Der 11. September aus der Sicht eines Schweizer Trauma Fellows in New York [September 11 from the viewpoint of a Swiss trauma fellow in New York]

This is the report of the events of September 11th seen through the eyes of a Swiss Trauma Fellow. This ill-fated day is described by someone who went down to ground zero with other doctors to help and save lives and came back frustrated because there was so little to be done.

Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling of angiotensin receptor blockade in healthy volunteers.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics of angiotensin II receptor antagonists as a therapeutic class. DESIGN: Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling study. METHODS: The data of 14 phase I studies with 10 different drugs were analysed. A common population pharmacokinetic model (two compartments, mixed zero- and first-order absorption, two metabolite compartments) was applied to the 2685 drug and 900 metabolite concentration measurements. A standard nonlinear mixed effect modelling approach was used to estimate the drug-specific parameters and their variabilities. Similarly, a pharmacodynamic model was applied to the 7360 effect measurements, i.e. the decrease of peak blood pressure response to intravenous angiotensin challenge recorded by finger photoplethysmography. The concentration of drug and metabolite in an effect compartment was assumed to translate into receptor blockade [maximum effect (Emax) model with first-order link]. RESULTS: A general pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model for angiotensin antagonism in healthy individuals was successfully built up for the 10 drugs studied. Representatives of this class share different pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profiles. Their effects on blood pressure are dose-dependent, but the time course of the effect varies between the drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The characterisation of PK-PD relationships for these drugs gives the opportunity to optimise therapeutic regimens and to suggest dosage adjustments in specific conditions. Such a model can be used to further refine the use of this class of drugs.

Characterisation of virulence genes in methicillin susceptible and resistant Staphylococcus aureus isolates from a paediatric population in a university hospital of Medellín, Colombia

Virulence and antibiotic resistance are significant determinants of the types of infections caused by Staphylococcus aureus and paediatric groups remain among the most commonly affected populations. The goal of this study was to characterise virulence genes of methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) strains isolated from a paediatric population of a Colombian University Hospital during 2009. Sixty MSSA and MRSA isolates were obtained from paediatric patients between zero-14 years. We identified the genes encoding virulence factors, which included Panton-Valentine leucocidine (PVL), staphylococcal enterotoxins A-E, exfoliative toxins A and B and toxic shock syndrome toxin 1. Typing of the staphylococcal chromosome cassette mec (SCCmec) was performed in MRSA strains. The virulence genes were more diverse and frequent in MSSA than in MRSA isolates (83% vs. 73%). MRSA strains harboured SCCmec types IVc (60%), I (30%), IVa (7%) and V (3%). SCCmec type IVc isolates frequently carried the PVL encoding genes and harboured virulence determinants resembling susceptible strains while SCCmec type I isolates were often negative. PVL was not exclusive to skin and soft tissue infections. As previously suggested, these differences in the distribution of virulence factor genes may be due to the fitness cost associated with methicillin resistance.

The impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy on the survival of vertically HIV-infected children and adolescents in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

The use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients has reduced the number of acquired immune deficiency syndrome-related deaths worldwide. This study assessed the impact of HAART on the survival and death rates of vertically HIV-infected children and adolescents in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Data were obtained from a historic cohort of vertically HIV-infected children and adolescents aged zero-19 years old who were admitted from March 1989-December 2004 and were followed until June 2006. Patients who used HAART were included if they were treated for at least 12 weeks. Of 359 patients, 320 patients met the inclusion criteria. The overall mortality rate was 9.7% [31/320; 95% confidence interval (CI): 6.0-13%]. The median survival for the non-HAART and HAART groups was 31.5 and 55.9 months, respectively (log rank = 22.11, p < 0.0001). In the multivariate analysis, the statistically significant variables were HAART and the weight-for-age Z score < -2, with HAART constituting a protective factor [relative risk (RR): 0.13; CI 95%: 0.05-0.33] and malnutrition constituting a risk factor (RR: 3.44; CI 95%: 1.60-7.40) for death. The incidence of death was 5.1/100 person-years in the non-HAART group and 0.8/100 person-years in the HAART group (p < 0.0001).

Efficacies of moxifloxacin, ciprofloxacin, and vancomycin against experimental endocarditis due to methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus expressing various degrees of ciprofloxacin resistance.

The new 8-methoxyquinolone moxifloxacin was tested against two ciprofloxacin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus strains (strains P8 and COL) and two ciprofloxacin-resistant derivatives of strain P8 carrying a single grlA mutation (strain P8-4) and double grlA and gyrA mutations (strain P8-128). All strains were resistant to methicillin. The MICs of ciprofloxacin and moxifloxacin were 0.5 and 0.125 mg/liter, respectively, for P8; 0.25 and 0.125 mg/liter, respectively, for COL; 8 and 0.25 mg/liter, respectively, for P8-4; and &gt;or=128 and 2 mg/liter, respectively, for P8-128. In vitro, the rate of spontaneous resistance of P8 and COL was 10(-7) on agar plates containing ciprofloxacin at two times the MIC, whereas it was &lt;or=10(-10) on agar plates containing moxifloxacin at two times the MIC. Rats with experimental aortic endocarditis were treated with doses of drugs that simulate the kinetics in humans: moxifloxacin, 400 mg orally once a day; ciprofloxacin, 750 mg orally twice a day; or vancomycin, 1 g intravenously twice a day. Treatment was started either 12 or 24 h after infection and lasted for 3 days. Moxifloxacin treatment resulted in culture-negative vegetations in a total of 20 of 21 (95%) rats infected with P8, 10 of 11 (91%) rats infected with COL, and 19 of 24 (79%) rats infected with P8-4 (P &lt; 0.05 compared to the results for the controls). In contrast, ciprofloxacin treatment sterilized zero of nine (0%) vegetations infected with first-level resistant mutant P8-4. Vancomycin sterilized only 8 of 15 (53%), 6 of 11 (54%), and 12 of 23 (52%) of the vegetations, respectively. No moxifloxacin-resistant derivative emerged among these organisms. However, moxifloxacin treatment of highly ciprofloxacin-resistant mutant P8-128 failed and selected for variants for which the MIC increased two times in 2 of 10 animals. Thus, while oral moxifloxacin might deserve consideration as treatment for staphylococcal infections in humans, caution related to its use against strains for which MICs are borderline is warranted.

The Limits of Discrete Time Repeated Games:Some Notes and Comments

This paper studies the limits of discrete time repeated games with public monitoring. We solve and characterize the Abreu, Milgrom and Pearce (1991) problem. We found that for the "bad" ("good") news model the lower (higher) magnitude events suggest cooperation, i.e., zero punishment probability, while the highrt (lower) magnitude events suggest defection, i.e., punishment with probability one. Public correlation is used to connect these two sets of signals and to make the enforceability to bind. The dynamic and limit behavior of the punishment probabilities for variations in ... (the discount rate) and ... (the time interval) are characterized, as well as the limit payo¤s for all these scenarios (We also introduce uncertainty in the time domain). The obtained ... limits are to the best of my knowledge, new. The obtained ... limits coincide with Fudenberg and Levine (2007) and Fudenberg and Olszewski (2011), with the exception that we clearly state the precise informational conditions that cause the limit to converge from above, to converge from below or to degenerate. JEL: C73, D82, D86. KEYWORDS: Repeated Games, Frequent Monitoring, Random Pub- lic Monitoring, Moral Hazard, Stochastic Processes.

Genetic variability in G2 and F2 region between biological clones of human respiratory syncytial virus with or without host immune selection pressure

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is an important respiratory pathogens among children between zero-five years old. Host immunity and viral genetic variability are important factors that can make vaccine production difficult. In this work, differences between biological clones of HRSV were detected in clinical samples in the absence and presence of serum collected from children in the convalescent phase of the illness and from their biological mothers. Viral clones were selected by plaque assay in the absence and presence of serum and nucleotide sequences of the G2 and F2 genes of HRSV biological clones were compared. One non-synonymous mutation was found in the F gene (Ile5Asn) in one clone of an HRSV-B sample and one non-synonymous mutation was found in the G gene (Ser291Pro) in four clones of the same HRSV-B sample. Only one of these clones was obtained after treatment with the child's serum. In addition, some synonymous mutations were determined in two clones of the HRSV-A samples. In conclusion, it is possible that minor sequences could be selected by host antibodies contributing to the HRSV evolutionary process, hampering the development of an effective vaccine, since we verify the same codon alteration in absence and presence of human sera in individual clones of BR-85 sample.

The prevalence of norovirus, astrovirus and adenovirus infections among hospitalised children with acute gastroenteritis in Porto Velho, state of Rondônia, western Brazilian Amazon

Although viruses are well-established causes of acute gastroenteritis, few data on the circulation of these pathogens in Porto Velho, state of Rondônia, Brazil, are available. Thus, faecal samples from hospitalised diarrhoeic children, under six years of age, were collected and tested for the presence of norovirus (NoV), adenovirus (AdV) and astrovirus (AstV) from February 2010-February 2012. Specimens were screened by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction and viruses were found in 10.7% (63/591) of the cases. NoV, AdV and AstV were detected in 7.8%, 2% and 0.8% of the samples, respectively. NoV infection was observed at all ages and was most prevalent in zero-18-month-old children (84.7%; p = 0.002). A higher incidence of NoV was detected from February-April 2010, when it was found in 52.2% of the cases. Co-infections involving these viruses, rotavirus and enteropathogenic bacteria were detected in 44.4% (28/63) of the children with viral diarrhoea. Nosocomial infections were demonstrated in 28.6% (18/63) of the cases in which viruses were detected. The present paper reports, for the first time, the circulation of NoV and AstV among the paediatric population of Porto Velho and it contributes to our understanding of the roles of these pathogens in gastrointestinal infections.

Use of Two-Part Regression Calibration Model to Correct for Measurement Error in Episodically Consumed Foods in a Single-Replicate Study Design: EPIC Case Study.

In epidemiologic studies, measurement error in dietary variables often attenuates association between dietary intake and disease occurrence. To adjust for the attenuation caused by error in dietary intake, regression calibration is commonly used. To apply regression calibration, unbiased reference measurements are required. Short-term reference measurements for foods that are not consumed daily contain excess zeroes that pose challenges in the calibration model. We adapted two-part regression calibration model, initially developed for multiple replicates of reference measurements per individual to a single-replicate setting. We showed how to handle excess zero reference measurements by two-step modeling approach, how to explore heteroscedasticity in the consumed amount with variance-mean graph, how to explore nonlinearity with the generalized additive modeling (GAM) and the empirical logit approaches, and how to select covariates in the calibration model. The performance of two-part calibration model was compared with the one-part counterpart. We used vegetable intake and mortality data from European Prospective Investigation on Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. In the EPIC, reference measurements were taken with 24-hour recalls. For each of the three vegetable subgroups assessed separately, correcting for error with an appropriately specified two-part calibration model resulted in about three fold increase in the strength of association with all-cause mortality, as measured by the log hazard ratio. Further found is that the standard way of including covariates in the calibration model can lead to over fitting the two-part calibration model. Moreover, the extent of adjusting for error is influenced by the number and forms of covariates in the calibration model. For episodically consumed foods, we advise researchers to pay special attention to response distribution, nonlinearity, and covariate inclusion in specifying the calibration model.

Highly variable social organisation of colonies in the ant Formica cinerea.

Social organisation of colonies was examined in the ant Formica cinerea by estimating the coefficient of genetic relatedness among worker nest mates. The estimates based on microsatellite genotypes at three loci ranged from values close to zero to 0.61 across the populations studied in Finland. These results showed that a fundamental feature of colonies, the number of reproductive queens, varied greatly among the populations. Colonies in some populations had a single queen, whereas the nests could have a high number number of queens in other populations. There was a weak but non-significant correlation between the genetic and metric distance of nests within two populations with intermediate level of relatedness. Differentiation among nearby populations (within the dispersal distance of individuals) in one locality indicated limited dispersal or founder effects. This could occur when females are philopatric and stay in the natal polygynous colony which expands by building a network of nest galleries within a single habitat patch.

Markov chain montecarlo method applied to rounding zeros of compositional data: first approach

As stated in Aitchison (1986), a proper study of relative variation in a compositional data set should be based on logratios, and dealing with logratios excludes dealing with zeros. Nevertheless, it is clear that zero observations might be present in real data sets, either because the corresponding part is completelyabsent –essential zeros– or because it is below detection limit –rounded zeros. Because the second kind of zeros is usually understood as “a trace too small to measure”, it seems reasonable to replace them by a suitable small value, and this has been the traditional approach. As stated, e.g. by Tauber (1999) and byMartín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000), the principal problem in compositional data analysis is related to rounded zeros. One should be careful to use a replacement strategy that does not seriously distort the general structure of the data. In particular, the covariance structure of the involvedparts –and thus the metric properties– should be preserved, as otherwise further analysis on subpopulations could be misleading. Following this point of view, a non-parametric imputation method isintroduced in Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000). This method is analyzed in depth by Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2003) where it is shown that thetheoretical drawbacks of the additive zero replacement method proposed in Aitchison (1986) can be overcome using a new multiplicative approach on the non-zero parts of a composition. The new approachhas reasonable properties from a compositional point of view. In particular, it is “natural” in the sense thatit recovers the “true” composition if replacement values are identical to the missing values, and it is coherent with the basic operations on the simplex. This coherence implies that the covariance structure of subcompositions with no zeros is preserved. As a generalization of the multiplicative replacement, in thesame paper a substitution method for missing values on compositional data sets is introduced

Using a single tablet daily to treat latent tuberculosis infection in Brazil: bioequivalence of two different isoniazid formulations (300 mg and 100 mg) demonstrated by a sensitive and rapid high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method in a randomised, crossover study

The recommended treatment for latent tuberculosis (TB) infection in adults is a daily dose of isoniazid (INH) 300 mg for six months. In Brazil, INH was formulated as 100 mg tablets. The treatment duration and the high pill burden compromised patient adherence to the treatment. The Brazilian National Programme for Tuberculosis requested a new 300 mg INH formulation. The aim of our study was to compare the bioavailability of the new INH 300 mg formulation and three 100 mg tablets of the reference formulation. We conducted a randomised, single dose, open label, two-phase crossover bioequivalence study in 28 healthy human volunteers. The 90% confidence interval for the INH maximum concentration of drug observed in plasma and area under the plasma concentration vs. time curve from time zero to the last measurable concentration “time t” was 89.61-115.92 and 94.82-119.44, respectively. The main limitation of our study was that neither adherence nor the safety profile of multiple doses was evaluated. To determine the level of INH in human plasma, we developed and validated a sensitive, simple and rapid high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method. Our results showed that the new formulation was bioequivalent to the 100 mg reference product. This finding supports the use of a single 300 mg tablet daily strategy to treat latent TB. This new formulation may increase patients’ adherence to the treatment and quality of life.

Bayesian tools for zero counts in compositional data

The log-ratio methodology makes available powerful tools for analyzing compositionaldata. Nevertheless, the use of this methodology is only possible for those data setswithout null values. Consequently, in those data sets where the zeros are present, aprevious treatment becomes necessary. Last advances in the treatment of compositionalzeros have been centered especially in the zeros of structural nature and in the roundedzeros. These tools do not contemplate the particular case of count compositional datasets with null values. In this work we deal with \count zeros" and we introduce atreatment based on a mixed Bayesian-multiplicative estimation. We use the Dirichletprobability distribution as a prior and we estimate the posterior probabilities. Then weapply a multiplicative modi¯cation for the non-zero values. We present a case studywhere this new methodology is applied.Key words: count data, multiplicative replacement, composition, log-ratio analysis

Efficacy of prescribed injectable diacetylmorphine in the Andalusian trial: Bayesian analysis of responders and non-responders according to a multi domain outcome index.

BACKGROUND The objective of this research was to evaluate data from a randomized clinical trial that tested injectable diacetylmorphine (DAM) and oral methadone (MMT) for substitution treatment, using a multi-domain dichotomous index, with a Bayesian approach. METHODS Sixty two long-term, socially-excluded heroin injectors, not benefiting from available treatments were randomized to receive either DAM or MMT for 9 months in Granada, Spain. Completers were 44 and data at the end of the study period was obtained for 50. Participants were determined to be responders or non responders using a multi-domain outcome index accounting for their physical and mental health and psychosocial integration, used in a previous trial. Data was analyzed with Bayesian methods, using information from a similar study conducted in The Netherlands to select a priori distributions. On adding the data from the present study to update the a priori information, the distribution of the difference in response rates were obtained and used to build credibility intervals and relevant probability computations. RESULTS In the experimental group (n = 27), the rate of responders to treatment was 70.4% (95% CI 53.287.6), and in the control group (n = 23), it was 34.8% (95% CI 15.354.3). The probability of success in the experimental group using the a posteriori distributions was higher after a proper sensitivity analysis. Almost the whole distribution of the rates difference (the one for diacetylmorphine minus methadone) was located to the right of the zero, indicating the superiority of the experimental treatment. CONCLUSION The present analysis suggests a clinical superiority of injectable diacetylmorphine compared to oral methadone in the treatment of severely affected heroin injectors not benefiting sufficiently from the available treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52023186.

Extended family structure in the ant Formica paralugubris: the role of the breeding system

In populations of various ant species, many queens reproduce in the same nest (polygyny), and colony boundaries appear to be absent with individuals able to move fi eely between nests (unicoloniality). Such societies depart strongly from a simple family structure and pose a potential challenge to kin selection theory, because high queen number coupled with unrestricted gene flow among nests should result in levels of relatedness among nestmates close to zero. This study investigated the breeding system and genetic structure of a highly polygynous and largely unicolonial population of the wood ant Formica paralugubris. A microsatellite analysis revealed that nestmate workers, reproductive queens and reproductive males (the queens' mates) are all equally related to each other, with relatedness estimates centring around 0.14. This suggests that most of the queens and males reproducing in the study population had mated within or close to their natal nest, and that the queens did not disperse far after mating. We developed a theoretical model to investigate how the breeding system affects the relatedness structure of polygynous colonies. By combining the model and our empirical data, it was estimated that about 99.8% of the reproducing queens and males originated from within the nest, or from a nearby nest. This high rate of local mating and the rarity of long-distance dispersal maintain significant relatedness among nestmates, and contrast with the common view that unicoloniality is coupled with unrestricted gene flow among nests.