The XENON1T experiment: Monte Carlo background estimation and sensitivity curves study

Despite the scientific achievement of the last decades in the astrophysical and cosmological fields, the majority of the Universe energy content is still unknown. A potential solution to the “missing mass problem” is the existence of dark matter in the form of WIMPs. Due to the very small cross section for WIMP-nuleon interactions, the number of expected events is very limited (about 1 ev/tonne/year), thus requiring detectors with large target mass and low background level. The aim of the XENON1T experiment, the first tonne-scale LXe based detector, is to be sensitive to WIMP-nucleon cross section as low as 10^-47 cm^2. To investigate the possibility of such a detector to reach its goal, Monte Carlo simulations are mandatory to estimate the background. To this aim, the GEANT4 toolkit has been used to implement the detector geometry and to simulate the decays from the various background sources: electromagnetic and nuclear. From the analysis of the simulations, the level of background has been found totally acceptable for the experiment purposes: about 1 background event in a 2 tonne-years exposure. Indeed, using the Maximum Gap method, the XENON1T sensitivity has been evaluated and the minimum for the WIMP-nucleon cross sections has been found at 1.87 x 10^-47 cm^2, at 90% CL, for a WIMP mass of 45 GeV/c^2. The results have been independently cross checked by using the Likelihood Ratio method that confirmed such results with an agreement within less than a factor two. Such a result is completely acceptable considering the intrinsic differences between the two statistical methods. Thus, in the PhD thesis it has been proven that the XENON1T detector will be able to reach the designed sensitivity, thus lowering the limits on the WIMP-nucleon cross section by about 2 orders of magnitude with respect to the current experiments.

Studio geomorfologico dell'area carsica attorno alla Grotta Palombara (Melilli, Siracusa)

The following thesis attempts to study and analyse the geomorphological evolution of a relatively small coastal area located to the North of Syracuse (Southeastern Sicily). The presently inactive Palombara Cave is located in this area. The 800 metres of passages in this cave show an evolution in some way linked to the local topographic and environmental changes. This portion of coastline was affected more or less constantly by the tectonic uplift during the Pleistocene, which simultaneously to the eustatic variations have played a key role in the genesis of the marine terraces and the cave. Starting from a DTM made from Lidar data, using a GIS procedure several marine terraces have been mapped. These informations combinated with a geomorphological study of the area, allowed to identify and recognise the different orders of the Middle Pleistocene terraced surfaces. Four orders of terraces between 180-75 m a.s.l have been observed, illustrated and described. Furthermore, two other supposed terrace edges located respectively at 60 and 35 m, which would indicate the presence of two more orders, have been recognised. All these marine terraces appear to have formed in the last million years. The morphological data of the Palombara cave, highlights a genesis related to the rising of CO2 rich waters coming from the depths through the fractures of the rock mass, that ranks it as a hypogenic cave. The development has been influenced by the changes in the water table, in turn determined by the fluctuations in the sea level. In fact, the cave shows a speleogenetic evolution characterised by phases of karstification in phreatic and epiphreatic environment and fossilization stages of the upper branches in vadose conditions. These observations indicate that the cave probably started forming around 600 Ky ago, contemporary to the start of volcanic processes in the area.

A novel marker for heart failure: Cross sectional area assessment in a large vein by conductance catheter.

The present study investigates the feasibility of a new application able to check the heart failure status in a patient through the estimation of the venous distension. In this way it would be possible to follow up patients, avoiding invasive or expensive exams such as cardiac catheterization and echocardiography. Moreover, the devices would also be able to diagnose the decline of the disease, in order to allow a new adaptation to therapy, and vice versa to check the improvement in the patient’s conditions after the CRT device implant. This thesis is essentially divided into three parts: an analytical model was used to obtain an estimation of the error committed for the calculation of the CSA and to understand how the accuracy and sensitivity depend on the different configurations of the electrodes and the catheter position inside the vein; secondly, an in-vitro experiment was carried out in order to verify the practical feasibility for these kinds of measurements, in a very simplified model; in the end, several animal experiments were done to test the in-vivo practicability of the proposed method. The obtained results showed the feasibility of this approach. In fact, the error committed in the estimation of CSA, during the animal experiments, can be considered acceptable (CSAerror_max ≈ -14%). Moreover, it has been demonstrated that the conductance catheter allows assessing, not only the vein CSA, but also the breathing of the animal.

Oxotremorine Delays and Scopolamine Accelerates Sexual Exhaustion When Applied to the Preoptic Area in Male Hamsters

Acetylcholine (ACh) has not been tested for a role in the development of sexual exhaustion in males. However, male hamsters receiving infusions into the medial preoptic area (MPOA) of the muscarinic agonist oxotremorine (OXO) or antagonist scopolamine (SCO) show changes in the postejaculatory interval, one of the measures that changes most consistently as exhaustion approaches. In addition, central SCO treatments cause changes in the patterning of intromissions that resemble those signaling exhaustion. To extend these observations and more thoroughly test the dependence of sexual exhaustion on ACh, male hamsters received MPOA treatments of OXO, SCO or the combination of the two before mating to exhaustion. Relative to placebo, OXO infusions caused small but consistent increases in ejaculation frequency and long intromission latency, delaying the appearance of exhaustion. Scopolamine treatments did the reverse, dramatically accelerating the development of exhaustion. Consistent with and possibly responsible for these changes were effects on the quality of performance prior to exhaustion. These included differences in overall copulatory efficiency (e.g., ejaculations/intromission), which was increased by OXO and decreased by SCO. They also extended to several standard measures of copulatory behavior, including intromission frequency, ejaculation latency and the postejaculatory interval: Most of these were increased by SCO and decreased by OXO. Finally, whereas most or all effects of OXO were counteracted by SCO, most or all of the responses to SCO resisted change by added OXO. This asymmetry in the responses to combined treatment raises the possibility that the effects of these drugs on sexual exhaustion and other elements of male behavior are mediated by distinct muscarinic receptors. Copyright 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of small ruminant lentiviruses isolated from Canadian sheep and goats

Background: Small Ruminant Lentiviruses (SRLV) are widespread in Canadian sheep and goats and represent an important health issue in these animals. There is however no data about the genetic diversity of Caprine Arthritis Encephalitis Virus (CAEV) or Maedi Visna Virus (MVV) in this country. Findings: We performed a molecular and phylogenetic analysis of sheep and goat lentiviruses from a small geographic area in Canada using long sequences from the gag region of 30 infected sheep and 36 infected goats originating from 14 different flocks. Pairwise DNA distance and phylogenetic analyses revealed that all SRLV sequences obtained from sheep clustered tightly with prototypical Maedi visna sequences from America. Similarly, all SRLV strains obtained from goats clustered tightly with prototypical US CAEV-Cork strain. Conclusions: The data reported in this study suggests that Canadian and US SRLV strains share common origins. In addition, the molecular data failed to bring to light any evidence of past cross species transmission between sheep and goats, which is consistent with the type of farming practiced in this part of the country where single species flocks predominate and where opportunities of cross species transmissions are proportionately low.

The Estimation of the Ecological Condition of the City Environment by Methods of Phytoindication (as Applied to the Vasileostrovsky District of St. Petersburg)

The project aimed to use results of contamination of city vegetation with heavy metals and sulphur compounds as the basis for analysing the integral response of trees and shrubs to contamination, through a complex method of phytoindication. The results were used to draw up recommendations on pollution reduction in the city and to develop the method of phytoindication as a means of monitoring environmental pollution in St. Petersburg and other large cities. Field investigations were carried out in August 1996, and 66 descriptions of green areas were made in order to estimate the functional state of plants in the Vasileostrovsky district. Investigations of the spectrum reflecting properties of plants showed considerable variation of albedo meanings of leaves under the influence of various internal and external factors. The results indicated that lime trees most closely reflect the condition of the environment. Practically all the green areas studied were in poor condition, the only exceptions being areas of ash trees, which are more resistant to environmental pollution, and one lime-tree alley in a comparatively unpolluted street. The study identified those types of trees which are more or less resistant to complex environmental pollution and Ms. Terekhina recommends that the species in the present green areas be changed to include a higher number of the more resistant species. The turbidimetric analysis of tree barks for sulphates gave an indication of the level and spatial distribution of each pollutant, and the results also confirmed other findings that electric conductivity is a significant feature in determining the extent of sulphate pollution. In testing for various metals, the lime tree showed the highest contents for all elements except magnesium, copper, zinc, cadmium and strontium, again confirming the species' vulnerability to pollution. Medium rates of concentration in the city and environs showed that city plants concentrate 3 times as many different elements and 10 times more chromium, copper and lead than do those in the suburbs. The second stage of the study was based on the concept of phytoindication, which presupposes that changes in the relation of chemical elements in regional biological circulation under the influence of technogenesis provide a criterion for predicting displacements in people's health. There are certain basic factors in this concept. The first is that all living beings are related ecologically as well as by their evolutionary origin, and that the lower an organism is on the evolutionary scale, the less adaptational reserve it has. The second is that smaller concentrations of chemical elements are needed for toxicological influence on plants than on people and so the former's reactions to geochemical factors are easier to characterise. Visual indicational features of urban plants are well defined and can form the basis of a complex "environment - public health" analysis. Specific plant reactions reflecting atmospheric pollution and other components of urbogeosystems make it possible to determine indication criteria for predicting possible disturbances in the general state of health of the population. Thirdly the results of phytoindication investigations must be taken together with information about public health in the area. It only proved possibly to analyse general indexes of public health based on statistical data from the late 1980s and early 1990s as the data of later years were greatly influenced by social factors. These data show that the rates of illness in St. Petersburg (especially for children) are higher than in Russia as a whole, for most classes of diseases, indicating that the population there is more sensitive to the ecological state of the urban environment. The Vasileostrovsky district had the second highest sick rate for adullts, while the rate of infant mortality in the first year of life was highest there. Ms. Terekhina recommends further studies to more precisely assess the effectiveness of the methods she tested, but has drawn up a proposed map of environmental hazard for the population, taking into account prevailing wind directions.

Estimation with Interval Censored Data in Longitudinal Studies

In biostatistical applications interest often focuses on the estimation of the distribution of a time-until-event variable T. If one observes whether or not T exceeds an observed monitoring time at a random number of monitoring times, then the data structure is called interval censored data. We extend this data structure by allowing the presence of a possibly time-dependent covariate process that is observed until end of follow up. If one only assumes that the censoring mechanism satisfies coarsening at random, then, by the curve of dimensionality, typically no regular estimators will exist. To fight the curse of dimensionality we follow the approach of Robins and Rotnitzky (1992) by modeling parameters of the censoring mechanism. We model the right-censoring mechanism by modeling the hazard of the follow up time, conditional on T and the covariate process. For the monitoring mechanism we avoid modeling the joint distribution of the monitoring times by only modeling a univariate hazard of the pooled monitoring times, conditional on the follow up time, T, and the covariates process, which can be estimated by treating the pooled sample of monitoring times as i.i.d. In particular, it is assumed that the monitoring times and the right-censoring times only depend on T through the observed covariate process. We introduce inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) estimator of the distribution of T and of smooth functionals thereof which are guaranteed to be consistent and asymptotically normal if we have available correctly specified semiparametric models for the two hazards of the censoring process. Furthermore, given such correctly specified models for these hazards of the censoring process, we propose a one-step estimator which will improve on the IPCW estimator if we correctly specify a lower-dimensional working model for the conditional distribution of T, given the covariate process, that remains consistent and asymptotically normal if this latter working model is misspecified. It is shown that the one-step estimator is efficient if each subject is at most monitored once and the working model contains the truth. In general, it is shown that the one-step estimator optimally uses the surrogate information if the working model contains the truth. It is not optimal in using the interval information provided by the current status indicators at the monitoring times, but simulations in Peterson, van der Laan (1997) show that the efficiency loss is small.

A technique to detect and to quantify fasciocutaneous blood vessels in small laboratory animals ex vivo

PURPOSE: A microangiographical technique is described, which allows visualization of small and capillary blood vessels and quantification of fasciocutaneous blood vessels by means of digital computer analysis in very small laboratory animals. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The left carotid artery of 20 nu/nu mice was cannulated (26 gauge) and a mixture of gelatin, bariumsulfate, and green ink was injected according to standardized protocol. Fasciocutaneous blood vessels were visualized by digital mammography and analyzed for vessel length and vessel surface area as standardized units [SU] by computer program. RESULTS: With the described microangiography method, fasciocutaneous blood vessels down to capillary size level can be clearly visualized. Regions of interest (ROIs) can be defined and the containing vascular network quantified. Comparable results may be obtained by calculating the microvascular area index (MAI) and the microvascular length index (MLI), related to the ROIs size. Identical ROIs showed a high reproducibility for measured [SU] < 0.01 +/- 0.0012%. CONCLUSION: Combining microsurgical techniques, pharmacological knowledge, and modern digital image technology, we were able to visualize small and capillary blood vessels even in small laboratory animals. By using our own computer analytical program, quantification of vessels was reliable, highly reproducible, and fast.

Checking Assumptions in Latent Class Regression Models via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation Approach: An Application to Depression and Socio-Economic Status

Latent class regression models are useful tools for assessing associations between covariates and latent variables. However, evaluation of key model assumptions cannot be performed using methods from standard regression models due to the unobserved nature of latent outcome variables. This paper presents graphical diagnostic tools to evaluate whether or not latent class regression models adhere to standard assumptions of the model: conditional independence and non-differential measurement. An integral part of these methods is the use of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation procedure. Unlike standard maximum likelihood implementations for latent class regression model estimation, the MCMC approach allows us to calculate posterior distributions and point estimates of any functions of parameters. It is this convenience that allows us to provide the diagnostic methods that we introduce. As a motivating example we present an analysis focusing on the association between depression and socioeconomic status, using data from the Epidemiologic Catchment Area study. We consider a latent class regression analysis investigating the association between depression and socioeconomic status measures, where the latent variable depression is regressed on education and income indicators, in addition to age, gender, and marital status variables. While the fitted latent class regression model yields interesting results, the model parameters are found to be invalid due to the violation of model assumptions. The violation of these assumptions is clearly identified by the presented diagnostic plots. These methods can be applied to standard latent class and latent class regression models, and the general principle can be extended to evaluate model assumptions in other types of models.

Use of the immunodominant 18-kiloDalton small heat shock protein as a serological marker for exposure to Mycobacterium ulcerans

While it is well established that proximity to wetlands is a risk factor for contracting Buruli ulcer, it is not clear what proportion of a population living in an area where the etiologic agent, Mycobacterium ulcerans, is endemic is actually exposed to this disease. Immunological cross-reactivity among mycobacterial species complicates the development of a specific serological test. Among immunodominant proteins recognized by a panel of anti-M. ulcerans monoclonal antibodies, the M. ulcerans homologue of the M. leprae 18-kDa small heat shock protein (shsp) was identified. Since this shsp has no homologues in M. bovis and M. tuberculosis, we evaluated its use as a target antigen for a serological test. Anti-18-kDa shsp antibodies were frequently found in the sera of Buruli ulcer patients and of healthy household contacts but rarely found in controls from regions where the infection is not endemic. The results indicate that only a small proportion of M. ulcerans-infected individuals contract the clinical disease.

A comparison of ground cover and frequency estimation methods for post-harvest soil monitoring

The amount and type of ground cover is an important characteristic to measure when collecting soil disturbance monitoring data after a timber harvest. Estimates of ground cover and bare soil can be used for tracking changes in invasive species, plant growth and regeneration, woody debris loadings, and the risk of surface water runoff and soil erosion. A new method of assessing ground cover and soil disturbance was recently published by the U.S. Forest Service, the Forest Soil Disturbance Monitoring Protocol (FSDMP). This protocol uses the frequency of cover types in small circular (15cm) plots to compare ground surface in pre- and post-harvest condition. While both frequency and percent cover are common methods of describing vegetation, frequency has rarely been used to measure ground surface cover. In this study, three methods for assessing ground cover percent (step-point, 15cm dia. circular and 1x5m visual plot estimates) were compared to the FSDMP frequency method. Results show that the FSDMP method provides significantly higher estimates of ground surface condition for most soil cover types, except coarse wood. The three cover methods had similar estimates for most cover values. The FSDMP method also produced the highest value when bare soil estimates were used to model erosion risk. In a person-hour analysis, estimating ground cover percent in 15cm dia. plots required the least sampling time, and provided standard errors similar to the other cover estimates even at low sampling intensities (n=18). If ground cover estimates are desired in soil monitoring, then a small plot size (15cm dia. circle), or a step-point method can provide a more accurate estimate in less time than the current FSDMP method.

Development of a physically-based method for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions and flood quantile estimation in ungauged basins via the index flood method

Regional flood frequency techniques are commonly used to estimate flood quantiles when flood data is unavailable or the record length at an individual gauging station is insufficient for reliable analyses. These methods compensate for limited or unavailable data by pooling data from nearby gauged sites. This requires the delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions in which the flood regime is sufficiently similar to allow the spatial transfer of information. It is generally accepted that hydrologic similarity results from similar physiographic characteristics, and thus these characteristics can be used to delineate regions and classify ungauged sites. However, as currently practiced, the delineation is highly subjective and dependent on the similarity measures and classification techniques employed. A standardized procedure for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions is presented herein. Key aspects are a new statistical metric to identify physically discordant sites, and the identification of an appropriate set of physically based measures of extreme hydrological similarity. A combination of multivariate statistical techniques applied to multiple flood statistics and basin characteristics for gauging stations in the Southeastern U.S. revealed that basin slope, elevation, and soil drainage largely determine the extreme hydrological behavior of a watershed. Use of these characteristics as similarity measures in the standardized approach for region delineation yields regions which are more homogeneous and more efficient for quantile estimation at ungauged sites than those delineated using alternative physically-based procedures typically employed in practice. The proposed methods and key physical characteristics are also shown to be efficient for region delineation and quantile development in alternative areas composed of watersheds with statistically different physical composition. In addition, the use of aggregated values of key watershed characteristics was found to be sufficient for the regionalization of flood data; the added time and computational effort required to derive spatially distributed watershed variables does not increase the accuracy of quantile estimators for ungauged sites. This dissertation also presents a methodology by which flood quantile estimates in Haiti can be derived using relationships developed for data rich regions of the U.S. As currently practiced, regional flood frequency techniques can only be applied within the predefined area used for model development. However, results presented herein demonstrate that the regional flood distribution can successfully be extrapolated to areas of similar physical composition located beyond the extent of that used for model development provided differences in precipitation are accounted for and the site in question can be appropriately classified within a delineated region.

Estimation of vertical groundwater fluxes into a streambed through continuous temperature profile monitoring and the relationship of groundwater fluxes to coaster brook trout spawning habitat

We hypothesized that the spatial distribution of groundwater inflows through river bottom sediments is a critical factor associated with the selection of coaster brook trout (a life history variant of Salvelinus fontinalis,) spawning sites. An 80-m reach of the Salmon Trout River, in the Huron Mountains of the upper peninsula of Michigan, was selected to test the hypothesis based on long-term documentation of coaster brook trout spawning at this site. Throughout this site, the river is relatively similar along its length with regard to stream channel and substrate features. A monitoring well system consisting of an array of 27 wells was installed to measure subsurface temperatures underneath the riverbed over a 13-month period. The monitoring well locations were separated into areas where spawning has and has not been observed. Over 200,000 total temperature measurements were collected from 5 depths within each of the 27 monitoring wells. Temperatures within the substrate at the spawning area were generally cooler and less variable than river temperatures. Substrate temperatures in the non-spawning area were generally warmer, more variable, and closely tracked temporal variations in river temperatures. Temperature data were inverted to obtain subsurface groundwater velocities using a numerical approximation of the heat transfer equation. Approximately 45,000 estimates of groundwater velocities were obtained. Estimated velocities in the spawning and non-spawning areas confirmed that groundwater velocities in the spawning area were primarily in the upward direction, and were generally greater in magnitude than velocities in the non-spawning area. In the non-spawning area there was a greater occurrence of velocities in the downward direction, and velocity estimates were generally lesser in magnitude than in the spawning area. Both the temperature and velocity results confirm the hypothesis that spawning sites correspond to areas of significant groundwater influx to the river bed.

Evolution of the Southern Kenya Rift from Miocene to present with a focus on the Magadi area

The Kenya (a.k.a., Gregory) Rift is a geologically active area located within the eastern branch of the larger East African Rift System (EARS). The study area is located in the southern Kenya Rift between 1° South and the Kenya-Tanzania border (covering approximately 1.5 square degrees, semi-centered on Lake Magadi) and is predominantly filled with extrusive igneous rocks (mostly basalts, phonolites and trachytes) of Miocene age or younger. Sediments are thin, less than 1.5Ma, and are confined to small grabens. The EARS can serve both as an analogue for ancient continental rifting and as a modern laboratory to observe the geologic processes responsible for rifting. This study demonstrates that vintage (as in older, quality maps published by the Kenya Geological Survey, that may be outdated based on newer findings) quarter-degree maps can be successfully combined with recently published data, and used to interpret satellite (mainly Landsat 7) images to produce versatile, updated digital maps. The study area has been remapped using this procedure and although it covers a large area, the mapping retains a quadrangle level of detail. Additionally, all geologic mapping elements (formations, faults, etc.) have been correlated across older map boundaries so that geologic units don't end artificially at degree boundaries within the study area. These elements have also been saved as individual digital files to facilitate future analysis. A series of maps showing the evolution of the southern Kenya rift from the Miocene to the present was created by combining the updated geologic map with age dates for geologic formations and fault displacements. Over 200 age dates covering the entire length of the Kenya Rift have been compiled for this study, and 6 paleo-maps were constructed to demonstrate the evolution of the area, starting with the eruption of the Kishalduga and Lisudwa melanephelinites onto the metamorphic basement around 15Ma. These eruptions occurred before the initial rift faulting and were followed by a massive eruption of phonolites between 13-10 Ma that covered most of the Kenya dome. This was followed by a period of relative quiescence, until the initial faulting defined the western boundary of the rift around 7Ma. The resulting graben was asymmetrical until corresponding faults to the east developed around 3Ma. The rift valley was flooded by basalts and trachytes between 3Ma and 700ka, after which the volcanic activity slowed to a near halt. Since 700ka most of the deposition has been comprised of sediments, mainly from lakes occupying the various basins in the area. The main results of this study are, in addition to a detailed interpretation of the rift development, a new geologic map that correlates dozens of formations across old map boundaries and a compilation of over 300 age dates. Specific products include paleomaps, tables of fault timing and displacement, and volume estimates of volcanic formations. The study concludes with a generalization of the present environment at Magadi including discussions of lagoon chemistry, mantle gases in relation to the trona deposit, and biology of the hot springs. Several biologic samples were collected during the 2006 field season in an attempt to characterize the organisms that are commonly seen in the present Lake Magadi environment. Samples were selected to represent the different, distinctive forms that are found in the hotsprings. Each sample had it own distinctive growth habit, and analysis showed that each was formed by a different cyanobacterial. Actual algae was rare in the collected samples, and represented by a few scattered diatoms.

SPATIAL UNDERSTANDING OF MATRIX INVERSION FOR INVERSE FORCE ESTIMATION

A basic approach to study a NVH problem is to break down the system in three basic elements – source, path and receiver. While the receiver (response) and the transfer path can be measured, it is difficult to measure the source (forces) acting on the system. It becomes necessary to predict these forces to know how they influence the responses. This requires inverting the transfer path. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) method is used to decompose the transfer path matrix into its principle components which is required for the inversion. The usual approach to force prediction requires rejecting the small singular values obtained during SVD by setting a threshold, as these small values dominate the inverse matrix. This assumption of the threshold may be subjected to rejecting important singular values severely affecting force prediction. The new approach discussed in this report looks at the column space of the transfer path matrix which is the basis for the predicted response. The response participation is an indication of how the small singular values influence the force participation. The ability to accurately reconstruct the response vector is important to establish a confidence in force vector prediction. The goal of this report is to suggest a solution that is mathematically feasible, physically meaningful, and numerically more efficient through examples. This understanding adds new insight to the effects of current code and how to apply algorithms and understanding to new codes.