Thermal structure and dynamical modeling of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone

In the present work, a detailed analysis of a Mediterranean TLC occurred in January 2014 has been conducted. The author is not aware of other studies regarding this particular event at the publication of this thesis. In order to outline the cyclone evolution, observational data, including weather-stations data, satellite data, radar data and photographic evidence, were collected at first. After having identified the cyclone path and its general features, the GLOBO, BOLAM and MOLOCH NWP models, developed at ISAC-CNR (Bologna), were used to simulate the phenomenon. Particular attention was paid on the Mediterranean phase as well as on the Atlantic phase, since the cyclone showed a well defined precursor up to 3 days before the minimum formation in the Alboran Sea. The Mediterranean phase has been studied using different combinations of GLOBO, BOLAM and MOLOCH models, so as to evaluate the best model chain to simulate this kind of phenomena. The BOLAM and MOLOCH models showed the best performance, by adjusting the path erroneously deviated in the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and ECMWF operational models. The analysis of the cyclone thermal phase shown the presence of a deep-warm core structure in many cases, thus confirming the tropical-like nature of the system. Furthermore, the results showed high sensitivity to initial conditions in the whole lifetime of the cyclone, while the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) modification leads only to small changes in the Adriatic phase. The Atlantic phase has been studied using GLOBO and BOLAM model and with the aid of the same methodology already developed. After tracing the precursor, in the form of a low-pressure system, from the American East Coast to Spain, the thermal phase analysis was conducted. The parameters obtained showed evidence of a deep-cold core asymmetric structure during the whole Atlantic phase, while the first contact with the Mediterranean Sea caused a sudden transition to a shallow-warm core structure. The examination of Potential Vorticity (PV) 3-dimensional structure revealed the presence of a PV streamer that individually formed over Greenland and eventually interacted with the low-pressure system over the Spanish coast, favouring the first phase of the cyclone baroclinic intensification. Finally, the development of an automated system that tracks and studies the thermal phase of Mediterranean cyclones has been encouraged. This could lead to the forecast of potential tropical transition, against with a minimum computational investment.

Stabilizing molecular self-assemblies via on-surface reactions

Für die Realisierung zukünftiger Technologien, wie z.B. molekulare Elektronik, werden Strategien benötigt, um funktionale Strukturen direkt auf Oberflächen zu erzeugen. Für die Bewältigung dieser Aufgabe ist die molekulare Selbstanordnung ein äußerst vielversprechender Bottom-up-Ansatz. Hierbei ist eine der größten Herausforderungen das Zusammenspiel aus intramolekularer Wechselwirkung und der Wechselwirkung zwischen Substrat und Molekülen in ein Gleichgewicht zu bringen. Da jedoch die wirkenden Kräfte der molekularen Selbstanordnung ausschließlich reversibler Natur sind, ist eine langfristige Stabilität fragwürdig. Somit ist die kovalente Verknüpfung der gebildeten Strukturen durch Reaktionen direkt auf der Oberfläche unerlässlich, um die Stabilität der Strukturen weiter zu erhöhen. Hierzu stellt die vorliegende Arbeit eine ausführliche Studie zu molekularer Selbstanordnung und der zielgerichteten Modifikation ebensolcher Strukturen dar. Durch den Einsatz von hochauflösender Rasterkraftmikroskopie im Ultrahochvakuum, welche es erlaubt einzelne Moleküle auf Nichtleitern abzubilden, wurde der maßgebliche Einfluss von Ankerfunktionalitäten auf den Prozess der molekularen Selbstanordnung gezeigt. Des Weiteren konnte die Stabilität der selbst angeordneten Strukturen durch neue Oberflächenreaktionskonzepte entschieden verbessert werden. Der Einfluss von Ankerfunktionen, die elektrostatische Wechselwirkung zwischen Molekül und Substrat vermitteln, auf den Strukturbildungsprozess der molekularen Selbstanordnung wird eingehend durch den Vergleich eines aromatischen Moleküls und seines vierfach chlorierten Derivates gezeigt. Für diese beiden Moleküle wurde ein deutlich unterschiedliches Verhalten der Selbstanordnung beobachtet. Es wird gezeigt, dass die Fähigkeit zur Bildung selbst angeordneter, stabiler Inseln entscheidend durch die Substituenten und die Abmessungen des Moleküls beeinflusst wird. Auch wird in dieser Arbeit die erste photochemische Reaktion organischer Moleküle auf einem Isolator gezeigt. Qualitative und quantitative Ergebnisse liefern ein detailliertes Bild darüber, wie die Abmessungen des Substratgitters die Richtung der Reaktion gezielt beeinflussen. Des Weiteren wird ein allgemeines Konzept zur selektiven Stabilisierung selbstangeordneter Molekülstrukturen durch den kontrollierten Transfer von Elektronen präsentiert. Durch die gezielte Steuerung der Menge an Dotierungsatomen wird die Desorptionstemperatur der molekularen Inseln signifikant erhöht und das Desorptionsverhalten der Inseln entschieden verändert. Diese Arbeit präsentiert somit erfolgreich durchgeführte Strategien um den Prozess der molekularen Selbstanordnung zu steuern, sowie entscheidende Mechanismen um die Stabilisierung und Modifizierung von selbst angeordneten Strukturen zu gewährleisten.

Proteomic analysis of ocular surface components by use of HPLC based mass spectrometric strategies

In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde eine Top Down (TD) und zwei Bottom Up (BU) MALDI/ESI Massenspektrometrie/HPLC-Methoden entwickelt mit dem Ziel Augenoberfächenkomponenten, d.h. Tränenfilm und Konjunktivalzellen zu analysieren. Dabei wurde ein detaillierter Einblick in die Entwicklungsschritte gegeben und die Ansätze auf Eignung und methodische Grenzen untersucht. Während der TD Ansatz vorwiegend Eignung zur Analyse von rohen, weitgehend unbearbeiteten Zellproben fand, konnten mittels des BU Ansatzes bearbeitete konjunktivale Zellen, aber auch Tränenfilm mit hoher Sensitivität und Genauigkeit proteomisch analysiert werden. Dabei konnten mittels LC MALDI BU-Methode mehr als 200 Tränenproteine und mittels der LC ESI Methode mehr als 1000 Tränen- sowie konjunktivale Zellproteine gelistet werden. Dabei unterschieden sich ESI- and MALDI- Methoden deutlich bezüglich der Quantität und Qualität der Ergebnisse, weshalb differente proteomische Anwendungsgebiete der beiden Methoden vorgeschlagen wurden. Weiterhin konnten mittels der entwickelten LC MALDI/ESI BU Plattform, basierend auf den Vorteilen gegenüber dem TD Ansatz, therapeutische Einflüsse auf die Augenoberfläche mit Fokus auf die topische Anwendung von Taurin sowie Taflotan® sine, untersucht werden. Für Taurin konnten entzündungshemmende Effekte, belegt durch dynamische Veränderungen des Tränenfilms, dokumentiert werden. Außerdem konnten vorteilhafte, konzentrationsabhängige Wirkweisen auch in Studien an konjunktival Zellen gezeigt werden. Für die Anwendung von konservierungsmittelfreien Taflotan® sine, konnte mittels LC ESI BU Analyse eine Regenerierung der Augenoberfläche in Patienten mit Primärem Offenwinkel Glaukom (POWG), welche unter einem “Trockenem Auge“ litten nach einem therapeutischen Wechsel von Xalatan® basierend auf dynamischen Tränenproteomveränderungen gezeigt werden. Die Ergebnisse konnten mittels Microarray (MA) Analysen bestätigt werden. Sowohl in den Taurin Studien, als auch in der Taflotan® sine Studie, konnten charakteristische Proteine der Augenoberfläche dokumentiert werden, welche eine objektive Bewertung des Gesundheitszustandes der Augenoberfläche ermöglichen. Eine Kombination von Taflotan® sine und Taurin wurde als mögliche Strategie zur Therapie des Trockenen Auges bei POWG Patienten vorgeschlagen und diskutiert.

Development of an In Situ Measurement Device for Obtaining Material Thermal Properties

This thesis presents a methodology for measuring thermal properties in situ, with a special focus on obtaining properties of layered stack-ups commonly used in armored vehicle components. The technique involves attaching a thermal source to the surface of a component, measuring the heat flux transferred between the source and the component, and measuring the surface temperature response. The material properties of the component can subsequently be determined from measurement of the transient heat flux and temperature response at the surface alone. Experiments involving multilayered specimens show that the surface temperature response to a sinusoidal heat flux forcing function is also sinusoidal. A frequency domain analysis shows that sinusoidal thermal excitation produces a gain and phase shift behavior typical of linear systems. Additionally, this analysis shows that the material properties of sub-surface layers affect the frequency response function at the surface of a particular stack-up. The methodology involves coupling a thermal simulation tool with an optimization algorithm to determine the material properties from temperature and heat flux measurement data. Use of a sinusoidal forcing function not only provides a mechanism to perform the frequency domain analysis described above, but sinusoids also have the practical benefit of reducing the need for instrumentation of the backside of the component. Heat losses can be minimized by alternately injecting and extracting heat on the front surface, as long as sufficiently high frequencies are used.

THERMAL CHARACTERIZATION OF A GASOLINE TURBOCHARGED DIRECT INJECTION (GTDI) ENGINE UTILIZING LEAN OPERATION AND EXHAUST GAS RECIRCULATION (EGR)

The push for improved fuel economy and reduced emissions has led to great achievements in engine performance and control. These achievements have increased the efficiency and power density of gasoline engines dramatically in the last two decades. With the added power density, thermal management of the engine has become increasingly important. Therefore it is critical to have accurate temperature and heat transfer models as well as data to validate them. With the recent adoption of the 2025 Corporate Average Fuel Economy(CAFE) standard, there has been a push to improve the thermal efficiency of internal combustion engines even further. Lean and dilute combustion regimes along with waste heat recovery systems are being explored as options for improving efficiency. In order to understand how these technologies will impact engine performance and each other, this research sought to analyze the engine from both a 1st law energy balance perspective, as well as from a 2nd law exergy analysis. This research also provided insights into the effects of various parameters on in-cylinder temperatures and heat transfer as well as provides data for validation of other models. It was found that the engine load was the dominant factor for the energy distribution, with higher loads resulting in lower coolant heat transfer and higher brake work and exhaust energy. From an exergy perspective, the exhaust system provided the best waste heat recovery potential due to its significantly higher temperatures compared to the cooling circuit. EGR and lean combustion both resulted in lower combustion chamber and exhaust temperatures; however, in most cases the increased flow rates resulted in a net increase in the energy in the exhaust. The exhaust exergy, on the other hand, was either increased or decreased depending on the location in the exhaust system and the other operating conditions. The effects of dilution from lean operation and EGR were compared using a dilution ratio, and the results showed that lean operation resulted in a larger increase in efficiency than the same amount of dilution with EGR. Finally, a method for identifying fuel spray impingement from piston surface temperature measurements was found. Note: The material contained in this section is planned for submission as part of a journal article and/or conference paper in the future.

Influence of Mechanical and Thermal Boundary Conditions on Stabilizing/Destabilizing Mechanisms in Evaporating Liquid Films

Liquid films, evaporating or non-evaporating, are ubiquitous in nature and technology. The dynamics of evaporating liquid films is a study applicable in several industries such as water recovery, heat exchangers, crystal growth, drug design etc. The theory describing the dynamics of liquid films crosses several fields such as engineering, mathematics, material science, biophysics and volcanology to name a few. Interfacial instabilities typically manifest by the undulation of an interface from a presumed flat state or by the onset of a secondary flow state from a primary quiescent state or both. To study the instabilities affecting liquid films, an evaporating/non-evaporating Newtonian liquid film is subject to a perturbation. Numerical analysis is conducted on configurations of such liquid films being heated on solid surfaces in order to examine the various stabilizing and destabilizing mechanisms that can cause the formation of different convective structures. These convective structures have implications towards heat transfer that occurs via this process. Certain aspects of this research topic have not received attention, as will be obvious from the literature review. Static, horizontal liquid films on solid surfaces are examined for their resistance to long wave type instabilities via linear stability analysis, method of normal modes and finite difference methods. The spatiotemporal evolution equation, available in literature, describing the time evolution of a liquid film heated on a solid surface, is utilized to analyze various stabilizing/destabilizing mechanisms affecting evaporating and non-evaporating liquid films. The impact of these mechanisms on the film stability and structure for both buoyant and non-buoyant films will be examined by the variation of mechanical and thermal boundary conditions. Films evaporating in zero gravity are studied using the evolution equation. It is found that films that are stable to long wave type instabilities in terrestrial gravity are prone to destabilization via long wave instabilities in zero gravity.

Thermal plasticity of mitochondria: a latitudinal comparison between Southern Ocean molluscs

Mitochondrial volume density (Vv((mt,f))), cristae surface density (Sv((im,mt))), cristae surface area (Sv((im,f))) and citrate synthase (CS) activity were analysed as indicators of thermal acclimation in foot muscle of the limpet, Nacella concinna, and the clam, Laternula elliptica, collected from 4 locations within the Southern Ocean, South Georgia (54 degrees S, N. concinna only), Signy (60 degrees S), Jubany (L. elliptica only -62 degrees S) and Rothera (67 degrees S). Animals were acclimated to 0.0 degrees C whilst a sub-set of N. concinna (South Georgia, Signy and Rothera) and L. elliptica (Rothera) were acclimated to 3.0 degrees C. At 0.0 degrees C N. concinna had higher Vv((mt,f)), Sv((im,mt)), Sv((im,f)) and muscle fibre specific CS activity than L. elliptica which correlated with the more active life style of N. concinna. However, mitochondrial density was very low, 1-2% in both species, suggesting that low temperature compensation of mitochondrial density is not a universal evolutionary response of Antarctic marine ectotherms. Both Sv((im,mt)) and Sv((im,f)) were reduced by warm acclimation of N. concinna. South Georgia N. concinna maintained muscle fibre specific CS activity after acclimation, in contrast to N. concinna from Rothera and Signy and L. elliptica from Rothera, indicating that they have the physiological plasticity to respond to their warmer, more variable thermal environment.

Highly accurate isotope composition measurements by a miniature laser ablation mass spectrometer designed for in situ investigations on planetary surface

An experimental procedure for precise and accurate measurements of isotope abundances by a miniature laser ablation mass spectrometer for space research is described. The measurements were conducted on different untreated NIST standards and galena samples by applying pulsed UV laser radiation (266 nm, 3 ns and 20 Hz) for ablation, atomisation, and ionisation of the sample material. Mass spectra of released ions are measured by a reflectron-type time-of-flight mass analyser. A computer controlled performance optimiser was used to operate the system at maximum ion transmission and mass resolution. At optimal experimental conditions, the best relative accuracy and precision achieved for Pb isotope compositions are at the per mill level and were obtained in a range of applied laser irradiances and a defined number of accumulated spectra. A similar relative accuracy and precision was achieved in the study of Pb isotope compositions in terrestrial galena samples. The results for the galena samples are similar to those obtained with a thermal ionisation mass spectrometer (TIMS). The studies of the isotope composition of other elements yielded relative accuracy and precision at the per mill level too, with characteristic instrument parameters for each element. The relative accuracy and precision of the measurements is degrading with lower element/isotope concentration in a sample. For the elements with abundances below 100 ppm these values drop to the percent level. Depending on the isotopic abundances of Pb in minerals, 207Pb/206Pb ages with accuracy in the range of tens of millions of years can be achieved.

Noble gas, CFC and other geochemical evidence for the age and origin of the Bath thermal waters, UK

The city of Bath is a World Heritage site and its thermal waters, the Roman Baths and new spa development rely on undisturbed flow of the springs (45 °C). The current investigations provide an improved understanding of the residence times and flow regime as basis for the source protection. Trace gas indicators including the noble gases (helium, neon, argon, krypton and xenon) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), together with a more comprehensive examination of chemical and stable isotope tracers are used to characterise the sources of the thermal water and any modern components. It is shown conclusively by the use of 39Ar that the bulk of the thermal water has been in circulation within the Carboniferous Limestone for at least 1000 years. Other stable isotope and noble gas measurements confirm previous findings and strongly suggest recharge within the Holocene time period (i.e. the last 12 kyr). Measurements of dissolved 85Kr and chlorofluorocarbons constrain previous indications from tritium that a small proportion (<5%) of the thermal water originates from modern leakage into the spring pipe passing through Mesozoic valley fill underlying Bath. This introduces small amounts of O2 into the system, resulting in the Fe precipitation seen in the King’s Spring. Silica geothermometry indicates that the water is likely to have reached a maximum temperature of between 69–99 °C, indicating a most probable maximum circulation depth of ∼3 km, which is in line with recent geological models. The rise to the surface of the water is sufficiently indirect that a temperature loss of >20 °C is incurred. There is overwhelming evidence that the water has evolved within the Carboniferous Limestone formation, although the chemistry alone cannot pinpoint the geometry of the recharge area or circulation route. For a likely residence time of 1–12 kyr, volumetric calculations imply a large storage volume and circulation pathway if typical porosities of the limestone at depth are used, indicating that much of the Bath-Bristol basin must be involved in the water storage.

Thermal neutron capture effects in radioactive and stable nuclide systems

Neutron capture effects in meteorites and lunar surface samples have been successfully used in the past to study exposure histories and shielding conditions. In recent years, however, it turned out that neutron capture effects produce a nuisance for some of the short-lived radionuclide systems. The most prominent example is the 182Hf-182W system in iron meteorites, for which neutron capture effects lower the 182W/184W ratio, thereby producing too old apparent ages. Here, we present a thorough study of neutron capture effects in iron meteorites, ordinary chondrites, and carbonaceous chondrites, whereas the focus is on iron meteorites. We study in detail the effects responsible for neutron production, neutron transport, and neutron slowing down and find that neutron capture in all studied meteorite types is not, as usually expected, exclusively via thermal neutrons. In contrast, most of the neutron capture in iron meteorites is in the epithermal energy range and there is a significant contribution from epithermal neutron capture even in stony meteorites. Using sophisticated particle spectra and evaluated cross section data files for neutron capture reactions we calculate the neutron capture effects for Sm, Gd, Cd, Pd, Pt, and Os isotopes, which all can serve as neutron-dose proxies, either in stony or in iron meteorites. In addition, we model neutron capture effects in W and Ag isotopes. For W isotopes, the GCR-induced shifts perfectly correlate with Os and Pt isotope shifts, which therefore can be used as neutron-dose proxies and permit a reliable correction. We also found that GCR-induced effects for the 107Pd-107Ag system can be significant and need to be corrected, a result that is in contrast to earlier studies.

Tailoring surface nanostructures on polyaryletherketones for load-bearing implants

High-performance thermoplastics including polyetheretherketone (PEEK) are key biomaterials for load-bearing implants. Plasma treatment of implants surfaces has been shown to chemically activate its surface, which is a prerequisite to achieve proper cell attachment. Oxygen plasma treatment of PEEK films results in very reproducible surface nanostructures and has been reported in the literature. Our goal is to apply the plasma treatment to another promising polymer, polyetherketoneketone (PEKK), and compare its characteristics to the ones of PEEK. Oxygen plasma treatments of plasma powers between 25 and 150 W were applied on 60 μm-thick PEKK and 100 μm-thick PEEK films. Analysis of the nanostructures by atomic force microscopy showed that the roughness increased and island density decreased with plasma power for both PEKK and PEEK films correlating with contact angle values without affecting bulk properties of the used films. Thermal analysis of the plasma-treated films shows that the plasma treatment does not change the bulk properties of the PEKK and PEEK films.

Thermal Conditions at the Bed of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in Maine During Deglaciation: Implications for Esker Formation

The University of Maine Ice Sheet Model was used to study basal conditions during retreat of the Laurentide ice sheet in Maine. Within 150 km of the margin, basal melt rates average similar to 5 mm a(-1) during retreat. They decline over the next 100km, so areas of frozen bed develop in northern Maine during retreat. By integrating the melt rate over the drainage area typically subtended by an esker, we obtained a discharge at the margin of similar to 1.2 m(3) s(-1). While such a discharge could have moved the material in the Katahdin esker, it was likely too low to build the esker in the time available. Additional water from the glacier surface was required. Temperature gradients in the basal ice increase rapidly with distance from the margin. By conducting upward into the ice all of the additional viscous heat produced by any perturbation that increases the depth of flow in a flat conduit in a distributed drainage system, these gradients inhibit the formation of sharply arched conduits in which an esker can form. This may explain why eskers commonly seem to form near the margin and are typically segmented, with later segments overlapping onto earlier ones.

Calculating Basal Thermal Zones Beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet

A procedure is presented for using a simple flowline model to calculate the fraction of the bed that is thawed beneath present-day ice sheets, and therefore for mapping thawed, frozen, melting and freezing basal thermal zones. The procedure is based on the proposition, easily demonstrated, that variations in surface slope along ice flowlines are due primarily to variations in bed topography and ice-bed coupling, where ice-bed coupling for sheet flow is represented by the basal thawed fraction. This procedure is then applied to the central flowlines of flow bands on the Antarctic ice sheet where accumulation rates, surface elevations and bed topography are mapped with sufficient accuracy, and where sheet flow rather than stream flow prevails. In East Antarctica, the usual condition is a low thawed fraction in subglacial highlands, but a high thawed fraction in subglacial basins and where ice converges on ice streams. This is consistent with a greater depression of the basal melting temperature and a slower rate of conducting basal heat to the surface where ice is thick, and greater basal frictional heat production where ice flow is fast, as expected for steady-state flow. This correlation is reduced or even reversed where steady-state flow has been disrupted recently, notably where ice-stream surges produced the Dibble and Dalton Iceberg Tongues, both of which are now stagnating. In West Antarctica, for ice draining into the Pine Island Bay polynya of the Amundsen Sea, the basal thawed fraction is consistent with a prolonged and ongoing surge of Pine Island Glacier and with a recently initiated surge of Thwaites Glacier. For ice draining into the Ross Ice Shelf, long ice streams extend nearly to the West Antarctic ice divide. Over the rugged bed topography near the ice divide, no correlation consistent with steady-state sheet flow exists between ice thickness and the basal thawed fraction. The bed is wholly thawed beneath ice streams, even where stream flow is slow. This is consistent with ongoing gravitational collapse of ice entering the Ross Sea embayment and with unstable flow in the ice streams.

Relating in situ gas measurements to the surface outgassing properties of cometary nuclei

The sensitivity of the gas flow field to changes in different initial conditions has been studied for the case of a highly simplified cometary nucleus model. The nucleus model simulated a homogeneously outgassing sphere with a more active ring around an axis of symmetry. The varied initial conditions were the number density of the homogeneous region, the surface temperature, and the composition of the flow (varying amounts of H2O and CO2) from the active ring. The sensitivity analysis was performed using the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) method. Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) was used for the flow, thereby allowing strong deviations from local thermal equilibrium. The PCE approach can be used to produce a sensitivity analysis with only four runs per modified input parameter and allows one to study and quantify non-linear responses of measurable parameters to linear changes in the input over a wide range. Hence the PCE allows one to obtain a functional relationship between the flow field properties at every point in the inner coma and the input conditions. It is for example shown that the velocity and the temperature of the background gas are not simply linear functions of the initial number density at the source. As probably expected, the main influence on the resulting flow field parameter is the corresponding initial parameter (i.e. the initial number density determines the background number density, the temperature of the surface determines the flow field temperature, etc.). However, the velocity of the flow field is also influenced by the surface temperature while the number density is not sensitive to the surface temperature at all in our model set-up. Another example is the change in the composition of the flow over the active area. Such changes can be seen in the velocity but again not in the number density. Although this study uses only a simple test case, we suggest that the approach, when applied to a real case in 3D, should assist in identifying the sensitivity of gas parameters measured in situ by, for example, the Rosetta spacecraft to the surface boundary conditions and vice versa.

Influence of Surface Oceanographic Variability on Abundance of the Western Winter-Spring Cohort of Neon Flying Squid Ommastrephes Bartramii in the Nw Pacific Ocean

Abundance of the Ommastrephes bartramii winter-spring cohort fluctuated greatly from 1995 to 2004. To understand how abundance was influenced by sea surface conditions, we examined the variations in the proportion of thermal habitats with favourable sea surface temperature (SST). The SST data of both the spawning and feeding grounds were used to calculate the monthly proportion of favourable-SST areas (PFSSTA). Catch per fishing day per fishing boat (catch per unit effort, CPUE) of the Chinese mainland squid-jigging fleet was used as squid abundance index. The relationships between CPUE and monthly PFSSTA at spawning and feeding grounds were analyzed, and the relationship between CPUE and selected PFSSTA was quantified with a multiple linear regression model. Results showed that February PFSSTA at the spawning ground and August to November PFSSTA at the feeding ground could account for about 60% of the variability in O. bartramii abundance between 1995 and 2004, that February was the most important period influencing squid recruitment during the spawning season, and that feeding ground PFSSTA during the fishing season would influence CPUE by causing squid to aggregate. Our forecast model was found to perform well when we compared the model-predicted CPUEs and the average CPUEs observed during August to November in 2005 and 2006 from the Chinese squid-jigging fishery.