947 resultados para Bayesian spatial analysis, dengue, socioecological factors
Resumo:
The current high competition on Citrus industry demands from growers new management technologies for superior efficiency and sustainability. In this context, precision agriculture (PA) has developed techniques based on yield mapping and management systems that recognize field spatial variability, which contribute to increase profitability of commercial crops. Because spatial variability is often not perceived the orange orchards are still managed as uniform and adoption of PA technology on citrus farms is low. Thus, the objective of the present study was to characterize the spatial variability of three factors: fruit yield, soil fertility and occurrence of plant gaps caused by either citrus blight or huanglongbing (HLB) in a commercial Valencia orchard in Brotas, São Paulo State, Brazil. Data from volume, geographic coordinates and representative area of the bags used on harvest were recorded to generate yield points that were then interpolated to produce the yield map. Soil chemical characteristics were studied by analyzing samples collected along planting rows and inter-rows in 24 points distributed in the field. A map of density of tree gaps was produced by georeferencing individual gaps and later by counting the number of gaps within 500 m² cells. Data were submitted to statistical and geostatistical analyses. A t test was used to compare means of soil chemical characteristics between sampling regions. High variation on yield and density of tree gaps was observed from the maps. It was also demonstrated overlapping regions of high density of plant absence and low fruit yield. Soil fertility varied depending on the sampling region in the orchard. The spatial variability found on yield, soil fertility and on disease occurrence demonstrated the importance to adopt site specific nutrient management and disease control as tools to guarantee efficiency of fruit production.
Resumo:
This study aimed to verify the impact of inhalable particulate matter (PM10) on cancer incidence and mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Statistical techniques were used to investigate the relationship between PM10 on cancer incidence and mortality in selected districts. For some types of cancer (skin, lung, thyroid, larynx, and bladder) and some periods, the correlation coefficients ranged from 0.60 to 0.80 for incidence. Lung cancer mortality showed more correlations during the overall period. Spatial analysis showed that districts distant from the city center showed higher than expected relative risk, depending on the type of cancer. According to the study, urban PM10 can contribute to increased incidence of some cancers and may also contribute to increased cancer mortality. The results highlight the need to adopt measures to reduce atmospheric PM10 levels and the importance of their continuous monitoring.
Resumo:
OBJETIVO: Identificar aglomerados espaciais de microrregiões segundo taxas de óbito por acidentes de trânsito, no Estado de São Paulo, 1 ano antes e 1 ano após a Lei Seca. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico e exploratório, no período de 2007 e 2009, em 63 microrregiões do Estado de SP, Brasil. Utilizaram-se ferramentas de geoprocessamento com dados do DATASUS; analisando óbitos decorrentes de acidentes de trânsito em taxas por 100 mil habitantes, construindo coropletes. Nova estatística foi obtida subtraindo-se a taxa de 2009 de 2007, observando regiões de melhora ou piora. RESULTADOS: Em 2007, ocorreram 5.204 óbitos, com média de 83 óbitos/microrregião, variando entre 1 e 1.440. Já 2009 obteve 5.065 óbitos com a média de 80 óbitos/microrregião, variando entre 1 e 1.453. O coeficiente de Moran em 2007 foi I = 0,09 (p = 0,04) com correlação espacial positiva e 2009 obteve I = 0,04 (p = 0,16), sem correlação. A diferença entre as taxas obteve I = 0,23 (p = 0, 007), indicando associação espacial. Em 2007, Presidente Prudente, Rio Claro, Campinas, Bragança Paulista, Osasco e São Paulo tiveram altas taxas de óbito. Dessas regiões citadas, somente Osasco não se destacou em 2009. Ribeirão Preto, Ourinhos e Avaré obtiveram piora em 2009. A diferença entre as taxas de 2009 e 2007 mostrou que Amparo, Bragança Paulista e Campinas tiveram melhora, e Presidente Prudente e Ourinhos apresentaram piora. CONCLUSÃO: Foi possível identificar os locais com as maiores taxas de mortalidade, apontando locais onde as ações de fiscalização devem ser revisadas.
Faturamento de novos produtos na indústria do estado de São Paulo: análise dos fatores de influência
Resumo:
Diversos estudos têm sido realizados no intuito de analisar os impactos da inovação tecnológica no desempenho comercial das empresas. Com isso, este estudo visa analisar os fatores de influência sobre o percentual do faturamento com a venda de novos produtos na indústria do Estado de São Paulo. Trata-se de uma pesquisa com características descritivas e explicativas, cuja abordagem é quantitativa, utilizando dados secundários provindos da Pesquisa de Atividade Econômica Paulista (PAEP), realizada pela Fundação SEADE. Os resultados mostram que os fatores de influência sobre o faturamento provindo de novos produtos são: a origem do capital controlador; a empresa pertencer a um grupo empresarial; o total de pessoal em pesquisa e desenvolvimento; o pessoal alocado diretamente na produção; as fontes de informação para atividades inovativas; e o apoio governamental para a inovação tecnológica.
Resumo:
What does it take to make a coalition successful? Bigger coalitions are more likely to be successful because the GATT/WTO is a consensus-based institution and countries are informally penalized if they isolate themselves. Through a Bayesian statistical analysis, the article corroborates the above hypothesis. To further investigate the research question, qualitative case studies of the G-10 in the Uruguay Round and the Public Health Coalition in the Doha Round are conducted. These cases show that the more convincing the framing of a position, the better are the chances of coalitions keeping a large number of followers and supporters, thereby affecting their odds of success. By building a unique database and applying a new research design to the topic, the study rigorously tests theories about coalitions that had previously only been proposed but not empirically analyzed.
Resumo:
The first part of my work consisted in samplings conduced in nine different localities of the salento peninsula and Apulia (Italy): Costa Merlata (BR), Punta Penne (BR), Santa Cesarea terme (LE), Santa Caterina (LE), Torre Inserraglio (LE), Torre Guaceto (BR), Porto Cesareo (LE), Otranto (LE), Isole Tremiti (FG). I collected data of species percentage covering from the infralittoral rocky zone, using squares of 50x50 cm. We considered 3 sites for location and 10 replicates for each site, which has been taken randomly. Then I took other data about the same places, collected in some years, and I combined them together, to do a spatial analysis. So I started from a data set of 1896 samples but I decided not to consider time as a factor because I have reason to think that in this period of time anthropogenic stressors and their effects (if present), didn’t change considerably. The response variable I’ve analysed is the covering percentage of an amount of 243 species (subsequently merged into 32 functional groups), including seaweeds, invertebrates, sediment and rock. 2 After the sampling, I have been spent a period of two months at the Hopkins Marine Station of Stanford University, in Monterey (California,USA), at Fiorenza Micheli's laboratory. I've been carried out statistical analysis on my data set, using the software PRIMER 6. My explorative analysis starts with a nMDS in PRIMER 6, considering the original data matrix without, for the moment, the effect of stressors. What comes out is a good separation between localities and it confirms the result of ANOSIM analysis conduced on the original data matrix. What is possible to ensure is that there is not a separation led by a geographic pattern, but there should be something else that leads the differences. Is clear the presence of at least three groups: one composed by Porto cesareo, Torre Guaceto and Isole tremiti (the only marine protected areas considered in this work); another one by Otranto, and the last one by the rest of little, impacted localities. Inside the localities that include MPA(Marine Protected Areas), is also possible to observe a sort of grouping between protected and controlled areas. What comes out from SIMPER analysis is that the most of the species involved in leading differences between populations are not rare species, like: Cystoseira spp., Mytilus sp. and ECR. Moreover I assigned discrete values (0,1,2) of each stressor to all the sites I considered, in relation to the intensity with which the anthropogenic factor affect the localities. 3 Then I tried to estabilish if there were some significant interactions between stressors: by using Spearman rank correlation and Spearman tables of significance, and taking into account 17 grades of freedom, the outcome shows some significant stressors interactions. Then I built a nMDS considering the stressors as response variable. The result was positive: localities are well separeted by stressors. Consequently I related the matrix with 'localities and species' with the 'localities and stressors' one. Stressors combination explains with a good significance level the variability inside my populations. I tried with all the possible data transformations (none, square root, fourth root, log (X+1), P/A), but the fourth root seemed to be the best one, with the highest level of significativity, meaning that also rare species can influence the result. The challenge will be to characterize better which kind of stressors (including also natural ones), act on the ecosystem; and give them a quantitative and more accurate values, trying to understand how they interact (in an additive or non-additive way).
Resumo:
Precision horticulture and spatial analysis applied to orchards are a growing and evolving part of precision agriculture technology. The aim of this discipline is to reduce production costs by monitoring and analysing orchard-derived information to improve crop performance in an environmentally sound manner. Georeferencing and geostatistical analysis coupled to point-specific data mining allow to devise and implement management decisions tailored within the single orchard. Potential applications range from the opportunity to verify in real time along the season the effectiveness of cultural practices to achieve the production targets in terms of fruit size, number, yield and, in a near future, fruit quality traits. These data will impact not only the pre-harvest but their effect will extend to the post-harvest sector of the fruit chain. Chapter 1 provides an updated overview on precision horticulture , while in Chapter 2 a preliminary spatial statistic analysis of the variability in apple orchards is provided before and after manual thinning; an interpretation of this variability and how it can be managed to maximize orchard performance is offered. Then in Chapter 3 a stratification of spatial data into management classes to interpret and manage spatial variation on the orchard is undertaken. An inverse model approach is also applied to verify whether the crop production explains environmental variation. In Chapter 4 an integration of the techniques adopted before is presented. A new key for reading the information gathered within the field is offered. The overall goal of this Dissertation was to probe into the feasibility, the desirability and the effectiveness of a precision approach to fruit growing, following the lines of other areas of agriculture that already adopt this management tool. As existing applications of precision horticulture already had shown, crop specificity is an important factor to be accounted for. This work focused on apple because of its importance in the area where the work was carried out, and worldwide.
Resumo:
Most of current ultra-miniaturized devices are obtained by the top-down approach, in which nanoscale components are fabricated by cutting down larger precursors. Since this physical-engineering method is reaching its limits, especially for components below 30 nm in size, alternative strategies are necessary. Of particular appeal to chemists is the supramolecular bottom-up approach to nanotechnology, a methodology that utilizes the principles of molecular recognition to build materials and devices from molecular components. The subject of this thesis is the photophysical and electrochemical investigation of nanodevices obtained harnessing the principles of supramolecular chemistry. These systems operate in solution-based environments and are investigated at the ensemble level. The majority of the chemical systems discussed here are based on pseudorotaxanes and catenanes. Such supramolecular systems represent prototypes of molecular machines since they are capable of performing simple controlled mechanical movements. Their properties and operation are strictly related to the supramolecular interactions between molecular components (generally photoactive or electroactive molecules) and to the possibility of modulating such interactions by means of external stimuli. The main issues addressed throughout the thesis are: (i) the analysis of the factors that can affect the architecture and perturb the stability of supramolecular systems; (ii) the possibility of controlling the direction of supramolecular motions exploiting the molecular information content; (iii) the development of switchable supramolecular polymers starting from simple host-guest complexes; (iv) the capability of some molecular machines to process information at molecular level, thus behaving as logic devices; (v) the behaviour of molecular machine components in a biological-type environment; (vi) the study of chemically functionalized metal nanoparticles by second harmonic generation spectroscopy.
Resumo:
Die Fragmentierung von Waldgebieten, der Verlust geeigneter Habitate, die Invasion exotischer Arten und globale Klimaveränderung haben auf Artengemeinschaften erhebliche Auswirkungen. Vögel dienen in vielen Fällen als Indikatorarten für Umweltveränderungen und, besonders, für Veränderungen im Zusammenhang mit globaler Erwärmung. In meiner Arbeit habe ich zuerst einen Literaturüberblick über die Auswirkungen globaler Klimaveränderung auf die Verbreitungsgebiete, den Artenreichtum und die Zusammensetzung von Vogelgemeinschaften dargestellt. Zahlreiche Untersuchungen zeigen, daß die Grenzen der Verbreitungsgebiete der meisten Vogelarten mit klimatischen Faktoren korrelieren. Verschiebungen der Verbreitungsgebiete in nördliche Richtung oder in höhere Regionen im Gebirge konnten bereits für viele temperate Vogelarten beobachtet werden. Weiterhin wurde ein zunehmender Artenreichtum besonders in nördlichen Breiten und in höheren Lagen für viele temperate Vogelgemeinschaften vorhergesagt. In trockenen Gebieten ist dagegen mit einer Abnahme des Artenreichtums zu rechnen. Im zweiten Teil meiner Arbeit habe ich untersucht, ob beobachtete Veränderungen in der Zusammensetzung europäischer Vogelgemeinschaften tatsächlich durch aktuelle Klimaveränderungen beeinflußt werden. Das Zugverhalten der Arten war dabei ein Schwerpunkt der Untersuchung, weil zu erwarten war, daß Vogelarten mit verschiedenem Zugverhalten unterschiedlich auf Klimaveränderungen reagieren. Ich habe ein Regressionsmodell genutzt, welches die räumliche Beziehung zwischen dem Anteil von Langstreckenziehern, Kurzstreckenziehern und Standvögeln in europäischen Vogelgemeinschaften und verschiedenen Klimavariablen beschreibt. Für 21 Gebiete in Europa habe ich Daten über beobachtete Veränderungen in der Struktur der Vogelgemeinschaften und isochrone Klimaveränderungen zusammengetragen. Mit Hilfe dieser Klimaveränderungen und dem räumlichen Regressionsmodell konnte ich berechnen, welche Veränderungen in den Vogelgemeinschaften aufgrund der veränderten Klimabedingungen zu erwarten wären und sie mit beobachteten Veränderungen vergleichen. Beobachtete und berechnete Veränderungen korrelierten signifikant miteinander. Die beobachteten Veränderungen konnten nicht durch räumliche Autokorrelationseffekte oder durch alternative Faktoren, wie z.B. Veränderungen in der Landnutzung, erklärt werden. Im dritten Teil der Arbeit untersuchte ich für eine mitteleuropäische Vogelgemeinschaft welchen Einfluß Habitatveränderungen, die Invasion exotischer Arten und die Klimaveränderung auf Veränderungen der Häufigkeit und Verbreitungsgröße der 159 Vogelarten am Bodensee zwischen 1980-1981 und 2000-2002 hatten. Dabei konnte gezeigt werden, daß Veränderungen in der regionalen Abundanz sowohl durch Habitatveränderungen als auch durch Klimavänderungen hervorgerufen wurden. Exotische Arten schienen in dieser Zeit keinen bedeutenden Einfluß zu haben. Besonders bei Agrarlandarten, Arten mit nördlicheren Verbreitungsgebieten und bei Langstreckenziehern konnten signifikante Abnahmen in der Abundanz beobachtet werden. Vor allem die anhaltenden negativen Bestandsveränderungen bei Langstreckenziehern und die in den letzten zehn Jahren aufgetretenen Abnahmen nördlicher verbreiteter Vogelarten deuten darauf hin, daß die Klimaveränderung aktuell als der größte Einfluß für Vögel in Europa angesehen werden muß. Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit, daß sich der anhaltende Druck auf die Umwelt in erster Linie durch Habitat- und Klimaveränderungen manifestiert.
Resumo:
General aim of the study is equine welfare, particularly concerning different husbandry methodic and inter-specific relational factors. Specific aim is the evaluation of possible mutual (to humans and to equines) benefits and the analysis of critical factors/strength points, of human-horse relationship within Therapeutic Riding context (TR). The peculiarities of human-horse relationship (compared to the bond with “Pet”) are analyzed, concerning their socio-anthropological, psychological, psycho-dynamic distinctive characteristics. 8 European representative therapeutic riding centers (TRC) were therefore selected (on the basis of their different animals’ husbandry criteria, and of the different rehabilitative methodologies adopted). TRC were investigated through 2 different questionnaires, specifically settled to access objective/subjective animal welfare parameters; the quality of human-horse relationship; technicians’ emotional experienced. 3 Centers were further selected, and behavioral (145 hours of behavioral recording) and physiological parameters (heart rate and heart rate variability) were evaluated, aimed to access equine welfare and horses’ adaptive responses/coping (towards general environment and towards TR job). Moreover a specific “handling-task” was ideated and experimented, aimed to measure the quality of TR technicians-horses relationship. We did therefore evaluate both the individual horses’ responses and the possible differences among Centers. Data collected highlight the lack of univocal standardized methodic, concerning the general animals’ management and the specific methodologies (aimed to improve animal welfare and to empower TR efficacy). Some positive and some critical aspects were detected concerning TR personnel-horse relationship. Another experimental approach did evaluate the efficacy (concerning the mutual benefits’ empowerment) of an “ethologically-fitted” TR intervention, aimed to educate children to and through the relationship with horses. Our data evidenced that the improvement of human horse relationship, through structured educational programs for TR personnel might have important consequences both to human and equine welfare.
Resumo:
Die Analyse der Einflussfaktoren Kapselmaterial, Trägerlaktose, Additiv-Anteil, Mischreihenfolge und mechanische Belastung ergibt verschiedene Haupteinflussfaktoren und kombinierte Wechselwirkungen, die einen deutlichen Effekt auf die aerodynamischen Eigenschaften (ausgebrachte Dosis und Verteilung des aerodynamischen Feinanteils) haben. Sowohl das Kapselmaterial als auch die Trägerlaktose werden als primäre Einflussfaktoren identifiziert: Mit „inerten” PE-Kapseln lassen sich höhere Resultate erzielen als mit „adhäsiven” Gelatine-Kapseln, während „feines” Trägermaterial die Ausbringung stärker fördert, als „grobes“ Trägermaterial. Alles Faktoren, die sich in gleicher Weise auf die Verteilung des aerodynamischen Feinanteils auswirken. Der zur binären Mischung zugefügte Additiv-Anteil führt neben einem ausgeprägten kapselmaterialabhängigen Effekt auf die Höhe der ausgebrachten Dosis auch zu einer Steigerung in der Verteilung des aerodynamischen Feinanteils („Umhüllungseffekt”), was durch die Variation der Mischreihenfolge anschaulich nachgewiesen wird. Die anschließende detaillierte Charakterisierung der beobachteten Effekte auf Basis von Partikelmorphologie und Oberflächenstruktur der Kapseln führt zu einer Differenzierung in Partikel-Partikel-Wechselwirkungen (z.B. „Umhüllungseffekt”, „Multiplets“) und Partikel-Kapsel- Wechselwirkungen (z.B. „Auspudereffekt”). Durch Entwicklung von analytischen Verfahren wird eine Quantifizierung der Trägerlaktose möglich, was für den Nachweis einer positiven Korrelation zwischen den aerodynamischen Eigenschaften von Wirkstoff und Trägerlaktose notwendig ist. Sowohl für die ausgebrachte Dosis als auch für die Verteilung des aerodynamischen Feinanteils zeigt sich ein parallel verlaufender Anstieg der Ergebnisse.
Resumo:
La ricerca proposta si pone l’obiettivo di definire e sperimentare un metodo per un’articolata e sistematica lettura del territorio rurale, che, oltre ad ampliare la conoscenza del territorio, sia di supporto ai processi di pianificazione paesaggistici ed urbanistici e all’attuazione delle politiche agricole e di sviluppo rurale. Un’approfondita disamina dello stato dell’arte riguardante l’evoluzione del processo di urbanizzazione e le conseguenze dello stesso in Italia e in Europa, oltre che del quadro delle politiche territoriali locali nell’ambito del tema specifico dello spazio rurale e periurbano, hanno reso possibile, insieme a una dettagliata analisi delle principali metodologie di analisi territoriale presenti in letteratura, la determinazione del concept alla base della ricerca condotta. E’ stata sviluppata e testata una metodologia multicriteriale e multilivello per la lettura del territorio rurale sviluppata in ambiente GIS, che si avvale di algoritmi di clustering (quale l’algoritmo IsoCluster) e classificazione a massima verosimiglianza, focalizzando l’attenzione sugli spazi agricoli periurbani. Tale metodo si incentra sulla descrizione del territorio attraverso la lettura di diverse componenti dello stesso, quali quelle agro-ambientali e socio-economiche, ed opera una sintesi avvalendosi di una chiave interpretativa messa a punto allo scopo, l’Impronta Agroambientale (Agro-environmental Footprint - AEF), che si propone di quantificare il potenziale impatto degli spazi rurali sul sistema urbano. In particolare obiettivo di tale strumento è l’identificazione nel territorio extra-urbano di ambiti omogenei per caratteristiche attraverso una lettura del territorio a differenti scale (da quella territoriale a quella aziendale) al fine di giungere ad una sua classificazione e quindi alla definizione delle aree classificabili come “agricole periurbane”. La tesi propone la presentazione dell’architettura complessiva della metodologia e la descrizione dei livelli di analisi che la compongono oltre che la successiva sperimentazione e validazione della stessa attraverso un caso studio rappresentativo posto nella Pianura Padana (Italia).
Resumo:
Parasitic wasps attack a number of insect species on which they feed, either externally or internally. This requires very effective strategies for suppressing the immune response and a finely tuned interference with the host physiology that is co-opted for the developing parasitoid progeny. The wealth of physiological host alterations is mediated by virulence factors encoded by the wasp or, in some cases, by polydnaviruses (PDVs), unique viral symbionts injected into the host at oviposition along with the egg, venom and ovarian secretions. PDVs are among the most powerful immunosuppressors in nature, targeting insect defense barriers at different levels. During my PhD research program I have used Drosophila melanogaster as a model to expand the functional analysis of virulence factors encoded by PDV focusing on the molecular processes underlying the disruption of the host endocrine system. I focused my research on a member of the ankyrin (ank) gene family, an immunosuppressant found in bracovirus, which associates with the parasitic wasp Toxoneuron nigriceps. I found that ankyrin disrupts ecdysone biosynthesis by impairing the vesicular traffic of ecdysteroid precursors in the cells of the prothoracic gland and results in developmental arrest.
Resumo:
In Switzerland, every physician has the right to report a patient that is potentially unfit to drive to the licensing authority without violating medical confidentiality. Verified information regarding physicians' attitudes concerning this discretionary reporting and the frequency of such reports are not available. In order to answer these questions, 635 resident physicians were sent a questionnaire. The response rate was 52%. On average, the responding physicians--for all specialties--reported 0.31 patients (SD 0.64, 95% CI 0.24-0.38) in the year before the survey and 1.00 patient (SD 1.74, 95% CI 0.81-1.20) in the past 5 years. Seventy-nine percent of the responding physicians indicated knowing the current legal requirements for driving in Switzerland. In applied logistic regression analysis, only two factors correlate significantly with reporting: male sex (odds ratio 5.4) and the specialty "general medicine" (odds ratio 3.4). Ninety-seven percent of the physicians were against abolishing medical discretionary reporting and 29% were in favor of introducing mandatory reporting. The great majority of the questioned physicians supported the discretionary reporting of drivers that are potentially unfit to drive as currently practiced in Switzerland. The importance and the necessity of a regular traffic medicine-related continuing education for medical professionals are shown by the low number of reports per physician.
Resumo:
Detecting small amounts of genetic subdivision across geographic space remains a persistent challenge. Often a failure to detect genetic structure is mistaken for evidence of panmixia, when more powerful statistical tests may uncover evidence for subtle geographic differentiation. Such slight subdivision can be demographically and evolutionarily important as well as being critical for management decisions. We introduce here a method, called spatial analysis of shared alleles (SAShA), that detects geographically restricted alleles by comparing the spatial arrangement of allelic co-occurrences with the expectation under panmixia. The approach is allele-based and spatially explicit, eliminating the loss of statistical power that can occur with user-defined populations and statistical averaging within populations. Using simulated data sets generated under a stepping-stone model of gene flow, we show that this method outperforms spatial autocorrelation (SA) and UST under common real-world conditions: at relatively high migration rates when diversity is moderate or high, especially when sampling is poor. We then use this method to show clear differences in the genetic patterns of 2 nearshore Pacific mollusks, Tegula funebralis (5 Chlorostoma funebralis) and Katharina tunicata, whose overall patterns of within-species differentiation are similar according to traditional population genetics analyses. SAShA meaningfully complements UST/FST, SA, and other existing geographic genetic analyses and is especially appropriate for evaluating species with high gene flow and subtle genetic differentiation.