Risk modelling in quality clinical registries : Monitoring lesion treatment failure rate in percutaneous coronary interventions

Aims: This paper describes the development of a risk adjustment (RA) model predictive of individual lesion treatment failure in percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) for use in a quality monitoring and improvement program. Methods and results: Prospectively collected data for 3972 consecutive revascularisation procedures (5601 lesions) performed between January 2003 and September 2011 were studied. Data on procedures to September 2009 (n = 3100) were used to identify factors predictive of lesion treatment failure. Factors identified included lesion risk class (p < 0.001), occlusion type (p < 0.001), patient age (p = 0.001), vessel system (p < 0.04), vessel diameter (p < 0.001), unstable angina (p = 0.003) and presence of major cardiac risk factors (p = 0.01). A Bayesian RA model was built using these factors with predictive performance of the model tested on the remaining procedures (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.765, Hosmer–Lemeshow p value: 0.11). Cumulative sum, exponentially weighted moving average and funnel plots were constructed using the RA model and subjectively evaluated. Conclusion: A RA model was developed and applied to SPC monitoring for lesion failure in a PCI database. If linked to appropriate quality improvement governance response protocols, SPC using this RA tool might improve quality control and risk management by identifying variation in performance based on a comparison of observed and expected outcomes.

Brownfield re-development : Perceptions and risk mitigation strategies

Scarcity of large parcels of land in well-serviced areas has motivated people to re-develop brownfield land. Most of brownfield land has high risk of contamination from wide range of industrial activities such as gas works, factories, railway land and waste tips. In addition, people who live in brownfield re-development areas may be exposed to health hazards. This paper discusses public perceptions on the brownfield sites and also the risk and mitigation strategy to promote brownfield re-development. Data is gathered from face to face survey of fifty respondents who work in Brisbane Central Business District (CBD) and interview with an expert on remediation of contaminated land. From this preliminary study, it is found that majority of the population are not aware of any brownfield sites near their residence and those who are aware showed very little concern on their proximity to the site. Further discussion on the paper based on a simple cross tabulation analysis. The main risk mitigation strategy of re-development of brownfield site is by updating the registration through Environmental Management Register (EMR) and Contaminated Land Register (CLR). In addition, insurance may offer to cover cost overruns on remediation cost.

Comparing cooperative and non-cooperative crash risk assessment

Cooperative Systems provide, through the multiplication of information sources over the road, a lot of potential to improve the assessment of the road risk describing a particular driving situation. In this paper, we compare the performance of a cooperative risk assessment approach against a non-cooperative approach; we used an advanced simulation framework, allowing for accurate and detailed, close-to-reality simulations. Risk is estimated, in both cases, with combinations of indicators based on the TTC. For the non-cooperative approach, vehicles are equipped only with an AAC-like forward-facing ranging sensor. On the other hand, for the cooperative approach, vehicles share information through 802.11p IVC and create an augmented map representing their environment; risk indicators are then extracted from this map. Our system shows that the cooperative risk assessment provides a systematic increase of forward warning to most of the vehicles involved in a freeway emergency braking scenario, compared to a non-cooperative system.

Coordinated probabilistic optimal decision-making model for multi-area ATC with risk control

In the decision-making of multi-area ATC (Available Transfer Capacity) in electricity market environment, the existing resources of transmission network should be optimally dispatched and coordinately employed on the premise that the secure system operation is maintained and risk associated is controllable. The non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the ATC probability density distribution of specified areas under the influence of several uncertainty factors, based on which, a coordinated probabilistic optimal decision-making model with the maximal risk benefit as its objective is developed for multi-area ATC. The NSGA-II is applied to calculate the ATC of each area, which considers the risk cost caused by relevant uncertainty factors and the synchronous coordination among areas. The essential characteristics of the developed model and the employed algorithm are illustrated by the example of IEEE 118-bus test system. Simulative result shows that, the risk of multi-area ATC decision-making is influenced by the uncertainties in power system operation and the relative importance degrees of different areas.

School-based first aid training and the implications for traffic injury prevention : a randomised controlled trial

Adolescent injury remains a significant public health concern and is often the result of at-risk transport related behaviours. When a person is injured actions taken by bystanders are of crucial importance and timely first aid appears to reduce the severity of some injuries (Hussain & Redmond, 1994). Accordingly, researchers have suggested that first aid training should be more widely available as a potential strategy to reduce injury (Lynch et al., 2006). Further research has identified schools as an ideal setting for learning first aid skills as a means of injury prevention (Maitra, 1997). The current research examines the implications of school based first aid training for young adolescents on injury prevention, particularly relating to transport injuries. First aid training was integrated with peer protection and school connectedness within the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) program (Buckley & Sheehan, 2009) and evaluated to determine if there was a reduction in the likelihood of transport related injuries at six months post-intervention. In Queensland, Australia, 35 high schools were recruited and randomly assigned to intervention and control conditions in early April 2012. A total of 2,000 Year nine students (mean age 13.5 years, 39% male) completed surveys six months post-intervention in November 2012. Analyses will compare the intervention students with control group students who self-reported i) first aid training with a teacher, professional or other adult and ii) no first aid in the preceding six months. Using the Extended Adolescent Injury Checklist (E-AIC) (Chapman, Buckley & Sheehan, 2011) the transport related injury experiences included being injured while “riding as a passenger in a car”, “driving a car off road” and “riding a bicycle”. It is expected that students taught first aid within SPIY will report significantly fewer transport related injuries in the previous three months, compared to the control groups described above. Analyses will be conducted separately for sex and socio-economic class of schools. Findings from this study will provide insight into the value of first aid in adolescent injury prevention and provide evidence as to whether teaching first aid skills within a school based health education curriculum has traffic safety implications.

Studies of the off-field behaviours of sportspeople : are sponsors' objectives at risk?

The research reported here addresses the problem of athlete off-field behaviours as they influence sports’ sponsors, particularly the achievement of sponsorship objectives. The question arises because of incidents of sponsorship contract cancellation following news-media reporting of athletes’ off-field behaviours. Two studies are used to investigate the research question; the first establishes the content of news-media reports, and the second tests the effects of news’ reports on athlete, team and sponsor evaluations using an experimental design. Key assumptions of the research are that sponsorship objectives are principally consumer-based and mediated. Models of sponsorship argue that sponsors aim to reach and influence consumers through sponsees. Assuming this pathway exists is central to sponsorship activities. A corollary is that other mediators, in this case the news-media, may also communicate (uncontrollable) messages such that a consumer audience may be told of negative news that may then be associated with the sponsor. When sponsors cancel contracts it is assumed that their goal is to control the links between their brand and a negative referent. Balance theory is used to discuss the potential effects of negative off-field behaviours of athletes on sponsor’s objectives. Heider’s balance theory (1958) explains that individuals prefer to evaluate linked individuals or entities consistently. In the sponsorship context this presents the possibility that a negative evaluation of the athlete’s behaviour will contribute to correspondingly negative evaluations of the athlete’s team and sponsors. A content analysis (Study 1) was used to survey the types of athlete off-field behaviours commonly reported in a newspaper. In order to provide a local context for the research, articles from the Courier Mail were sampled and teams in the National Rugby League (NRL) competition were the focus of the research. The study identified nearly 2000 articles referring to the NRL competition; 258 of those refer to off-field incidents involving athletes. The various types of behaviours reported include assault, sexual assault allegations, driving under the influence of alcohol, illicit drug use, breaches of club rules, and positive off-field activities (i.e., charitable activities). An experiment (Study 2) tested three news’ article stimuli developed from the behaviours identified in Study 1 in a between-subjects design. A measure of Identification with the Team was used as a covariate variable in the Multivariate Analysis of Covariance analysis. Social identity theory suggests that when an individual identifies with a group, their attitudes and behaviours towards both in- and out-group members are modified. Use of Identification with the Team as a covariate acknowledges that respondents will evaluate behaviours differently according to the attribution of those behaviours to an in- or out-group member. Findings of the research suggest that the news’ article stimuli have significant, large effects on evaluations of athlete off-field behaviour and athlete Likability. Consistent with pretest results, charitable fundraising is regarded as extremely positive; the athlete, correspondingly, is likable. Assault is evaluated as extremely negative, and the athlete as unlikable. DUI scores reveal that the athlete’s behaviour is very negative; however, the athlete’s likability was evaluated as neutral. Treatment group does not produce any significant effects on team or sponsor variables. This research also finds that Identification with the Team has significant, large effects on team variables (Attitude toward the Brand and Corporate Image). Identification also has a significant large effect on athlete Likability, but not on Attitude toward the Act. Identification with the Team does not produce any significant effects on sponsor variables. The results of this research suggest that sponsor’s consumer-based objectives are not threatened by newspaper reports linking athlete off-field behaviour with their brand. Evaluations of sponsor variables (Attitude toward the Sponsor’s Brand and Corporate Image) were consistently positive. Variance in that data, however, cannot be attributed to experimental stimuli or Identification with the Team. These results argue that respondents may regard sponsorships, in principle, as good. Although it is good news for sponsors that negative evaluations of athletes will not produce correspondingly negative evaluations of consumer-based sponsorship objectives, the results indicate problems for sponsorship managers. The failure of Identification with the Team to explain sponsor variable variance indicates that the sponsor has not been evaluated as a linked entity in a relationship with the sporting team and athlete in this research. This result argues that the sponsee-mediated affective communication path that sponsors aim use to communicate with desirable publics is not necessarily a path available to them.

Imagining neighbourhood-based community : an autoethnography

This research is an autoethnographic investigation of consumption experiences, public and quasi-public spaces, and their relationship to community within an inner city neighbourhood. The research specifically focuses on the gentrifying inner city, where class-based processes of change can have implications for people’s abilities to remain within, or feel connected to place. However, the thesis draws on broader theories of the throwntogetherness of the contemporary city (e.g., Amin and Thrift, 2002; Massey 2005) to argue that the city is a space where place-based meanings cannot be seen to be fixed, and are instead better understood as events of place – based on ever shifting interrelations between the trajectories of people and things. This perspective argues the experience of belonging to community is not just born of a social encounter, but also draws on the physical and symbolic elements of the context in which it is situated. The thesis particularly explores the ways people construct identifications within this shifting urban environment. As such, consumption practices and spaces offer one important lens through which to explore the interplay of the physical, social and symbolic. Consumer research tells us that consumption practices can facilitate experiences in which identity-defining meaning can be generated and shared. Consumption spaces can also support different kinds of collective identification – as anchoring realms for specific cultural groups or exposure realms that enable individuals to share in the identification practices of others with limited risk (Aubert-Gamet & Cova, 1999). Furthermore, the consumption-based lifestyles that gentrifying inner city neighbourhoods both support and encourage can also mean that consumption practices may be a key reason that people are moving through public space. That is, consumption practices and spaces may provide a purpose for which – and spatial frame against which – our everyday interactions and connections with people and objects are undertaken within such neighbourhoods. The purpose of this investigation then was to delve into the subjectivities at the heart of identifying with places, using the lens of our consumption-based experiences within them. The enquiry describes individual and collective identifications and emotional connections, and explores how these arise within and through our experiences within public and quasi-public spaces. It then theorises these ‘imaginings’ as representative of an experience of community. To do so, it draws on theories of imagination and its relation to community. Theories of imagined community remind us that both the values and identities of community are held together by projections that create relational links out of objects and shared practices (e.g., Benedict Anderson, 2006; Urry, 2000). Drawing on broader theories of the processes of the imagination, this thesis suggests that an interplay between reflexivity and fantasy – which are products of the critical and the fascinated consciousness – plays a role in this imagining of community (e.g., Brann, 1991; Ricoeur, 1994). This thesis therefore seeks to explore how these processes of imagining are implicated within the construction of an experience of belonging to neighbourhood-based community through consumption practices and the public and quasi-public spaces that frame them. The key question of this thesis is how do an individual’s consumption practices work to construct an imagined presence of neighbourhood-based community? Given the focus on public and quasi-public spaces and our experiences within them, the research also asked how do experiences in the public and quasi-public spaces that frame these practices contribute to the construction of this imagined presence? This investigation of imagining community through consumption practices is based on my own experiences of moving to, and attempting to construct community connections within, an inner city neighbourhood in Melbourne, Australia. To do so, I adopted autoethnographic methodology. This is because autoethnography provides the methodological tools through which one can explore and make visible the subjectivities inherent within the lived experiences of interest to the thesis (Ellis, 2004). I describe imagining community through consumption as an extension of a placebased self. This self is manifest through personal identification in consumption spaces that operate as anchoring realms for specific cultural groups, as well as through a broader imagining of spaces, people, and practices as connected through experiences within realms of exposure. However, this is a process that oscillates through cycles of identification; these anchor one within place personally, but also disrupt those attachments. This instability can force one to question the orientation and motives of these imaginings, and reframe them according to different spaces and reference groups in ways that can also work to construct a more anonymous and, conversely, more achievable collective identification. All the while, the ‘I’ at the heart of this identification is in an ongoing process of negotiation, and similarly, the imagined community is never complete. That is, imagining community is a negotiation, with people and spaces – but mostly with the different identifications of the self. This thesis has been undertaken by publication, and thus the process of imagining community is explored and described through four papers. Of these, the first two focus on specific types of consumption spaces – a bar and a shopping centre – and consider the ways that anchoring and exposure within these spaces support the process of imagining community. The third paper examines the ways that the public and quasi-public spaces that make up the broader neighbourhood context are themselves throwntogether as a realm of exposure, and considers the ways this shapes my imaginings of this neighbourhood as community. The final paper develops a theory of imagined community, as a process of comparison and contrast with imagined others, to provide a summative conceptualisation of the first three papers. The first paper, chapter five, explores this process of comparison and contrast in relation to authenticity, which in itself is a subjective assessment of identity. This chapter was written as a direct response to the recent work of Zukin (2010), and draws on theories of authenticity as applied to personal and collective identification practices by consumer researchers Arnould and Price (2000). In this chapter, I describe how my assessments of the authenticity of my anchoring experiences within one specific consumption space, a neighbourhood bar, are evaluated in comparison to my observations of and affective reactions to the social practices of another group of residents in a different consumption space, the local shopping centre. Chapter five also provides an overview of the key sites and experiences that are considered in more detail in the following two chapters. In chapter six, I again draw on my experiences within the bar introduced in chapter five, this time to explore the process of developing a regular identity within a specific consumption space. Addressing the popular theory of the cafe or bar as third place (Oldenburg, 1999), this paper considers the purpose of developing anchored relationships with people within specific consumption spaces, and explores the different ways this may be achieved in an urban context where the mobilities and lifestyle practices of residents complicate the idea of a consumption space as an anchoring or third place. In doing so, this chapter also considers the manner in which this type of regular identification may be seen to be the beginning of the process of imagining community. In chapter seven, I consider the ways the broader public spaces of the neighbourhood work cumulatively to expose different aspects of its identity by following my everyday movements through the neighbourhood’s shopping centre and main street. Drawing on the theories of Urry (2000), Massey (2005), and Amin (2007, 2008), this chapter describes how these spaces operate as exposure realms, enabling the expression of different senses of the neighbourhood’s spaces, times, cultures, and identities through their physical, social, and symbolic elements. Yet they also enable them to be united: through habitual pathways, group practices of appropriation of space, and memory traces that construct connections between objects and experiences. This chapter describes this as a process of exposure to these different elements. Our imagination begins to expand the scope of the frames onto which it projects an imagined presence; it searches for patterns within the physical, social, and symbolic environment and draws connections between people and practices across spaces. As the final paper, chapter eight, deduces, it is in making these connections that one constructs the objects and shared practices of imagined community. This chapter describes this as an imagining of neighbourhood as a place-based extension of the self, and then explores the ways in which I drew on physical, social, and symbolic elements in an attempt to construct a fit between the neighbourhood’s offerings and my desires for place-based identity definition. This was as a cumulative but fragmented process, in which positive and negative experiences of interaction and identification with people and things were searched for their potential to operate as the objects and shared practices of imagined community. This chapter describes these connections as constructed through interplay between reflexivity and fantasy, as the imagination seeks balance between desires for experiences of belonging, and the complexities of constructing them within the throwntogether context of the contemporary city. The conclusion of the thesis describes the process of imagining community as a reflexive fantasy, that is, as a product of both the critical and fascinated consciousness (Ricoeur, 1994). It suggests that the fascinated consciousness imbues experiences with hope and desire, which the reflexive imagining can turn to disappointment and shame as it critically reflects on the reality of those fascinated projections. At the same time, the reflexive imagination also searches the practices of others for affirmation of those projections, effectively seeking to prove the reality of the fantasy of the imagined community.

The benefit of modeling jumps in realized volatility for risk prediction : evidence from Chinese mainland stocks

Recent literature has focused on realized volatility models to predict financial risk. This paper studies the benefit of explicitly modeling jumps in this class of models for value at risk (VaR) prediction. Several popular realized volatility models are compared in terms of their VaR forecasting performances through a Monte Carlo study and an analysis based on empirical data of eight Chinese stocks. The results suggest that careful modeling of jumps in realized volatility models can largely improve VaR prediction, especially for emerging markets where jumps play a stronger role than those in developed markets.

Screening in early childhood for risk of later mental health problems : a longitudinal study

Depression in childhood or adolescence is associated with increased rates of depression in adulthood. Does this justify efforts to detect (and treat) those with symptoms of depression in early childhood or adolescence? The aim of this study was to determine how well symptoms of anxiety/depression (A-D) in early childhood and adolescence predict adult mental health. The study sample is taken from a population-based prospective birth cohort study. Of the 8556 mothers initially approached to participate 8458 agreed, of whom 7223 mothers gave birth to a live singleton baby. Children were screened using modified Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL) scales for internalizing and total problems (T-P) at age 5 and the CBCL and Youth Self Report (YSR) A-D subscale and T-P scale at age 14. At age 21, a sub-sample of 2563 young adults in this cohort were administered the CIDI-Auto. Results indicated that screening at age 5 would detect few later cases of significant mental ill-health. Using a cut-point of 20% for internalizing at child age 5 years the CBCL had sensitivities of only 25% and 18% for major depression and anxiety disorders at 21 years, respectively. At age 14, the YSR generally performed a little better than the CBCL as a screening instrument, but neither performed at a satisfactory level. Of the children who were categorised as having YSR A-D at 14 years 30% and 37% met DSM-IV criteria for major depression and anxiety disorders, respectively, at age 21. Our findings challenge an existing movement encouraging the detection and treatment of those with symptoms of mental illness in early childhood.

PCV13 Perceptions of health during pregnancy increase the risk of cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVES: To examine the prospective association between perception of health during pregnancy and cardiovascular risk factor of mothers 21 years after the index pregnancy. METHODS: Data used were from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a community- based prospective birth ohort study begun in Brisbane, Australia, in 1983. Logistic regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Data were available for 3692 women. Women who perceived themselves as not having a straight forward pregnancy had twice the odds (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.8) of being diagnosed with heart disease 21 years after the indexpregnancyascomparedtowomenwith a straight forward pregnancy. Apart from that, women who had complications (other than serious pregnancy complications) during the pregnancy were also at30%increased odds (adjustedOR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6) of having hypertension 21 years later. CONCLUSIONS: As a whole, our study suggests that pregnant women who perceived that they had complications and did not have a straight forward pregnancy are likely to experience poorer cardiovascular outcomes 21 years after the pregnancy.

Exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation for the 21st century

Exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (CR) is efficacious in reducing mortality and hospital admissions; however it remains inaccessible to large proportions of the patient population. Removal of attendance barriers for hospital or centre-based CR has seen the promotion of home-based CR. Delivery of safe and appropriately prescribed exercise in the home was first documented 25 years ago, with the utilisation of fixed land-line telecommunications to monitor ECG. The advent of miniature ECG sensors, in conjunction with smartphones, now enables CR to be delivered with greater flexibility with regard to location, time and format, while retaining the capacity for real-time patient monitoring. A range of new systems allow other signals including speed, location, pulse oximetry, and respiration to be monitored and these may have application in CR. There is compelling evidence that telemonitored-based CR is an effective alternative to traditional CR practice. The long-standing barrier of access to centre-based CR, combined with new delivery platforms, raises the question of when telemonitored-based CR could replace conventional approaches as the standard practice.

Reducing the Risk of Alcohol and Other Drugs in Construction : An Australian Assessment

There is increasing concern about the impact of employees’ alcohol and other drug (AOD) consumption on workplace safety, particularly within the construction industry. No known study has scientifically evaluated the relationship between the use of drugs and alcohol and safety impacts in construction, and there has been only limited adoption of nationally coordinated strategies, supported by employers and employees to render it socially unacceptable to arrive at a construction workplace with impaired judgment from AODs. This research aims to scientifically evaluate the use of AODs within the Australian construction industry in order to reduce the potential resulting safety and performance impacts and engender a cultural change in the workforce. Using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), the study will adopt both quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate the extent of general AOD use in the industry. Results indicate that a proportion of the construction sector may be at risk of hazardous alcohol consumption. A total of 286 respondents (58%) scored above the cut-off score for risky alcohol use with 43 respondents (15%) scoring in the significantly ‘at risk’ category. Other drug use was also identified as a major issue that must be addressed. Results support the need for evidence-based, preventative educational initiatives that are tailored specifically to the construction industry.

What are the offence and offender risk factors for Indigenous repeat drink drivers in Queensland?

In Australia and internationally, there is scant information about Indigenous repeat drink drivers. The aim was to identify the risk factors associated with repeat offending. De-identified data on drink driving convictions by offenders identifying as Indigenous in Queensland between 2006 and 2010 were examined. A range of univariate analyses were used to compare first time and repeat offenders on gender, age, court location and region (based on the accessibility/remoteness index of Australia), blood alcohol concentration and sentencing severity. Multivariate logistic regression adjusted for confounding variables. Convictions for repeat offenders were more likely from locations other than ‘major cities’ with the association strongest for courts in the ‘very remote’ region (OR=2.75, 2.06-3.76, p<.001). Indigenous offenders 40 years or older were found to be at reduced risk in comparison to offenders aged 15-24 years (OR=0.68, 0.54-0.86, p=0.01). After controlling for confounding factors, gender, sentencing severity and blood alcohol concentration levels were not significantly associated with recidivism. The association of recidivism and remoteness is consistent with higher rates of alcohol-related transport accidents involving Indigenous Australians in isolated areas. This study provides a platform for future research and allows for early attempts to address the need for intervention to reduce Indigenous drink driving recidivism.

Perianal disease combined with NOD2 genotype predicts need for IBD-related surgery in Crohn’s Disease patients from a population-based cohort

Background: Patients with Crohn’s disease (CD) often require surgery at some stage of disease course. Prediction of CD outcome is influenced by clinical, environmental, serological, and genetic factors (eg, NOD2). Being able to identify CD patients at high risk of surgical intervention should assist clinicians to decide whether or not to prescribe early aggressive treatment with immunomodulators. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of selected clinical (age at diagnosis, perianal disease, active smoking) and genetic (NOD2 genotype) data obtained for a population-based CD cohort from the Canterbury Inflammatory Bowel Disease study. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of complicated outcome in these CD patients (ie, need for inflammatory bowel disease-related surgery). Results: Perianal disease and the NOD2 genotype were the only independent factors associated with the need for surgery in this patient group (odds ratio=2.84 and 1.60, respectively). By combining the associated NOD2 genotype with perianal disease we generated a single “clinicogenetic” variable. This was strongly associated with increased risk of surgery (odds ratio=3.84, P=0.00, confidence interval, 2.28-6.46) and offered moderate predictive accuracy (positive predictive value=0.62). Approximately 1/3 of surgical outcomes in this population are attributable to the NOD2+PA variable (attributable risk=0.32). Conclusions: Knowledge of perianal disease and NOD2 genotype in patients presenting with CD may offer clinicians some decision-making utility for early diagnosis of complicated CD progression and initiating intensive treatment to avoid surgical intervention. Future studies should investigate combination effects of other genetic, clinical, and environmental factors when attempting to identify predictors of complicated CD outcomes.

Changing parental high risk behaviour in the reduction of SIDS : the imperative of translational research

Objectives To investigate the factors associated with sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) from birth to age 2 years, whether recent advice has been followed, whether any new risk factors have emerged, and the specific circumstances in which SIDS occurs while cosleeping (infant sharing the same bed or sofa with an adult or child). Design Four year population based case-control study. Parents were interviewed shortly after the death or after the reference sleep (within 24 hours) of the two control groups. Setting South west region of England (population 4.9 million, 184 800 births). Participants 80 SIDS infants and two control groups weighted for age and time of reference sleep: 87 randomly selected controls and 82 controls at high risk of SIDS (young, socially deprived, multiparous mothers who smoked). Results The median age at death (66 days) was more than three weeks less than in a study in the same region a decade earlier. Of the SIDS infants, 54% died while cosleeping compared with 20% among both control groups. Much of this excess may be explained by a significant multivariable interaction between cosleeping and recent parental use of alcohol or drugs (31% v 3% random controls) and the increased proportion of SIDS infants who had coslept on a sofa (17% v 1%). One fifth of SIDS infants used a pillow for the last sleep (21% v 3%) and one quarter were swaddled (24% v 6%). More mothers of SIDS infants than random control infants smoked during pregnancy (60% v 14%), whereas one quarter of the SIDS infants were preterm (26% v 5%) or were in fair or poor health for the last sleep (28% v 6%). All of these differences were significant in the multivariable analysis regardless of which control group was used for comparison. The significance of covering the infant’s head, postnatal exposure to tobacco smoke, dummy use, and sleeping in the side position has diminished although a significant proportion of SIDS infants were still found prone (29% v 10%). Conclusions Many of the SIDS infants had coslept in a hazardous environment. The major influences on risk, regardless of markers for socioeconomic deprivation, are amenable to change and specific advice needs to be given, particularly on use of alcohol or drugs before cosleeping and cosleeping on a sofa.