A complex system perspective on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases: integrating economic and ecological aspects

The emergence and spread of infectious diseases reflects the interaction of ecological and economic factors within an adaptive complex system. We review studies that address the role of economic factors in the emergence and spread of infectious diseases and identify three broad themes. First, the process of macro-economic growth leads to environmental encroaching, which is related to the emergence of infectious diseases. Second, there are a number of mutually reinforcing processes associated with the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. For example, the emergence and spread of infectious diseases can cause significant economic damages, which in turn may create the conditions for further disease spread. Also, the existence of a mutually reinforcing relationship between global trade and macroeconomic growth amplifies the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. Third, microeconomic approaches to infectious disease point to the adaptivity of human behavior, which simultaneously shapes the course of epidemics and responds to it. Most of the applied research has been focused on the first two aspects, and to a lesser extent on the third aspect. With respect to the latter, there is a lack of empirical research aimed at characterizing the behavioral component following a disease outbreak. Future research should seek to fill this gap and develop hierarchical econometric models capable of integrating both macro and micro-economic processes into disease ecology.

Impact of the modal aerosol scheme GLOMAP-mode on aerosol forcing in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model

The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) includes two aerosol schemes: the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies in Climate (CLASSIC), and the new Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP-mode). GLOMAP-mode is a modal aerosol microphysics scheme that simulates not only aerosol mass but also aerosol number, represents internally-mixed particles, and includes aerosol microphysical processes such as nucleation. In this study, both schemes provide hindcast simulations of natural and anthropogenic aerosol species for the period 2000–2006. HadGEM simulations of the aerosol optical depth using GLOMAP-mode compare better than CLASSIC against a data-assimilated aerosol re-analysis and aerosol ground-based observations. Because of differences in wet deposition rates, GLOMAP-mode sulphate aerosol residence time is two days longer than CLASSIC sulphate aerosols, whereas black carbon residence time is much shorter. As a result, CLASSIC underestimates aerosol optical depths in continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere and likely overestimates absorption in remote regions. Aerosol direct and first indirect radiative forcings are computed from simulations of aerosols with emissions for the year 1850 and 2000. In 1850, GLOMAP-mode predicts lower aerosol optical depths and higher cloud droplet number concentrations than CLASSIC. Consequently, simulated clouds are much less susceptible to natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes when the microphysical scheme is used. In particular, the response of cloud condensation nuclei to an increase in dimethyl sulphide emissions becomes a factor of four smaller. The combined effect of different 1850 baselines, residence times, and abilities to affect cloud droplet number, leads to substantial differences in the aerosol forcings simulated by the two schemes. GLOMAP-mode finds a presentday direct aerosol forcing of −0.49Wm−2 on a global average, 72% stronger than the corresponding forcing from CLASSIC. This difference is compensated by changes in first indirect aerosol forcing: the forcing of −1.17Wm−2 obtained with GLOMAP-mode is 20% weaker than with CLASSIC. Results suggest that mass-based schemes such as CLASSIC lack the necessary sophistication to provide realistic input to aerosol-cloud interaction schemes. Furthermore, the importance of the 1850 baseline highlights how model skill in predicting present-day aerosol does not guarantee reliable forcing estimates. Those findings suggest that the more complex representation of aerosol processes in microphysical schemes improves the fidelity of simulated aerosol forcings.

On the environmental valuation of catastrophe: revisiting mining disasters in the United Kingdom, 1851-1962

In the context of environmental valuation of natural disasters, an important component of the evaluation procedure lies in determining the periodicity of events. This paper explores alternative methodologies for determining such periodicity, illustrating the advantages and the disadvantages of the separate methods and their comparative predictions. The procedures employ Bayesian inference and explore recent advances in computational aspects of mixtures methodology. The procedures are applied to the classic data set of Maguire et al (Biometrika, 1952) which was subsequently updated by Jarrett (Biometrika, 1979) and which comprise the seminal investigations examining the periodicity of mining disasters within the United Kingdom, 1851-1962.

Focus on high energy particles and atmospheric processes

The letters published in the ‘Focus issue on high energy particles and atmospheric processes’ serve to broaden the discussion about the influence of high energy particles on the atmosphere beyond their possible effects on clouds and climate. These letters link climate and meteorological processes with atmospheric electricity, atmospheric chemistry, high energy physics and aerosol science from the smallest molecular cluster ions through to liquid droplets. Progress in such a disparate and complex topic is very likely to benefit from continued interdisciplinary interactions between traditionally distinct science areas.

A methodology to measure the environmental impact of ICT operating systems across different device platforms

Abstract: A new methodology was created to measure the energy consumption and related green house gas (GHG) emissions of a computer operating system (OS) across different device platforms. The methodology involved the direct power measurement of devices under different activity states. In order to include all aspects of an OS, the methodology included measurements in various OS modes, whilst uniquely, also incorporating measurements when running an array of defined software activities, so as to include OS application management features. The methodology was demonstrated on a laptop and phone that could each run multiple OSs, results confirmed that OS can significantly impact the energy consumption of devices. In particular, the new versions of the Microsoft Windows OS were tested and highlighted significant differences between the OS versions on the same hardware. The developed methodology could enable a greater awareness of energy consumption, during both the software development and software marketing processes.

Aspects of particle filtering in high-dimensional spaces

Nonlinear data assimilation is high on the agenda in all fields of the geosciences as with ever increasing model resolution and inclusion of more physical (biological etc.) processes, and more complex observation operators the data-assimilation problem becomes more and more nonlinear. The suitability of particle filters to solve the nonlinear data assimilation problem in high-dimensional geophysical problems will be discussed. Several existing and new schemes will be presented and it is shown that at least one of them, the Equivalent-Weights Particle Filter, does indeed beat the curse of dimensionality and provides a way forward to solve the problem of nonlinear data assimilation in high-dimensional systems.

Exposure to ambient levels of particles emitted by traffic worsens emphysema in mice

Objectives: We investigated effects of chronic exposure (2 months) to ambient levels of particulate matter (PM) on development of protease-induced emphysema and pulmonary remodeling in mice. Methods: Balb/c mice received nasal drop of either papain or normal saline and were kept in two exposure chambers situated in an area with high traffic density. One of them received ambient air and the other had filters for PM. Results: mean concentration of PM10 was 2.68 +/- 0.38 and 33.86 +/- 2.09 mu g/m(3), respectively, in the filtered and ambient air chambers (p<0.001). After 2 months of exposure, lungs from papain-treated mice kept in the chamber with ambient air presented greater values of mean linear intercept, an increase in density of collagen fibers in alveolar septa and in expression of 8-isoprostane (p = 0.002, p < 0.05 and p = 0.002, respectively, compared to papain-treated mice kept in the chamber with filtered air). We did not observe significant differences between these two groups in density of macrophages and in amount of cells expressing matrix metalloproteinase-12. There were no significant differences in saline-treated mice kept in the two chambers. Conclusions: We conclude that exposure to urban levels of PM worsens protease-induced emphysema and increases pulmonary remodeling. We suggest that an increase in oxidative stress induced by PM exposure influences this response. These pulmonary effects of PM were observed only in mice with emphysema. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Involvement of sensory nerves and TRPV1 receptors in the rat airway inflammatory response to two environment pollutants: diesel exhaust particles (DEP) and 1,2-naphthoquinone (1,2-NQ)

The environmental chemical 1,2-naphthoquinone (1,2-NQ) is implicated in the exacerbation of airways diseases induced by exposure to diesel exhaust particles (DEP), which involves a neurogenic-mediated mechanism. Plasma extravasation in trachea, main bronchus and lung was measured as the local (125)I-bovine albumin accumulation. RT-PCR quantification of TRPV1 and tachykinin (NK(1) and NK(2)) receptor gene expression were investigated in main bronchus. Intratracheal injection of DEP (1 and 5 mg/kg) or 1,2-NQ (35 and 100 nmol/kg) caused oedema in trachea and bronchus. 1,2-NQ markedly increased the DEP-induced responses in the rat airways in an additive rather than synergistic manner. This effect that was significantly reduced by L-732,138, an NK(1) receptor antagonist, and in a lesser extent by SR48968, an NK(2) antagonist. Neonatal capsaicin treatment also markedly reduced DEP and 1,2-NQ-induced oedema. Exposure to pollutants increased the TRPV1, NK(1) and NK(2) receptors gene expression in bronchus, an effect was partially suppressed by capsaicin treatment. In conclusion, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that DEP-induced airways oedema is highly influenced by increased ambient levels of 1,2-NQ and takes place by neurogenic mechanisms involving up-regulation of TRPV1 and tachykinin receptors.

Mass spectral characterization of submicron biogenic organic particles in the Amazon Basin

Submicron atmospheric particles in the Amazon Basin were characterized by a high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer during the wet season of 2008. Patterns in the mass spectra closely resembled those of secondary-organic-aerosol (SOA) particles formed in environmental chambers from biogenic precursor gases. In contrast, mass spectral indicators of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) were insignificant, suggesting that PBAPs contributed negligibly to the submicron fraction of particles during the period of study. For 40% of the measurement periods, the mass spectra indicate that in-Basin biogenic SOA production was the dominant source of the submicron mass fraction, contrasted to other periods (30%) during which out-of-Basin organic-carbon sources were significant on top of the baseline in-Basin processes. The in-Basin periods had an average organic-particle loading of 0.6 mu g m(-3) and an average elemental oxygen-to-carbon (O:C) ratio of 0.42, compared to 0.9 mu g m(-3) and 0.49, respectively, during periods of out-of-Basin influence. On the basis of the data, we conclude that most of the organic material composing submicron particles over the Basin derived from biogenic SOA production, a finding that is consistent with microscopy observations made in a concurrent study. This source was augmented during some periods by aged organic material delivered by long-range transport. Citation: Chen, Q., et al. (2009), Mass spectral characterization of submicron biogenic organic particles in the Amazon Basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20806, doi: 10.1029/2009GL039880.

Ni-Zn-Sm nanopowder ferrites: Morphological aspects and magnetic properties

Ni-Zn ferrites have been widely used in components for high-frequency range applications due to their high electrical resistivity, mechanical strength and chemical stability. Ni-Zn ferrite nanopowders doped with samarium with a nominal composition of Ni0.5Zn0.5Fe2-xSmxO4 (x = 0.0, 0.05, and 0.1 mol) were obtained by combustion synthesis using nitrates and urea as fuel. The morphological aspects of Ni-Zn-Sm ferrite nanopowders were investigated by X-ray diffraction, nitrogen adsorption by BET, sedimentation, scanning electron microscopy and magnetic properties. The results indicated that the Ni-Zn-Sm ferrite nanopowders were composed of soft agglomerates of nanoparticles with a high surface area (55.8-64.8 m(2)/g), smaller particles (18-20 nm) and nanocrystallite size particles. The addition of samarium resulted in a reduction of all the magnetic parameters evaluated, namely saturation magnetization (24-40 emu/g), remanent magnetization (2.2-3.5 emu/g) and coercive force (99.3-83.3 Oe). (c) 2007 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Decision Support Systems And Promoting Socially Just Environmental Management

The Mauri Model DMF is unique in its approach to the management of water resources as the framework offers a transparent and inclusive approach to considering the environmental, economic, social and cultural aspects of the decisions being contemplated. The Mauri Model DMF is unique because it is capable of including multiple-worldviews and adopts mauri (intrinsic value or well-being) in the place of the more common monetised assessments of pseudo sustainability using Cost Benefit Analysis. The Mauri Model DMF uses a two stage process that first identifies participants’ worldviews and inherent bias regarding water resource management, and then facilitates transparent assessment of selected sustainability performance indicators. The assessment can then be contemplated as the separate environmental, economic, social and cultural dimensions of the decision, and collectively as an overall result; or the priorities associated with different worldviews can be applied to determine the sensitivity of the result to different cultural contexts or worldviews.

Reaction of Bipolaris euphorbiae to environmental factors and its tolerance to solar and ultraviolet radiation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Trends in rheumatic fever: clinical aspects and perspectives in prophylactic treatments

Introduction: Rheumatic fever (RF), a systemic illness that may occur following Group A beta-hemolytic streptococcal (GABHS) pharyngitis in children, is a major problem in countries with limited resources. Because of its long track record and low cost, an injection of benzathine penicillin G (BPG) suspension every 3 or 4 weeks has been used as secondary prophylaxis. Despite its excellent in vitro efficacy, the inability of BPG to eradicate GABHS has been frequently reported.Areas covered: This work reviews the possible causes of failure, as well as the inconvenience of the current prophylactic treatment of acute RF and suggests a new pharmacotherapeutic system that could replace the current one.Expert opinion: RF is a major problem concerning only countries with limited resources and could be considered as a neglected disease. The dose regimen using BPG suspension results in failures, which could be avoided by the use of nanocarrier-based systems. To meet this ultimate goal, the research should be transposed from the laboratory scale to an industrial and clinical application level. This research should be conducted to produce a pharmaceutical dosage form that will be commercially available, consumed by and affordable for patients. However, health, environmental and socioeconomic hazards should be considered.

Ecological impacts from syngas burning in internal combustion engine: Technical and economic aspects

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)