Threshold detection: matching statistical methodology to ecological questions and conservation planning objectives

Two types of ecological thresholds are now being widely used to develop conservation targets: breakpoint-based thresholds represent tipping points where system properties change dramatically, whereas classification thresholds identify groups of data points with contrasting properties. Both breakpoint-based and classification thresholds are useful tools in evidence-based conservation. However, it is critical that the type of threshold to be estimated corresponds with the question of interest and that appropriate statistical procedures are used to determine its location. On the basis of their statistical properties, we recommend using piecewise regression methods to identify breakpoint-based thresholds and discriminant analysis or classification and regression trees to identify classification thresholds.

Inconsistencies between satellite estimates of longwave cloud forcing and dynamical fields from reanalyses

The greenhouse effect of cloud may be quantified as the difference between outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and its clear-sky component (OLRc). Clear-sky measurements from satellite preferentially sample drier, more stable conditions relative to the monthly-mean state. The resulting observational bias is evident when OLRc is stratified by vertical motion; differences to climate model OLRc of 15 Wm−2 occur over warm regions of strong ascent. Using data from the ECMWF 40-year reanalysis, an estimate of cloud longwave radiative effect is made which is directly comparable with standard climate model diagnostics. The impact of this methodology on the cancellation of cloud longwave and shortwave radiative forcing in the tropics is estimated.

Exploitation of Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget data using simulations from a numerical weather prediction model: Methodology and data validation

We describe a new methodology for comparing satellite radiation budget data with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. This is applied to data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument on Meteosat-8. The methodology brings together, in near-real time, GERB broadband shortwave and longwave fluxes with simulations based on analyses produced by the Met Office global NWP model. Results for the period May 2003 to February 2005 illustrate the progressive improvements in the data products as various initial problems were resolved. In most areas the comparisons reveal systematic errors in the model's representation of surface properties and clouds, which are discussed elsewhere. However, for clear-sky regions over the oceans the model simulations are believed to be sufficiently accurate to allow the quality of the GERB fluxes themselves to be assessed and any changes in time of the performance of the instrument to be identified. Using model and radiosonde profiles of temperature and humidity as input to a single-column version of the model's radiation code, we conduct sensitivity experiments which provide estimates of the expected model errors over the ocean of about ±5–10 W m−2 in clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and ±0.01 in clear-sky albedo. For the more recent data the differences between the observed and modeled OLR and albedo are well within these error estimates. The close agreement between the observed and modeled values, particularly for the most recent period, illustrates the value of the methodology. It also contributes to the validation of the GERB products and increases confidence in the quality of the data, prior to their release.

Development of a methodology to investigate the importance of chemical speciation on the bioavailability of contaminants to Eisenia andrei

The uptake of metals by earthworms occurs predominantly via the soil pore water, or via an uptake route which is related to the soil pore water metal concentration. However, it has been suggested that the speciation of the metal is also important. A novel technique is described which exposes Eisenia andrei Bouche to contaminant bearing solutions in which the chemical factors affecting its speciation may be individually and systematically manipulated. In a preliminary experiment, the LC50 for copper nitrate was 0.046 mg l(-1) (95 % confidence intervals: 0.03 and 0.07 mg l(-1)). There was a significant positive correlation between earthworm mortality and bulk copper concentration in solution (R-2 = 0.88, P less than or equal to 0.001), and a significant positive increase in earthworm tissue copper concentration with increasing copper concentration in solution (R-2 = 0.97, P less than or equal to 0.001). It is anticipated that quantifying the effect of soil solution chemical speciation on copper bioavailability will provide an excellent aid to understanding the importance of chemical composition and the speciation of metals, in the calculation of toxicological parameters.

Experimental crop growing in Jordan to develop methodology for the identification of ancient crop irrigation

Crop irrigation has long been recognized as having been important for the evolution of social complexity in several parts of the world. Structural evidence for water management, as in the form of wells, ditches and dams, is often difficult to interpret and may be a poor indicator of past irrigation that may have had no need for such constructions. It would be of considerable value, therefore, to be able to infer past irrigation directly from archaeo-botanical remains, and especially the type of archaeo-botanical remains that are relatively abundant in the archaeological record, such as phytoliths. Building on the pioneering work of Rosen and Wiener (1994), this paper describes a crop-growing experiment designed to explore the impact of irrigation on the formation of phytoliths within cereals. If it can be shown that a systemic and consistent relationship exists between phytolith size, structure and the intensity of irrigation, and if various taphonomic and palaeoenvironmental processes can be controlled for, then the presence of past irrigation can feasibly be inferred from the phytoliths recovered from the archaeological record.

An application of the GLUE methodology for estimating the parameters of the INCA-N model

The conceptual and parameter uncertainty of the semi-distributed INCA-N (Integrated Nutrients in Catchments-Nitrogen) model was studied using the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) methodology combined with quantitative experimental knowledge, the concept known as 'soft data'. Cumulative inorganic N leaching, annual plant N uptake and annual mineralization proved to be useful soft data to constrain the parameter space. The INCA-N model was able to simulate the seasonal and inter-annual variations in the stream-water nitrate concentrations, although the lowest concentrations during the growing season were not reproduced. This suggested that there were some retention processes or losses either in peatland/wetland areas or in the river which were not included in the INCA-N model. The results of the study suggested that soft data was a way to reduce parameter equifinality, and that the calibration and testing of distributed hydrological and nutrient leaching models should be based both on runoff and/or nutrient concentration data and the qualitative knowledge of experimentalist. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much ( or too little) greenhouse warming by too much ( or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater ( at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr(-1) increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century(-1) (5-95 percentiles).