Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three-dimensional process models and field-based tree-ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.

Gravitational wave background from Standard Model physics: qualitative features

Because of physical processes ranging from microscopic particle collisions to macroscopic hydrodynamic fluctuations, any plasma in thermal equilibrium emits gravitational waves. For the largest wavelengths the emission rate is proportional to the shear viscosity of the plasma. In the Standard Model at 0T > 16 GeV, the shear viscosity is dominated by the most weakly interacting particles, right-handed leptons, and is relatively large. We estimate the order of magnitude of the corresponding spectrum of gravitational waves. Even though at small frequencies (corresponding to the sub-Hz range relevant for planned observatories such as eLISA) this background is tiny compared with that from non-equilibrium sources, the total energy carried by the high-frequency part of the spectrum is non-negligible if the production continues for a long time. We suggest that this may constrain (weakly) the highest temperature of the radiation epoch. Observing the high-frequency part directly sets a very ambitious goal for future generations of GHz-range detectors.

A Model Study of the Circulation in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) and Its Adjacent Coastal Waters: 2. Sensitivity Experiments

The Princeton Ocean Model is used to study the circulation in the Pear River Estuary (PRE) and the adjacent coastal waters in the winter and summer seasons. Wong et al. [2003] compares the simulation results with the in situ measurements collected during the Pearl River Estuary Pollution Project (PREPP). In this paper, sensitivity experiments are carried out to examine the plume and the associated frontal dynamics in response to seasonal discharges and monsoon winds. During the winter, convergence between the seaward spreading plume water and the saline coastal water sets up a salinity front that aligns from the northeast to the southwest inside the PRE. During the summer the plume water fills the PRE at the surface and spreads eastward in the coastal waters in response to the prevailing southwesterly monsoon. The overall alignment of the plume is from the northwest to the southeast. The subsurface front is similar to that in the winter and summer except that the summer front is closer to the mouth and the winter front closer to the head of the estuary. Inside the PRE, bottom flows are always toward the head of the estuary, attributed to the density gradient associated with the plume front. In contrast, bottom flows in the shelf change from offshore in winter to onshore in summer, reflecting respectively the wintertime downwelling and summertime upwelling. Wind also plays an essential role in controlling the plume at the surface. An easterly wind drives the plume westward regardless winter or summer. The eastward spreading of the plume during the summer can be attributed to the southerly component of the wind. On the other hand, the surface area of the plume is positively proportional to the amount of discharge.

The role of nitric oxide in small intestinal motility in a model of acute inflammation

Motility responses of the small intestine of iNOS deficient mice (iNOS −/−) and their wildtype littermates (iNOS+/+) to the inflammatory challenge of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) were investigated. LPS administration failed to attenuate intestinal transit in iNOS−/− mice but depressed transit in their iNOS+/+ littermates. Supporting an inhibitory role for sustained nitric oxide (NO) synthesis in the regulation of intestinal motility during inflammation, iNOS immunoreactivity was upregulated in all regions of the small intestine of iNOS+/+ mice. In contrast, neuronal NOS was barely affected. Cyclooxygenase activation was determined by prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) concentration. Following LPS challenge, PGE2 levels were elevated in all intestinal segments in both animal groups. Moreover, COX-1 and COX-2 protein levels were elevated in iNOS+/+ mice in response to LPS, while COX-2 levels were similarly increased in iNOS −/− intestine. However, no apparent relationship was observed between increased prostaglandin concentrations and attenuated intestinal transit. The presence of heme oxygenase 1 (HO-1) in the murine small intestine was also investigated. In both animal groups HO-1 immunoreactivity in the proximal intestine increased in response to treatment, while the constitutive protein levels detected in the middle and distal intestine were unresponsive to LPS administration. No apparent correlation of HO-1 to the suppression of small intestinal motility induced by LPS administration was detected. The presence of S-nitrosylated contractile proteins in the small intestine was determined. γ-smooth muscle actin was basally nitrosylated as well as in response to LPS, but myosin light chain kinase and myosin regulatory chain (MLC20) were not. In conclusion, in a model of acute intestinal inflammation, iNOS-produced NO plays a significant role in suppressing small intestinal motility while nNOS, COX-1, COX-2 and HO-1 do not participate in this event. S-nitrosylation of γ-smooth muscle actin is associated with elevated levels of nitric oxide in the smooth muscle of murine small intestine. ^

COX-2 expression in operable triple negative breast cancer: A hospital based cross-sectional study

Objectives. Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) lack expression of estrogen receptors (ER), progesterone receptors (PR), and absence of Her2 gene amplification. Current literature has identified TNBC and over-expression of cyclo-oxygenase-2 (COX-2) protein in primary breast cancer to be independent markers of poor prognosis in terms of overall and distant disease free survival. The purpose of this study was to compare COX-2 over-expression in TNBC patients to those patients who expressed one or more of the three tumor markers (i.e. ER, and/or PR, and/or Her2).^ Methods. Using a secondary data analysis, a cross-sectional design was implemented to examine the association of interest. Data collected from two ongoing protocols titled "LAB04-0657: a model for COX-2 mediated bone metastasis (Specific aim 3)" and "LAB04-0698: correlation of circulating tumor cells and COX-2 expression in primary breast cancer metastasis" was used for analysis. A sample of 125 female patients was analyzed using Chi-square tests and logistic regression models. ^ Results. COX-2 over-expression was present in 33% (41/125) and 28% (35/124) patients were identified as having TNBC. TNBC status was associated with elevated COX-2 expression (OR= 3.34; 95% CI= 1.40–8.22) and high tumor grade (OR= 4.09; 95% CI= 1.58–10.82). In a multivariable analysis, TNBC status was an important predictor of COX-2 expression after adjusting for age, menopausal status, BMI, and lymph node status (OR= 3.31; 95% CI: 1.26–8.67; p=0.01).^ Conclusion. TNBC is associated with COX-2 expression—a known marker of poor prognosis in patients with operable breast cancer. Replication of these results in a study with a larger sample size, or a future randomized clinical trial demonstrating an improved prognosis with COX-2 suppression in these patients would support this hypothesis.^

Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Flash floods are of major relevance in natural disaster management in the Mediterranean region. In many cases, the damaging effects of flash floods can be mitigated by adequate management of flood control reservoirs. This requires the development of suitable models for optimal operation of reservoirs. A probabilistic methodology for calibrating the parameters of a reservoir flood control model (RFCM) that takes into account the stochastic variability of flood events is presented. This study addresses the crucial problem of operating reservoirs during flood events, considering downstream river damages and dam failure risk as conflicting operation criteria. These two criteria are aggregated into a single objective of total expected damages from both the maximum released flows and stored volumes (overall risk index). For each selected parameter set the RFCM is run under a wide range of hydrologic loads (determined through Monte Carlo simulation). The optimal parameter set is obtained through the overall risk index (balanced solution) and then compared with other solutions of the Pareto front. The proposed methodology is implemented at three different reservoirs in the southeast of Spain. The results obtained show that the balanced solution offers a good compromise between the two main objectives of reservoir flood control management

Bayesian model selection methodology for road safety

Road accidents are a very relevant issue in many countries and macroeconomic models are very frequently applied by academia and administrations to reduce their frequency and consequences. The selection of explanatory variables and response transformation parameter within the Bayesian framework for the selection of the set of explanatory variables a TIM and 3IM (two input and three input models) procedures are proposed. The procedure also uses the DIC and pseudo -R2 goodness of fit criteria. The model to which the methodology is applied is a dynamic regression model with Box-Cox transformation (BCT) for the explanatory variables and autorgressive (AR) structure for the response. The initial set of 22 explanatory variables are identified. The effects of these factors on the fatal accident frequency in Spain, during 2000-2012, are estimated. The dependent variable is constructed considering the stochastic trend component.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models.

In this study we are proposing a Bayesian model selection methodology, where the best model from the list of candidate structural explanatory models is selected. The model structure is based on the Zellner's (1971)explanatory model with autoregressive errors. For the selection technique we are using a parsimonious model, where the model variables are transformed using Box and Cox (1964) class of transformations.

The elliptic model for communication fluxes

In this paper, a model (called the elliptic model) is proposed to estimate the number of social ties between two locations using population data in a similar manner to how transportation research deals with trips. To overcome the asymmetry of transportation models, the new model considers that the number of relationships between two locations is inversely proportional to the population in the ellipse whose foci are in these two locations. The elliptic model is evaluated by considering the anonymous communications patterns of 25 million users from three different countries, where a location has been assigned to each user based on their most used phone tower or billing zip code. With this information, spatial social networks are built at three levels of resolution: tower, city and region for each of the three countries. The elliptic model achieves a similar performance when predicting communication fluxes as transportation models do when predicting trips. This shows that human relationships are influenced at least as much by geography as is human mobility.

A simple mathematical model that describes the growth of the area and the number of total and viable cells in yeast colonies

We propose a model, based on the Gompertz equation, to describe the growth of yeasts colonies on agar medium. This model presents several advantages: (i) one equation describes the colony growth, which previously needed two separate ones (linear increase of radius and of the squared radius); (ii) a similar equation can be applied to total and viable cells, colony area or colony radius, because the number of total cells in mature colonies is proportional to their area; and (iii) its parameters estimate the cell yield, the cell concentration that triggers growth limitation and the effect of this limitation on the specific growth rate. To elaborate the model, area, total and viable cells of 600 colonies of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Debaryomyces fabryi, Zygosaccharomyces rouxii and Rhodotorula glutinis have been measured. With low inocula, viable cells showed an initial short exponential phase when colonies were not visible. This phase was shortened with higher inocula. In visible or mature colonies, cell growth displayed Gompertz-type kinetics. It was concluded that the cells growth in colonies is similar to liquid cultures only during the first hours, the rest of the time they grow, with near-zero specific growth rates, at least for 3 weeks.

Acceleration of atherogenesis by COX-1-dependent prostanoid formation in low density lipoprotein receptor knockout mice

The cyclooxygenase (COX) product, prostacyclin (PGI2), inhibits platelet activation and vascular smooth-muscle cell migration and proliferation. Biochemically selective inhibition of COX-2 reduces PGI2 biosynthesis substantially in humans. Because deletion of the PGI2 receptor accelerates atherogenesis in the fat-fed low density lipoprotein receptor knockout mouse, we wished to determine whether selective inhibition of COX-2 would accelerate atherogenesis in this model. To address this hypothesis, we used dosing with nimesulide, which inhibited COX-2 ex vivo, depressed urinary 2,3 dinor 6-keto PGF1α by approximately 60% but had no effect on thromboxane formation by platelets, which only express COX-1. By contrast, the isoform nonspecific inhibitor, indomethacin, suppressed platelet function and thromboxane formation ex vivo and in vivo, coincident with effects on PGI2 biosynthesis indistinguishable from nimesulide. Indomethacin reduced the extent of atherosclerosis by 55 ± 4%, whereas nimesulide failed to increase the rate of atherogenesis. Despite their divergent effects on atherogenesis, both drugs depressed two indices of systemic inflammation, soluble intracellular adhesion molecule-1, and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 to a similar but incomplete degree. Neither drug altered serum lipids and the marked increase in vascular expression of COX-2 during atherogenesis. Accelerated progression of atherosclerosis is unlikely during chronic intake of specific COX-2 inhibitors. Furthermore, evidence that COX-1-derived prostanoids contribute to atherogenesis suggests that controlled evaluation of the effects of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and/or aspirin on plaque progression in humans is timely.

Elevated interleukin 6 is induced by prostaglandin E2 in a murine model of inflammation: possible role of cyclooxygenase-2.

Injection of mineral oils such as pristane into the peritoneal cavities of BALB/c mice results in a chronic peritonitis associated with high tissue levels of interleukin 6 (IL-6). Here we show that increased prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) synthesis causes induction of IL-6 and that expression of an inducible cyclooxygenase, Cox-2, may mediate this process. Levels of both PGE2 and IL-6 are elevated in inflammatory exudates from pristane-treated mice compared with lavage samples from untreated mice. The Cox-2 gene is induced in the peritoneal macrophage fraction isolated from the mice. A cause and effect relationship between increased macrophage PGE2 and IL-6 production is shown in vitro. When peritoneal macrophages are activated with an inflammatory stimulus (polymerized albumin), the Cox-2 gene is induced and secretion of PGE2 and IL-6 increases, with elevated PGE2 appearing before IL-6. Cotreatment with 1 microM indomethacin inhibits PGE2 production by the cells and reduces the induction of IL-6 mRNA but has no effect on Cox-2 mRNA, consistent with the fact that the drug inhibits catalytic activity of the cyclooxygenase but does not affect expression of the gene. Addition of exogenous PGE2 to macrophages induces IL-6 protein and mRNA synthesis, indicating that the eicosanoid stimulates IL-6 production at the level of gene expression. PGE2-stimulated IL-6 production is unaffected by addition of indomethacin. Taken together with the earlier finding that indomethacin diminishes the elevation of IL-6 in pristane-treated mice, the results show that PGE2 can induce IL-6 production in vivo and implicate expression of the Cox-2 gene in the regulation of this cytokine.

Métodos de adequação e diagnóstico em modelos de sobrevivência dinâmicos

A análise de dados de sobrevivência tem sido tradicionalmente baseada no modelo de regressão de Cox (COX, 1972). No entanto, a suposição de taxas de falha proporcionais assumida para esse modelo pode não ser atendida em diversas situações práticas. Essa restrição do modelo de Cox tem gerado interesse em abordagens alternativas, dentre elas os modelos dinâmicos que permitem efeito das covariáveis variando no tempo. Neste trabalho, foram revisados os principais modelos de sobrevivência dinâmicos com estrutura aditiva e multiplicativa nos contextos não paramétrico e semiparamétrico. Métodos gráficos baseados em resíduos foram apresentados com a finalidade de avaliar a qualidade de ajuste desses modelos. Uma versão tempo-dependente da área sob a curva ROC, denotada por AUC(t), foi proposta com a finalidade de avaliar e comparar a qualidade de predição entre modelos de sobrevivência com estruturas aditiva e multiplicativa. O desempenho da AUC(t) foi avaliado por meio de um estudo de simulação. Dados de três estudos descritos na literatura foram também analisados para ilustrar ou complementar os cenários que foram considerados no estudo de simulação. De modo geral, os resultados obtidos indicaram que os métodos gráficos apresentados para avaliar a adequação dos modelos em conjunto com a AUC(t) se constituem em um conjunto de ferramentas estatísticas úteis para o próposito de avaliar modelos de sobrevivência dinâmicos nos contextos não paramétrico e semiparamétrico. Além disso, a aplicação desse conjunto de ferramentas em alguns conjuntos de dados evidenciou que se, por um lado, os modelos dinâmicos são atrativos por permitirem covariáveis tempo-dependentes, por outro lado podem não ser apropriados para todos os conjuntos de dados, tendo em vista que estimação pode apresentar restrições para alguns deles.

Accident investigation studies on 1979 model automobiles in conjunction with FMVSS 301 compliance testing. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Vehicle Safety Compliance, Washington, D.C.