Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian Weighted Least Squares approach

Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality data sets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares Regression and Bayesian Weighted Least Squares Regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited data sets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in the prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling.

Made by motion, Series one

“Made by Motion” is a collaboration between digital artist Paul Van Opdenbosch and performer and choreographer Elise May; a series of studies on captured motion data used to generating experimental visual forms that reverberate in space and time. The project investigates the invisible forces generated by and influencing the movement of a dancer. Along with how the forces can be captured and applied to generating visual outcomes that surpass simple data visualisation, projecting the intent of the performer’s movements. The source or ‘seed’ comes from using an Xsens MVN - Inertial Motion Capture system to capture spontaneous dance movements, with the visual generation conducted through a customised dynamics simulation. In this first series the visual investigation focused on manipulating the movement date at the instance of capture, capture been the recording of three-dimensional movement as ‘seen’ by the hardware and ‘understood’ through the calibration of software. By repositioning the capture hardware on the body we can effectively change how the same sequence of movements is ‘seen’ by the motion capture system thus generating a different visual result from effetely identical movement. The outcomes from the experiments clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of using motion capture hardware as a creative tool to manipulate the perception of the capture subject, in this case been a sequence of dance movements. The creative work exhibited is a cross-section of the experiments conducted in practice with the first animated work (Movement A - Control) using the motion capture hardware in its default ‘normal’ configuration. Following this is the lower body moved to the upper body (Lb-Ub), right arm moved onto the left arm (Ra-La), right leg moved onto the left leg (Rl-Ll) and finally the left leg moved onto a object that is then held in the left hand (Ll-Pf (Lh)).

Experimental arts practice incorporating motion capture

My practice-led research explores and maps workflows for generating experimental creative work involving inertia based motion capture technology. Motion capture has often been used as a way to bridge animation and dance resulting in abstracted visuals outcomes. In early works this process was largely done by rotoscoping, reference footage and mechanical forms of motion capture. With the evolution of technology, optical and inertial forms of motion capture are now more accessible and able to accurately capture a larger range of complex movements. Made by Motion is a collaboration between digital artist Paul Van Opdenbosch and performer and choreographer Elise May; a series of studies on captured motion data used to generate experimental visual forms that reverberate in space and time. The project investigates the invisible forces generated by and influencing the movement of a dancer. Along with how the forces can be captured and applied to generating visual outcomes that surpass simple data visualisation, projecting the intent of the performer’s movements. The source or ‘seed’ comes from using an Xsens MVN – Inertial Motion Capture system to capture spontaneous dance movements, with the visual generation conducted through a customised dynamics simulation. In my presentation I will be displaying and discussing a selected creative works from the project along with the process and considerations behind the work.

Contours in Motion

My practice-led research explores and maps workflows for generating experimental creative work involving inertia based motion capture technology. Motion capture has often been used as a way to bridge animation and dance resulting in abstracted visuals outcomes. In early works this process was largely done by rotoscoping, reference footage and mechanical forms of motion capture. With the evolution of technology, optical and inertial forms of motion capture are now more accessible and able to accurately capture a larger range of complex movements. The creative work titled “Contours in Motion” was the first in a series of studies on captured motion data used to generating experimental visual forms that reverberate in space and time. With the source or ‘seed’ comes from using an Xsens MVN - Inertial Motion Capture system to capture spontaneous dance movements, with the visual generation conducted through a customised dynamics simulation. The aim of the creative work was to diverge way from a standard practice of using particle system and/or a simple re-targeting of the motion data to drive a 3d character as a means to produce abstracted visual forms. To facilitate this divergence a virtual dynamic object was tether to a selection of data points from a captured performance. The proprieties of the dynamic object were then adjusted to balance the influences from the human movement data with the influence of computer based randomization. The resulting outcome was a visual form that surpassed simple data visualization to project the intent of the performer’s movements into a visual shape itself. The reported outcomes from this investigation have contributed to a larger study on the use of motion capture in the generative arts, furthering the understanding of and generating theories on practice.

Bayesian models for spatio-temporal assessment of disease

This thesis has contributed to the advancement of knowledge in disease modelling by addressing interesting and crucial issues relevant to modelling health data over space and time. The research has led to the increased understanding of spatial scales, temporal scales, and spatial smoothing for modelling diseases, in terms of their methodology and applications. This research is of particular significance to researchers seeking to employ statistical modelling techniques over space and time in various disciplines. A broad class of statistical models are employed to assess what impact of spatial and temporal scales have on simulated and real data.

Commentary: Making sense of identity dialogues

In this commentary an alternative conceptual model of identity construction is proposed. In this model, identity construction is seen as part of a person’s ongoing sense-making. Identity is perceived as a subjective sense of continuity and sameness that renders one’s being in the world meaningful. Drawing on empirical examples provided in the target articles, it is shown how this model, which is built around the notions of rupture, identity dialogues and striving towards meaningfulness, can be utilized to analyse identity dynamics in different space and time contexts. The importance of examining links between an individual’s sense-making and collective meaning field, in which sense-making is embedded, is also highlighted.

From certificate chasing to genuine engagement : the contribution of curriculum design to students' career intent in a subfield

Many students enter business degrees without a defined career goal beyond working in the business world and adopt a scattergun approach to employability by accumulating certifications accessed through individual subjects. Yet, space and time limitations commonly prevent extended exposure to rewarding and interesting career subfields within main specialisations. This case study draws on student feedback collected over three years exploring students’ career interest following an elective human resource development subject in the final stage of a human resources major. Project-based curriculum provided students with scaffolded learning while undertaking key multiphase human resource development tasks. Subsequently, students reported human resource development career interest and intent, attributed to more realistic appreciation of human resource development’s activities, scope, and values. The paper makes an important contribution illustrating how curriculum design can transform instrumentalism into logically, emotionally, and intuitively based career engagement. Further, human resource development is a study and career area little mentioned in higher education or careers literature.

Theorising the impacts of digitally mediated social interaction on diasporic identity formation: A case of Chinese diaspora in Australia

With the scope of Chinese diaspora in Australia, this paper theorises the impacts of digitally mediated social interaction on diasporic identity formation in the new media landscape. People’s identity is the outcome of their social interactions with other individuals. In the new media landscape, digital media technologies are changing the way in which people communicate with others. On one hand, space and time are unprecedentedly compressed by media technologies so people can maintain more frequent and instant connections with others than before. On the other hand, the digital media technologies have constructed a virtual social space that might withdraw people from their physical social interactions. As we witness today, our social interactions are increasing digitally mediated, in the forms of posts and comments in social network sites, as well as the messages in social apps. As to the diasporic groups, this new media landscape is presenting a challenge to their identity formation. They physically live in the host countries but still keep close social and cultural connections with their homelands. Facilitated by digital media technologies, they are facing two platforms in which they can practice different identity performances: one is the digitally mediated social network; the other is the physical social network. In the case of Chinese diaspora, the situation is more complex due to the language factor and media censorship in Mainland China, which will be articulated in the main text. This paper aims to fill a gap between media studies and diaspora research. Most of existing research on the relationship between diasporic identity and media primarily focuses on the development of ethnic media institutions, and the production and consumption of ethnic media in the pre-digital media context. However, the process of globalisation and digital media technologies are increasing the homogeneity and hybridity of media content worldwide. In this new context, attributing the formation of different identities to the consumption of media content is arguable to some extent. Therefore, the overlapped area of new media studies and diaspora research still has space deserves further investigation.

Two-dimensional solidification in a cylindrical mold with imperfect mold contact

A two-dimensional axisymmetric problem of solidification of a superheated liquid in a long cylindrical mold has been studied in this paper by employing a new embedding technique. The mold and the melt has an imperfect contact and the heat transfer coefficient has been taken as a function of space and time. Short-time exact analytical solutions for the moving boundary and temperature distributions in the liquid, solid and mold have been obtained. The numerical results indicate that with the present solution, for some parameter values, substantial solidified thickness can be obtained. The method of solution is simple and straightforward, and consists of assuming fictitious initial temperatures for some suitable fictitious extensions of the actual regions. Sufficient conditions for the commencement of the solidification have been discussed.

"Four Ways of Writing the City" : St. Petersburg-Leningrad as a Metaphor in the Poetry of Joseph Brodsky

The present study discusses the theme of St. Petersburg-Leningrad in Joseph Brodsky's verse works. The chosen approach to the evolving im-age of the city in Brodsky's poetry is through four metaphors: St. Petersburg as "the common place" of the Petersburg Text, St. Petersburg as "Paradise and/or Hell", St. Petersburg as "a Utopian City" and St. Petersburg as "a Void". This examination of the city-image focusses on the aspects of space and time as basic categories underlying the poet's poetic world view. The method used is close reading, with an emphasis on semantical interpretation. The material consists of eighteen poems dating from 1958 to 1994. Apart from investigating the spatio-temporal features, the study focusses on exposing and analysing the allusions in the scrutinised works to other texts from Russian and Western belles lettres. Terminology (introduced by Bakhtin and Yury Lotman, among others) concerning the poetics of space in literature is employed in the present study. Conceptions originating from the paradigm of possible worlds are also used in elucidating the position of fictional and actual chronotopes and heroes in Brodsky's poetry. Brodsky's image of his native city is imbued with intertextual linkings. Through reminiscences of the "Divine Comedy" and Russian modernists, the city is paralleled with Dante's "lost and accursed" Florence, as well as with the lost St. Petersburg of Mandel'shtam and Akhmatova. His city-image is related to the Petersburg myth in Russian literature through their common themes of death and separation as well as through the merging of actual realia with the fictional worlds of the Petersburg Text. In his later poems, when his view of the city is that of an exiled poet, the city begins to lose its actual world referents, turning into a mental realm which is no longer connected to any particular geographical location or historical time. It is placed outside time. The native city as the homeland in its entirety is replaced by another existence created in language.

Heat transfer with solid liquid phase change initiating at a point in a semi infinite mold

Short-time analytical solutions of temperature and moving boundary in two-dimensional two-phase freezing due to a cold spot are presented in this paper. The melt occupies a semi-infinite region. Although the method of solution is valid for various other types of boundary conditions, the results in this paper are given only for the prescribed flux boundary conditions which could be space and time dependent. The freezing front propagations along the interior of the melt region exhibit well known behaviours but the propagations along the surface are of new type. The freezing front always depends on material parameters. Several interesting results can be obtained as particular cases of the general results.

Axisymmetric solidification in a long cylindrical mold

Using a new embedding technique, short time exact analytical solution of a two-dimensional axisymmetric problem of solidification of a superheated melt in a long cylindrical mold is presented in this paper. The prescribed flux could be space and time dependent. The method of solution is simple and is applicable to a variety of problems and consists of assuming suitable fictitious initial temperatures for some suitable fictitious extensions of the actual regions. The numerical results indicate that even a small solidified thickness can affect the initial temperature of the melt appreciably.

Can a single resource support many consumer species

The conclusion that the number of species co-existing within a biological community cannot exceed the number of limiting factors is not valid if we assume that (i) the relative efficiency of two competing species in utilizing a resource is not independent of the resource density, but one species may be more efficient at a lower density and less efficient at a higher density and (ii) there is a spatial or temporal heterogeneity in the density of the resource. This spatial or temporal heterogeneity does not have to be furnished by factors external to the biological community, but may be generated within the biological community itself as in the case of a vertical gradient of light in a plant community. This possibility of a stable co-existence of more than one species in a community limited by a single resource, even when the resource is being supplied uniformly in space and time, is formally demonstrated.

Robust heuristics for scalable optimization of complex SQL queries

Modern database systems incorporate a query optimizer to identify the most efficient "query execution plan" for executing the declarative SQL queries submitted by users. A dynamic-programming-based approach is used to exhaustively enumerate the combinatorially large search space of plan alternatives and, using a cost model, to identify the optimal choice. While dynamic programming (DP) works very well for moderately complex queries with up to around a dozen base relations, it usually fails to scale beyond this stage due to its inherent exponential space and time complexity. Therefore, DP becomes practically infeasible for complex queries with a large number of base relations, such as those found in current decision-support and enterprise management applications. To address the above problem, a variety of approaches have been proposed in the literature. Some completely jettison the DP approach and resort to alternative techniques such as randomized algorithms, whereas others have retained DP by using heuristics to prune the search space to computationally manageable levels. In the latter class, a well-known strategy is "iterative dynamic programming" (IDP) wherein DP is employed bottom-up until it hits its feasibility limit, and then iteratively restarted with a significantly reduced subset of the execution plans currently under consideration. The experimental evaluation of IDP indicated that by appropriate choice of algorithmic parameters, it was possible to almost always obtain "good" (within a factor of twice of the optimal) plans, and in the few remaining cases, mostly "acceptable" (within an order of magnitude of the optimal) plans, and rarely, a "bad" plan. While IDP is certainly an innovative and powerful approach, we have found that there are a variety of common query frameworks wherein it can fail to consistently produce good plans, let alone the optimal choice. This is especially so when star or clique components are present, increasing the complexity of th- e join graphs. Worse, this shortcoming is exacerbated when the number of relations participating in the query is scaled upwards.

Vapaaehtoiset vuodeosastolla : Etnografinen tutkimus vanhusten ja vapaaehtoisten kohtaamisesta

This ethnographic study investigates encounters between volunteers and older people at the Kerava Municipal Health Centre inpatient ward for chronic care. Volunteer activities have been under development, in cooperation with the Voluntary Work Center (Talkoorengas), since the start of the 1990s. When my research began in 2003, nine of the volunteers came to the ward on set days per week or visited the ward according to their own timetables. The volunteers ranged in age from 54 to 78 years. With one exception, all of them were on pension. Nearly all of them had been volunteers for more than ten years. My study is research on ageing, the focal point being older people, whether volunteers or those receiving assistance. The research questions are: How is volunteer work implemented in daily routines at the ward? How is interaction created in encounters between the older people and the volunteers? What meanings does volunteer work create for the older people and the volunteers? The core material of my research is observation material, which is supplemented by interviews, documentation and photographs. The materials have been analysed by using theme analysis and ethnomethodological discussion analysis. In the presentation of the research findings, I have structured the materials into three main chapters: space and time; hands and touch; and words and tones. The chapter on space and time examines time and space paths, privacy and publicness, and celebrations as part of daily life. The volunteers open and create social arenas for the older people through chatting and singing together, celebrations in the dayroom or poetry readings at the bedside. The supporting theme of the chapter on hands and touch is bodily closeness in care and the associated concrete physical presence. The chapter highlights the importance of everyday routines, such as meals and rituals, as elements that bring security. Stimuli in daily life, such as handicrafts in groups, pass time but also give older people the experience of meaningful activity and bring back positive memories of their own life. The chapter on words and tones focuses on the social interaction and identity. The volunteers’ identity is built up into the identity of a helper and caregiver. The older people’s identity is built up into a care recipient’s identity, which in different situations is shaped into, among others, the identity of one who listens, remembers, does not remember, defends, composes poetry or is dying. The cornerstones of voluntary social care are participation, activity, trust and presence. Successful volunteer work calls for mutual trust between the older people, volunteers and the health care personnel, and for clear agreements on questions of responsibility, the status of volunteers and their role alongside professional personnel. This study indicates that volunteer work is a meaningful resource in work with older people.