Expressiveness in biologically inspired languages

A very recent and exciting new area of research is the application of Concurrency Theory tools to formalize and analyze biological systems and one of the most promising approach comes from the process algebras (process calculi). A process calculus is a formal language that allows to describe concurrent systems and comes with well-established techniques for quantitative and qualitative analysis. Biological systems can be regarded as concurrent systems and therefore modeled by means of process calculi. In this thesis we focus on the process calculi approach to the modeling of biological systems and investigate, mostly from a theoretical point of view, several promising bio-inspired formalisms: Brane Calculi and k-calculus family. We provide several expressiveness results mostly by means of comparisons between calculi. We provide a lower bound to the computational power of the non Turing complete MDB Brane Calculi by showing an encoding of a simple P-System into MDB. We address the issue of local implementation within the k-calculus family: whether n-way rewrites can be simulated by binary interactions only. A solution introducing divergence is provided and we prove a deterministic solution preserving the termination property is not possible. We use the symmetric leader election problem to test synchronization capabilities within the k-calculus family. Several fragments of the original k-calculus are considered and we prove an impossibility result about encoding n-way synchronization into (n-1)-way synchronization. A similar impossibility result is obtained in a pure computer science context. We introduce CCSn, an extension of CCS with multiple input prefixes and show, using the dining philosophers problem, that there is no reasonable encoding of CCS(n+1) into CCSn.

Neutronics analyses for fast spectrum nuclear systems and scenario studies for advanced nuclear fuel cycles

The present PhD thesis summarizes the three-years study about the neutronic investigation of a new concept nuclear reactor aiming at the optimization and the sustainable management of nuclear fuel in a possible European scenario. A new generation nuclear reactor for the nuclear reinassance is indeed desired by the actual industrialized world, both for the solution of the energetic question arising from the continuously growing energy demand together with the corresponding reduction of oil availability, and the environment question for a sustainable energy source free from Long Lived Radioisotopes and therefore geological repositories. Among the Generation IV candidate typologies, the Lead Fast Reactor concept has been pursued, being the one top rated in sustainability. The European Lead-cooled SYstem (ELSY) has been at first investigated. The neutronic analysis of the ELSY core has been performed via deterministic analysis by means of the ERANOS code, in order to retrieve a stable configuration for the overall design of the reactor. Further analyses have been carried out by means of the Monte Carlo general purpose transport code MCNP, in order to check the former one and to define an exact model of the system. An innovative system of absorbers has been conceptualized and designed for both the reactivity compensation and regulation of the core due to cycle swing, as well as for safety in order to guarantee the cold shutdown of the system in case of accident. Aiming at the sustainability of nuclear energy, the steady-state nuclear equilibrium has been investigated and generalized into the definition of the ``extended'' equilibrium state. According to this, the Adiabatic Reactor Theory has been developed, together with a New Paradigm for Nuclear Power: in order to design a reactor that does not exchange with the environment anything valuable (thus the term ``adiabatic''), in the sense of both Plutonium and Minor Actinides, it is required indeed to revert the logical design scheme of nuclear cores, starting from the definition of the equilibrium composition of the fuel and submitting to the latter the whole core design. The New Paradigm has been applied then to the core design of an Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactor complying with the ELSY overall system layout. A complete core characterization has been done in order to asses criticality and power flattening; a preliminary evaluation of the main safety parameters has been also done to verify the viability of the system. Burn up calculations have been then performed in order to investigate the operating cycle for the Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactor; the fuel performances have been therefore extracted and inserted in a more general analysis for an European scenario. The present nuclear reactors fleet has been modeled and its evolution simulated by means of the COSI code in order to investigate the materials fluxes to be managed in the European region. Different plausible scenarios have been identified to forecast the evolution of the European nuclear energy production, including the one involving the introduction of Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactors, and compared to better analyze the advantages introduced by the adoption of new concept reactors. At last, since both ELSY and the ALFR represent new concept systems based upon innovative solutions, the neutronic design of a demonstrator reactor has been carried out: such a system is intended to prove the viability of technology to be implemented in the First-of-a-Kind industrial power plant, with the aim at attesting the general strategy to use, to the largest extent. It was chosen then to base the DEMO design upon a compromise between demonstration of developed technology and testing of emerging technology in order to significantly subserve the purpose of reducing uncertainties about construction and licensing, both validating ELSY/ALFR main features and performances, and to qualify numerical codes and tools.

Physical model of PD behavior and relevant damage growth from micro-cavities in polyethylene-based material under AC voltage

In the framework of developing defect-based life models, in which breakdown is explicitly associated with partial discharge (PD)-induced damage growth from a defect, ageing tests and PD measurements were carried out in the lab on polyethylene (PE) layered specimens containing artificial cavities. PD activity was monitored continuously during aging. A quasi-deterministic series of stages can be observed in the behavior of the main PD parameters (i.e. discharge repetition rate and amplitude). Phase-resolved PD patterns at various ageing stages were reproduced by numerical simulation which is based on a physical discharge model devoid of adaptive parameters. The evolution of the simulation parameters provides insight into the physical-chemical changes taking place at the dielectric/cavity interface during the aging process. PD activity shows similar time behavior under constant cavity gas volume and constant cavity gas pressure conditions, suggesting that the variation of PD parameters may not be attributed to the variation of the gas pressure. Brownish PD byproducts, consisting of oxygen containing moieties, and degradation pits were found at the dielectric/cavity interface. It is speculated that the change of PD activity is related to the composition of the cavity gas, as well as to the properties of dielectric/cavity interface.

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Caratterizzazione meccanica multiscala di materiali rocciosi strutturalmente complessi

The research work was aimed at studying, with a deterministic approach, the relationships between the rock’s texture and its mechanical properties determined at the laboratory scale. The experimentation was performed on a monomineralic crystalline rock, varying in texture, i.e. grains shape. Multi-scale analysis has been adopted to determine the elasto-mechanical properties of the crystals composing the rock and its strength and deformability at the macro-scale. This let us to understand how the structural variability of the investigated rock affects its macromechanical behaviour. Investigations have been performed on three different scales: nano-scale (order of nm), micro-scale (tens of m) and macro-scale (cm). Innovative techniques for rock mechanics, i.e. Depth Sensing Indentation (DSI), have been applied, in order to determine the elasto-mechanical properties of the calcite grains. These techniques have also allowed to study the influence of grain boundaries on the mechanical response of calcite grains by varying the indents’ sizes and to quantify the effect of the applied load on the hardness and elastic modulus of the grain (indentation size effect, ISE). The secondary effects of static indentation Berkovich, Vickers and Knoop were analyzed by SEM, and some considerations on the rock’s brittle behaviour and the effect of microcracks can be made.

Analisi critica di modelli previsionali per le frane in Emilia Romagna

Questa tesi di dottorato è inserita nell’ambito della convenzione tra ARPA_SIMC (che è l’Ente finanziatore), l’Agenzia Regionale di Protezione Civile ed il Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geologico - Ambientali dell’Ateneo di Bologna. L’obiettivo principale è la determinazione di possibili soglie pluviometriche di innesco per i fenomeni franosi in Emilia Romagna che possano essere utilizzate come strumento di supporto previsionale in sala operativa di Protezione Civile. In un contesto geologico così complesso, un approccio empirico tradizionale non è sufficiente per discriminare in modo univoco tra eventi meteo innescanti e non, ed in generale la distribuzione dei dati appare troppo dispersa per poter tracciare una soglia statisticamente significativa. È stato quindi deciso di applicare il rigoroso approccio statistico Bayesiano, innovativo poiché calcola la probabilità di frana dato un certo evento di pioggia (P(A|B)) , considerando non solo le precipitazioni innescanti frane (quindi la probabilità condizionata di avere un certo evento di precipitazione data l’occorrenza di frana, P(B|A)), ma anche le precipitazioni non innescanti (quindi la probabilità a priori di un evento di pioggia, P(A)). L’approccio Bayesiano è stato applicato all’intervallo temporale compreso tra il 1939 ed il 2009. Le isolinee di probabilità ottenute minimizzano i falsi allarmi e sono facilmente implementabili in un sistema di allertamento regionale, ma possono presentare limiti previsionali per fenomeni non rappresentati nel dataset storico o che avvengono in condizioni anomale. Ne sono esempio le frane superficiali con evoluzione in debris flows, estremamente rare negli ultimi 70 anni, ma con frequenza recentemente in aumento. Si è cercato di affrontare questo problema testando la variabilità previsionale di alcuni modelli fisicamente basati appositamente sviluppati a questo scopo, tra cui X – SLIP (Montrasio et al., 1998), SHALSTAB (SHALlow STABility model, Montgomery & Dietrich, 1994), Iverson (2000), TRIGRS 1.0 (Baum et al., 2002), TRIGRS 2.0 (Baum et al., 2008).

Reinforcement Lernen mit Regularisierungsnetzwerken

Die Arbeit behandelt das Problem der Skalierbarkeit von Reinforcement Lernen auf hochdimensionale und komplexe Aufgabenstellungen. Unter Reinforcement Lernen versteht man dabei eine auf approximativem Dynamischen Programmieren basierende Klasse von Lernverfahren, die speziell Anwendung in der Künstlichen Intelligenz findet und zur autonomen Steuerung simulierter Agenten oder realer Hardwareroboter in dynamischen und unwägbaren Umwelten genutzt werden kann. Dazu wird mittels Regression aus Stichproben eine Funktion bestimmt, die die Lösung einer "Optimalitätsgleichung" (Bellman) ist und aus der sich näherungsweise optimale Entscheidungen ableiten lassen. Eine große Hürde stellt dabei die Dimensionalität des Zustandsraums dar, die häufig hoch und daher traditionellen gitterbasierten Approximationsverfahren wenig zugänglich ist. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, Reinforcement Lernen durch nichtparametrisierte Funktionsapproximation (genauer, Regularisierungsnetze) auf -- im Prinzip beliebig -- hochdimensionale Probleme anwendbar zu machen. Regularisierungsnetze sind eine Verallgemeinerung von gewöhnlichen Basisfunktionsnetzen, die die gesuchte Lösung durch die Daten parametrisieren, wodurch die explizite Wahl von Knoten/Basisfunktionen entfällt und so bei hochdimensionalen Eingaben der "Fluch der Dimension" umgangen werden kann. Gleichzeitig sind Regularisierungsnetze aber auch lineare Approximatoren, die technisch einfach handhabbar sind und für die die bestehenden Konvergenzaussagen von Reinforcement Lernen Gültigkeit behalten (anders als etwa bei Feed-Forward Neuronalen Netzen). Allen diesen theoretischen Vorteilen gegenüber steht allerdings ein sehr praktisches Problem: der Rechenaufwand bei der Verwendung von Regularisierungsnetzen skaliert von Natur aus wie O(n**3), wobei n die Anzahl der Daten ist. Das ist besonders deswegen problematisch, weil bei Reinforcement Lernen der Lernprozeß online erfolgt -- die Stichproben werden von einem Agenten/Roboter erzeugt, während er mit der Umwelt interagiert. Anpassungen an der Lösung müssen daher sofort und mit wenig Rechenaufwand vorgenommen werden. Der Beitrag dieser Arbeit gliedert sich daher in zwei Teile: Im ersten Teil der Arbeit formulieren wir für Regularisierungsnetze einen effizienten Lernalgorithmus zum Lösen allgemeiner Regressionsaufgaben, der speziell auf die Anforderungen von Online-Lernen zugeschnitten ist. Unser Ansatz basiert auf der Vorgehensweise von Recursive Least-Squares, kann aber mit konstantem Zeitaufwand nicht nur neue Daten sondern auch neue Basisfunktionen in das bestehende Modell einfügen. Ermöglicht wird das durch die "Subset of Regressors" Approximation, wodurch der Kern durch eine stark reduzierte Auswahl von Trainingsdaten approximiert wird, und einer gierigen Auswahlwahlprozedur, die diese Basiselemente direkt aus dem Datenstrom zur Laufzeit selektiert. Im zweiten Teil übertragen wir diesen Algorithmus auf approximative Politik-Evaluation mittels Least-Squares basiertem Temporal-Difference Lernen, und integrieren diesen Baustein in ein Gesamtsystem zum autonomen Lernen von optimalem Verhalten. Insgesamt entwickeln wir ein in hohem Maße dateneffizientes Verfahren, das insbesondere für Lernprobleme aus der Robotik mit kontinuierlichen und hochdimensionalen Zustandsräumen sowie stochastischen Zustandsübergängen geeignet ist. Dabei sind wir nicht auf ein Modell der Umwelt angewiesen, arbeiten weitestgehend unabhängig von der Dimension des Zustandsraums, erzielen Konvergenz bereits mit relativ wenigen Agent-Umwelt Interaktionen, und können dank des effizienten Online-Algorithmus auch im Kontext zeitkritischer Echtzeitanwendungen operieren. Wir demonstrieren die Leistungsfähigkeit unseres Ansatzes anhand von zwei realistischen und komplexen Anwendungsbeispielen: dem Problem RoboCup-Keepaway, sowie der Steuerung eines (simulierten) Oktopus-Tentakels.

Employing Distances in Design-based Spatial Estimation

In the last couple of decades we assisted to a reappraisal of spatial design-based techniques. Usually the spatial information regarding the spatial location of the individuals of a population has been used to develop efficient sampling designs. This thesis aims at offering a new technique for both inference on individual values and global population values able to employ the spatial information available before sampling at estimation level by rewriting a deterministic interpolator under a design-based framework. The achieved point estimator of the individual values is treated both in the case of finite spatial populations and continuous spatial domains, while the theory on the estimator of the population global value covers the finite population case only. A fairly broad simulation study compares the results of the point estimator with the simple random sampling without replacement estimator in predictive form and the kriging, which is the benchmark technique for inference on spatial data. The Monte Carlo experiment is carried out on populations generated according to different superpopulation methods in order to manage different aspects of the spatial structure. The simulation outcomes point out that the proposed point estimator has almost the same behaviour as the kriging predictor regardless of the parameters adopted for generating the populations, especially for low sampling fractions. Moreover, the use of the spatial information improves substantially design-based spatial inference on individual values.

Sviluppo di un approccio congiunto fuzzy-Bayesiano per l'analisi e la modellizzazione degli ecosistemi: applicazione ad ecosistemi marini costieri.

Nell’attuale contesto di aumento degli impatti antropici e di “Global Climate Change” emerge la necessità di comprenderne i possibili effetti di questi sugli ecosistemi inquadrati come fruitori di servizi e funzioni imprescindibili sui quali si basano intere tessiture economiche e sociali. Lo studio previsionale degli ecosistemi si scontra con l’elevata complessità di questi ultimi in luogo di una altrettanto elevata scarsità di osservazioni integrate. L’approccio modellistico appare il più adatto all’analisi delle dinamiche complesse degli ecosistemi ed alla contestualizzazione complessa di risultati sperimentali ed osservazioni empiriche. L’approccio riduzionista-deterministico solitamente utilizzato nell’implementazione di modelli non si è però sin qui dimostrato in grado di raggiungere i livelli di complessità più elevati all’interno della struttura eco sistemica. La componente che meglio descrive la complessità ecosistemica è quella biotica in virtù dell’elevata dipendenza dalle altre componenti e dalle loro interazioni. In questo lavoro di tesi viene proposto un approccio modellistico stocastico basato sull’utilizzo di un compilatore naive Bayes operante in ambiente fuzzy. L’utilizzo congiunto di logica fuzzy e approccio naive Bayes è utile al processa mento del livello di complessità e conseguentemente incertezza insito negli ecosistemi. I modelli generativi ottenuti, chiamati Fuzzy Bayesian Ecological Model(FBEM) appaiono in grado di modellizare gli stati eco sistemici in funzione dell’ elevato numero di interazioni che entrano in gioco nella determinazione degli stati degli ecosistemi. Modelli FBEM sono stati utilizzati per comprendere il rischio ambientale per habitat intertidale di spiagge sabbiose in caso di eventi di flooding costiero previsti nell’arco di tempo 2010-2100. L’applicazione è stata effettuata all’interno del progetto EU “Theseus” per il quale i modelli FBEM sono stati utilizzati anche per una simulazione a lungo termine e per il calcolo dei tipping point specifici dell’habitat secondo eventi di flooding di diversa intensità.

Mutually catalytic branching at infinite rate

The purpose of this doctoral thesis is to prove existence for a mutually catalytic random walk with infinite branching rate on countably many sites. The process is defined as a weak limit of an approximating family of processes. An approximating process is constructed by adding jumps to a deterministic migration on an equidistant time grid. As law of jumps we need to choose the invariant probability measure of the mutually catalytic random walk with a finite branching rate in the recurrent regime. This model was introduced by Dawson and Perkins (1998) and this thesis relies heavily on their work. Due to the properties of this invariant distribution, which is in fact the exit distribution of planar Brownian motion from the first quadrant, it is possible to establish a martingale problem for the weak limit of any convergent sequence of approximating processes. We can prove a duality relation for the solution to the mentioned martingale problem, which goes back to Mytnik (1996) in the case of finite rate branching, and this duality gives rise to weak uniqueness for the solution to the martingale problem. Using standard arguments we can show that this solution is in fact a Feller process and it has the strong Markov property. For the case of only one site we prove that the model we have constructed is the limit of finite rate mutually catalytic branching processes as the branching rate approaches infinity. Therefore, it seems naturalto refer to the above model as an infinite rate branching process. However, a result for convergence on infinitely many sites remains open.

Thermal fluctuations and boundary conditions in the lattice Boltzmann method

The lattice Boltzmann method is a popular approach for simulating hydrodynamic interactions in soft matter and complex fluids. The solvent is represented on a discrete lattice whose nodes are populated by particle distributions that propagate on the discrete links between the nodes and undergo local collisions. On large length and time scales, the microdynamics leads to a hydrodynamic flow field that satisfies the Navier-Stokes equation. In this thesis, several extensions to the lattice Boltzmann method are developed. In complex fluids, for example suspensions, Brownian motion of the solutes is of paramount importance. However, it can not be simulated with the original lattice Boltzmann method because the dynamics is completely deterministic. It is possible, though, to introduce thermal fluctuations in order to reproduce the equations of fluctuating hydrodynamics. In this work, a generalized lattice gas model is used to systematically derive the fluctuating lattice Boltzmann equation from statistical mechanics principles. The stochastic part of the dynamics is interpreted as a Monte Carlo process, which is then required to satisfy the condition of detailed balance. This leads to an expression for the thermal fluctuations which implies that it is essential to thermalize all degrees of freedom of the system, including the kinetic modes. The new formalism guarantees that the fluctuating lattice Boltzmann equation is simultaneously consistent with both fluctuating hydrodynamics and statistical mechanics. This establishes a foundation for future extensions, such as the treatment of multi-phase and thermal flows. An important range of applications for the lattice Boltzmann method is formed by microfluidics. Fostered by the "lab-on-a-chip" paradigm, there is an increasing need for computer simulations which are able to complement the achievements of theory and experiment. Microfluidic systems are characterized by a large surface-to-volume ratio and, therefore, boundary conditions are of special relevance. On the microscale, the standard no-slip boundary condition used in hydrodynamics has to be replaced by a slip boundary condition. In this work, a boundary condition for lattice Boltzmann is constructed that allows the slip length to be tuned by a single model parameter. Furthermore, a conceptually new approach for constructing boundary conditions is explored, where the reduced symmetry at the boundary is explicitly incorporated into the lattice model. The lattice Boltzmann method is systematically extended to the reduced symmetry model. In the case of a Poiseuille flow in a plane channel, it is shown that a special choice of the collision operator is required to reproduce the correct flow profile. This systematic approach sheds light on the consequences of the reduced symmetry at the boundary and leads to a deeper understanding of boundary conditions in the lattice Boltzmann method. This can help to develop improved boundary conditions that lead to more accurate simulation results.

Nanotechnology control of self organized biomolecules and biomaterials for medical research

Nanotechnology entails the manufacturing and manipulation of matter at length scales ranging from single atoms to micron-sized objects. The ability to address properties on the biologically-relevant nanometer scale has made nanotechnology attractive for Nanomedicine. This is perceived as a great opportunity in healthcare especially in diagnostics, therapeutics and more in general to develop personalized medicine. Nanomedicine has the potential to enable early detection and prevention, and to improve diagnosis, mass screening, treatment and follow-up of many diseases. From the biological standpoint, nanomaterials match the typical size of naturally occurring functional units or components of living organisms and, for this reason, enable more effective interaction with biological systems. Nanomaterials have the potential to influence the functionality and cell fate in the regeneration of organs and tissues. To this aim, nanotechnology provides an arsenal of techniques for intervening, fabricate, and modulate the environment where cells live and function. Unconventional micro- and nano-fabrication techniques allow patterning biomolecules and biocompatible materials down to the level of a few nanometer feature size. Patterning is not simply a deterministic placement of a material; in a more extended acception it allows a controlled fabrication of structures and gradients of different nature. Gradients are emerging as one of the key factors guiding cell adhesion, proliferation, migration and even differentiation in the case of stem cells. The main goal of this thesis has been to devise a nanotechnology-based strategy and tools to spatially and temporally control biologically-relevant phenomena in-vitro which are important in some fields of medical research.

La determinazione dell'esistenza: Nietzsche e Spinoza

La tesi indaga i temi fondamentali, i limiti e le implicazioni della relazione tra le filosofie di Nietzsche e di Spinoza, sia analizzando storiograficamente il ruolo di Spinoza nei testi di Nietzsche (I parte), sia sviluppando una proposta teoretica a partire dai due autori (II, III e IV parte). L’indagine storiografica procede presentando le riflessioni che Nietzsche dedica a Spinoza secondo un criterio tematico-cronologico. Durante l’esposizione sono discusse le fonti utilizzate da Nietzsche e il significato che le menzioni di Spinoza ricoprono nell’economia generale del pensiero nietzschiano. La seconda parte della ricerca indaga le ragioni per le quali la connessione tra Nietzsche e Spinoza può risultare teoreticamente convincente, in particolare a partire dall’istanza propriamente critica della loro riflessione, che si manifesta come domanda “empia” sul mondo delle credenze condivise. In particolare, è la nozione di “causa” a fungere da rifugio per la credenza metafisica nel soggetto anche all’interno dell’universo deterministico in cui opera la scienza. Come va invece pensato un determinismo che sia filosoficamente coerente? Le ultime due parti di questa ricerca sviluppano alcune ipotesi in proposito, considerando singolarmente le filosofie di Spinoza e di Nietzsche.

Permutation classes, sorting algorithms, and lattice paths

A permutation is said to avoid a pattern if it does not contain any subsequence which is order-isomorphic to it. Donald Knuth, in the first volume of his celebrated book "The art of Computer Programming", observed that the permutations that can be computed (or, equivalently, sorted) by some particular data structures can be characterized in terms of pattern avoidance. In more recent years, the topic was reopened several times, while often in terms of sortable permutations rather than computable ones. The idea to sort permutations by using one of Knuth’s devices suggests to look for a deterministic procedure that decides, in linear time, if there exists a sequence of operations which is able to convert a given permutation into the identical one. In this thesis we show that, for the stack and the restricted deques, there exists an unique way to implement such a procedure. Moreover, we use these sorting procedures to create new sorting algorithms, and we prove some unexpected commutation properties between these procedures and the base step of bubblesort. We also show that the permutations that can be sorted by a combination of the base steps of bubblesort and its dual can be expressed, once again, in terms of pattern avoidance. In the final chapter we give an alternative proof of some enumerative results, in particular for the classes of permutations that can be sorted by the two restricted deques. It is well-known that the permutations that can be sorted through a restricted deque are counted by the Schrӧder numbers. In the thesis, we show how the deterministic sorting procedures yield a bijection between sortable permutations and Schrӧder paths.

Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.