On prediction of individual sequences

Sequential randomized prediction of an arbitrary binary sequence isinvestigated. No assumption is made on the mechanism of generating the bit sequence. The goal of the predictor is to minimize its relative loss, i.e., to make (almost) as few mistakes as the best ``expert'' in a fixed, possibly infinite, set of experts. We point out a surprising connection between this prediction problem and empirical process theory. First, in the special case of static (memoryless) experts, we completely characterize the minimax relative loss in terms of the maximum of an associated Rademacher process. Then we show general upper and lower bounds on the minimaxrelative loss in terms of the geometry of the class of experts. As main examples, we determine the exact order of magnitude of the minimax relative loss for the class of autoregressive linear predictors and for the class of Markov experts.

Trends in prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in the Republic of Seychelles (African region) between 1989 and 2013 [Poster]

Background: Few data exist on secular trends of high blood pressure (HBP) detection and control in low and middle income countries, particularly in the African region. This study examines trends of HBP over 25 years based on 4 independent population surveys. In the Seychelles, heath care is free to all inhabitants within a national health system, inclusive all HBP medications. Previous studies have shown a transition from traditional to cardiometabolic cardiovascular risk factors in Seychelles. Age adjusted cardiovascular disease mortality rates is high but decreasing over the last two decades.

Deficiency symptoms and uptake of micronutrients by castor bean grown in nutrient solution

Castor bean is a nutrient-demanding species, but there is still little information on its micronutrient requirements. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effects of levels of B (2.5, 12.5 and 25.0 µmol L-1), Cu (0.05, 0.25 and 0.50 µmol L-1), Mn (0.2, 1.0 and 2.0 µmol L-1) and Zn (0.2, 1.0 and 2.0 µmol L-1) in a nutrient solution on plant B, Cu, Mn and Zn concentrations and uptake, vegetative growth and fruit yield of castor bean "Iris", grown in greenhouse. The experiment was arranged in a completely randomized block design with three replicates. The first deficiency symptoms were observed for B, followed by Zn, Cu and Mn. The main changes in the cell ultrastructure due to lack of B were thickening of the cell walls and middle lamellae, distorted chloroplasts and tightly stacked thylakoids, besides the absence of starch grains. The Mn, Zn and Cu deficiencies led to disruption of chloroplasts, disintegration of thylakoids and absence of amyloplasts. The concentration and uptake of B, Cu, Mn, and Zn in castor bean plants increased with micronutrient supply in the solution. Fruit yield was drastically reduced by B and Mn deficiencies. On the other hand, the dry matter yield of the shoot and root of castor bean plants was not. In the treatment with full nutrient solution, the leaves accumulated 56 and 48 % of the total B and Mn taken up by the plants, respectively, and the seeds and roots 85 and 61 % of the total Cu and Zn taken up, respectively. This shows the high demand of castor bean Iris for B and Mn for fruit yield.

Surface characterization techniques for determining the root-mean-square roughness and power spectral densities of optical components

Surface topography and light scattering were measured on 15 samples ranging from those having smooth surfaces to others with ground surfaces. The measurement techniques included an atomic force microscope, mechanical and optical profilers, confocal laser scanning microscope, angle-resolved scattering, and total scattering. The samples included polished and ground fused silica, silicon carbide, sapphire, electroplated gold, and diamond-turned brass. The measurement instruments and techniques had different surface spatial wavelength band limits, so the measured roughnesses were not directly comparable. Two-dimensional power spectral density (PSD) functions were calculated from the digitized measurement data, and we obtained rms roughnesses by integrating areas under the PSD curves between fixed upper and lower band limits. In this way, roughnesses measured with different instruments and techniques could be directly compared. Although smaller differences between measurement techniques remained in the calculated roughnesses, these could be explained mostly by surface topographical features such as isolated particles that affected the instruments in different ways.

Functional analysis of monocyte MHC class II compartments.

Circulating monocytes, as dendritic cell and macrophage precursors, exhibit several functions usually associated with antigen-presenting cells, such as phagocytosis and presence of endosomal/lysosomal degradative compartments particularly enriched in Lamp-1, MHC class II molecules, and other proteins related to antigen processing and MHC class II loading [MHC class II compartments (MIICs)]. Ultrastructural analysis of these organelles indicates that, differently from the multivesicular bodies present in dendritic cells, in monocytes the MIICs are characterized by a single perimetral membrane surrounding an electron-dense core. Analysis of their content reveals enrichment in myeloperoxidase, an enzyme classically associated with azurophilic granules in granulocytes and mast cell secretory lysosomes. Elevation in intracellular free calcium levels in monocytes induced secretion of beta-hexosaminidase, cathepsins, and myeloperoxidase in the extracellular milieu; surface up-regulation of MHC class II molecules; and appearance of lysosomal resident proteins. The Ca(2+)-regulated surface transport mechanism of MHC class II molecules observed in monocytes is different from the tubulovesicular organization of the multivesicular bodies previously reported in dendritic cells and macrophages. Hence, in monocytes, MHC class II-enriched organelles combine degradative functions typical of lysosomes and regulated secretion typical of secretory lysosomes. More important, Ca(2+)-mediated up-regulation of surface MHC class II molecules is accompanied by extracellular release of lysosomal resident enzymes.

Childhood cancer mortality in America, Asia, and Oceania, 1970 through 2007.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 4 decades, childhood cancer mortality declined in most developed areas of the world. However, scant information is available from middle-income and developing countries. The authors analyzed and compared patterns in childhood cancer mortality in 24 developed and middle-income countries in America, Asia, and Oceania between 1970 and 2007. METHODS: Childhood age-standardized annual mortality rates were derived from the World Health Organization (WHO) database for all neoplasms, bone and kidney cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and leukemias. RESULTS: Since 1970, rates for all childhood cancers dropped from approximately 8 per 100,000 boys to 3 per 100,000 boys and from 6 per 100,000 girls to 2 per 100,000 girls in North America and Japan. Latin American countries registered rates of approximately 5 per 100,000 boys and 4 per 100,000 girls for 2005 through 2007, similar to the rates registered in more developed areas in the early 1980s. Similar patterns were observed for leukemias, for which the mortality rates were 0.81 per 100,000 boys and 0.55 per 100,000 girls in North America, 0.86 per 100,000 boys and 0.68 per 100,000 girls in Japan, and 1.98 per 100,000 boys and 1.65 per 100,000 girls in Latin America for 2005 through 2007. Bone cancer rates for 2005 through 2007 were approximately 2-fold higher in Argentina than in the United States. During the same period, Mexico registered the highest rate for kidney cancer and Colombia registered the highest rate for NHL, whereas the lowest rates were registered by Japan for kidney and by Japan and the United States for NHL. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in the adoption of current integrated treatment protocols in Latin American and other lower- and middle-income countries worldwide would avoid a substantial proportion of childhood cancer deaths.

Alpine deformation and 40Ar/39Ar geochronology of synkinematic white mica in the Siviez-Mischabel Nappe, western Pennine Alps, Switzerland

We explore the timing of deformation and exhumation of the Siviez-Mischabel Nappe (western Swiss Alps), which has been considered a classic example of a midcrustal crystalline nappe since the studies of Argand [1916]. This study presents Ar-40/Ar-39 ages obtained on both synkinematic white mica from Permo-Triassic cover sediments and more complex white mica populations from basement gneisses of the Siviez-Mischabel and middle Pennine Nappes. Primary foliation developed in cover units by nucleation, growth, and rigid rotation of mica grains during noncoaxial Alpine deformation. Although some samples show a crenulation of this primary foliation, mica growth appears to have occurred only during the development of primary foliation, the main phase of greenschist facies deformation related to imbrication of the Siviez-Mischabel Nappe and other middle Pennine Nappes. Good agreement exists between independent estimates of the timing of deformation and reported Ar-40/Ar-39, white mica ages from cover units of the central and southern Siviez-Mischabel Nappe. In cover units from the central and southern Siviez-Mischabel regions of the study area, Ar-40/Ar-39 ages appear to date synkinematic white mica growth. Results suggest that the Siviez-Mischabel :Nappe was emplaced and developed foliation during a 5 m.y. period from 41 to 36 Ma. In cover units from the eastern Siviez-Mischabel, however, Ar-40/Ar-39 white mica ages appear to date postkinematic thermal events. These thermal events may be related to Oligocene magmatic activity in the lower Pennine Nappes or to Miocene development of the Simplon fault zone. Variations in the relation between Alpine age and grain size for cover samples from the central, eastern, and southern Siviez-Mischabel correlate well with the regional variations in temperature inferred from quartz microfabrics and the pattern of regional metamorphism. When considered in concert with other recent isotopic studies on the timing of major tectonic and thermal events in the western Swiss Alps, these data support arguments that the relative timing of events such as thrusting and back thrusting of crystalline nappes in hinterland units and exhumation of high-pressure units in the suture zone of the western Alps are intimately related and synchronous on the scale of a few million years. Copyright 1998 by the American Geophysical Union.

Female thyroid cancer : the role of reproductive and hormonal factors in Switzerland

We conducted a study on 91 women with thyroid cancer and 306 controls in hospital for acute nonneoplastic, non-hormone-related disorders in order to investigate the role of reproductive and hormonal factors in the etiology of epithelial thyroid cancer in the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland. Non-significant increases in cancer risk with an increasing number of full-term pregnancies (odds ratio, OR, after allowance for age and previous benign thyroid disease = 1.6, for > or = 3 vs. 0 full-term pregnancies, 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.7-3.6) and spontaneous abortions (OR = 2.0 for > or = 2 vs. 0 spontaneous abortions, 95% CI: 0.7-5.2) were seen. A significantly elevated OR (2.8, 95% CI: 1.1-7.2) was found in those women whose first pregnancy ended with an abortion. Whereas most other reproductive, menstrual and hormonal factors examined did not seem to affect the risk of thyroid cancer significantly, a clue emerged of an association between thyroid cancer and artificial menopause (OR = 6.3, for women who underwent artificial menopause vs. premenopausal women, 95% CI: 1.7-23.2). Although not necessarily causal, the relationship between the risk of epithelial thyroid cancer and the occurrence of spontaneous abortions and artificial menopause deserves attention in future studies, in the light of the high incidence of thyroid cancer in young and middle-aged women.

Official Positions for FRAX® clinical regarding rheumatoid arthritis from Joint Official Positions Development Conference of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation on FRAX®.

Rheumatoid arthritis is the only secondary cause of osteoporosis that is considered independent of bone density in the FRAX(®) algorithm. Although input for rheumatoid arthritis in FRAX(®) is a dichotomous variable, intuitively, one would expect that more severe or active disease would be associated with a greater risk for fracture. We reviewed the literature to determine if specific disease parameters or medication use could be used to better characterize fracture risk in individuals with rheumatoid arthritis. Although many studies document a correlation between various parameters of disease activity or severity and decreased bone density, fewer have associated these variables with fracture risk. We reviewed these studies in detail and concluded that disability measures such as HAQ (Health Assessment Questionnaire) and functional class do correlate with clinical fractures but not morphometric vertebral fractures. One large study found a strong correlation with duration of disease and fracture risk but additional studies are needed to confirm this. There was little evidence to correlate other measures of disease such as DAS (disease activity score), VAS (visual analogue scale), acute phase reactants, use of non-glucocorticoid medications and increased fracture risk. We concluded that FRAX(®) calculations may underestimate fracture probability in patients with impaired functional status from rheumatoid arthritis but that this could not be quantified at this time. At this time, other disease measures cannot be used for fracture prediction. However only a few, mostly small studies addressed other disease parameters and further research is needed. Additional questions for future research are suggested.

Aspects of leaf anatomy of kudzu (Pueraria lobata, Leguminosae-Faboideae) related to water and energy balance

Kudzu is a cover crop that has escaped cultivation in some subtropical and warm temperate regions. Kudzu has previously demonstrated broad intraspecific physiological plasticity while colonizing new environments. The objective of this paper was to investigate characteristics of kudzu leaflet anatomy that might contribute to its successful growth in climatically distinct environments, and to escape cultivation as well. Fresh and fixed leaflet strips of field-grown plants were analyzed. The lower epidermis of kudzu showed a higher frequency of stomata (147 ± 19 stomata mm-2) than the upper epidermis (26 ± 17 stomata mm-2). The average number of trichomes per square milimeter was 8 for both the upper and the lower epidermis. The average trichome length was 410 ± 200 mum for the upper epidermis and 460 ± 190 mum for the lower epidermis. Cuticle thickness was not considerably different between lower and upper epidermis. The leaflet blade consisted basically of two layers (upper and lower) of unicellular epidermis, two layers of palisade parenchyma and one layer of spongy parenchyma. One layer of paraveinal mesophyll was found between palisade and spongy parenchyma. In conclusion, leaflets of kudzu present anatomical characteristics that might contribute to the broad physiological plasticity shown by kudzu.

Floods of 1986 and 1990 in the Raccoon River Basin, West-Central Iowa, HR-140, 1992

Water-surface-elevation profiles and peak discharges for the floods of 1973 and 1979 are compared to those of 1986 and 1990 in the Raccoon River basin, west-central Iowa. The profiles illustrate the 1979 and 1986 floods on the Raccoon, South Raccoon, and Middle Raccoon Rivers, the 1973 and 1986 floods on Walnut Creek, and the 1986 flood on Willow Creek and Mosquito Creek. The 1986 flood is the largest on record at U.S. Geological Survey streamflowgaging stations on the Middle Raccoon River tributary at Carroll, Middle Raccoon River near Bayard, Middle Raccoon River at Panora, and Walnut Creek at Des Moines. The 1990 flood discharge is the largest on record at U.S. Geological Survey crest-stage gaging stations on Hardin Creek near Farlin and on East Fork Hardin Creek near Churdan. The flood history given in this report describes rainfall conditions for floods that occurred during 1986 and 1990. Discharge for the 1990 flood on East Fork Hardin Creek near Churdan was 1.01 times larger than the 100-year recurrence-interval discharge.

Welfare regimes and change in the employment structure: Britain, Denmark and Germany since 1990

Welfare states are often reduced to their role as providers of social protection and redistribution. In 1990, Esping-Andersen argued that they also affect employment creation and the class structure. We analyse the stratification outcomes for three welfare regimes - Britain, Germany and Denmark - over the 1990s and 2000s. Based on individual-level surveys, we observe a disproportionate increase among professionals and managers, and a decline among production workers and clerks. The result is clear-cut occupational upgrading in Denmark and Germany. In Britain, high and low-end service jobs expanded, resulting in a polarized version of upgrading. Growth in low-end service jobs - and thus polarization - is no precondition for full employment. Both Britain and Denmark halved their low-educated unemployment rate between 1995 and 2008. Yet low-end service jobs expanded only in Britain, not in Denmark. The cause is the evolution of labour supply: rising educational attainment means that fewer low-educated workers look for low-skilled jobs.

Use of phycoerythrin and allophycocyanin for fluorescence resonance energy transfer analyzed by flow cytometry: advantages and limitations.

BACKGROUND: This study validates the use of phycoerythrin (PE) and allophycocyanin (APC) for fluorescence energy transfer (FRET) analyzed by flow cytometry. METHODS: FRET was detected when a pair of antibody conjugates directed against two noncompetitive epitopes on the same CD8alpha chain was used. FRET was also detected between antibody conjugate pairs specific for the two chains of the heterodimeric alpha (4)beta(1) integrin. Similarly, the association of T-cell receptor (TCR) with a soluble antigen ligand was detected by FRET when anti-TCR antibody and MHC class I/peptide complexes (<<tetramers>>) were used. RESULTS: FRET efficiency was always less than 10%, probably because of steric effects associated with the size and structure of PE and APC. Some suggestions are given to take into account this and other effects (e.g., donor and acceptor concentrations) for a better interpretation of FRET results obtained with this pair of fluorochromes. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that FRET assays can be carried out easily with commercially available antibodies and flow cytometers to study arrays of multimolecular complexes.

Location-independent and location-linked representations of sound objects.

For the recognition of sounds to benefit perception and action, their neural representations should also encode their current spatial position and their changes in position over time. The dual-stream model of auditory processing postulates separate (albeit interacting) processing streams for sound meaning and for sound location. Using a repetition priming paradigm in conjunction with distributed source modeling of auditory evoked potentials, we determined how individual sound objects are represented within these streams. Changes in perceived location were induced by interaural intensity differences, and sound location was either held constant or shifted across initial and repeated presentations (from one hemispace to the other in the main experiment or between locations within the right hemispace in a follow-up experiment). Location-linked representations were characterized by differences in priming effects between pairs presented to the same vs. different simulated lateralizations. These effects were significant at 20-39 ms post-stimulus onset within a cluster on the posterior part of the left superior and middle temporal gyri; and at 143-162 ms within a cluster on the left inferior and middle frontal gyri. Location-independent representations were characterized by a difference between initial and repeated presentations, independently of whether or not their simulated lateralization was held constant across repetitions. This effect was significant at 42-63 ms within three clusters on the right temporo-frontal region; and at 165-215 ms in a large cluster on the left temporo-parietal convexity. Our results reveal two varieties of representations of sound objects within the ventral/What stream: one location-independent, as initially postulated in the dual-stream model, and the other location-linked.

HLA class I - associated immunodominance affects CTL responsiveness to an ESO recombinant protein tumor antigen vaccine.

PURPOSE: Vaccination with full-length human tumor antigens aims at inducing or increasing antitumor immune responses, including CD8 CTL in cancer patients across the HLA barrier. We have recently reported that vaccination with a recombinant tumor-specific NY-ESO-1 (ESO) protein, administered with Montanide and CpG resulted in the induction of specific integrated antibody and CD4 T cell responses in all vaccinated patients examined, and significant CTL responses in half of them. Vaccine-induced CTL mostly recognized a single immunodominant region (ESO 81-110). The purpose of the present study was to identify genetic factor(s) distinguishing CTL responders from nonresponders. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We determined the HLA class I alleles expressed by CTL responders and nonresponders using high-resolution molecular typing. Using short overlapping peptides spanning the ESO immunodominant CTL region and HLA class I/ESO peptide tetramers, we determined the epitopes recognized by the majority of vaccine-induced CTL. RESULTS: CTL induced by vaccination with ESO protein mostly recognized distinct but closely overlapping epitopes restricted by a few frequently expressed HLA-B35 and HLA-Cw3 alleles. All CTL responders expressed at least one of the identified alleles, whereas none of the nonresponders expressed them. CONCLUSIONS: Expression of HLA-B35 and HLA-Cw3 is associated with the induction of immunodominant CTL responses following vaccination with recombinant ESO protein. Because recombinant tumor-specific proteins are presently among the most promising candidate anticancer vaccines, our findings indicate that the monitoring of cancer vaccine trials should systematically include the assessment of HLA association with responsiveness.