'The application of Bayesian Optimization and Classifier Systems in Nurse Scheduling'

Abstract. Two ideas taken from Bayesian optimization and classifier systems are presented for personnel scheduling based on choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for each person's assignment. Unlike our previous work of using genetic algorithms whose learning is implicit, the learning in both approaches is explicit, i.e. we are able to identify building blocks directly. To achieve this target, the Bayesian optimization algorithm builds a Bayesian network of the joint probability distribution of the rules used to construct solutions, while the adapted classifier system assigns each rule a strength value that is constantly updated according to its usefulness in the current situation. Computational results from 52 real data instances of nurse scheduling demonstrate the success of both approaches. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed approaches might be suitable for other scheduling problems.

Coupled Ge/Si and Ge isotope ratios as geochemical tracers of seafloor hydrothermal systems: Case studies at Loihi Seamount and East Pacific Rise 9°50’N

Germanium (Ge) and Silicon (Si) exhibit similar geochemical behaviour in marine environments but are variably enriched in seafloor hydrothermal fluids relative to seawater. In this study, Ge isotope and Ge/Si ratio systematics were investigated in low temperature hydrothermal vents from Loihi Seamount (Pacific Ocean, 18°54’N, 155°15’W) and results were compared to high-temperature vents from the East Pacific Rise (EPR) at 9°50’N. Loihi offers the opportunity to understand contrasting Ge and Si behaviour in low temperature seafloor hydrothermal systems characterized by abundant Fe oxyhydroxide deposition at the seafloor. The results show that both Ge/Si and δ74/70Ge in hydrothermal fluids are fractionated relative to the basaltic host rocks. The enrichment in Ge vs. Si relative to fresh basalts, together with Ge isotope fractionation (Δ74/70Ge fluid-basalt up to 1.15 ‰ at EPR 9°50’N and 1.64 ‰ at Loihi) are best explained by the precipitation of minerals (e.g. quartz and Fe-sulfides) during higher temperature seawater-rock reactions in the subsurface. The study of Fe-rich hydrothermal deposits at Loihi, largely composed of Fe-oxyhydroxides, shows that Ge isotopes are also fractionated upon mineral precipitation at the seafloor. We obtained an average Ge isotope fractionation factor between Fe-oxyhydroxide (ferrihydrite) and dissolved Ge in the fluid of -2.0 ± 0.6 ‰ (2sd), and a maximum value of -3.6 ± 0.6 ‰ (2sd), which is consistent with recent theoretical and experimental studies. The study of a hydrothermal chimney at Bio 9 vent at EPR 9°50’N also demonstrates that Ge isotopes are fractionated by approximately -5.6 ± 0.6 ‰ (2sd) during precipitation of metal sulfides under hydrothermal conditions. Using combined Ge/Si and estimated Ge isotope signatures of Ge sinks and sources in seawater, we propose a preliminary oceanic budget of Ge which reveals that an important sink, referred as the “missing Ge sink”, may correspond to Ge sequestration into authigenic Fe-oxyhydroxides in marine sediments. This study shows that combining Ge/Si and δ74/70Ge systematics provides a useful tool to trace hydrothermal Ge and Si sources in marine environments and to understand formation processes of seafloor hydrothermal deposits.

From Cash to Electronic Payments: Microeconomic, Macroeconomic, and Policy Aspects of Retail Payment Systems

This dissertation explores three aspects of the economics and policy issues surrounding retail payments (low-value frequent payments): the microeconomic aspect, by measuring costs associated with retail payment instruments; the macroeconomic aspect, by quantifying the impact of the use of electronic rather than paper-based payment instruments on consumption and GDP; and the policy aspect, by identifying barriers that keep countries stuck with outdated payment systems, and recommending policy interventions to move forward with payments modernization. Payment system modernization has become a prominent part of the financial sector reform agenda in many advanced and developing countries. Greater use of electronic payments rather than cash and other paper-based instruments would have important economic and social benefits, including lower costs and thereby increased economic efficiency and higher incomes, while broadening access to the financial system, notably for people with moderate and low incomes. The dissertation starts with a general introduction on retail payments. Chapter 1 develops a theoretical model for measuring payments costs, and applies the model to Guyana—an emerging market in the midst of the transition from paper to electronic payments. Using primary survey data from Guyanese consumers, the results of the analysis indicate that annual costs related to the use of cash by consumers reach 2.5 percent of the country’s GDP. Switching to electronic payment instruments would provide savings amounting to 1 percent of GDP per year. Chapter 2 broadens the analysis to calculate the macroeconomic impacts of a move to electronic payments. Using a unique panel dataset of 76 countries across the 17-year span from 1998 to 2014 and a pooled OLS country fixed effects model, Chapter 2 finds that on average, use of debit and credit cards contribute USD 16.2 billion to annual global consumption, and USD 160 billion to overall annual global GDP. Chapter 3 provides an in-depth assessment of the Albanian payment cards and remittances market and recommends a set of incentives and regulations (both carrots and sticks) that would allow the country to modernize its payment system. Finally, the conclusion summarizes the lessons of the dissertation’s research and brings forward issues to be explored by future research in the retail payments area.

An investigation of environmental conditions experienced during the life of high-value wood components and products

Australian forest industries have a long history of export trade of a wide range of products from woodchips (for paper manufacturing), sandalwood (essential oils, carving and incense) to high value musical instruments, flooring and outdoor furniture. For the high value group, fluctuating environmental conditions brought on by changes in temperature and relative humidity, can lead to performance problems due to consequential swelling, shrinkage and/or distortion of the wood elements. A survey determined the types of value-added products exported, including species and dimensions packaging used and export markets. Data loggers were installed with shipments to monitor temperature and relative humidity conditions. These data were converted to timber equilibrium moisture content values to provide an indication of the environment that the wood elements would be acclimatising to. The results of the initial survey indicated that primary high value wood export products included guitars, flooring, decking and outdoor furniture. The destination markets were mainly located in the northern hemisphere, particularly the United States of America, China, Hong Kong, Europe (including the United Kingdom), Japan, Korea and the Middle East. Other regions importing Australian-made wooden articles were south-east Asia, New Zealand and South Africa. Different timber species have differing rates of swelling and shrinkage, so the types of timber were also recorded during the survey. Results from this work determined that the major species were ash-type eucalypts from south-eastern Australia (commonly referred to in the market as Tasmanian oak), jarrah from Western Australia, spotted gum, hoop pine, white cypress, black butt, brush box and Sydney blue gum from Queensland and New South Wales. The environmental conditions data indicated that microclimates in shipping containers can fluctuate extensively during shipping. Conditions at the time of manufacturing were usually between 10 and 12% equilibrium moisture content, however conditions during shipping could range from 5 (very dry) to 20% (very humid). The packaging systems incorporated were reported to be efficient at protecting the wooden articles from damage during transit. The research highlighted the potential risk for wood components to ‘move’ in response to periods of drier or more humid conditions than those at the time of manufacturing, and the importance of engineering a packaging system that can account for the environmental conditions experienced in shipping containers. Examples of potential dimensional changes in wooden components were calculated based on published unit shrinkage data for key species and the climatic data returned from the logging equipment. The information highlighted the importance of good design to account for possible timber movement during shipping. A timber movement calculator was developed to allow designers to input component species, dimensions, site of manufacture and destination, to see validate their product design.

Critical magnetic elds in superconducting systems with semi-metallic bands

In this work, we study the Zeeman splitting effects in the parallel magnetic field versus temperature phase diagram of two-dimensional superconductors with one graphene-like band and the orbital effects of perpendicular magnetic fields in isotropic two-dimensional semi-metallic superconductors. We show that when parallel magnetic fields are applied to graphene and as the intraband interaction decreases to a critical value, the width of the metastability region present in the phase diagram decreases, vanishing completely at that critical value. In the case of two-band superconductors with one graphene-like band, a new critical interaction, associated primarily with the graphene-like band, is required in order for a second metastability region to be present in the phase diagram. For intermediate values of this interaction, a low-temperature first-order transition line bifurcates at an intermediate temperature into a first-order transition between superconducting phases and a second-order transition line between the normal and the superconducting states. In our study on the upper critical fields in generic semi-metallic superconductors, we find that the pair propagator decays faster than that of a superconductor with a metallic band. As result, the zero field band gap equation does not have solution for weak intraband interactions, meaning that there is a critical intraband interaction value in order for a superconducting phase to be present in semi-metallic superconductors. Finally, we show that the out-of-plane critical magnetic field versus temperature phase diagram displays a positive curvature, contrasting with the parabolic-like behaviour typical of metallic superconductors.

Bioeconomic modelling of woody regrowth carbon offset options in productive grazing systems

Agricultural land has been identified as a potential source of greenhouse gas emissions offsets through biosequestration in vegetation and soil. In the extensive grazing land of Australia, landholders may participate in the Australian Government’s Emissions Reduction Fund and create offsets by reducing woody vegetation clearing and allowing native woody plant regrowth to grow. This study used bioeconomic modelling to evaluate the trade-offs between an existing central Queensland grazing operation, which has been using repeated tree clearing to maintain pasture growth, and an alternative carbon and grazing enterprise in which tree clearing is reduced and the additional carbon sequestered in trees is sold. The results showed that ceasing clearing in favour of producing offsets produces a higher net present value over 20 years than the existing cattle enterprise at carbon prices, which are close to current (2015) market levels (~$13 t–1 CO2-e). However, by modifying key variables, relative profitability did change. Sensitivity analysis evaluated key variables, which determine the relative profitability of carbon and cattle. In order of importance these were: the carbon price, the gross margin of cattle production, the severity of the tree–grass relationship, the area of regrowth retained, the age of regrowth at the start of the project, and to a lesser extent the cost of carbon project administration, compliance and monitoring. Based on the analysis, retaining regrowth to generate carbon income may be worthwhile for cattle producers in Australia, but careful consideration needs to be given to the opportunity cost of reduced cattle income.

'The application of Bayesian Optimization and Classifier Systems in Nurse Scheduling'

Abstract. Two ideas taken from Bayesian optimization and classifier systems are presented for personnel scheduling based on choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for each person's assignment. Unlike our previous work of using genetic algorithms whose learning is implicit, the learning in both approaches is explicit, i.e. we are able to identify building blocks directly. To achieve this target, the Bayesian optimization algorithm builds a Bayesian network of the joint probability distribution of the rules used to construct solutions, while the adapted classifier system assigns each rule a strength value that is constantly updated according to its usefulness in the current situation. Computational results from 52 real data instances of nurse scheduling demonstrate the success of both approaches. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed approaches might be suitable for other scheduling problems.

Dielectric studies of Liquid Crystal Nanocomposites and Nanomaterial systems.

Liquid crystals (LCs) have revolutionized the display and communication technologies. Doping of LCs with inorganic nanoparticles such as carbon nanotubes, gold nanoparticles and ferroelectric nanoparticles have garnered the interest of research community as they aid in improving the electro-optic performance. In this thesis, we examine a hybrid nanocomposite comprising of 5CB liquid crystal and block copolymer functionalized barium titanate ferroelectric nanoparticles. This hybrid system exhibits a giant soft-memory effect. Here, spontaneous polarization of ferroelectric nanoparticles couples synergistically with the radially aligned BCP chains to create nanoscopic domains that can be rotated electromechanically and locked in space even after the removal of the applied electric field. The resulting non-volatile memory is several times larger than the non-functionalized sample and provides an insight into the role of non-covalent polymer functionalization. We also present the latest results from the dielectric and spectroscopic study of field assisted alignment of gold nanorods.

Close-in planets around giant stars: lack of hot-Jupiters and prevalence of multiplanetary systems

Extrasolar planets abound in almost any possible configuration. However, until five years ago, there was a lack of planets orbiting closer than 0.5 au to giant or subgiant stars. Since then, recent detections have started to populated this regime by confirming 13 planetary systems. We discuss the properties of these systems in terms of their formation and evolution off the main sequence. Interestingly, we find that 70.0 ± 6.6% of the planets in this regime are inner components of multiplanetary systems. This value is 4.2σ higher than for main-sequence hosts, which we find to be 42.4 ± 0.1%. The properties of the known planets seem to indicate that the closest-in planets (a< 0.06 au) to main-sequence stars are massive (i.e., hot Jupiters) and isolated and that they are subsequently engulfed by their host as it evolves to the red giant branch, leaving only the predominant population of multiplanetary systems in orbits 0.06

Examining barriers to internationalisation created by diverse systems and structures in vocational education and training

In a global society, all educational sectors need to recognise internationalism as a core, foundational principle. Whilst most educational sectors are taking up that challenge, vocational education and training (VET) is still being pulled towards the national agenda in terms of its structures and systems, and the policies driving it, disadvantaging those who graduate from VET, those who teach in it, and the businesses and countries that connect with it. This paper poses questions about the future of internationalisation in the sector. It examines whether there is a way to create a VET system that meets its primary point of value, to produce skilled workers for the local labour market, while still benefitting those graduates by providing international skills and knowledge, gained from VET institutions that are international in their outlook. The paper examines some of the key barriers created by systems and structures in VET to internationalisation and suggests that the efforts which have been made to address the problem have had limited success. It suggests that only a model which gives freedom to those with a direct vested interest, students, teachers, trainers and employers, to pursue international co-operation and liaison will have the opportunity to succeed. (DIPF/Orig.)

A systems approach to cardiovascular health and disease with a focus on aortic wave dynamics

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have reached an epidemic proportion in the US and worldwide with serious consequences in terms of human suffering and economic impact. More than one third of American adults are suffering from CVDs. The total direct and indirect costs of CVDs are more than $500 billion per year. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop noninvasive diagnostics methods, to design minimally invasive assist devices, and to develop economical and easy-to-use monitoring systems for cardiovascular diseases. In order to achieve these goals, it is necessary to gain a better understanding of the subsystems that constitute the cardiovascular system. The aorta is one of these subsystems whose role in cardiovascular functioning has been underestimated. Traditionally, the aorta and its branches have been viewed as resistive conduits connected to an active pump (left ventricle of the heart). However, this perception fails to explain many observed physiological results. My goal in this thesis is to demonstrate the subtle but important role of the aorta as a system, with focus on the wave dynamics in the aorta.

The operation of a healthy heart is based on an optimized balance between its pumping characteristics and the hemodynamics of the aorta and vascular branches. The delicate balance between the aorta and heart can be impaired due to aging, smoking, or disease. The heart generates pulsatile flow that produces pressure and flow waves as it enters into the compliant aorta. These aortic waves propagate and reflect from reflection sites (bifurcations and tapering). They can act constructively and assist the blood circulation. However, they may act destructively, promoting diseases or initiating sudden cardiac death. These waves also carry information about the diseases of the heart, vascular disease, and coupling of heart and aorta. In order to elucidate the role of the aorta as a dynamic system, the interplay between the dominant wave dynamic parameters is investigated in this study. These parameters are heart rate, aortic compliance (wave speed), and locations of reflection sites. Both computational and experimental approaches have been used in this research. In some cases, the results are further explained using theoretical models.

The main findings of this study are as follows: (i) developing a physiologically realistic outflow boundary condition for blood flow modeling in a compliant vasculature; (ii) demonstrating that pulse pressure as a single index cannot predict the true level of pulsatile workload on the left ventricle; (iii) proving that there is an optimum heart rate in which the pulsatile workload of the heart is minimized and that the optimum heart rate shifts to a higher value as aortic rigidity increases; (iv) introducing a simple bio-inspired device for correction and optimization of aortic wave reflection that reduces the workload on the heart; (v) deriving a non-dimensional number that can predict the optimum wave dynamic state in a mammalian cardiovascular system; (vi) demonstrating that waves can create a pumping effect in the aorta; (vii) introducing a system parameter and a new medical index, Intrinsic Frequency, that can be used for noninvasive diagnosis of heart and vascular diseases; and (viii) proposing a new medical hypothesis for sudden cardiac death in young athletes.

Organizational Sustainability and Value Creation in Collaborative Networks

Part 10: Sustainability and Trust

Building an Ontology of Product/Service-Systems: Using a Maritime Case Study to Elicit Classifications and Characteristics

Part 4: Transition Towards Product-Service Systems