Calculate excess mortality during heatwaves using Hilbert-Huang transform algorithm

Background Heatwaves could cause the population excess death numbers to be ranged from tens to thousands within a couple of weeks in a local area. An excess mortality due to a special event (e.g., a heatwave or an epidemic outbreak) is estimated by subtracting the mortality figure under ‘normal’ conditions from the historical daily mortality records. The calculation of the excess mortality is a scientific challenge because of the stochastic temporal pattern of the daily mortality data which is characterised by (a) the long-term changing mean levels (i.e., non-stationarity); (b) the non-linear temperature-mortality association. The Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) algorithm is a novel method originally developed for analysing the non-linear and non-stationary time series data in the field of signal processing, however, it has not been applied in public health research. This paper aimed to demonstrate the applicability and strength of the HHT algorithm in analysing health data. Methods Special R functions were developed to implement the HHT algorithm to decompose the daily mortality time series into trend and non-trend components in terms of the underlying physical mechanism. The excess mortality is calculated directly from the resulting non-trend component series. Results The Brisbane (Queensland, Australia) and the Chicago (United States) daily mortality time series data were utilized for calculating the excess mortality associated with heatwaves. The HHT algorithm estimated 62 excess deaths related to the February 2004 Brisbane heatwave. To calculate the excess mortality associated with the July 1995 Chicago heatwave, the HHT algorithm needed to handle the mode mixing issue. The HHT algorithm estimated 510 excess deaths for the 1995 Chicago heatwave event. To exemplify potential applications, the HHT decomposition results were used as the input data for a subsequent regression analysis, using the Brisbane data, to investigate the association between excess mortality and different risk factors. Conclusions The HHT algorithm is a novel and powerful analytical tool in time series data analysis. It has a real potential to have a wide range of applications in public health research because of its ability to decompose a nonlinear and non-stationary time series into trend and non-trend components consistently and efficiently.

Statistical analysis of reduction in tensile strength of cotton strips as a measure of soil microbial activity

The cotton strip assay (CSA) is an established technique for measuring soil microbial activity. The technique involves burying cotton strips and measuring their tensile strength after a certain time. This gives a measure of the rotting rate, R, of the cotton strips. R is then a measure of soil microbial activity. This paper examines properties of the technique and indicates how the assay can be optimised. Humidity conditioning of the cotton strips before measuring their tensile strength reduced the within and between day variance and enabled the distribution of the tensile strength measurements to approximate normality. The test data came from a three-way factorial experiment (two soils, two temperatures, three moisture levels). The cotton strips were buried in the soil for intervals of time ranging up to 6 weeks. This enabled the rate of loss of cotton tensile strength with time to be studied under a range of conditions. An inverse cubic model accounted for greater than 90% of the total variation within each treatment combination. This offers support for summarising the decomposition process by a single parameter R. The approximate variance of the decomposition rate was estimated from a function incorporating the variance of tensile strength and the differential of the function for the rate of decomposition, R, with respect to tensile strength. This variance function has a minimum when the measured strength is approximately 2/3 that of the original strength. The estimates of R are almost unbiased and relatively robust against the cotton strips being left in the soil for more or less than the optimal time. We conclude that the rotting rate X should be measured using the inverse cubic equation, and that the cotton strips should be left in the soil until their strength has been reduced to about 2/3.

Computation of ECG signal features using MCMC modelling in software and FPGA reconfigurable hardware

Computational optimisation of clinically important electrocardiogram signal features, within a single heart beat, using a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is undertaken. A detailed, efficient data-driven software implementation of an MCMC algorithm has been shown. Initially software parallelisation is explored and has been shown that despite the large amount of model parameter inter-dependency that parallelisation is possible. Also, an initial reconfigurable hardware approach is explored for future applicability to real-time computation on a portable ECG device, under continuous extended use.

Catalytic probes with nanostructured surface for gas/discharge diagnostics : a study of a probe signal behaviour

Catalytic probes are used for plasma diagnostics in order to quantify the density of neutral atoms. The probe response primarily depends on the probe material and its surface morphology. Here we report on the design, operation and modelling of the response of niobium pentoxide sensors with a flat and nanowire (NW) surfaces. These sensors were used to detect neutral oxygen atoms in the afterglow region of an inductively coupled rf discharge in oxygen. A very different response of the flat-surface and NW probes to the varying densities of oxygen atoms was explained by modelling heat conduction and taking into account the associated temperature gradients. It was found that the nanostructure probe can measure in a broader range than the flat oxide probe due to an increase in the surface to volume ratio, and the presence of nanostructures which act as a thermal barrier against sensor overheating. These results can be used for the development of the new generation of catalytic probes for gas/discharge diagnostics in a range of industrial and environmental applications.

Reversible and semi-blind relational database watermarking

Database watermarking has received significant research attention in the current decade. Although, almost all watermarking models have been either irreversible (the original relation cannot be restored from the watermarked relation) and/or non-blind (requiring original relation to detect the watermark in watermarked relation). This model has several disadvantages over reversible and blind watermarking (requiring only watermarked relation and secret key from which the watermark is detected and original relation is restored) including inability to identify rightful owner in case of successful secondary watermarking, inability to revert the relation to original data set (required in high precision industries) and requirement to store unmarked relation at a secure secondary storage. To overcome these problems, we propose a watermarking scheme that is reversible as well as blind. We utilize difference expansion on integers to achieve reversibility. The major advantages provided by our scheme are reversibility to high quality original data set, rightful owner identification, resistance against secondary watermarking attacks, and no need to store original database at a secure secondary storage.

Eccentric hamstring strength and hamstring injury risk in Australian footballers

Purpose Is eccentric hamstring strength and between limb imbalance in eccentric strength, measured during the Nordic hamstring exercise, a risk factor for hamstring strain injury (HSI)? Methods Elite Australian footballers (n=210) from five different teams participated. Eccentric hamstring strength during the Nordic was taken at the commencement and conclusion of preseason training and in season. Injury history and demographic data were also collected. Reports on prospectively occurring HSIs were completed by team medical staff. Relative risk (RR) was determined for univariate data and logistic regression was employed for multivariate data. Results Twenty-eight HSIs were recorded. Eccentric hamstring strength below 256N at the start of preseason and 279N at the end of preseason increased risk of future HSI 2.7 (relative risk, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 5.5; p = 0.006) and 4.3 fold (relative risk, 4.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.7 to 11.0; p = 0.002) respectively. Between limb imbalance in strength of greater than 10% did not increase the risk of future HSI. Univariate analysis did not reveal a significantly greater relative risk for future HSI in athletes who had sustained a lower limb injury of any kind within the last 12 months. Logistic regression revealed interactions between both athlete age and history of HSI with eccentric hamstring strength, whereby the likelihood of future HSI in older athletes or athletes with a history of HSI was reduced if an athlete had high levels of eccentric strength. Conclusion Low levels of eccentric hamstring strength increased the risk of future HSI. Interaction effects suggest that the additional risk of future HSI associated with advancing age or previous injury was mitigated by higher levels of eccentric hamstring strength.

Real or imagined? A study exploring the existence of common method variance effects in road safety research

Common method variance (CMV) has received little attention within the field of road safety research despite a heavy reliance on self-report data. Two surveys were completed by 214 motorists over a two-month period, allowing associations between social desirability and key road safety variables and relationships between scales across the two survey waves to be examined. Social desirability was found to have a strong negative correlation with the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) sub-scales as well as age, but not with crashes and offences. Drivers who scored higher on the social desirability scale were also less likely to report aberrant driving behaviours as measured by the DBQ. Controlling for social desirability did not substantially alter the predictive relationship between the DBQ and the crash and offences variables. The strength of the correlations within and between the two waves were also compared with the results strongly suggesting that effects associated with CMV were present. Identification of CMV would be enhanced by the replication of this study with a larger sample size and comparing self-report data with official sources.

Stop-signal task difficulty and the right inferior frontal gyrus

The stop-signal paradigm is increasingly being used as a probe of response inhibition in basic and clinical neuroimaging research. The critical feature of this task is that a cued response is countermanded by a secondary ‘stop-signal’ stimulus offset from the first by a ‘stop-signal delay’. Here we explored the role of task difficulty in the stop-signal task with the hypothesis that what is critical for successful inhibition is the time available for stopping, that we define as the difference between stop-signal onset and the expected response time (approximated by reaction time from previous trial). We also used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine how the time available for stopping affects activity in the putative right inferior frontal gyrus and presupplementary motor area (right IFG-preSMA) network that is known to support stopping. While undergoing fMRI scanning, participants performed a stop-signal variant where the time available for stopping was kept approximately constant across participants, which enabled us to compare how the time available for stopping affected stop-signal task difficulty both within and between subjects. Importantly, all behavioural and neuroimaging data were consistent with previous findings. We found that the time available for stopping distinguished successful from unsuccessful inhibition trials, was independent of stop-signal delay, and affected successful inhibition depending upon individual SSRT. We also found that right IFG and adjacent anterior insula were more strongly activated during more difficult stopping. These findings may have critical implications for stop-signal studies that compare different patient or other groups using fixed stop-signal delays.

Stop-signal response inhibition in schizophrenia : Behavioural, event-related potential and functional neuroimaging data

Inhibitory control deficits are well documented in schizophrenia, supported by impairment in an established measure of response inhibition, the stop-signal reaction time (SSRT). We investigated the neural basis of this impairment by comparing schizophrenia patients and controls matched for age, sex and education on behavioural, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and event-related potential (ERP) indices of stop-signal task performance. Compared to controls, patients exhibited slower SSRT and reduced right inferior frontal gyrus (rIFG) activation, but rIFG activation correlated with SSRT in both groups. Go stimulus and stop-signal ERP components (N1/P3) were smaller in patients, but the peak latencies of stop-signal N1 and P3 were also delayed in patients, indicating impairment early in stop-signal processing. Additionally, response-locked lateralised readiness potentials indicated response preparation was prolonged in patients. An inability to engage rIFG may predicate slowed inhibition in patients, however multiple spatiotemporal irregularities in the networks underpinning stop-signal task performance may contribute to this deficit.

Temperature and strain-rate dependent fracture strength of graphynes

Graphyne is an allotrope of graphene. The mechanical properties of graphynes (α-, β-, γ- and 6,6,12-graphynes) under uniaxial tension deformation at different temperatures and strain rates are studied using molecular dynamics simulations. It is found that graphynes are more sensitive to temperature changes than graphene in terms of fracture strength and Young's modulus. The temperature sensitivity of the different graphynes is proportionally related to the percentage of acetylenic linkages in their structures, with the α-graphyne (having 100% of acetylenic linkages) being most sensitive to temperature. For the same graphyne, temperature exerts a more pronounced effect on the Young's modulus than fracture strength, which is different from that of graphene. The mechanical properties of graphynes are also sensitive to strain rate, in particular at higher temperatures.

Advances in gyro-stabilisation of vessel roll motion

The use of gyro-dynamic forces to counteract the wave-induced roll motion of marine vessels in a seaway was proposed over 100 years ago. These early systems showed a remarkable performance, reporting roll reductions of up to 95% in some sailing conditions. Despite this success, further developments were not pursued since the systems were unable to provide acceptable performance over an extended envelope of sailing and environmental conditions, and the invention of fin roll stabilisers provided a satisfactory alternative. This has been attributed to simplistic controls, heavy drive systems, and large structural mass required to withstand the loads given the low strength materials available at the time. Today, advances in material strength, bearings, motor technology and mechanical design methods, together with powerful signal processing algorithms, has resulted in a revitalized interest in gyro-stabilisers for ships. Advanced control systems have enabled optimisation of restoring torques across a range of wave environments and sailing conditions through adaptive control system design. All of these improvements have resulted in increased spinning speed, lower mass, and dramatically increased stabilising performance. This brief paper provides an overview of recent developments in the design and control of gyro-stabilisers of ship roll motion. In particular, the novel Halcyon Gyro-Stabilisers are introduced, and their performance is illustrated based on a simulation case study for a naval patrol vessel. Given the growing national and global interest in small combatants and patrol vessels, modem gyro-stabilisers may offer a significant technological contribution to the age old problem of comfort and mission operability on small ships, especially at loiter speeds.

Electrochemical current rectification – a novel signal amplification strategy for highly sensitive and selective aptamer-based biosensor

Electrochemical aptamer-based (E-AB) sensors represent an emerging class of recently developed sensors. However, numerous of these sensors are limited by a low surface density of electrode-bound redox-oligonucleotides which are used as probe. Here we propose to use the concept of electrochemical current rectification (ECR) for the enhancement of the redox signal of E-AB sensors. Commonly, the probe-DNA performs a change in conformation during target binding and enables a nonrecurring charge transfer between redox-tag and electrode. In our system, the redox-tag of the probe-DNA is continuously replenished by solution-phase redox molecules. A unidirectional electron transfer from electrode via surface-linked redox-tag to the solution-phase redox molecules arises that efficiently amplifies the current response. Using this robust and straight-forward strategy, the developed sensor showed a substantial signal amplification and consequently improved sensitivity with a calculated detection limit of 114 nM for ATP, which was improved by one order of magnitude compared with the amplification-free detection and superior to other previous detection results using enzymes or nanomaterials-based signal amplification. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of an aptamer-based electrochemical biosensor involving electrochemical rectification, which can be presumably transferred to other biomedical sensor systems.