997 resultados para Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process
Resumo:
In 2007 some of us were fortunate enough to be in Dundee for the Royal College of Nursing’s Annual International Nursing Research Conference. A highlight of that conference was an enactment of the process and context debate. The chair asked for volunteers and various members of the audience came forward giving the impression that they were nurses and that it was a chance selection. The audience accepted these individuals as their representatives and once they had gathered on stage we all expected the debate to begin. But the large number of researchers in the audience gave little thought to the selection and recruitment process they had just witnessed. Then the selected representatives stood up and sang A cappella. Suddenly the context was different and we questioned the process. The point was made: process or context, or both?
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The number of bike share programs has increased rapidly in recent years and there are currently over 700 programs in operation globally. Australia’s two bike share programs have been in operation since 2010 and have significantly lower usage rates compared to Europe, North America and China. This study sets out to understand and quantify the factors influencing bike share membership in Australia’s two bike share programs located in Melbourne and Brisbane. An online survey was administered to members of both programs as well as a group with no known association with bike share. A logistic regression model revealed several significant predictors of membership including reactions to mandatory helmet legislation, riding activity over the previous month, and the degree to which convenience motivated private bike riding. In addition, respondents aged 18 - 34 and having docking station within 250m of their workplace were found to be statistically significant predictors of bike share membership. Finally, those with relatively high incomes increased the odds of membership. These results provide insight as to the relative influence of various factors impacting on bike share membership in Australia. The findings may assist bike share operators to maximize membership potential and help achieve the primary goal of bike share – to increase the sustainability of the transport system.
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In-memory databases have become a mainstay of enterprise computing offering significant performance and scalability boosts for online analytical and (to a lesser extent) transactional processing as well as improved prospects for integration across different applications through an efficient shared database layer. Significant research and development has been undertaken over several years concerning data management considerations of in-memory databases. However, limited insights are available on the impacts of applications and their supportive middleware platforms and how they need to evolve to fully function through, and leverage, in-memory database capabilities. This paper provides a first, comprehensive exposition into how in-memory databases impact Business Pro- cess Management, as a mission-critical and exemplary model-driven integration and orchestration middleware. Through it, we argue that in-memory databases will render some prevalent uses of legacy BPM middleware obsolete, but also open up exciting possibilities for tighter application integration, better process automation performance and some entirely new BPM capabilities such as process-based application customization. To validate the feasibility of an in-memory BPM, we develop a surprisingly simple BPM runtime embedded into SAP HANA and providing for BPMN-based process automation capabilities.
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Despite ongoing improvements in behaviour change strategies, licensing models and road law enforcement measures young drivers remain significantly over-represented in fatal and non-fatal road related crashes. This paper focuses on the safety of those approaching driving age and identifies both high priority road safety messages and relevant peer-led strategies to guide the development school programs. It summarises the review in a program logic model built around the messages and identified curriculum elements, as they may be best operationalised within the licensing and school contexts in Victoria. This paper summarises a review of common deliberate risk-taking and non-deliberate unsafe driving behaviours among novice drivers, highlighting risks associated with speeding, driving while fatigued, driving while impaired and carrying passengers. Common beliefs of young people that predict risky driving were reviewed, particularly with consideration of those beliefs that can be operationalised in a behaviour change school program. Key components of adolescent risk behaviour change programs were also reviewed, which identified a number of strategies for incorporation in a school based behaviour change program, including: a well-structured theoretical design and delivery, thoughtfully considered peer-selected processes, adequate training and supervision of peer facilitators, a process for monitoring and sustainability, and interactive delivery and participant discussions. The research base is then summarised in a program logic model with further discussion about the quality of the current state of knowledge of evaluation of behaviour change programs and the need for considerable development in program evaluation.
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Accurate process model elicitation continues to be a time consuming task, requiring skill on the part of the interviewer to extract explicit and tacit process information from the interviewee. Many errors occur in this elicitation stage that would be avoided by better activity recall, more consistent specification methods and greater engagement in the elicitation process by interviewees. Metasonic GmbH has developed a process elicitation tool for their process suite. As part of a research engagement with Metasonic, staff from QUT, Australia have developed a 3D virtual world approach to the same problem, viz. eliciting process models from stakeholders in an intuitive manner. This book chapter tells the story of how QUT staff developed a 3D Virtual World tool for process elicitation, took the outcomes of their research project to Metasonic for evaluation, and finally, Metasonic’s response to the initial proof of concept.
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This chapter sets out to identify patterns at play in boardroom discussions around the design and adoption of an accountability system in a nonprofit organisation. To this end, it contributes to the scarce literature showing the backstage of management accounting systems (Berry, 2005), investment policy determining (Kreander, Beattie & McPhail, 2009; Kreander, McPhail & Molyneaux, 2004) and financial planning strategizing (Parker, 2004) or budgeting (Irvine 2005). The paucity of publications is due to issues raised by confidentiality preventing attendance at those meetings (Irvine, 2003), Irvine & Gaffikin, 2006). However, often, the implementation of a new control technology occurs over a long period of time that might exceed the duration of a research project (Quattrone & Hopper, 2001, 2005). Recent trends consisting of having research funded by grants from private institutions or charities have tended to reduce the length of such undertakings to a few months or rarely more than a couple of years (Parker, 2013);
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Fashion Thinking: Creative Approaches to the Design Process, F. Dieffenbacher (2013) London: AVA, 224 pp., ISBN: 9782940411719, p/bk, $79.99
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Young novice drivers are at considerable risk of injury on the road. Their behaviour appears vulnerable to the social influence of their parents and friends. The nature and mechanisms of parent and peer influence on young novice driver (16–25 years) behaviour was explored via small group interviews (n = 21) and two surveys (n1 = 1170, n2 = 390) to inform more effective young driver countermeasures. Parental and peer influence occurred in preLicence, Learner, and Provisional (intermediate) periods. Pre-Licence and unsupervised Learner drivers reported their parents were less likely to punish risky driving (e.g., speeding). These drivers were more likely to imitate their parents and reported their parents were also risky drivers. Young novice drivers who experienced or expected social punishments from peers, including ‘being told off’ for risky driving, reported less riskiness. Conversely drivers who experienced or expected social rewards such as being ‘cheered on’ by friends – who were also more risky drivers – reported more risky driving including crashes and offences. Interventions enhancing positive influence and curtailing negative influence may improve road safety outcomes not only for young novice drivers, but for all persons who share the road with them. Parent-specific interventions warrant further development and evaluation including: modelling safe driving behaviour by parents; active monitoring of driving during novice licensure; and sharing the family vehicle during the intermediate phase. Peer-targeted interventions including modelling of safe driving behaviour and attitudes; minimisation of social reinforcement and promotion of social sanctions for risky driving also need further development and evaluation.
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Identifying appropriate decision criteria and making optimal decisions in a structured way is a complex process. This paper presents an approach for doing this in the form of a hybrid Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Cybernetic Analytic Network Process (CANP) model for project manager selection. This involves the use of QFD to translate the owner's project management expectations into selection criteria and the CANP to weight the expectations and selection criteria. The supermatrix approach then prioritises the candidates with respect to the overall decision-making goal. A case study is used to demonstrate the use of the model in selecting a renovation project manager. This involves the development of 18 selection criteria in response to the owner's three main expectations of time, cost and quality.
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The aim of the paper is to give a feasibility study on the material deposition of Nanoscale textured morphology of titanium and titanium oxide layers on titanium and glass substrates. As a recent development in nanoscale deposition, Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD) based DC magnetron sputtering has been the choice for the deposition process. The nanoscale morphology and surface roughness of the samples have been characterized using Atomic Force Microscope (AFM). The surface roughnesses obtained from AFM have been compared using surface profiler. From the results we can say that the roughness values are dependent on the surface roughness of the substrate. The glass substrate was relatively smoother than the titanium plate and hence lower layer roughness was obtained. From AFM a unique nano-pattern of a boomerang shaped titanium oxide layer on glass substrate have been obtained. The boomerang shaped nano-scale pattern was found to be smaller when the layer was deposited at higher sputtering power. This indicated that the morphology of the deposited titanium oxide layer has been influenced by the sputtering power.
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Although the notion of wellbeing is popular in contemporary literature, it is variously interpreted and has no common definition. Such inconsistencies in definition have particular relevance when considering wellbeing programs designed for children. By developing a broader conceptualisation of wellbeing and its key elements, the range of programs and services developed in the name of wellbeing will achieve a more consistent cross-disciplinary focus to ensure that the needs of the individual, including children, can more accurately be addressed. This paper presents a new perspective on conceptualising wellbeing. The authors argue that conceptualising wellbeing as an accrued process has particular relevance for both adults and children. A definition for accrued wellbeing is presented in an attempt to address some of the current deficiencies in existing understandings of an already complicated construct. The potential for the ideas presented when considering wellbeing as a process of accrual may have further application when considered beyond childhood.
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Kaolinite naturally occurs in the plate form for the interlayer hydrogen bond and the distortion and adaption of tetrahedron and octahedron. But kaolinite sheets can be exfoliated to nanoscrolls artificially in laboratory through multiple-step displacement intercalation. The driving force for kaolinite sheet to be curled nanoscroll originates from the size discrepancy of Si–O tetrahedron and Al–O octahedron. The displacement intercalation promoted the platy kaolinite sheets spontaneously to be scrolled by eliminating the interlayer hydrogen bond and atomic interaction. Kaolinite nanoscrolls are hollow tubes with outer face of tetrahedral sheet and inner face of octahedral sheet. Based on the theoretical calculation it is firstly reported that the minimum interior diameter for a single kaolinite sheet to be scrolled is about 9.08 nm, and the optimal 24.30 nm, the maximum 100 nm, which is verified by the observation of scanning electron microscope and transmission electron microscope. The different adaption types and discrepancy degree between tetrahedron and octahedron generate various curling forces in different directions. The nanoscroll axes prefer the directions as [100], [1 �10], [110], [3 �10], and the relative curling force are as follows, [3 �10] > [100] = [1�10] > [110].
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Process modeling – the design and use of graphical documentations of an organization’s business processes – is a key method to document and use information about the operations of businesses. Still, despite current interest in process modeling, this research area faces essential challenges. Key unanswered questions concern the impact of process modeling in organizational practice, and the mechanisms through which impacts are developed. To answer these questions and to provide a better understanding of process modeling impact, I turn to the concept of affordances. Affordances describe the possibilities for goal-oriented action that a technical object offers to a user. This notion has received growing attention from IS researchers. The purpose of my research is to further develop the IS discipline’s understanding of affordances and impacts from information objects, such as process models used by analysts for information systems analysis and design. Specifically, I seek to extend existing theory on the emergence, perception and actualization of affordances. I develop a research model that describes the process by which affordances emerge between an individual and an object, how affordances are perceived, and how they are actualized by the individual. The proposed model also explains the role of available information for the individual, and the influence of perceived actualization effort. I operationalize and test this research model empirically, using a full-cycle, mixed methods study consisting of case study and experiment.