Estudo da transição de fase da percolação através da entropia da informação

Various physical systems have dynamics that can be modeled by percolation processes. Percolation is used to study issues ranging from fluid diffusion through disordered media to fragmentation of a computer network caused by hacker attacks. A common feature of all of these systems is the presence of two non-coexistent regimes associated to certain properties of the system. For example: the disordered media can allow or not allow the flow of the fluid depending on its porosity. The change from one regime to another characterizes the percolation phase transition. The standard way of analyzing this transition uses the order parameter, a variable related to some characteristic of the system that exhibits zero value in one of the regimes and a nonzero value in the other. The proposal introduced in this thesis is that this phase transition can be investigated without the explicit use of the order parameter, but rather through the Shannon entropy. This entropy is a measure of the uncertainty degree in the information content of a probability distribution. The proposal is evaluated in the context of cluster formation in random graphs, and we apply the method to both classical percolation (Erd¨os- R´enyi) and explosive percolation. It is based in the computation of the entropy contained in the cluster size probability distribution and the results show that the transition critical point relates to the derivatives of the entropy. Furthermore, the difference between the smooth and abrupt aspects of the classical and explosive percolation transitions, respectively, is reinforced by the observation that the entropy has a maximum value in the classical transition critical point, while that correspondence does not occurs during the explosive percolation.

Estudo da transição de fase da percolação através da entropia da informação

Various physical systems have dynamics that can be modeled by percolation processes. Percolation is used to study issues ranging from fluid diffusion through disordered media to fragmentation of a computer network caused by hacker attacks. A common feature of all of these systems is the presence of two non-coexistent regimes associated to certain properties of the system. For example: the disordered media can allow or not allow the flow of the fluid depending on its porosity. The change from one regime to another characterizes the percolation phase transition. The standard way of analyzing this transition uses the order parameter, a variable related to some characteristic of the system that exhibits zero value in one of the regimes and a nonzero value in the other. The proposal introduced in this thesis is that this phase transition can be investigated without the explicit use of the order parameter, but rather through the Shannon entropy. This entropy is a measure of the uncertainty degree in the information content of a probability distribution. The proposal is evaluated in the context of cluster formation in random graphs, and we apply the method to both classical percolation (Erd¨os- R´enyi) and explosive percolation. It is based in the computation of the entropy contained in the cluster size probability distribution and the results show that the transition critical point relates to the derivatives of the entropy. Furthermore, the difference between the smooth and abrupt aspects of the classical and explosive percolation transitions, respectively, is reinforced by the observation that the entropy has a maximum value in the classical transition critical point, while that correspondence does not occurs during the explosive percolation.

Evolução dos sistemas de falhas de borda do Rifte Potiguar com base em curvas de crescimento de falhas

The discussion about rift evolution in the Brazilian Equatorial margin during the South America-Africa breakup in the Jurassic/Cretaceous has been focused in many researches. But rift evolution based on development and growth of faults has not been well explored. In this sense, we investigated the Cretaceous Potiguar Basin in the Equatorial margin of Brazil to understand the geometry of major faults and the influence of crustal heterogeneity and preexisting structural fabric in the evolution of the basin internal architecture. Previous studies pointed out that the rift is an asymmetrical half-graben elongated along the NE-SW direction. We used 2D seismic, well logs and 3D gravity modeling to analyze four major border fault segments and determine their maximum displacement (Dmax) and length (L) ratio in the Potiguar Rift. We constrained the 3D gravity modeling with well data and the interpretation of seismic sections. The difference of the fault displacement measured in the gravity model is in the order of 10% compared to seismic and well data. The fault-growth curves allowed us to divide the faulted rift border into four main fault segments, which provide roughly similar Dmax/L ratios. Fault-growth curves suggest that a regional uniform tectonic mechanism influenced growth of the rift fault segments. The variation of the displacements along the fault segments indicates that the fault segments were formed independently during rift initiation and were linked by hard and soft linkages. The latter formed relay ramps. In the interconnection zones the Dmax/L ratios are highest due to interference of fault segment motions. We divided the evolution of the Potiguar Rift into five stages based on these ratios and correlated them with the major tectonic stages of the breakup between South America and Africa in Early Cretaceous.

Evolução dos sistemas de falhas de borda do Rifte Potiguar com base em curvas de crescimento de falhas

The discussion about rift evolution in the Brazilian Equatorial margin during the South America-Africa breakup in the Jurassic/Cretaceous has been focused in many researches. But rift evolution based on development and growth of faults has not been well explored. In this sense, we investigated the Cretaceous Potiguar Basin in the Equatorial margin of Brazil to understand the geometry of major faults and the influence of crustal heterogeneity and preexisting structural fabric in the evolution of the basin internal architecture. Previous studies pointed out that the rift is an asymmetrical half-graben elongated along the NE-SW direction. We used 2D seismic, well logs and 3D gravity modeling to analyze four major border fault segments and determine their maximum displacement (Dmax) and length (L) ratio in the Potiguar Rift. We constrained the 3D gravity modeling with well data and the interpretation of seismic sections. The difference of the fault displacement measured in the gravity model is in the order of 10% compared to seismic and well data. The fault-growth curves allowed us to divide the faulted rift border into four main fault segments, which provide roughly similar Dmax/L ratios. Fault-growth curves suggest that a regional uniform tectonic mechanism influenced growth of the rift fault segments. The variation of the displacements along the fault segments indicates that the fault segments were formed independently during rift initiation and were linked by hard and soft linkages. The latter formed relay ramps. In the interconnection zones the Dmax/L ratios are highest due to interference of fault segment motions. We divided the evolution of the Potiguar Rift into five stages based on these ratios and correlated them with the major tectonic stages of the breakup between South America and Africa in Early Cretaceous.

Testes cosmológicos aplicados a modelos de energia escura

A significant observational effort has been directed to investigate the nature of the so-called dark energy. In this dissertation we derive constraints on dark energy models using three different observable: measurements of the Hubble rate H(z) (compiled by Meng et al. in 2015.); distance modulus of 580 Supernovae Type Ia (Union catalog Compilation 2.1, 2011); and the observations of baryon acoustic oscilations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by using the so-called CMB/BAO of six peaks of BAO (a peak determined through the Survey 6dFGS data, two through the SDSS and three through WiggleZ). The statistical analysis used was the method of the χ2 minimum (marginalized or minimized over h whenever possible) to link the cosmological parameter: m, ω and δω0. These tests were applied in two parameterization of the parameter ω of the equation of state of dark energy, p = ωρ (here, p is the pressure and ρ is the component of energy density). In one, ω is considered constant and less than -1/3, known as XCDM model; in the other the parameter of state equantion varies with the redshift, where we the call model GS. This last model is based on arguments that arise from the theory of cosmological inflation. For comparison it was also made the analysis of model CDM. Comparison of cosmological models with different observations lead to different optimal settings. Thus, to classify the observational viability of different theoretical models we use two criteria information, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Akaike information criteria (AIC). The Fisher matrix tool was incorporated into our testing to provide us with the uncertainty of the parameters of each theoretical model. We found that the complementarity of tests is necessary inorder we do not have degenerate parametric spaces. Making the minimization process we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are m = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059. Performing a marginalization we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are M = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059.

Testes cosmológicos aplicados a modelos de energia escura

A significant observational effort has been directed to investigate the nature of the so-called dark energy. In this dissertation we derive constraints on dark energy models using three different observable: measurements of the Hubble rate H(z) (compiled by Meng et al. in 2015.); distance modulus of 580 Supernovae Type Ia (Union catalog Compilation 2.1, 2011); and the observations of baryon acoustic oscilations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by using the so-called CMB/BAO of six peaks of BAO (a peak determined through the Survey 6dFGS data, two through the SDSS and three through WiggleZ). The statistical analysis used was the method of the χ2 minimum (marginalized or minimized over h whenever possible) to link the cosmological parameter: m, ω and δω0. These tests were applied in two parameterization of the parameter ω of the equation of state of dark energy, p = ωρ (here, p is the pressure and ρ is the component of energy density). In one, ω is considered constant and less than -1/3, known as XCDM model; in the other the parameter of state equantion varies with the redshift, where we the call model GS. This last model is based on arguments that arise from the theory of cosmological inflation. For comparison it was also made the analysis of model CDM. Comparison of cosmological models with different observations lead to different optimal settings. Thus, to classify the observational viability of different theoretical models we use two criteria information, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Akaike information criteria (AIC). The Fisher matrix tool was incorporated into our testing to provide us with the uncertainty of the parameters of each theoretical model. We found that the complementarity of tests is necessary inorder we do not have degenerate parametric spaces. Making the minimization process we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are m = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059. Performing a marginalization we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are M = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059.

O ator na rua: uma expressividade caótica

Ce travail a recherché sur le processus de préparation corporel\vocal\énergique de l’acteur pour la rue. Notre quête principale c’est comprendre les processus qui l'acteur se déplace afin de développer une énergie à la scène dans la rue. C'est cette énergie qui est mis en place et se rapporte à le passant\spectateur? Qui attire l'attention de passant\spectateur? Serai l'histoire? Le code vestimentaire ou être une expressivité dynamisée? Serai une énergie présente dans le corps de l'acteur qui se relacione avec les passants? Comme l'acteur se rapporte à l'espace urbain? Pour tenter de répondre à ces questions, nous allons utilisé certains principes de la physique moderne, tels comme: la Théorie Quantique et le Principe d'Incertitude, autan la Théorie du Chaos. Le théâtre jouée dans les rues, surtout par le biais de longs prolongements de construction scénique, cependant, lorsque présentée au public, est prise par les autres causalités, car étant situé sur la rue, l'acteur devient assujettie à cet espace et ne peut pas nier la possibilité des faits qui peuvent se produire. Selon la physique quantique l'énergie se propage dans un espace vide, la quantité d'énergie physique étant échangé dans la rue, ce qui entraîne le moment magique où les corps des acteurs, des échanges constants avec les spectateurs, en permettant le saut quantique: le spectacle théâtral de la rue.

O Supremo Tribunal Federal como agente tecnocrático no exercício da jurisdição constitucional na solução de casos complexos : análise das ações diretas de inconstitucionalidade nº 3937/SP e nº 3357/RS

Many changes have taken place in contemporary society causing impacts in its different sectors, making it much more complex and insecure than in past times. The alteration on the decision-making system of the Brazilian society is among the main changes today. The post-modern context contributed to the occurrence of the transfer of state power of the Legislative and Executive Powers to the Judiciary Power, specifically to the Federal Court of Justice, leading to an expansion on the actuation range of this institution mainly through the exercise of the constitutional jurisdiction. This has caused a crisis of legitimacy in society once the Court will now decide the political and social fundamental issues. In this scenario, the Direct Action of Unconstitutionality n° 3937/SP and n° 3357/RS are highlighted and both are being tried by the Supreme Court. Such emphasis is given, since it is a matter of high complexity and social repercussion that will be decided by a legal institution and not a political one. Thus, this work aims to analyze the role of the Supreme Court in the context of contemporary society on the trial of complex and controversial cases, particularly on the trial of Direct Action of Unconstitutionality n° 3937/SP and n° 3357/RS. This study has noticed that due to the post-modern context the majority of the Supreme Court Ministers tend to base their votes in constitutional principles and no longer limit themselves to a formal review of the constitutionality of laws, which indicates a substantialist approach. Moreover, it can be noticed the deliberative potential of the Court as well as the influence of the post-modern features, such as risk, uncertainty and insecurity on the elaboration of the Minister‟s votes. Therefore, sometimes, such as the case in study, the Supreme Court has acted as a technocratic agent in Brazilian society once fundamental political and social decisions for society especially when it comes to complex and controversial cases are being taken by the Supreme Court, which is composed by “Law technicians” and such decisions are mainly based in technical data and scientific studies. For the accomplishment of this work, it has been adopted the inductive approach and monographic procedure method and the bibliographical and documentary research technique.

Do reconhecimento à efetividade do direito fundamental à água: diálogos entre Nicarágua e Brasil

La humanidad está en un periodo de transición paradigmática, donde aún no existe acuerdo sobre en cual periodo nos encuadramos, sí modernidad o posmodernidad, pero el debate de ahí surgido se revela útil y transversal a los dilemas que enfrenta hoy la sociedad. Uno de esos dilemas tiene que ver con el reconocimiento del agua como derecho fundamental, ciertamente la era de la información ha permitido avanzar en armar el rompecabezas de la crisis hídrica mundial y sus riesgos, lo que ha develado una realidad importante, el acceso al agua tanto en naciones económicamente desarrolladas como en las menos desarrolladas constituye aun una aspiración, son varias las causas de esto, siendo una de las más comunes la atribuida al cambio climático, sin embargo, al profundizar en la materia surgen otras causas como la falta de voluntad política a nivel nacional, los intereses económicos que dan al agua tratamiento de mercancía y a nivel internacional la existencia de luces y sombras en el campo de los derechos humanos, estas constituyen las piezas del mencionado rompecabezas, aun por armar. Mientras tanto el Derecho tiene aquí un desafío de significativa importancia, adaptarse a fin de responder adecuadamente a las nuevas realidades: riesgos de diversas índoles. Esta investigación tiene como objetivo defender la existencia del derecho fundamental al agua en el ordenamiento jurídico brasileño y nicaragüense, comparando instrumentos que puedan asegurar su efectividad. Para la realización de este trabajo se utilizó un abordaje inductivo-comparativo, fuentes bibliográficas brasileñas, nicaragüenses y de países con experiencias relevantes para la comprensión del problema y que pudieran aportar propuestas de cara al reconocimiento y efectivación del derecho fundamental al agua. Este trabajo encontró que existen ambigüedades importantes en el campo del Derecho Humano al Agua motivadas por el trabajo de agencias que defienden el derecho pero a la vez establecen coordinaciones y normativas con quienes impulsan su privatización, fue posible presentar elementos que apoyan la fundamentalidad del derecho al agua desde un punto de vista material y de vinculación con otros derechos fundamentales, pero preocupa en el caso de Brasil y Nicaragua el poco avance jurisprudencial de cara al reconocimiento y finalmente la atribución de la crisis hídrica en muchos casos a la incertidumbre climática, cuando uno de los principales desafíos se encuentra en la explotación comercial del agua.

A crença sobre a morte e o coping religioso-espiritual em pacientes internados com doenças crônicas

The human being is understood as an integral being, complex, which has multiple dimensions: social, biological, psychological, anthropological, spiritual and others. As its biological dimension, the man presents the possibility of physical illness, which means that the body requires care. The sick away from humans in health and safety conditions, approaching them directly from the finitude and vulnerability condition, leading us to contact the major uncertainties of life: suffering of disease and death. Religiosity and spirituality are important coping strategy for human when faced with borderline situations. When people turn to religion to cope with stress is the religious and spiritual coping. The objective of this research was to evaluate the relationship between the views on death and the religious-spiritual coping in patients with chronic diseases hospitalized. The study included ten patients hospitalized for chronic disease complications Medical Clinic Unit of a public hospital in the city of Uberlândia/MG. two psychological scales were used: Scale Religious-Spiritual Coping Brief (CRE-Brief Scale) and Scale Brief Diverse Perspectives of Death and a structured interview (audiogravada) on the subject of death and religious and spiritual coping. The results indicated that 80% of the sample (N = 8) consisted of patients hospitalized due to chronic diseases, while 20% accounted for patients with AIDS complications. Analyzing the results of scale CRE-Brief, it emphasizes the use of strategies of religious and spiritual coping by participants as compared to CRE Total, all study participants had average or high scores for this index, with a low utilization CRE negative and average utilization CRE Positive. Regarding views on death, the results obtained by the Different Perspectives Quick Scale on Death suggest that this sample agrees with the view death as something that is part of the natural cycle of life (M8 - Death as a natural end) and features the prospect of death as uncertainty, mystery and ignorance (M4 - death as Unknown). The correlations between the measures the factors and items of CRE-Bref and dimensions of Short scales on different perspectives of Death notes the prevalence of correlations of M4 dimensions - Death as unknown and M8 - Death as a natural order to the creditor scale soon. In the interview analysis revealed a positive influence of religion/ spirituality on health, from the perspective of the respondent, highlighting the protection promoted by religion. It also noticed the use of prayer as a coping strategy of hospitalization and illness. Regarding the interview about the topic of death, there was a predominance of issues related to "afterlife", "unknown" and "abandonment", which are associated with the visions of death and mystery and death as a natural end. In the interviews there belief clues about death as a terrifying mystery connected, so the unknown and the feeling of fear on the same. The experience of illness can therefore be considered as a source of vulnerability, since it is present personal perception of danger (external) - own illness and possible death, especially in those patients undergoing ICU - and where control is insufficient for the sense of security, since the hospital providing care to the patient are delegated to third parties and patients assume a passive role. This fact is important and relevant to health professionals who deal daily with patients hospitalized for chronic diseases, since the recourse to religion and spirituality as a coping strategy that psychic movement was not constituted in a form of negative distance or even denial of health condition. On the contrary, it refers to a movement in search of comfort and security provided by the religion and spirituality.

A busca por uma política nacional dos biocombustíveis como tutela do direito fundamental ao meio ambiente : acautelamento e avaliação de riscos

The work is to demonstrate the scope of modern-day major regulatory provisions and the policies implemented to adoption of biofuels in the national energy matrix. The adoption of biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuels, is based on the realization of the fundamental right to an ecologically balanced environment mitigating hazards and environmental hazards arising from a postmodern society. However, the change in the Brazilian energy matrix observe the precepts of certain environmental principles to essentially environmental preservation The proposed Environmental rule of law is founded on the realization of the right (duty) key to an ecologically balanced environment for sustainable development. Thus, it is up to the State, in addition to considering the dangers and risks fruits of government decisions, present the possible instruments to mitigate the irreversible environmental damage to the environment. The management of environmental risks present in the ideals of an Environmental rule of law, plays an important role in the preservation and economic development, using, therefore, of acautelatórios legal instruments, such as environmental licensing and the ecological-economic zoning, measures adopted in the light of the principles of precaution and preservation. The adoption of research in the environmental field, improvement and development of environmental technology, building a system to observe ecological changes, imposition of environmental policy objectives to be achieved in the medium and long term and systematization of organizations plan a protection policy environmental, are essential measures to control possible environmental risks and damage guided by the aforementioned environmental principles. Thus, it will be used the inductive method of approach, starting from the analysis of the new perspective of Environmental rule of law and the implementation of biofuels in the context of a post-modern society, marked by uncertainty and the risk of damage, from the study of the principles of caution, maintaining and cautionary measures in mitigating the hazards and potential risks.

O papel dos enviesamentos cognitivos e emocionais no processo da tomada de decisão

A presente investigação analisa o papel dos enviesamentos cognitivos no processo de tomada de decisão financeira. Neste sentido, procurou-se verificar se os fenómenos psicológicos influenciam os indivíduos no processo da tomada de decisão num contexto de incerteza. Para a concretização do estudo, utilizou-se uma amostra de 530 estudantes do Instituto Politécnico de Leria distribuídos por quatro cursos de Licenciatura: Contabilidade e Finanças, Engenharia Informática, Engenharia Mecânica e Gestão da Escola Superior de Tecnologia e Gestão. Como metodologia, utilizou-se um questionário que foi posteriormente aplicado e respondido presencialmente entre os meses de novembro e dezembro de 2015. Os resultados obtidos indicam que não foram encontrados evidências estatisticamente significativas para comprovar a observação dos efeitos referentes ao enviesamento de excesso de confiança mensurado através do nível de experiência de investimento em mercado de capitais e através do sexo dos inquiridos. Também não foram encontrados evidências estatísticas significativas que comprovam os efeitos dos enviesamentos disponibilidade e conservadorismo/representatividade. Não obstante, para os restantes enviesamentos ancoragem e efeito disposição, os resultados obtidos indicam que existem evidências estatísticas que os indivíduos no processo da tomada decisão são influenciados por fatores cognitivos. Deste modo, através da comparação das respostas dos estudantes das duas áreas de formação (Ciências Empresariais e Engenharia), foi verificado que o efeito ancoragem é refletido na tomada de decisão dos estudantes consoante a natureza dos cursos, o que indica que o conhecimento adquirido através da formação é uma aspeto relevante. Por fim, os resultados do estudo confirmam ainda que os estudantes no processo da tomada de decisão num contexto de incerteza tendem a ser avesso ao risco no domínio dos ganhos e propenso ao risco no domínio das perdas.

O handover na sala de emergência entre o enfermeiro e a equipa de assistência pré-hospitalar

Um Handover é um momento particularmente crítico num serviço de urgência, comprometendo a segurança e a qualidade dos cuidados (Joint Commission Perspectives, 2012). Para averiguar qual a perceção da qualidade e os fatores relacionados com Handover que ocorre numa sala de emergência, entre os enfermeiros e a equipa de assistência pré-hospitalar, validou-se para a população portuguesa o instrumento de medida Handover Quality Rating Form (HQRF) de Manser et al. (2010), construi-se e validou-se para a população portuguesa o instrumento de medida, Importância da Informação Transmitida Durante o Handover (IITDH) e identificaram-se as dificuldades durante o Handover. Desenvolveu-se um estudo quantitativo, transversal e correlacional e aplicou-se um questionário a 143 enfermeiros do serviço de urgência do Centro Hospitalar de Leira e Centro Hospitalar do Oeste. A consistência interna das escalas HQRF-PT e IITDH e ficou demonstrada por um alfa de Cronbach de 0,830. A HQRF-PT apresentou um score médio de 2,19 (DP=0,58). A IITDH demonstrou que todos os itens apresentam importância elevada, com valores médios compreendidos entre 3,25 e 4,92. As dificuldades durante a realização do Handover foram o “ruído”, o “difícil acesso ao relatório escrito da equipa de assistência pré-hospitalar”, a “escuta ativa perante um doente em deterioração” e o “ambiente stressante”. Por fim, concluímos que a qualidade do Handover é tanto maior quanto menor for a pressão do tempo da pessoa que entrega (rho= -0,244; p≤0,01) e da que assume a responsabilidade do doente (rho= -0,188; p≤0,05), da complexidade (rho=-0,166; p≤0,05) e da incerteza da situação (rho= -0,297; p≤0,05), e que existe uma correlação estatisticamente não significativa entre a perceção da qualidade do Handover e a importância da informação transmitida durante o Handover.

A prospeção de clientes, comunicação e influência do marketing sensorial

No atual contexto de mudança e incerteza no qual vivem as empresas, torna-se fundamental para a continuidade e sucesso do seu negócio, a adoção de estratégias diferenciadoras que permitam aos clientes a perceção de um valor superior dos seus produtos e serviços. O presente trabalho relata as atividades desenvolvidas no âmbito do estágio curricular realizado numa pequena e média empresa de cariz familiar, a Vipex-Comércio e Industria de Plásticos S.A. O estágio foi desenvolvido na área de marketing, tendo sido exercidas atividades de comunicação, sobretudo externa, captação de novos clientes (prospeção) e a aplicação de elementos de marketing sensorial. Numa primeira fase deste relatório é feita a apresentação da empresa Vipex-Comércio e Industria de Plásticos S.A., entidade onde se realizou o estágio curricular, e descritas as principais funções e tarefas desempenhadas ao longo de 8 meses. Numa segunda fase, é realizada uma abordagem teórica sobre a comunicação, prospeção de clientes e marketing sensorial. A literatura enumera os múltiplos benefícios agregados à prospeção e fidelização de clientes. Adicionalmente, é enfatizado que o papel das experiências sensoriais é um novo fator a ter em conta na captação e fidelização dos clientes.

'El futuro' del español como lengua segunda y extranjera

La enseñanza y aprendizaje de la gramática de la lengua española como lengua segunda y extranjera es un proceso altamente complejo, cuyas aristas debería incluir la variación para que tanto estudiosos del tema, escritores de material bibliográfico, docentes como alumnos contáramos con una herramienta facilitadora y, pensamos, eficaz, para su abordaje y para un empleo funcional en búsqueda del acto comunicativo exitoso (Searle, 1986). Por esta razón compartimos una línea de investigación que se desprende de la tesis en etapa de desarrollo de la maestría de UBA en Análisis del Discurso titulada ?El futuro de los políticos. Un estudio de la variación morfosintáctica en el empleo de los tiempos de futuro en el discurso político? dirigida por la Doctora Angelita Martínez. Se trata de un estudio de variación etnopragmático(García, E. 1995; Martínez, A. 1995) que sigue los principios de la Escuela de Columbia (Contini Morava, 1995; Diver, 1995; Reid, 2004) sobre las formas morfosintácticas de futuro en el español rioplatense de los políticos de la actualidad. Con un corpus de 161 emisiones de futuro sintáctico (FS) y futuro perifrástico(FP) nos proponemos probar si el factor de la edad del orador político ejerce influencia en la selección o no. Según los significados básicos de las formas, los gramáticos de todos los tiempos han coincidido en que cuando los hablantes quieren expresar certeza optan por el FP mientras que el FS expresa mayor lejanía, y por ende, menor certeza. Sin embargo, en el discurso de los políticos argentinos con frecuencia se observa el empleo del FS, y no pensamos que éstos quieran comunicar incerteza de sus dichos ni promesa, sino, postulamos, que hacen uso de esta forma para expresar la acción futura como algo que inevitablemente ocurrirá, más allá de posibilidad de manipulación o incidencia, casi como una profecía, y que dejan el FP para expresar la posibilidad de manipulación sobre esos hechos futuros (Martínez & Mailhes, 2012; Mailhes, 2011, 2012a,b,c, 2014)