967 resultados para Bayesian hypothesis testing
Resumo:
Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the scale of a field site represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed downscaling procedure based on a non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation approach. The main objective of this algorithm is to estimate the value of the sparsely sampled hydraulic conductivity at non-sampled locations based on its relation to the electrical conductivity logged at collocated wells and surface resistivity measurements, which are available throughout the studied site. The in situ relationship between the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is described through a non-parametric multivariatekernel density function. Then a stochastic integration of low-resolution, large-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is applied. The overall viability of this downscaling approach is tested and validated by comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure allows obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.
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The aim of this study was to investigate the correlation between proportion method with mycobacteria growth indicator tube (MGIT) and E-test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Forty clinical isolates were tested. MGIT and E-test with the first line antituberculous drugs correlated with the proportion method. Our results suggested that MGIT and E-test methods can be routinely used instead of the proportion method.
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This study on determinants of sexual protection behavior among HIV-positive gay men used the empirically tested information-motivation-behavioral skills (IMB) model. HIV-specific variables were added to the model to determine factors decisive for condom use with steady and casual partners. Data were collected using an anonymous, standardized self-administered questionnaire. Study participants were recruited at HIV outpatient clinics associated with the Eurosupport Study Group and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. To identify factors associated with condom use, backward elimination regression analyses were performed. Overall, 838 HIV-infected gay men from 14 European countries were included in this analysis. About 53% of them reported at least one sexual contact with a steady partner; 62.5% had sex with a casual partner during the last 6 months. Forty-three percent always used condoms with steady partners and 44% with casual partners. High self-efficacy and subjective norms in favor of condom-use were associated with increased condom use with casual and steady partners, whereas feeling depressed was associated with decreased condom use with casual partners. Condoms were used less often with HIV-positive partners. Self-efficacy as an important behavioral skill to perform protection behavior was influenced by lower perceived vulnerability, higher subjective norms, and more positive safer sex attitudes. The IMB-model constructs appeared to be valid; however, not all the model predictors could be determined as hypothesized. Besides the original IMB constructs, HIV-specific variables, including sexual partners' serostatus and mental health, explained condom use. Such factors should be considered in clinical interventions to promote "positive prevention."
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Crizotinib is a first-in-class oral anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) inhibitor targeting ALK-rearranged non-small-cell lung cancer. The therapy was approved by the US FDA in August 2011 and received conditional marketing approval by the European Commission in October 2012 for advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. A break-apart FISH-based assay was jointly approved with crizotinib by the FDA. This assay and an immunohistochemistry assay that uses a D5F3 rabbit monoclonal primary antibody were also approved for marketing in Europe in October 2012. While ALK rearrangement has relatively low prevalence, a clinical benefit is exhibited in more than 85% of patients with median progression-free survival of 8-10 months. In this article, the authors summarize the therapy and alternative test strategies for identifying patients who are likely to respond to therapy, including key issues for effective and efficient testing. The key economic considerations regarding the joint companion diagnostic and therapy are also presented. Given the observed clinical benefit and relatively high cost of crizotinib therapy, companion diagnostics should be evaluated relative to response to therapy versus correlation alone whenever possible, and both high inter-rater reliability and external quality assessment programs are warranted.
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In altricial birds post-fledging survival is usually positively related to nestling body mass. A large number of studies have shown that the latest hatched chick is the more likely to die, even if food is abundant. Here we suggest that ectoparasites may be a key factor in the evolution and the maintenance of the establishment of weight hierarchies within broods. We prepose the hypothesis that weight hierarchies within broods may be adaptive if the chick in poor condition is the one with the least efficient immune system within a nest. In this case parasites would preferentially feed on such a "tasty chick", because it would allow high reproductive rates for the parasites, without negatively affecting the survival of the other nestlings. This could prevent entire nest failure of the brood or allow the other chicks to grow more efficiently. This hypothesis was investigated in a colony of house martins Delichon urbica. We predicted that immunocompetence was positively correlated with body condition, and that nestlings dying before hedging should have lower immune responses when challenged with an antigen. T-cell immune response to an experimentally injected antigen was strongly positively related to body condition. Non-surviving chicks had low body condition and a weak immune response. The implications of these results are discussed in the context of the adaptive significance of hatching asynchrony.
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AIM: Antidoping procedures are expected to greatly benefit from untargeted metabolomic approaches through the discovery of new biomarkers of prohibited substances abuse. RESULTS: Endogenous steroid metabolites were monitored in urine samples from a controlled elimination study of testosterone undecanoate after ingestion. A platform coupling ultra-high pressure LC with high-resolution quadrupole TOF MS was used and high between-subject metabolic variability was successfully handled using a multiblock data analysis strategy. Links between specific subsets of metabolites and influential genetic polymorphisms of the UGT2B17 enzyme were highlighted. CONCLUSION: This exploratory metabolomic strategy constitutes a first step toward a better understanding of the underlying patterns driving the high interindividual variability of steroid metabolism. Promising biomarkers were selected for further targeted study.
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BACKGROUND: A growing number of patients with chronic hepatitis B is being treated for extended periods with nucleoside and/or nucleotide analogs. In this context, antiviral resistance represents an increasingly common and complex issue. METHODS: Mutations in the hepatitis B virus (HBV) reverse transcriptase (rt) gene and viral genotypes were determined by direct sequencing of PCR products and alignment with reference sequences deposited in GenBank. RESULTS: Plasma samples from 60 patients with chronic hepatitis B were analyzed since March 2009. The predominant mutation pattern identified in patients with virological breakthrough was rtM204V/I ± different compensatory mutations, conferring resistance to L-nucleosides (lamivudine, telbivudine, emtricitabine) and predisposing to entecavir resistance (n = 18). Complex mutation patterns with a potential for multidrug resistance were identified in 2 patients. Selection of a fully entecavir resistant strain was observed in a patient exposed to lamivudine alone. Novel mutations were identified in 1 patient. Wild-type HBV was identified in 9 patients with suspected virological breakthrough, raising concerns about treatment adherence. No preexisting resistance mutations were identified in treatment-naïve patients (n = 13). Viral genome amplification and sequencing failed in 16 patients, of which only 2 had a documented HBV DNA > 1000 IU/ml. HBV genotypes were D in 28, A in 6, B in 4, C in 3 and E in 3 patients. Results will be updated in August 2010 and therapeutic implications discussed. CONCLUSIONS: With expanding treatment options and a growing number of patients exposed to nucleoside and/or nucleotide analogs, sequence-based HBV antiviral resistance testing is expected to become a cornerstone in the management of chronic hepatitis B.
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In order to evaluate the Organon Teknika MB/BacT system used for testing indirect susceptibility to the alternative drugs ofloxacin (OFLO), amikacin (AMI), and rifabutin (RIF), and to the usual drugs of standard treatment regimes such as rifampin (RMP), isoniazid (INH), pyrazinamide (PZA), streptomycin (SM), ethambutol (EMB), and ethionamide (ETH), cultures of clinical specimens from 117 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis under multidrug-resistant investigation, admitted sequentially for examination from 2001 to 2002, were studied. Fifty of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis cultures were inoculated into the gold-standard BACTEC 460 TB (Becton Dickinson) for studying resistance to AMI, RIF, and OFLO, and the remaining 67 were inoculated into Lowenstein Jensen (LJ) medium (the gold standard currently used in Brazil) for studying resistance to RMP, INH, PZA, SM, EMB, and ETH. We observed 100% sensitivity for AMI (80.8-100), RIF (80.8-100), and OFLO (78.1-100); and 100% specificity for AMI (85.4-100), RIF (85.4-100), and OFLO (86.7-100) compared to the BACTEC system. Comparing the results obtained in LJ we observed 100% sensitivity for RMP (80-100), followed by INH - 95% (81.8-99.1), EMB - 94.7% (71.9-99.7), and 100% specificity for all drugs tested except for PZA - 98.3 (89.5-99.9) at 95% confidence interval. The results showed a high level of accuracy and demonstrated that the fully automated, non-radiometric MB/BacT system is indicated for routine use in susceptibility testing in public health laboratories.
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The molluscicidal evaluation of Euphorbia splendens var. hislopii (Crown of thorns) against Lymnaea columella snails, intermediate host of Fasciola hepatica, in irrigation ditches of the Pisciculture Station at Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro, was studied under limited field conditions. An aqueous solution of the latex at 5 mg/l was tested in two irrigation ditches (experimental and control ditches), after initial sampling of the snail population present. Twenty-four hours after application of the product, it was verified that 97.4% of free L. columella snails and 100% of snails of the same species captive in cages and used as sentinels at three points equidistant from the application site in the experimental ditch, died. For Biomphalaria tenagophila and Melanoides tuberculata snails, present in the experimental ditch, the mortality was 100%, for the species Pomacea spp. the mortality was 40%. No mortality was verified in the free mollusks, or in the sentinels in the ditch used as control. E. splendens var. hislopii latex is thus an efficient natural molluscicide, which may be used as an alternative control agent against L. columella.
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In this study, we have evaluated the broth microdilution method (BMM) for susceptibility testing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. A total of 43 clinical isolates of M. tuberculosis and H37Rv as a control strain were studied. All isolates were tested by the proportion method and the BMM for isoniazid (INH), rifampicin (RIF), streptomycin (STR), and ethambutol (ETM). The proportion method was carried out according to the National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards (NCCLS) on Löwenstein-Jensen (LJ) medium. The BMM was carried out using 7H9 broth with 96 well-plates. All strains were tested at 3.2-0.05 µg/ml, 16-0.25 µg/ml, 32-0.5 µg/ml, and 32-0.5 µg/ml concentrations for INH, RIF, STR, and ETM, respectively. When the BMM was compared with the proportion method, sensitivity was 100, 100, 96.9, and 90.2%, while specificity was 100, 85.7, 90.9, and 100% for INH, RIF, STR, and ETM, respectively. The plates were examined 7, 10, 14, and 21 days after incubation. The majority of the result were obtained at 14th days after incubation, while the proportion method result were ended in 21-28 days. According to our results, it may be suggested that the BMM is suitable for early determining of multidrug-resistance-M. tuberculosis strains in developed or developing countries.
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In occupational exposure assessment of airborne contaminants, exposure levels can either be estimated through repeated measurements of the pollutant concentration in air, expert judgment or through exposure models that use information on the conditions of exposure as input. In this report, we propose an empirical hierarchical Bayesian model to unify these approaches. Prior to any measurement, the hygienist conducts an assessment to generate prior distributions of exposure determinants. Monte-Carlo samples from these distributions feed two level-2 models: a physical, two-compartment model, and a non-parametric, neural network model trained with existing exposure data. The outputs of these two models are weighted according to the expert's assessment of their relevance to yield predictive distributions of the long-term geometric mean and geometric standard deviation of the worker's exposure profile (level-1 model). Bayesian inferences are then drawn iteratively from subsequent measurements of worker exposure. Any traditional decision strategy based on a comparison with occupational exposure limits (e.g. mean exposure, exceedance strategies) can then be applied. Data on 82 workers exposed to 18 contaminants in 14 companies were used to validate the model with cross-validation techniques. A user-friendly program running the model is available upon request.
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One hypothesis for the origin of alkaline lavas erupted on oceanic islands and in intracontinental settings is that they represent the melts of amphibole-rich veins in the lithosphere (or melts of their dehydrated equivalents if metasomatized lithosphere is recycled into the convecting mantle). Amphibole-rich veins are interpreted as cumulates produced by crystallization of low-degree melts of the underlying asthenosphere as they ascend through the lithosphere. We present the results of trace-element modelling of the formation and melting of veins formed in this way with the goal of testing this hypothesis and for predicting how variability in the formation and subsequent melting of such cumulates (and adjacent cryptically and modally metasomatized lithospheric peridotite) would be manifested in magmas generated by such a process. Because the high-pressure phase equilibria of hydrous near-solidus melts of garnet lherzolite are poorly constrained and given the likely high variability of the hypothesized accumulation and remelting processes, we used Monte Carlo techniques to estimate how uncertainties in the model parameters (e.g. the compositions of the asthenospheric sources, their trace-element contents, and their degree of melting; the modal proportions of crystallizing phases, including accessory phases, as the asthenospheric partial melts ascend and crystallize in the lithosphere; the amount of metasomatism of the peridotitic country rock; the degree of melting of the cumulates and the amount of melt derived from the metasomatized country rock) propagate through the process and manifest themselves as variability in the trace-element contents and radiogenic isotopic ratios of model vein compositions and erupted alkaline magma compositions. We then compare the results of the models with amphibole observed in lithospheric veins and with oceanic and continental alkaline magmas. While the trace-element patterns of the near-solidus peridotite melts, the initial anhydrous cumulate assemblage (clinopyroxene +/- garnet +/- olivine +/- orthopyroxene), and the modelled coexisting liquids do not match the patterns observed in alkaline lavas, our calculations show that with further crystallization and the appearance of amphibole (and accessory minerals such as rutile, ilmenite, apatite, etc.) the calculated cumulate assemblages have trace-element patterns that closely match those observed in the veins and lavas. These calculated hydrous cumulate assemblages are highly enriched in incompatible trace elements and share many similarities with the trace-element patterns of alkaline basalts observed in oceanic or continental setting such as positive Nb/La, negative Ce/Pb, and similiar slopes of the rare earth elements. By varying the proportions of trapped liquid and thus simulating the cryptic and modal metasomatism observed in peridotite that surrounds these veins, we can model the variations in Ba/Nb, Ce/Pb, and Nb/U ratios that are observed in alkaline basalts. If the isotopic compositions of the initial low-degree peridotite melts are similar to the range observed in mid-ocean ridge basalt, our model calculations produce cumulates that would have isotopic compositions similar to those observed in most alkaline ocean island basalt (OIB) and continental magmas after similar to 0 center dot 15 Gyr. However, to produce alkaline basalts with HIMU isotopic compositions requires much longer residence times (i.e. 1-2 Gyr), consistent with subduction and recycling of metasomatized lithosphere through the mantle. such as a heterogeneous asthenosphere. These modelling results support the interpretation proposed by various researchers that amphibole-bearing veins represent cumulates formed during the differentiation of a volatile-bearing low-degree peridotite melt and that these cumulates are significant components of the sources of alkaline OIB and continental magmas. The results of the forward models provide the potential for detailed tests of this class of hypotheses for the origin of alkaline magmas worldwide and for interpreting major and minor aspects of the geochemical variability of these magmas.
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In light of the recent publication of the safety, Health & Welfare at Work Bill 2004, which is set to target the construction industry in particular, the number of Irish employers implementing drug testing programmes in the workplace is set to increase. Little is known, however, about attitudes of Irish workers towards various aspects of drug testing. In order to address this matter, the author presents the findings of a cross-sectional survey of 148 construction trade apprentices in relation to their attitudes towards aspects of workplace drug testing. The extent to which their attitudes varied according to their levels of illegal drug use and alcohol use was also investigated. The results indicate that under some circumstances, testing is approved of. However, attitudes towards most aspects of drug testing are characterised by extreme variability. For example, nearly items were rejected by some respondents and accepted by others. It can be concluded that even if an employer designed a drug testing programme based on elements viewed more favourably, a substantial proportion of employees would still be likely to hold negative views towards some aspects of the programme. Furthermore, self-reported frequency of alcohol and drug use, particularly cannabis use, was associated to more negative reactions towards drug testing. Implications for implementing drug testing programmes in the workplace are discussed. The results of this study are intended to give employers an increased understanding of workers' attitudes towards drug testing programmes and to aid the development of effective substance-abuse prevention services.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.