904 resultados para 239903 Risk Theory
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The concept of student engagement is a key factor in student achievement and retention and Australasian universities have a range of initiatives aimed at monitoring and intervening with students who are at risk of disengaging. Given the aspirations about widening participation, it is absolutely critical that these initiatives are designed to enable success for all students, particularly those for whom social and cultural disadvantage have been a barrier. Consequently, these types of initiatives must be consistent with the concept of social justice and a set of principles would provide this philosophical foundation for the sector. An Australian Learning and Teaching Council (ALTC) project that involves ten Australasian universities, is designing of a suite of resources for the sector which will include: (1) a set of principles for good practice in MSLE, (2) a good practice guide for the design and implementation of institutional MSLE policy and practice, and (3) a collection of resources for and exemplars of good practice to be taken up by the sector. This workshop session will provide an opportunity for participants to examine the draft set of principles and to discuss their potential value for the participants’ institutional contexts. Australian Learning and Teaching Council Competitive Grant CG10-1730 2010-2012: Good practice for safeguarding student learning engagement in higher education institutions.
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BACKGROUND: Data from prior health scares suggest that an avian influenza outbreak will impact on people’s intention to donate blood; however research exploring this is scarce. Using an augmented theory of planned behavior (TPB), incorporating threat perceptions alongside the rational decision-making components of the TPB, the current study sought to identify predictors of blood donors’ intentions to donate during two phases of an avian influenza outbreak. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Blood donors (N = 172) completed an on-line survey assessing the standard TPB predictors as well as measures of threat perceptions from the health belief model (HBM; i.e., perceived susceptibility and severity). Path analyses examined the utility of the augmented TPB to predict donors’ intentions to donate during a low- and high-risk phase of an avian influenza outbreak. RESULTS: In both phases, the model provided a good fit to the data explaining 69% (low risk) and 72% (high risk) of the variance in intentions. Attitude, subjective norm, and perceived susceptibility significantly predicted donor intentions in both phases. Within the low-risk phase, gender was an additional significant predictor of intention, while in the high-risk phase, perceived behavioral control was significantly related to intentions. CONCLUSION: An augmented TPB model can be used to predict donors’ intentions to donate blood in a low-risk and a high-risk phase of an outbreak of avian influenza. As such, the results provide important insights into donors’ decision-making that can be used by blood agencies to maintain the blood supply in the context of an avian influenza outbreak.
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Annually, in Australia, 10-15% of all road-related fatalities involve pedestrians. Of those pedestrians fatally injured, approximately 45% were walking while intoxicated or 'drink walking'. Drink walking is increasing in prevalence and younger persons may be especially prone to engage in this behaviour and, thus, are at heightened risk of being injured or killed. Presently, limited research is available regarding the factors which influence individuals to drink walk. This study explored young people's (17-25 years) intentions to drink walk, using an extended Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Participants (N = 215), completed a self-report questionnaire which assessed the standard TPB constructs (attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control) as well as the extended constructs of risk perception, anticipated regret, and past behaviour. It was hypothesised that the standard TPB constructs would significantly predict individuals' reported intentions to drink walk and that the additional constructs would predict intentions over and above the TPB constructs. The TPB variables significantly predicted 63.2% of the variance in individuals' reported intentions to drink walk, and the additional variables, combined, explained a further 6.1% of the variance. Of the additional constructs, anticipated regret and past behaviour, but not risk perception, were significant predictors of drink walking intentions. As one of the first studies to provide a theoretically-based investigation of factors influencing individuals' drink walking intentions, the current study's findings have potentially significant implications for understanding young people's decisions to drink walk and the design of future countermeasures to ultimately reduce this behaviour.
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In this paper a new graph-theory and improved genetic algorithm based practical method is employed to solve the optimal sectionalizer switch placement problem. The proposed method determines the best locations of sectionalizer switching devices in distribution networks considering the effects of presence of distributed generation (DG) in fitness functions and other optimization constraints, providing the maximum number of costumers to be supplied by distributed generation sources in islanded distribution systems after possible faults. The proposed method is simulated and tested on several distribution test systems in both cases of with DG and non DG situations. The results of the simulations validate the proposed method for switch placement of the distribution network in the presence of distributed generation.
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Business Process Management (BPM) is a topic that continues to grow in significance as organisations seek to gain and sustain competitive advantage in an increasingly global environment. Despite anecdotal evidence of organisations improving performance by pursuing a BPM approach, there is little theory that explains and substantiates this relationship. This study provides the first theory on the progression and maturity of BPM Initiatives within organisations and provides a vital starting block upon which future research in this area can build. The Researcher starts by clearly defining three key terms (BPM Initiative, BPM Progression and BPM Maturity), showing the relationship between these three concepts and proposing their relationship with Organisational Performance. The Researcher then combines extant literature and use of the Delphi Technique and the case study method to explore the progression and measurement of the BPM Initiatives within organisations. The study builds upon the principles of general theories including the Punctuated Equilibrium Model and Dynamic Capabilities to present theory on BPM Progression and BPM Maturity. Using the BPM Capability Framework developed through an international Delphi study series, the Researcher shows how the specific organisational context influences which capability areas an organisation chooses to progress. By comparing five separate organisations over an extended time the Researcher is able to show that, despite this disparity, there is some evidence of consistency with regard to the capability areas progressed. This suggests that subsequent identification of progression paths may be possible. The study also shows that the approach and scope taken to BPM within each organisation is a likely predictor of such paths. These outcomes result in the proposal of a formative model for measuring BPM Maturity.
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A crucial contemporary policy question for governments across the globe is how to cope with international crime and terrorist networks. Many such “dark” networks—that is, networks that operate covertly and illegally—display a remarkable level of resilience when faced with shocks and attacks. Based on an in-depth study of three cases (MK, the armed wing of the African National Congress in South Africa during apartheid; FARC, the Marxist guerrilla movement in Colombia; and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, LTTE, in Sri Lanka), we present a set of propositions to outline how shocks impact dark network characteristics (resources and legitimacy) and networked capabilities (replacing actors, linkages, balancing integration and differentiation) and how these in turn affect a dark network's resilience over time. We discuss the implications of our findings for policymakers.
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Background We investigated the geographical variation of water supply and sanitation indicators (WS&S) and their role to the risk of schistosomiasis and hookworm infection in school age children in West Africa. The aim was to predict large-scale geographical variation in WS&S, quantify the attributable risk of S. haematobium, S. mansoni and hookworm infections due to WS&S and identify communities where sustainable transmission control could be targeted across the region. Methods National cross-sectional household-based demographic health surveys were conducted in 24,542 households in Burkina Faso, Ghana and Mali, in 2003–2006. We generated spatially-explicit predictions of areas without piped water, toilet facilities and finished floors in West Africa, adjusting for household covariates. Using recently published helminth prevalence data we developed Bayesian geostatistical models (MGB) of S. haematobium, S. mansoni and hookworm infection in West Africa including environmental and the mapped outputs for WS&S. Using these models we estimated the effect of WS&S on parasite risk, quantified their attributable fraction of infection, and mapped the risk of infection in West Africa. Findings Our maps show that most areas in West Africa are very poorly served by water supply except in major urban centers. There is a better geographical coverage for toilet availability and improved household flooring. We estimated smaller attributable risks for water supply in S. mansoni (47%) compared to S. haematobium (71%), and 5% of hookworm cases could be averted by improving sanitation. Greater levels of inadequate sanitation increased the risk of schistosomiasis, and increased levels of unsafe water supply increased the risk of hookworm. The role of floor type for S. haematobium infection (21%) was comparable to that of S. mansoni (16%), but was significantly higher for hookworm infection (86%). S. haematobium and hookworm maps accounting for WS&S show small clusters of maximal prevalence areas in areas bordering Burkina Faso and Mali smaller. The map of S. mansoni shows that this parasite is much more wide spread across the north of the Niger River basin than previously predicted. Interpretation Our maps identify areas where the Millennium Development Goal for water and sanitation is lagging behind. Our results show that WS&S are important contributors to the burden of major helminth infections of children in West Africa. Including information about WS&S as well as the “traditional” environmental risk factors in spatial models of helminth risk yielded a substantial gain both in model fit and at explaining the proportion of spatial variance in helminth risk. Mapping the distribution of infection risk adjusted for WS&S allowed the identification of communities in West Africa where integrative preventive chemotherapy and engineering interventions will yield the greatest public health benefits.
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There is a lack of writing on the issue of the education rights of people with disabilities by authors of any theoretical persuasion. While the deficiency of theory may be explained by a variety of historical, philosophical and practical considerations, it is a deficiency which must be addressed. Otherwise, any statement of rights rings out as hollow rhetoric unsupported by sound reason and moral rectitude. This paper attempts to address this deficiency in education rights theory by postulating a communitarian theory of the education rights of people with disabilities. The theory is developed from communitarian writings on the role of education in democratic society. The communitarian school, like the community within which it nests, is inclusive. Schools both reflect and model the shape of communitarian society and have primary responsibility for teaching the knowledge and virtues which will allow citizens to belong to and function within society. Communitarians emphasise responsibilities, however, as the corollary of rights and require the individual good to yield to community good when the hard cases arise. The article not only explains the basis of the right to an inclusive education, therefore, but also engages with the difficult issue of when such a right may not be enforceable.
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The concept of knowledge-based urban development has first come to the urban planning and development agenda during the very last years of the 20th century as a promising paradigm to support the transformation process of cities into knowledge cities and their societies into knowledge societies. However, soon after the exponentially rapid advancements experienced, during the first decade of the 21st century, particularly, in the domains of economy, society, management and technology along with the severe impacts of climate change, have made the redefinition of the term a necessity. This paper, first, reports the findings of the review of the relatively short but dynamic history of urbanisation experiences of our cities around the globe. The paper, then, focuses on the 21st century urbanisation context and discusses the conceptual base of the knowledge-based development of cities and how this concept found application ground in many parts of the world. Following this, the paper speculates development of future cities by particularly highlighting potential challenges and opportunities that previously have not been fully considered. This paper, lastly, introduces and elaborates how relevant theories support the better conceptualisation of this relatively new, but rapidly emerging paradigm, and redefines it accordingly.
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Background: Room ventilation is a key determinant of airborne disease transmission. Despite this, ventilation guidelines in hospitals are not founded on robust scientific evidence related to prevention of airborne transmission. Methods: We sought to assess the effect of ventilation rates on influenza, tuberculosis (TB) and rhinovirus infection risk within three distinct rooms in a major urban hospital; a Lung Function Laboratory, Emergency Department (ED) Negative-pressure Isolation Room and an Outpatient Consultation Room were investigated. Air exchange rate measurements were performed in each room using CO2 as a tracer. Gammaitoni and Nucci’s model was employed to estimate infection risk. Results: Current outdoor air exchange rates in the Lung Function Laboratory and ED Isolation Room limited infection risks to between 0.1 and 3.6%. Influenza risk for individuals entering an Outpatient Consultation Room after an infectious individual departed ranged from 3.6 to 20.7%, depending on the duration for which each person occupied the room. Conclusions: Given the absence of definitive ventilation guidelines for hospitals, air exchange measurements combined with modelling afford a useful means of assessing, on a case-by-case basis, the suitability of room ventilation at preventing airborne disease transmission.
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This article augments Resource Dependence Theory with Real Options reasoning in order to explain time bounds specification in strategic alliances. Whereas prior work has found about a 50/50 split between alliances that are time bound and those that are open-ended, their substantive differences and antecedents are ill understood. To address this, we suggest that the two alliance modes present different real options trade-offs in adaptation to environmental uncertainty: ceteris paribus, time-bound alliances are likely to provide abandonment options over open-ended alliances, but require additional investments to extend the alliance when this turns out to be desirable after formation. Open-ended alliances are likely to provide growth options over open-ended alliances, but they demand additional effort to abandon the alliance if post-formation circumstances so desire. Therefore, we expect time bounds specification to be a function of environmental uncertainty: organizations in more uncertain environments will be relatively more likely to place time bounds on their strategic alliances. Longitudinal archival and survey data collected amongst 39 industry clusters provides empirical support for our claims, which contribute to the recent renaissance of resource dependence theory by specifying the conditions under which organizations choose different time windows in strategic partnering.
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Government promotion of active transport has renewed interest in cycling safety. Research has shown that bicyclists are up to 20 times more likely to be involved in serious injury crashes than drivers. On-road cycling injuries are under-reported in police data, and many non-serious injuries are not recorded in any official database. This study aims to explore the relationships between rider characteristics and environmental factors that influence per kilometre risk of bicycle-related crash and non-crash injuries.
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The safety risk management process describes the systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to the activities of communicating, consulting, establishing the context, and identifying, analysing, evaluating, treating, monitoring and reviewing risk. This process is undertaken to provide assurances that the risks of a particular unmanned aircraft system activity have been managed to an acceptable level. The safety risk management process and its outcomes form part of the documented safety case necessary to obtain approvals for unmanned aircraft system operations. It also guides the development of an organisation’s operations manual and is a primary component of an organisation’s safety management system. The aim of this chapter is to provide existing risk practitioners with a high level introduction to some of the unique issues and challenges in the application of the safety risk management process to unmanned aircraft systems. The scope is limited to safety risks associated with the operation of unmanned aircraft in the civil airspace system and over inhabited areas. The structure of the chapter is based on the safety risk management process as defined by the international risk management standard ISO 31000:2009 and draws on aviation safety resources provided by International Civil Aviation Organization, the Federal Aviation Administration and U.S. Department of Defense. References to relevant aviation safety regulations, programs of research and fielded systems are also provided.
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There appears no shortage of theorists for preservice teacher education; however many ideas are abandoned without practical applications. Indeed, it can take years for theories to materialise into practice, if they materialise at all. The quality of preservice teacher education is central for enhancing an education system, and mentors’ roles can assist to shape preservice teachers’ development within the school context. Yet mentoring can be haphazard without being underpinned by a theoretical framework. A mentoring model (personal attributes, system requirements, pedagogical knowledge, modelling, and feedback) has emerged from research and the literature to guide mentors’ practices. This qualitative study investigates mentors’ pedagogical knowledge as one factor crucial to the mentoring process. More specifically, this study involves a questionnaire and audio-recorded focus group meetings with experienced mentors (n=14) who deliberated on devising practical applications for mentoring pedagogical knowledge. Findings revealed that these experienced mentors pinpointed practical applications around a mentor’s role for providing pedagogical knowledge to the mentee. These strategies were varied and demonstrated that any one mentoring practice may be approached from a number of different angles. Nevertheless, there were core mentoring practices in pedagogical knowledge such as showing the mentee how to plan for teaching, articulating classroom management approaches, and talking about how to connect learning to assessment. Mentors may require education on current mentoring practices with practical strategies that are linked to theoretical underpinnings.