma. Patients diagnosed with advanced melanoma who enrolled in ≥ 4 days of hospice care experienced longer survival than those who had 1-3 days of hospice or no hospice care, and this longer overall survival was accompanied by lower end-of-life costs.^

Atentique´s environmental and economic development shrinkage in globlalization era

This paper focuses on the effects the transfer of ownership from a state‐owned Paper Mill Company to a corporate private ownership has had on environmental and economic shrinkage in Atenquique. This transfer was the result of the ongoing economic process of globalization, after the industrial boom of the paper mills during the second half of the last century. The paper also focuses on how the employees of this Paper Mill Company live and how they have been affected by globalization and how they feel about their paper mill’s new corporate owners. The methodology used was descriptive and exploratory. A sample of ten workers at the company who lived in Atenquique was chosen for an interview. After being inhabited the town of Atenquique developed in terms of population, society and economy. On the other hand the Industrial Company of Atenquique grew during the period when it was a property of the Mexican State. After the company’s privatization, the town started to decline and shrink in three above‐mentioned variables. The impact on the environmental and economic development has initiated the shrinking and declining of Atenquique and the surrounding cities and towns.

Territorial quality and sustainable development : Indicators of performance in the context of a model for participatory rural tourism certification

El turismo rural ha sido incorporado por pequeños establecimientos agropecuarios del partido de Cnel. Suárez, provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina, como actividad alternativa para mejorar la calidad de vida de sus miembros y superar situaciones de crisis agravadas por la marginalidad productiva del SO bonaerense, región a la que pertenecen. Bajo el programa Cambio Rural del INTA (Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria) conforman el Grupo 'Cortaderas II', junto a otros emprendedores interesados en valorar el medio rural. Han avanzado en el proceso de reconocimiento de su identidad y puesta en valor de recursos específicos con anclaje en el territorio. Esta identidad comienza a apreciarse internamente, a raíz de la dinámica grupal lograda y la incipiente articulación con otros actores para la construcción de un partenariado público y privado que genere sinergias y contribuya al desarrollo sustentable del territorio. Sin embargo, aún no es claramente percibida por el turista, cada vez más exigente. Por lo tanto, el presente trabajo persigue proponer indicadores para evaluar el desempeño de un Sistema de Gestión de Calidad con enfoque territorial que, adaptando el modelo europeo 'Marca de Calidad Territorial', sustente una estrategia comercial de diferenciación del servicio y simultáneamente, mida el progreso hacia una mejor calidad de vida y fortalecimiento de vínculos con la cultura local y el entorno físico-natural en el marco del desarrollo sustentable. La investigación se plantea para la micro escala, ya que se trata de un estudio de caso, relevándose información primaria mediante observación directa y entrevistas semi-estructuradas, complementada con información secundaria diagnóstica utilizada por INTA. Las características del grupo y su dinámica de funcionamiento bajo el programa Cambio Rural revelan que es posible adoptar un proceso de certificación participativa propuesto para cuatro pilares de la calidad: de Bienes y Servicios, Institucional, Social y Ambiental. El modelo se integra con indicadores de evaluación de desempeño, agrupados en áreas clave para cada una de las dimensiones de la sustentabilidad, que contemplan el paisaje y la gestión de los recursos naturales; el impacto económico de la actividad, la calidad de la oferta y satisfacción del turista; así como las relaciones sociales internas y los vínculos con otros actores del territorio. Principalmente se encontraron fortalezas en la búsqueda de partenariados y debilidades en aspectos de comunicación y promoción. Se considera que este sistema de herramientas de gestión sustentable permitiría superar las dificultades de una certificación individual, pudiendo aplicarse a emprendimientos con otra ubicación geográfica