A model for the evolution of reinforcement learning in fluctuating games

Many species are able to learn to associate behaviours with rewards as this gives fitness advantages in changing environments. Social interactions between population members may, however, require more cognitive abilities than simple trial-and-error learning, in particular the capacity to make accurate hypotheses about the material payoff consequences of alternative action combinations. It is unclear in this context whether natural selection necessarily favours individuals to use information about payoffs associated with nontried actions (hypothetical payoffs), as opposed to simple reinforcement of realized payoff. Here, we develop an evolutionary model in which individuals are genetically determined to use either trial-and-error learning or learning based on hypothetical reinforcements, and ask what is the evolutionarily stable learning rule under pairwise symmetric two-action stochastic repeated games played over the individual's lifetime. We analyse through stochastic approximation theory and simulations the learning dynamics on the behavioural timescale, and derive conditions where trial-and-error learning outcompetes hypothetical reinforcement learning on the evolutionary timescale. This occurs in particular under repeated cooperative interactions with the same partner. By contrast, we find that hypothetical reinforcement learners tend to be favoured under random interactions, but stable polymorphisms can also obtain where trial-and-error learners are maintained at a low frequency. We conclude that specific game structures can select for trial-and-error learning even in the absence of costs of cognition, which illustrates that cost-free increased cognition can be counterselected under social interactions.

Informing patients about limits to confidentiality: A qualitative study in prisons.

AIM: Confidentiality is important in healthcare practice, however, under certain circumstances, confidentiality is breached. In this paper, mental health professionals' (MHPs) practices related to informing imprisoned patients about confidentiality and its limits are presented. METHODS: Twenty-four MHPs working in Swiss prisons were interviewed. Data analysis involved qualitative thematic coding and was validated by discussing results with external experts and study participants. RESULTS: For expert evaluations and court-ordered therapies, participants informed patients that information revealed during these consultations is not bound by confidentiality rules. The practice of routinely informing patients about confidentiality and its limits became more complex in voluntary therapies, for which participants described four approaches and provided justifications in favour of or against their use. CONCLUSIONS: Further training and continued education are needed to improve physicians' ethical and legal knowledge about confidentiality disclosures. In order to promote ethical practices, it is important to understand and address existing motivations, attitudes and behaviours that impede appropriate patient information. Our study adds important new knowledge about the limits to confidentiality, particularly for providers working with vulnerable populations. Results from this study reflect typical ethical and practical dilemmas faced by and of interest to physicians working in forensic medicine and other related settings.

The reform of the European Energy Tax Directive reform : effect on prices

[spa] Para hacer frente a los riesgos relacionados con la contaminación atmosférica, es ampliamente aceptada la necesidad de instrumentos de política encaminados a reducir las emisiones. La intervención tiene por objeto reducir las conductas contaminantes y incentivar una conducta más respetuosa y el uso de tecnologías más eficientes. La Unión Europea cuenta con dos importantes mecanismos económicos para el control de emisiones a escala europea: la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos, un instrumento de fiscalidad ambiental aprobado en 2003 que afecta el precio de los productos energéticos, y el sistema de comercio de los derechos de emisiones, introducido en 2005, que afecta directamente a la cantidad de emisiones de CO2. En 2011, la Comisión Europea propuso una nueva versión de la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos. El objetivo principal de la propuesta es aumentar la eficacia del instrumento a través de una mayor presión fiscal sobre los productos energéticos y de coordinar este instrumento de fiscalidad medioambiental con el sistema de comercio de los derechos de emisiones, para establecer una señal de precio de CO2 coherente para todos los sectores. Sin embargo, en mayo de 2012 el Parlamento Europeo bloqueó la propuesta de la nueva versión del impuesto, y el proceso de actualización se detuvo. La preocupación principal parecía ser el efecto de dicha propuesta en la competitividad, en particular para los sectores que serían los más afectados dado el uso intensivo de los productos energéticos, como el sector del transporte. El objetivo de este estudio es analizar el efecto que la reforma de la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos podría tener sobre el nivel de precios, en particular en los países de la Unión Europea donde esta reforma implicaría un aumento de los impuestos energéticos. Utilizando datos del proyecto “World Input-Output Database”, la principal conclusión es que el nuevo sistema de impuestos energéticos tendría un impacto muy bajo sobre los precios. Por lo tanto, dado que los precios no serían fuertemente afectados por la reforma, no habrá inconvenientes para la competitividad y implicaciones en términos de distribución, pero, por otro lado, este resultado también implica una baja capacidad de esta reforma para provocar cambios en el consumo y la producción hacia menos presiones ambientales.

The reform of the European Energy Tax Directive reform : effect on prices

[spa] Para hacer frente a los riesgos relacionados con la contaminación atmosférica, es ampliamente aceptada la necesidad de instrumentos de política encaminados a reducir las emisiones. La intervención tiene por objeto reducir las conductas contaminantes y incentivar una conducta más respetuosa y el uso de tecnologías más eficientes. La Unión Europea cuenta con dos importantes mecanismos económicos para el control de emisiones a escala europea: la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos, un instrumento de fiscalidad ambiental aprobado en 2003 que afecta el precio de los productos energéticos, y el sistema de comercio de los derechos de emisiones, introducido en 2005, que afecta directamente a la cantidad de emisiones de CO2. En 2011, la Comisión Europea propuso una nueva versión de la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos. El objetivo principal de la propuesta es aumentar la eficacia del instrumento a través de una mayor presión fiscal sobre los productos energéticos y de coordinar este instrumento de fiscalidad medioambiental con el sistema de comercio de los derechos de emisiones, para establecer una señal de precio de CO2 coherente para todos los sectores. Sin embargo, en mayo de 2012 el Parlamento Europeo bloqueó la propuesta de la nueva versión del impuesto, y el proceso de actualización se detuvo. La preocupación principal parecía ser el efecto de dicha propuesta en la competitividad, en particular para los sectores que serían los más afectados dado el uso intensivo de los productos energéticos, como el sector del transporte. El objetivo de este estudio es analizar el efecto que la reforma de la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos podría tener sobre el nivel de precios, en particular en los países de la Unión Europea donde esta reforma implicaría un aumento de los impuestos energéticos. Utilizando datos del proyecto “World Input-Output Database”, la principal conclusión es que el nuevo sistema de impuestos energéticos tendría un impacto muy bajo sobre los precios. Por lo tanto, dado que los precios no serían fuertemente afectados por la reforma, no habrá inconvenientes para la competitividad y implicaciones en términos de distribución, pero, por otro lado, este resultado también implica una baja capacidad de esta reforma para provocar cambios en el consumo y la producción hacia menos presiones ambientales.

Electrochemical synthesis of mesoporous CoPt nanowires for methanol oxidation

A new electrochemical method to synthesize mesoporous nanowires of alloys has been developed. Electrochemical deposition in ionic liquid-in-water (IL/W) microemulsion has been successful to grow mesoporous CoPt nanowires in the interior of polycarbonate membranes. The viscosity of the medium was high, but it did not avoid the entrance of the microemulsion in the interior of the membrane"s channels. The structure of the IL/W microemulsions, with droplets of ionic liquid (4 nm average diameter) dispersed in CoPt aqueous solution, defined the structure of the nanowires, with pores of a few nanometers, because CoPt alloy deposited only from the aqueous component of the microemulsion. The electrodeposition in IL/W microemulsion allows obtaining mesoporous structures in which the small pores must correspond to the size of the droplets of the electrolytic aqueous component of the microemulsion. The IL main phase is like a template for the confined electrodeposition. The comparison of the electrocatalytic behaviours towards methanol oxidation of mesoporous and compact CoPt nanowires of the same composition, demonstrated the porosity of the material. For the same material mass, the CoPt mesoporous nanowires present a surface area 16 times greater than compact ones, and comparable to that observed for commercial carbon-supported platinum nanoparticles.

Structuration du raconter et évaluation de la racontabilité dans l'entretien médiatique

In this study, we assume that the organisation of storytelling activity is sensitive to emerging norms and, specifically, to what is worth telling from a participant's perspective. We associate the methods of conversation analysis with a labovian approach to oral narratives and examine how storytelling is collaboratively and sequentially built during a radio interview parody. After discussing the relevance of parodic data to understand how media practitioners see their own practices (here: telling a story during a media interview), we provide a detailed analysis of a deviant case by considering the relations between structuring the telling and evaluating the tellability. The analysis leads to show what kinds of interactional resources are used to accomplish the activity: for instance, concurrent topic formulations, shared configurations of grammatical constructions, adjacency pairs. The study also points out how competing agendas can configure the activity in dissimilar ways. Eventually, it underlines the issues of being the interviewee and the storyteller at the same time.

Feromones: el paper de l'olor en la comunicació animal

Chemical perception is considered one of the first senses used as a communication system between living organisms. Such communication is based on the emission of signals between a sender and a receiver; if the communication is chemical, these signals are called pheromones. These signals have evolved via natural selection through a mechanism known as ritualization, which converts cues (which are not adapted to communication and which the receiver picks up regardless of the interests of the sender) into signals (information that the sender transmits as an adaptative response to its previously developed perception of the receiver). When communication has evolved between actors (sender and receiver) with common interests, the honesty of the signal is taken for granted, since both want the same thing (i.e., there is no reason to deceive). If the actors have conflicting interests, however, then the possibility of deception seeps into the possible array of adaptations. This can be observed in the case of communicative mimicry. However, in other situations natural selection imposes conditions that screen the possible signals, allowing only those that meet the requirement of honesty to stabilize. These include indices and added-cost signals. The emission of pheromones plays a variety of roles in the life processes of living beings. It facilitates encounters between individuals of the same species and is heavily involved in the mechanisms of recognition of relatives. It also fosters behaviours such as altruism (cooperation between individuals that share a percentage of their genetic inheritance). In many species, including humans, chemical communication works behind the scenes to guide the choice of a sexual partner.

Values-driven management as perceived by personnel

Organizational values can be used as a tool for improving organization performance. The role of the leaders in building support and developing behaviours consistent with values-driven management is studied through value perceptions by the personnel in the object organization.

Explorer les intersections entre la science forensique et la criminologie au travers de la temporalité de trois types d'actions de contrôle social

Our contribution aims to explore some intersections between forensic science and criminology through the notion of time. The two disciplines analyse the vestiges of illicit activities in order to reconstruct and understand the past, and occasionally to prevent future harms. While forensic science study the material and digital traces as signs of criminal activities and repetitions, criminology contributes to the acquisition of knowledge through its analysis of crime, its authors and victims, as well as social (re)actions to harmful behaviours. Exploratory, our contribution proposes a conceptual delimitation of the notion of time considering its importance in the study of criminality and harms. Through examples, we propose a "crimino-forensic" analysis of three types of actions of social control - prevention, investigation and intelligence - through their respective temporality (before, near or during and after the criminal activity or harm). The temporal issues of the different methodologies developed to appreciate the efficiency of these actions are also addressed to highlight the connections between forensic science and criminology. This attempt to classify the relations between different times and actions of social control are discussed through the multiple benefits and challenges carried out by the formalisation of fusing those two sciences. Notre contribution vise à explorer quelques intersections entre la science forensique (ou criminalistique) et la criminologie au travers de la notion de temps. En effet, les deux disciplines ont en commun qu'elles analysent les vestiges du phénomène criminel pour tenter de reconstruire et comprendre le passé et parfois prévenir de futurs incidents. Alors que la science forensique étudie les traces matérielles et numériques comme signe d'activités et de répétitions criminelles, la criminologie contribue à l'avancée des connaissances en ce domaine par son analyse des comportements contraires aux normes, de leurs auteurs et de leurs victimes, ainsi que des (ré)actions sociales à ces comportements. A but exploratoire, notre contribution propose une délimitation conceptuelle de la notion de temps en regard de l'importance que revêtent ses différentes manifestations dans l'étude de la criminalité. A l'appui d'exemples, nous proposons une analyse « crimino-forensique » de trois types d'action de contrôle social - la prévention, l'investigation et le renseignement - en fonction de leur temporalité respective (avant, proche voire pendant et après l'activité criminelle). Les enjeux temporels entourant les différentes stratégies méthodologiques développées pour apprécier l'efficacité de ces actions sont aussi abordés pour mettre en évidence des pistes d'intégration entre la science forensique et la criminologie. Cet essai de classification des relations entre les temps et ces trois actions de contrôle social est discuté sous l'angle des bénéfices, multiples, mais aussi des défis, que pose la formalisation des liens entre ces deux disciplines des sciences criminelles.

Konepajateollisuuden komponenttitoimittajasta järjestelmätoimittajaksi

Konepajateollisuuden suurasiakkaiden kansainvälistymisen myötä on noussut esiin uusia haasteita ja tarpeita, joihin yritysten tulisi pystyä vastaamaan kilpailukyvyn säilyttämiseksi. Konepajateollisuudessa tämä tarkoittaa entistä tiukempaa keskittymistä ydinosaamisalueisiin, kilpailuedun säilyttämistä, kustannustason sekä laadun hallintaa ja tehtävien jakoa päämiehiltä omille toimittajilleen verkostossa. Toimittajaverkostoissa toimii lukuisa määrä erikokoisia ja - tasoisia alihankkijoita, joista päämiesten lähimpinä toimittajina ovat niin kutsutut järjestelmätoimittajat. Tässä diplomityössä on tutkittu verkostoitumista ja sen perusteita lähinnä konepajateollisuuden kannalta, alan alihankintaverkostoa yleisesti sekä paikallisesti eteläisessä Kymenlaaksossa. Järjestelmätoimittajuuteen on kiinnitetty erityistä huomiota. Työssä on haettu sellaisia pk-yrityksiltä vaadittavia toimenpiteitä ja ominaisuuksia, jotta nouseminen jonkun päähankkijan komponenttitoimittajasta järjestelmätoimittajaksi olisi mahdollista. Aihetta on tarkasteltu teoreettisesti tutkimusten, julkaisujen ja kirjallisuuden avulla. Tämän lisäksi on suoritettu benchmarkkauksia muutamille menestyneille, konepajateollisuudessa toimiville ja järjestelmätoimittajiksi kehittyneille yrityksille. Näiden kerättyjen tietojen perusteella on tehty johtopäätöksiä ja niistä edelleen käytännön kehitystoimenpiteiden ja vaatimusten kartoitus sekä toimintasuunnitelma eräälle Kymenlaakson seudulta olevalle metallialan pk-yritykselle, jolla on tunnistettu olevan mahdollisuudet kehittyä järjestelmätoimittajaksi ja mitä liiketoimintamallia yrityksen johto pitää varteenotettavana vaihtoehtona ja kiinnostavana mahdollisuutena.

Obese, smoker, and obese smoker : is there a general lifestyle gradient?

Aim: Obesity and smoking are major CVD risk factors and may be associated with other unfavourable lifestyle behaviours. Our aim was to investigate the significance of obesity, heavy smoking, and both combined in terms of prevalence trends and their relationship with other lifestyle factors. Methods: We used data from the population-based cross-sectional Swiss Health Survey (5 waves, 1992-2012) comprising 85,575 individuals aged 18 years. Height, weight, and smoking status were self-reported. We used multinomial logistic regression to analyse differences in lifestyle for the combinations of BMI category and smoking status, focusing on obese and heavy smokers. We defined normal-weight never smokers as reference.

Responding to Young People's Health Risks in Primary Care: A Cluster Randomised Trial of Training Clinicians in Screening and Motivational Interviewing.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of a complex intervention implementing best practice guidelines recommending clinicians screen and counsel young people across multiple psychosocial risk factors, on clinicians' detection of health risks and patients' risk taking behaviour, compared to a didactic seminar on young people's health. DESIGN: Pragmatic cluster randomised trial where volunteer general practices were stratified by postcode advantage or disadvantage score and billing type (private, free national health, community health centre), then randomised into either intervention or comparison arms using a computer generated random sequence. Three months post-intervention, patients were recruited from all practices post-consultation for a Computer Assisted Telephone Interview and followed up three and 12 months later. Researchers recruiting, consenting and interviewing patients and patients themselves were masked to allocation status; clinicians were not. SETTING: General practices in metropolitan and rural Victoria, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: General practices with at least one interested clinician (general practitioner or nurse) and their 14-24 year old patients. INTERVENTION: This complex intervention was designed using evidence based practice in learning and change in clinician behaviour and general practice systems, and included best practice approaches to motivating change in adolescent risk taking behaviours. The intervention involved training clinicians (nine hours) in health risk screening, use of a screening tool and motivational interviewing; training all practice staff (receptionists and clinicians) in engaging youth; provision of feedback to clinicians of patients' risk data; and two practice visits to support new screening and referral resources. Comparison clinicians received one didactic educational seminar (three hours) on engaging youth and health risk screening. OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were patient report of (1) clinician detection of at least one of six health risk behaviours (tobacco, alcohol and illicit drug use, risks for sexually transmitted infection, STI, unplanned pregnancy, and road risks); and (2) change in one or more of the six health risk behaviours, at three months or at 12 months. Secondary outcomes were likelihood of future visits, trust in the clinician after exit interview, clinician detection of emotional distress and fear and abuse in relationships, and emotional distress at three and 12 months. Patient acceptability of the screening tool was also described for the intervention arm. Analyses were adjusted for practice location and billing type, patients' sex, age, and recruitment method, and past health risks, where appropriate. An intention to treat analysis approach was used, which included multilevel multiple imputation for missing outcome data. RESULTS: 42 practices were randomly allocated to intervention or comparison arms. Two intervention practices withdrew post allocation, prior to training, leaving 19 intervention (53 clinicians, 377 patients) and 21 comparison (79 clinicians, 524 patients) practices. 69% of patients in both intervention (260) and comparison (360) arms completed the 12 month follow-up. Intervention clinicians discussed more health risks per patient (59.7%) than comparison clinicians (52.7%) and thus were more likely to detect a higher proportion of young people with at least one of the six health risk behaviours (38.4% vs 26.7%, risk difference [RD] 11.6%, Confidence Interval [CI] 2.93% to 20.3%; adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.7, CI 1.1 to 2.5). Patients reported less illicit drug use (RD -6.0, CI -11 to -1.2; OR 0·52, CI 0·28 to 0·96), and less risk for STI (RD -5.4, CI -11 to 0.2; OR 0·66, CI 0·46 to 0·96) at three months in the intervention relative to the comparison arm, and for unplanned pregnancy at 12 months (RD -4.4; CI -8.7 to -0.1; OR 0·40, CI 0·20 to 0·80). No differences were detected between arms on other health risks. There were no differences on secondary outcomes, apart from a greater detection of abuse (OR 13.8, CI 1.71 to 111). There were no reports of harmful events and intervention arm youth had high acceptance of the screening tool. CONCLUSIONS: A complex intervention, compared to a simple educational seminar for practices, improved detection of health risk behaviours in young people. Impact on health outcomes was inconclusive. Technology enabling more efficient, systematic health-risk screening may allow providers to target counselling toward higher risk individuals. Further trials require more power to confirm health benefits. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN.com ISRCTN16059206.

Predictors and Correlates of Substance Use among Young Men. The Longitudinal “From a Boy to a Man” Birth Cohort Study.

Substance use is one of our most important public health problems. Studying risk factors in a longitudinal study setting helps to identify subgroups of young people at greater risk for substance-use-related problems, and to facilitate targeted prevention efforts. The aim of this thesis was to study childhood predictors and correlates of substance-use-related outcomes among young men in a longitudinal, nationwide birth cohort study. The study population included 10% of all Finnish-speaking boys born in Finland in 1981 (n=2946, 97% of the target population). In 1989, at age eight, valid measures of psychiatric symptoms (Rutter questionnaires and Children’s Depression Inventory) were obtained from parents, teachers and the boys themselves. In 1999, at age 18, boys were reached at their obligatory military call-up (n=2348, 80% of the boys attending the study in 1989). Self-reports of substance use, psychopathology, adaptive functioning (Young Adult Self-Report), and mental health service use were obtained through questionnaires. Information about psychiatric diagnoses from the Military Register (age 18-23 years) and information about offending from the National Police Register (age 16-20 years) were collected in early adulthood (92% of the 1989sample). Boys with childhood conduct, hyperactive, and comorbid conduct-emotional problems had elevated rates of substance use and substance-use-related crime in early adulthood. Depressive symptoms predicted daily smoking, especially among boys of low-educated fathers. Emotional problems predicted lower occurrence of drunkenness-related alcohol use and smoking. Teacher reports on boys’ problem behaviour had the best predictive power for later substance use. At age 18, frequent drunkenness associated with delinquency, smoking and illicit drug use, and having friends. Occasional drunkenness associated with better psychosocial functioning in general compared to boys with frequent drunkenness or without drunkenness-related alcohol use. Illicit drug use without drug offending was not predicted by childhood psychiatric symptoms, but 22% of boys with illicit drug use had a psychiatric diagnosis in early adulthood. Drug offenders, in turn, had psychiatric problems both in childhood and in adulthood. Psychiatric disorders were common among young men with substance-use-related crime. Recidivist crime associated strongly with having a substance use disorder diagnosis according to the Military Register. At age 18, frequent drunkenness was common among boys entering mental health services, but entering substance use treatment was non-existent. According to the findings of this thesis, substance-use-related outcomes accumulate in boys having psychiatric problems both in childhood and in early adulthood. Targeted early interventions in school health care systems, particularly for boys with childhood hyperactive, conduct, and comorbid conduct-emotional problems are recommended. Psychiatric problems and risky behaviours, such as delinquency should always be assessed alongside substance use. Specialized and multidisciplinary care are required for young men who have multiple or complex needs, for instance, for young men with drug offending and recidivist crime. Integrating a substance use treatment perspective with other services where young men are encountered is emphasized.

On Option Price Information Content and Extraction of Implied Probability Distributions

In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

Implicación de la ansiedad y la depresión en los trastronos de alimentación de jovenes con obesidad

Objectives: the goals of the present study were: 1) to compare the levels of anxiety, depression, and eating disorders in young patients assisted at a children"s hospital for obesity; 2) to determine whether anxiety and depression explain the symptoms of the eating disorders; and 3) to know which of these symptoms better discriminate the young people with different degrees of obesity. Materials and method: Descriptive, cross-sectional study with a sample comprised by 281 youngsters (56% girls) aged 11-17 years. The BMI percentiles were calculated by using the WHO growth tables. Two study groups were created: severe obesity and overweight/light-moderate obesity. The following questionnaires were used: Eating Disorders Inventory-2 (EDI-2), depression questionnaire (DQ), and Status-Trait Anxiety Questionnaire (STAI). Results: The youngsters with obesity showed more psychological problems than youngsters with overweight/ light-moderate obesity, 12% had anxiety, and 11% depression. In both groups, the behaviours related with eating disorders were partially explained by the presence of symptoms of anxiety and depression. Dissatisfaction with the body and high anxiety trait increased the risk for perpetuating the obesity and were the two symptoms that better discriminated the patients with or without severe obesity. Conclusion: Obesity prevention programmes should include body dissatisfaction and the anxiety trait into the assessment and management protocols, and prevent anxiety getting fixed as a personality trait.