898 resultados para Bayesian shared component model
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In this paper a model, called ELLOBO running in STELLA II, was set to describe the plankton system of the Broa reservoir (SP). The three state variables of the model are: phytoplankton, zooplankton, and the fish Astyanax fasciatus. The forcing variables are: temperature, nitrate, phosphorus and solar radiation. The model did not consider the cycling of nutrients inside the reservoir. The results show that: temperature is the principal forcing variable in the phytoplankton dynamic and in the subsequent evolution of the whole system. The zooplankton predation was described by Odum's equation, and there is a strong random component in zooplankton grazing, which was essential for the model, because zooplankton estimates have high variance. One must collect data in a short space of time (maybe daily) to better explain the zooplankton and phytoplankton variation. Validation was performed using simple statistics (arithmetic mean, standard deviation) and the results show concordance between observed and simulated values. Overhead was used to calibrate some parameters and to validate the model. The highest overhead value (5%) imply in the better accordance between estimated and;observed state variables values. We believe this approach in Broa reservoir will provide an useful tool for future research and it could be used comparatively in other continental aquatic ecosystems. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Knowledge of structural and physiological differences among the prostatic lobes (PL) is the basis for development of experimental studies in traditional laboratory rodents. Although Mongolian gerbil reproductive organs have been increasingly investigated, its prostate structure is far from being properly known, and investigations of this organ focused on the ventral lobe (VL). Thus, the present study provides a thorough morphological description of prostatic complex in the male adult gerbil on the basis of topographic, histological, and ultrastructural analysis and ductal branching. Like other rodents, four pairs of PL were observed. However, in contrast to the rat and mouse, the VL is the least voluminous component and the dorsolateral lobe (DLL) is the most prominent and spatially isolated from remaining PL. The occurrence of a dorsal lobe (DL), hidden between bladder and insertion of seminal vesicles, has not been mentioned in previous reports with Mongolian gerbil. Collagenase digestion followed by microdissection revealed that, except for DL, which has a tubularacinar organization, all PL exhibit tubular organization and variable ductal branching. Distinct histological and ultrastructural features such as secretory epithelium, aspect of luminal secretion and stromal organization are reported for each PL and are confirmed by morphometric and stereological methods. Histological sections showed at least three intralobar segments in VL and DL. Ultrastructural analysis evidenced that, although luminal epithelial cells of PL share typical features of exocrine secretory cells, there are striking lobe phenotypical variations. Both merocrine and apocrine pathways are observed in variable rates in all PL, with the predominance of the former in the DLL and the latter in the CG. The morphological observations presented herein point to distinct structural identities for each PL, which probably reflects,specific functional compromise of seminal fluid secretion. These data also point to the gerbil as a good model for investigations concerning the regulation of prostate development and homeostasis, mainly with regard to the dorsal and dorsolateral PL.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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The kaon electromagnetic (e.m.) form factor is reviewed considering a light-front constituent quark model. In this approach, it is discussed the relevance of the quark-antiquark pair terms for the full covariance of the e.m. current. It is also verified, by considering a QCD dynamical model, that a good agreement with experimental data can be obtained for the kaon weak decay constant once a probability of about 80% of the valence component is taken into account.
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We study the scaling of the S-3(1)-S-1(0) meson mass splitting and the pseudoscalar weak-decay constants with the mass of the meson, as seen in the available experimental data. We use an effective light-front QCD-inspired dynamical model regulated at short distances to describe the valence component of the pseudoscalar mesons. The experimentally known values of the mass splitting, decay constants (from global lattice-QCD averages) and the pion charge form factor up to 4 [GeV/c](2) are reasonably described by the model.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar a associação genética entre escores visuais de conformação e as características de ganho de peso médio diário e de velocidade de crescimento em bovinos da raça Angus à desmama e ao sobreano. Os componentes de covariância foram estimados por modelo animal de análise tetracaracterística, com uso do método de inferência bayesiana, tendo-se assumido o modelo linear para: ganho de peso médio diário do nascimento à desmama (GMD) e da desmama ao sobreano (GMS); e velocidade de ganho de peso do nascimento à desmama (VD) e da desmama ao sobreano (VS). Um modelo não linear (de limiar) foi utilizado para os escores de conformação à desmama (CD) e ao sobreano (CS). As médias a posteriori, para a herdabilidade direta, foram: 0,12±0,023 (CD), 0,15±0,020 (GMD), 0,15±0,024 (VD), 0,17±0,020 (CS), 0,17±0,023(GMS), e 0,17±0,023 (VS). A correlação genética variou de -0,09±0,11 a 0,60±0,06, entre os escores CD e CS e as características de ganho médio diário de peso e velocidade de ganho de peso. A correlação entre CD e CS foi 0,52±0,089. A seleção direta para escores visuais de conformação, ganho médio diário e velocidade de ganho responde de forma lenta à seleção, tanto à desmama como ao sobreano.
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In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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The objective of this work was to evaluate the Nelore beef cattle, growth curve parameters using the Von Bertalanffy function in a nested Bayesian procedure that allowed estimation of the joint posterior distribution of growth curve parameters, their (co)variance components, and the environmental and additive genetic components affecting them. A hierarchical model was applied; each individual had a growth trajectory described by the nonlinear function, and each parameter of this function was considered to be affected by genetic and environmental effects that were described by an animal model. Random samples of the posterior distributions were drawn using Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms. The data set consisted of a total of 145,961 BW recorded from 15,386 animals. Even though the curve parameters were estimated for animals with few records, given that the information from related animals and the structure of systematic effects were considered in the curve fitting, all mature BW predicted were suitable. A large additive genetic variance for mature BW was observed. The parameter a of growth curves, which represents asymptotic adult BW, could be used as a selection criterion to control increases in adult BW when selecting for growth rate. The effect of maternal environment on growth was carried through to maturity and should be considered when evaluating adult BW. Other growth curve parameters showed small additive genetic and maternal effects. Mature BW and parameter k, related to the slope of the curve, presented a large, positive genetic correlation. The results indicated that selection for growth rate would increase adult BW without substantially changing the shape of the growth curve. Selection to change the slope of the growth curve without modifying adult BW would be inefficient because their genetic correlation is large. However, adult BW could be considered in a selection index with its corresponding economic weight to improve the overall efficiency of beef cattle production.
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The objectives of the current study were to assess the feasibility of using stayability traits to improve fertility of Nellore cows and to examine the genetic relationship among the stayabilities at different ages. Stayability was defined as whether a cow calved every year up to the age of 5 (Stay5), 6 (Stay6), or 7 (Stay7) yr of age or more, given that she was provided the opportunity to breed. Data were analyzed based on a maximum a posteriori probit threshold model to predict breeding values on the liability scale, whereas the Gibbs sampler was used to estimate variance components. The EBV were obtained using all animals included in the pedigree or bulls with at least 10 daughters with stayability observations, and average genetic trends were obtained in the liability and transformed to the probability scale. Additional analyses were performed to study the genetic relationship among stayability traits, which were compared by contrasting results in terms of EBV and the average genetic superiority as a function of the selected proportion of sires. Heritability estimates and SD were 0.25 +/- 0.02, 0.22 +/- 0.03, and 0.28 +/- 0.03 for Stay5, Stay6, and Stay7, respectively. Average genetic trends, by year, were 0.51 +/- 0.34, and 0.38% for Stay5, Stay6, and Stay7, respectively. Estimates of EBV SD, in the probability scale, for all animals included in the pedigree and for bulls with at least 10 daughters with stayability observations were 7.98 and 12.95, 6.93 and 11.38, and 8.24 and 14.30% for Stay5, Stay6, and Stay7, respectively. A reduction in the average genetic superiorities in Stay7 would be expected if the selection were based on Stay5 or Stay6. Nonetheless, the reduction in EPD, depending on selection intensity, is on average 0.74 and 1.55%, respectively. Regressions of the sires' EBV for Stay5 and Stay6 on the sires' EBV for Stay7 confirmed these results. The heritability and genetic trend estimates for all stayability traits indicate that it is possible to improve fertility with selection based on a threshold analysis of stayability. The SD of EBV for stayability traits show that there is adequate genetic variability among animals to justify inclusion of stayability as a selection criterion. The potential linear relationship among stayability traits indicates that selection for improved female traits would be more effective by having predictions on the Stay5 trait.
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In the present work we numerically simulated the motion of particles coorbital to a small satellite under the Poynting-Robertson light drag effect in order to verify the symmetry suggested by Dermott et al. (1979, 1980) on their ring confinement model. The results reveal a more complex scenario, especially for very small particles (micrometer sizes), which present chaotic motion. Despite the complexity of the trajectories the particles remain confined inside the coorbital region. However, the dissipative force caused by the solar radiation also includes the radiation pressure component which can change this configuration. Our results show that the inclusion of the radiation pressure, which is not present in the original confinement model, can destroy the configuration in a time much shorter than the survival time predicted for a dust particle in a horseshoe orbit with a satellite.
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A relativistic treatment of the deuteron and its observables based on a two-body Dirac (Breit) equation, with phenomenological interactions, associated to one-boson exchanges with cutoff masses, is presented. The 16-component wave function for the deuteron (J(pi) = 1+) solution contains four independent radial functions which obey a system of four coupled differential equations of first order. This radial system is numerically integrated, from infinity to the origin, by fixing the value of the deuteron binding energy and using appropriate boundary conditions at infinity. Specific examples of mixtures containing scalar, pseudoscalar and vector like terms are discussed in some detail and several observables of the deuteron are calculated. Our treatment differs from more conventional ones in that nonrelativistic reductions of the order c-2 are not used.
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The Leishmania amazonensis telomerase gene was cloned by a polymerase chain reaction-based strategy using primers designed from a Leishmania major sequence that shared similarities with conserved telomerase motifs. The genes from three other species were cloned for comparative purposes. A ClustalW multiple-sequence alignment demonstrated that the Leishmania telomerases show greater homology with each other than with the proteins of other kinetoplastids and eukaryotes. Characterization experiments indicated that the putative Leishmania telomerase gene was probably in single copy and located in the largest chromosomes. A single messenger ribonucleic acid transcript was found in promastigotes. Phylogenetic analysis suggested that Leishmania telomerase might represent a liaison between the oldest and the newest branches of telomerases.