Extinction risk from climate change

Climate change over the past ,30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species’ distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18%) than mid-range (,24%) and maximum change (,35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse

Four independent gene phylogenies confirm the ancient relationships of Madagascar endemic species in the Papilio demoleus group (Lepidoptera, Papilionidae).

Madagascar is home to numerous endemic species and lineages, but the processes that have contributed to its endangered diversity are still poorly understood. Evidence is accumulating to demonstrate the importance of Tertiary dispersal across varying distances of oceanic barriers, supplementing vicariance relationships dating back to the Cretaceous, but these hypotheses remain tentative in the absence of well-supported phylogenies. In the Papilio demoleus group of swallowtail butterflies, three of the five recognized species are restricted to Madagascar, whereas the remaining two species range across the Afrotropical zone and southern Asia plus Australia. We reconstructed phylogenetic relationships for all species in the P. demoleus group, as well as 11 outgroup Papilio species, using 60 morphological characters and about 4 kb of nucleotide sequences from two mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase I and II) and two nuclear (wg and EF-1a) genes. Of the three endemic Malagasy species, the two that are formally listed as endangered or at risk represented the most basal divergences in the group, while the more common third endemic was clearly related to African P. demodocus. The fifth species, P. demoleus, showed little differentiation across southern Asia, but showed divergence from its subspecies sthenelus in Australia. Dispersal-vicariance analysis using cladograms derived from morphology and three independent genes indicated a Malagasy diversification of lime swallowtails in the middle Miocene. Thus, diversification processes on the island of Madagascar may have contributed to the origin of common butterflies that now occur throughout much of the Old World tropical and subtemperate regions. An alternative hypothesis, that Madagascar is a refuge for ancient lineages resulting from successive colonizations from Africa, is less parsimonious and does not explain the relatively low continental diversity of the group.

Fronts, jumps and secondary introductions suggested as different invasion patterns in marine species, with an increase in spread rates over time

Not all introduced (invasive) species in a region will spread from a single point of introduction. Long-distance dispersal or further introductions can obscure the pattern of spread, but the regional importance of such processes is difficult to gauge. These difficulties are further compounded when information on the multiple scale process of invasive species range expansion is reduced to one-dimensional estimates of spread (e. g. km yr(-1)). We therefore compared the results of two different metrics of range expansion: maximum linear rate of spread and accumulation of occupied grid squares (50 x 50 km) over time. An analysis of records for 54 species of introduced marine macrophytes in the Mediterranean and northeast Atlantic revealed cases where the invasion process was probably missed (e. g. Atlantic Bonnemaisonia hamifera) and suggested cases of secondary introductions or erratic jump dispersal (Dasysiphonia sp. and Womersleyella setacea). A majority of species analysed showed evidence for an accumulation of invaded sites without a clear invasion front. Estimates of spread rate are increasing for more recent introductions. The increase is greater than can be accounted for by temporally varying search effort and implies a historical increase in vector efficiency and/or a decreased resistance of native communities to invasion.

Polyopes lancifolius (Halymeniales, Rhodophyta), a new component of the Japanese marine flora introduced to Europe

Polyopes lancifolius (Harvey) S. Kawaguchi & H.W. Wang has been recorded for the first time in Europe, during the summer or 2008. A small population was discovered in the Gulf of Morbihan (northeast Atlantic, France). This is the first observation of P. lancifolius outside its native range. Vegetative and reproductive morphological features are compared with previous descriptions. rbcL sequences show no divergence from Japanese populations. Imports of Pacific oysters Crassostrea gigas (Thunberg 1793) are likely to be responsible for its accidental introduction into the Gulf of Morbihan, either directly from northwest Pacific regions or indirectly (secondary dispersal) by transfers from another European oyster farming site. The history of previous algal introductions from Japan suggests that if it becomes successfully established at Morbihan, the species is likely to spread to other European coastal areas.

A 7000 yr perspective on volcanic ash clouds affecting northern Europe

The ash cloud resulting from the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjöll caused severe disruption to air travel across Europe but as a geological event, it is not unprecedented. Analysis of peat and lake sediments from northern Europe has revealed the presence of microscopic layers of Icelandic volcanic ash (tephra). These sedimentary records, together with historical records of Holocene ash falls, demonstrate that Icelandic volcanoes have generated substantial ash clouds that reached northern Europe many times. Here we present the first comprehensive compilation of sedimentary and historical records of ash-fall events in northern Europe, spanning the last 7000 years. Within this period ten tephra layers have been identified in the Faroe Islands, 14 in Great Britain, 11 in Germany, 38 in Scandinavia and 33 in Ireland. Seven ash fall events have been historically documented prior to the Eyjafjöll 2010 event. Ash fall events appear to be more frequent in the last 1500 years, but it is unclear whether this reflects a true increase in eruption frequency or dispersal, or is an artefact of the records themselves or the way they have been generated. In the last 1,000 years, volcanic ash clouds reached Northern Europe with a mean return interval of 53 ± 8 years (the range of return intervals is between 6 and 112 years). Modelling using the ash records for the last millennium indicates that for any 10 year period there is a 17% probability of tephra fallout event in Northern Europe. These values must be considered as conservative estimates due to the nature of tephra capture and preservation in the sedimentary record.

The pace of Holocene vegetation change - testing for synchronous developments

Mid to high latitude forest ecosystems have undergone several major compositional changes during the Holocene. The temporal and spatial patterns of these vegetation changes hold potential information to their causes and triggers. Here we test the hypothesis that the timing of vegetation change was synchronous on a sub-continental scale, which implies a common trigger or a step-like change in climate parameters. Pollen diagrams from selected European regions were statistically divided into assemblage zones and the temporal pattern of the zone boundaries analysed. The results show that the temporal pattern of vegetation change was significantly different from random. Times of change cluster around8.2, 4.8, 3.7, and 1.2 ka, while times of higher than average stability were found around 2.1 and 5.1 ka.Compositional changes linked to the expansion of Corylus avellana and Alnus glutinosa centre around 10.6 and 9.5 ka, respectively. A climatic trigger initiating these changes may have occurred 0.5 to 1 ka earlier, respectively. The synchronous expansion of C. avellana and A. glutinosa exemplify that dispersal is not necessarily followed by population expansion. The partly synchronous, partly random expansion of A. glutinosa in adjacent European regions exemplifies that sudden synchronous population expansions are not species specific traits but vary regionally.

Deformed wing virus and drone mating flights in the honey bee (Apis mellifera): implications for sexual transmission of a major honey bee virus

Deformed wing virus (DWV) represents an ideal model to study the interaction between mode of transmission and virulence in honey bees since it exhibits both horizontal and vertical transmissions. However, it is not yet clear if venereal-vertical transmission represents a regular mode of transmission for this virus in natural honey bee populations. Here, we provide clear evidence for the occurrence of high DWV titres in the endophallus of sexually mature drones collected from drone congregation areas (DCAs). Furthermore, the endophallus DWV titres of drones collected at their maternal hives were no different from drones collected at nearby DCAs, suggesting that high-titre DWV infection of the endophallus does not hinder the ability of drones to reach the mating area. The results are discussed within the context of the dispersal of DWV between colonies and the definition of DWV virulence with respect to the transmission route and the types of tissues infected.

Larval Transport Modeling of Deep-Sea Invertebrates Can Aid the Search for Undiscovered Populations

Background: Many deep-sea benthic animals occur in patchy distributions separated by thousands of kilometres, yet because deep-sea habitats are remote, little is known about their larval dispersal. Our novel method simulates dispersal by combining data from the Argo array of autonomous oceanographic probes, deep-sea ecological surveys, and comparative invertebrate physiology. The predicted particle tracks allow quantitative, testable predictions about the dispersal of benthic invertebrate larvae in the south-west Pacific. Principal Findings: In a test case presented here, using non-feeding, non-swimming (lecithotrophic trochophore) larvae of polyplacophoran molluscs (chitons), we show that the likely dispersal pathways in a single generation are significantly shorter than the distances between the three known population centres in our study region. The large-scale density of chiton populations throughout our study region is potentially much greater than present survey data suggest, with intermediate ‘stepping stone’ populations yet to be discovered. Conclusions/Significance: We present a new method that is broadly applicable to studies of the dispersal of deep-sea organisms. This test case demonstrates the power and potential applications of our new method, in generating quantitative, testable hypotheses at multiple levels to solve the mismatch between observed and expected distributions: probabilistic predictions of locations of intermediate populations, potential alternative dispersal mechanisms, and expected population genetic structure. The global Argo data have never previously been used to address benthic biology, and our method can be applied to any non-swimming larvae of the deep-sea, giving information upon dispersal corridors and population densities in habitats that remain intrinsically difficult to assess.

Ecological coherence in marine reserve network design: an empirical evaluation of sequential site selection using genetic structure

Ecological coherence is a multifaceted conservation objective that includes some potentially conflicting concepts. These concepts include the extent to which the network maximises diversity (including genetic diversity) and the extent to which protected areas interact with non-reserve locations. To examine the consequences of different selection criteria, the preferred location to complement protected sites was examined using samples taken from four locations around each of two marine protected areas: Strangford Lough and Lough Hyne, Ireland. Three different measures of genetic distance were used: FST, Dest and a measure of allelic dissimilarity, along with a direct assessment of the total number of alleles in different candidate networks. Standardized site scores were used for comparisons across methods and selection criteria. The average score for Castlehaven, a site relatively close to Lough Hyne, was highest, implying that this site would capture the most genetic diversity while ensuring highest degree of interaction between protected and unprotected sites. Patterns around Strangford Lough were more ambiguous, potentially reflecting the weaker genetic structure around this protected area in comparison to Lough Hyne. Similar patterns were found across species with different dispersal capacities, indicating that methods based on genetic distance could be used to help maximise ecological coherence in reserve networks. ⺠Ecological coherence is a key component of marine protected area network design. ⺠Coherence contains a number of competing concepts. ⺠Genetic information from field populations can help guide assessments of coherence. ⺠Average choice across different concepts of coherence was consistent among species. ⺠Measures can be combined to compare the coherence of different network designs.

Range expansion in an invasive small mammal: influence of life-history and habitat quality.

Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity but provide an opportunity to describe the processes that lead to changes in a species’ range. The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is an invasive rodent that was introduced to Ireland in the early twentieth century. Given its continuing range expansion, the substantial empirical data on its spread thus far, and the absence of any eradication program, the bank vole in Ireland represents a unique model system for studying the mechanisms influencing the rate of range expansion in invasive small mammals. We described the invasion using a reaction–diffusion model informed by empirical data on life history traits and demographic parameters. We subsequently modelled the processes involved in its range expansion using a rule-based spatially explicit simulation. Habitat suitability interacted with density-dependent parameters to influence dispersal, most notably the density at which local populations started to donate emigrating individuals, the number of dispersing individuals and the direction of dispersal. Whilst local habitat variability influenced the rate of spread, on a larger scale the invasion resembled a simple reaction–diffusion process. Our results suggest a Type 1 range expansion where the rate of expansion is generally constant over time, but with some evidence for a lag period following introduction. We demonstrate that a two-parameter empirical model and a rule-based spatially explicit simulation are sufficient to accurately describe the invasion history of a species that exhibits a complex, density-dependent pattern of dispersal.

Missing Links, Cultural Modernity and the Dead: Anatomically Modern Humans in the Great Cave of Niah (Sarawak, Borneo)

The Great Cave of Niah in Sarawak (northern Borneo) came into the gaze of Western Science through the work of Alfred Russell Wallace, who came to Sarawak in the 1850s to search for ‘missing links’ in his pioneering studies of evolution and the natural history of Island Southeast Asia and Australasia. The work of Tom and Barbara Harrisson in the 1950s and 1960s placed the Great Cave, and particularly their key find, the ‘Deep Skull’, at the nexus of the evolving archaeological framework for the region: for decades the skull, dated in 1958 by adjacent charcoal to c.40,000 BP, was the oldest fossil of an anatomically modern human anywhere in the world and thus critical to ideas about human evolution and dispersal. Although several authorities later questioned the provenance and antiquity of the Deep Skull, renewed investigations of the Harrisson excavations since 2000 have shown that it can be attributed securely to a specific location in the Pleistocene stratigraphy, with direct U-series dating on a piece of the skull indicating an age for it of c.37,500 BP and the first evidence for associated human activity at the site going back to c.50,000 BP. The new work also indicates that the skull is part of a cultural deposit, perhaps a precursor to the long tradition in Borneo of processing of the dead and secondary burial. These indicators of cultural complexity chime with the complexity of the subsistence behaviour of the early users of the caves discussed by Philip Piper and Ryan Rabett in chapter ten of this volume.

Foraging-farming transitions at the Niah Caves, Sarawak, Borneo

The Niah Caves in Sarawak, Borneo, have captured evidence for people and economies of 8000 and 4000 years ago. Although not continuous on this site, these open two windows on to life at the cultural turning point, broadly equivalent to the transition from Mesolithic to Neolithic. They have much in common, inferring that the occupants, perhaps belonging to an older maritime dispersal, had a choosy appetite for the Neolithic package.

The colonization of macroalgal rafts by the genus Idotea (sub-phylum Crustacea; Order Isopoda):An active or passive process?

The association of invertebrate communities with macroalgae rafts has received much attention over recent decades, yet significant gaps in our knowledge remain with respect to the colonization process. Using laboratory-based experiments and in situ field trials in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, this study investigated whether members of the known rafting genus Idotea (sub-phylum Crustacea; order Isopoda) could effectively colonize rafts after shore seaweed detachment, or if their presence merely reflected a passive marooning process. Test tank arenas were used to identify traits that may influence the rafting potential of the dominant shore species Idotea granulosa and the well known rafter Idotea baltica. When released mid-water, I. granulosa initially ascended and associated with floating seaweed whereas I. baltica tended to descend with no clear habitat association. These findings conflict with the differential distribution of these Idotea species among rafts and shore algae, thus highlighting the complex nature of the potential of organisms to raft. In the field we considered the relative ability of different Idotea species to colonize tethered rafts composed of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus vesiculosus, cleaned of all vagile organisms and deployed at locations adjacent to established intertidal Idotea species populations. At the end of the experiment (after 44 days) rafts were inhabited by known rafting and shoreline species, confirming that colonization can occur after algal detachment. Previously considered shoreline species on occasion outnumbered well known rafters suggesting that a wide range of Idotea species can readily avail of macroalgal rafts as a potential dispersal mechanism or alternative habitat. © 2012 Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom.

Identifying optimal sites for natural recovery and restoration of impacted biogenic habitats in a special area of conservation using hydrodynamic and habitat suitability modelling

Selection of sites for successful restoration of impacted shellfish populations depends on understanding the dispersion capability and habitat requirements of the species involved. In Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, the horse mussel (Modiolus modiolus) biogenic reefs cover only a fraction of their historical range with the remaining reefs badly damaged and requiring restoration. Previous experimental trials suggest that translocation of horse mussels accelerates reef recovery and has therefore been proposed as a suitable restoration technique. We used a series of coupled hydrodynamic and particle dispersal models to assess larval dispersion from remnant and translocated populations to identify suitable areas for adult live M. modiolus translocation in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland. A maximum entropy model (MAXENT) was used to identify if dispersing larvae could reach habitat suitable for adult M. modiolus. From these we predicted if translocated mussels will reseed themselves or be able to act as larval sources for nearby reefs. The dispersal models showed that the remnant M. modiolus populations are largely self-recruiting with little connectivity between them. The majority of larvae settled near the sources and movement was largely dependent on the tides and not influenced by wind or waves. Higher reef elevation resulted in larvae being able to disperse further away from the release point. However, larval numbers away from the source population are likely to be too low for successful recruitment. There was also little connectivity between the Irish Sea and Strangford Lough as any larvae entering the Lough remained predominantly in the Strangford Narrows. The areas covered by these self-seeding populations are suitable for M. modiolus translocation according to the MAXENT model. As a result of this work and in conjunction with other field work we propose a combination of total protection of all remaining larval sources and small scale translocations onto suitable substrata in each of the identified self-recruiting areas.

Identification of genetically and oceanographically distinct blooms of jellyfish

Reports of nuisance jellyfish blooms have increased worldwide during the last half-century, but the possible causes remain unclear.Apersistent difficulty lies in identifying whether blooms occur owing to local or regional processes. This issue can be resolved, in part, by establishing the geographical scales of connectivity among locations, which may be addressed using genetic analyses and oceanographic modelling. We used landscape genetics and Lagrangian modelling of oceanographic dispersal to explore patterns of connectivity in the scyphozoan jellyfish Rhizostoma octopus, which occurs en masse at locations in the Irish Sea and northeastern Atlantic. We found significant genetic structure distinguishing three populations, with both consistencies and inconsistencies with prevailing physical oceanographic patterns. Our analyses identify locations where blooms occur in apparently geographically isolated populations, locations where blooms may be the source or result of migrants, and a location where blooms do not occur consistently and jellyfish are mostly immigrant. Our interdisciplinary approach thus provides a means to ascertain the geographical origins of jellyfish in outbreaks, which may have wide utility as increased international efforts investigate jellyfish blooms. © 2013 The Authors.