Tráfico de seres humanos : algumas diferenciações / Lília Maia de Morais Sales e Emanuela Cardoso Onofre de Alencar.

Inclui bibliografia.

Estimating and forecasting generalized fractional Long memory stochastic volatility models

In recent years fractionally differenced processes have received a great deal of attention due to its flexibility in financial applications with long memory. This paper considers a class of models generated by Gegenbauer polynomials, incorporating the long memory in stochastic volatility (SV) components in order to develop the General Long Memory SV (GLMSV) model. We examine the statistical properties of the new model, suggest using the spectral likelihood estimation for long memory processes, and investigate the finite sample properties via Monte Carlo experiments. We apply the model to three exchange rate return series. Overall, the results of the out-of-sample forecasts show the adequacy of the new GLMSV model.

Background Checks for Firearms Sales and Loans: Law, History, and Policy

This article examines past and present systems requiring that a person receive permission before buying or borrowing a firearm. The article covers laws from the eighteenth century to the present. Such laws have traditionally been rare in the United States. The major exceptions are antebellum laws of the slaves states, and of those same states immediately after the Civil War, which forbade gun ownership by people of color, unless the individual had been granted government permission. Today “universal background checks” are based on a system created by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and his “Everytown” lobby. Such laws have been enacted in several states, and also proposed as federal legislation. Besides covering the private sale of firearms, they also cover most loans of firearms and the return of loaned firearms. By requiring that almost all loans and returns may only be processed by a gun store, these laws dangerously constrict responsible firearms activities, such as safety training and safe storage. Massachusetts, Connecticut, and California are among the jurisdictions which have enacted less restrictive, more effective legislation which create controls on private firearms sales, without inflicting so much harm on firearms safety.

Short-term Load Forecasting Using Neural Network For Future Smart Grid Application

Short-term load forecasting of power system has been a classic problem for a long time. Not merely it has been researched extensively and intensively, but also a variety of forecasting methods has been raised. This thesis outlines some aspects and functions of smart meter. It also presents different policies and current statuses as well as future projects and objectives of SG development in several countries. Then the thesis compares main aspects about latest products of smart meter from different companies. Lastly, three types of prediction models are established in MATLAB to emulate the functions of smart grid in the short-term load forecasting, and then their results are compared and analyzed in terms of accuracy. For this thesis, more variables such as dew point temperature are used in the Neural Network model to achieve more accuracy for better short-term load forecasting results.

Forecasting Elections with High Volatility

This article uses data from the social survey Allbus 1998 to introduce a method of forecasting elections in a context of electoral volatility. The approach models the processes of change in electoral behaviour, exploring patterns in order to model the volatility expressed by voters. The forecast is based on the matrix of transition probabilities, following the logic of Markov chains. The power of the matrix, and the use of the mover-stayer model, is debated for alternative forecasts. As an example of high volatility, the model uses data from the German general election of 1998. The unification of two German states in 1990 caused the incorporation of around 15 million new voters from East Germany who had limited familiarity and no direct experience of the political culture in West Germany. Under these circumstances, voters were expected to show high volatility.

An Act of Assembly of Barbadoes to regulate sales at outcry and the proceedings of persons executing the office of Provost Marshall General ofthe said island and their under officers, 1763

An Act of Assembly of Barbadoes to regulate sales at outcry and the proceedings of persons executing the office of Provost Marshall General of the said island and their under officers (leaf 1) ; A state of some matters relative to the office of Provost Marshall, and to the passing of this bill (leaf 9) ; Observations drawn up by Jonathan Blenman Esq. his Majestys Atty. Gen. in Barbadoes ... on the Act as it had been first brought in 1761 (leaf 13) ; and two leaves laid in ; Power of attorney, granted to Christopher Scandrett, signed by Francis Reynolds and his son Thomas (25 April 1766) ; Petition of Francis Reynolds to the Lords Commissioners of Trade and Plantations (1766).

Sales at auction of property of the late Caleb Gannett Esq. of Cambridge, 1818

Eleven-page handwritten list of items sold from the estate of Caleb Gannett, dated May 29, 1818. Items are arranged by house location (such as "in the kitchen") and entries consist of the item name, the purchaser, and the price. The list includes a substantial section of "books in Office sold June 3, 1818." The verso of the last page includes the note: "Account of Sales at auction of the personal estate of C. Gannett- copied from auctioneer's book."

Account of articles included in auction sales--not inventoried, [1820 February]

One-page handwritten list of items sold at auction but not appraised.

Letter from Francis Sales to William Tudor,

One letter regarding the travel and activities of Peruvian politician Manuel Lorenzo de Vidaurre, including an including an excerpt of correspondence from Vidaurre in French.

Letter from Josiah Quincy to Francis Sales, 1835 October 12

Brief one-page handwritten letter to Francis Sales from Harvard President Josiah Quincy that accompanied the diploma for Sales's honorary master's degree.

Letter from Frances Sales to Josiah Quincy, 1835 October 22

One-page handwritten letter thanking President Quincy for his October 12, 1835 message and accompanying diploma. The document is pasted on the verso of a sheet also holding Sales's 1854 letter of resignation (HUG 1763 Box 1, Folder 3, Item 2).

Letter from Francis Sales, 1848 March 30

Handwritten copy of a brief letter in French presumably to Francois Arago congratulating him on his appointment in the French Provisional Government following the 1848 Revolution and the formation of the French Second Republic. Both Arago and Sales were from the Pyrénées-Orientales region of France.