Efficient semiparametric estimation of quantile treatment effects

This paper presents calculations of semiparametric efficiency bounds for quantile treatment effects parameters when se1ection to treatment is based on observable characteristics. The paper also presents three estimation procedures forthese parameters, alI ofwhich have two steps: a nonparametric estimation and a computation ofthe difference between the solutions of two distinct minimization problems. Root-N consistency, asymptotic normality, and the achievement ofthe semiparametric efficiency bound is shown for one ofthe three estimators. In the final part ofthe paper, an empirical application to a job training program reveals the importance of heterogeneous treatment effects, showing that for this program the effects are concentrated in the upper quantiles ofthe earnings distribution.

Redes bayesianas aplicadas à modelagem de fraudes em cartão de crédito

Modelos para detecção de fraude são utilizados para identificar se uma transação é legítima ou fraudulenta com base em informações cadastrais e transacionais. A técnica proposta no estudo apresentado, nesta dissertação, consiste na de Redes Bayesianas (RB); seus resultados foram comparados à técnica de Regressão Logística (RL), amplamente utilizada pelo mercado. As Redes Bayesianas avaliadas foram os classificadores bayesianos, com a estrutura Naive Bayes. As estruturas das redes bayesianas foram obtidas a partir de dados reais, fornecidos por uma instituição financeira. A base de dados foi separada em amostras de desenvolvimento e validação por cross validation com dez partições. Naive Bayes foram os classificadores escolhidos devido à simplicidade e a sua eficiência. O desempenho do modelo foi avaliado levando-se em conta a matriz de confusão e a área abaixo da curva ROC. As análises dos modelos revelaram desempenho, levemente, superior da regressão logística quando comparado aos classificadores bayesianos. A regressão logística foi escolhida como modelo mais adequado por ter apresentado melhor desempenho na previsão das operações fraudulentas, em relação à matriz de confusão. Baseada na área abaixo da curva ROC, a regressão logística demonstrou maior habilidade em discriminar as operações que estão sendo classificadas corretamente, daquelas que não estão.

Eficiência, gestão e meio ambiente na carcinicultura do Rio Grande do Norte

SILVA, J. L. M. da; SAMPAIO, L. M. . Eficiência, Gestão e Meio Ambiente na Carcinicultura do Rio Grande do Norte. In: Congresso da Sociendade Brasileira de Economia, Administração e Sociologia Rural - SOBER, 40., 2007, Londrina. Conhecimentos para a Agricultura do Futuro, 2007.

An investigation of Hebbian phase sequences as assembly graphs

Hebb proposed that synapses between neurons that fire synchronously are strengthened, forming cell assemblies and phase sequences. The former, on a shorter scale, are ensembles of synchronized cells that function transiently as a closed processing system; the latter, on a larger scale, correspond to the sequential activation of cell assemblies able to represent percepts and behaviors. Nowadays, the recording of large neuronal populations allows for the detection of multiple cell assemblies. Within Hebb's theory, the next logical step is the analysis of phase sequences. Here we detected phase sequences as consecutive assembly activation patterns, and then analyzed their graph attributes in relation to behavior. We investigated action potentials recorded from the adult rat hippocampus and neocortex before, during and after novel object exploration (experimental periods). Within assembly graphs, each assembly corresponded to a node, and each edge corresponded to the temporal sequence of consecutive node activations. The sum of all assembly activations was proportional to firing rates, but the activity of individual assemblies was not. Assembly repertoire was stable across experimental periods, suggesting that novel experience does not create new assemblies in the adult rat. Assembly graph attributes, on the other hand, varied significantly across behavioral states and experimental periods, and were separable enough to correctly classify experimental periods (Naïve Bayes classifier; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.55 to 0.99) and behavioral states (waking, slow wave sleep, and rapid eye movement sleep; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.64 to 0.98). Our findings agree with Hebb's view that assemblies correspond to primitive building blocks of representation, nearly unchanged in the adult, while phase sequences are labile across behavioral states and change after novel experience. The results are compatible with a role for phase sequences in behavior and cognition.

Semiparametric modeling of the spatial distribution of occupational accident risk in the casual labor market, Piracicaba, southeast Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution of work accident risk in the informal work market in the urban zone of an industrialized city in southeast Brazil and to examine concomitant effects of age, gender, and type of occupation after controlling for spatial risk variation. The basic methodology adopted was that of a population-based case-control study with particular interest focused on the spatial location of work. Cases were all casual workers in the city suffering work accidents during a one-year period; controls were selected from the source population of casual laborers by systematic random sampling of urban homes. The spatial distribution of work accidents was estimated via a semiparametric generalized additive model with a nonparametric bidimensional spline of the geographical coordinates of cases and controls as the nonlinear spatial component, and including age, gender, and occupation as linear predictive variables in the parametric component. We analyzed 1,918 cases and 2,245 controls between 1/11/2003 and 31/10/2004 in Piracicaba, Brazil. Areas of significantly high and low accident risk were identified in relation to mean risk in the study region (p < 0.01). Work accident risk for informal workers varied significantly in the study area. Significant age, gender, and occupational group effects on accident risk were identified after correcting for this spatial variation. A good understanding of high-risk groups and high-risk regions underpins the formulation of hypotheses concerning accident causality and the development of effective public accident prevention policies.

Imagem corporal e fatores de risco em praticantes de caminhada da cidade do Natal-RN

Body image is the figure of our bodies built in our minds and the degree of dissatisfaction is often associated with risk factors identified by anthropometric measures. The purpose of this descriptive study was to evaluate the risk factors associated to morphological and functional variables associate to the perception of auto-image in middle-aged walkers of the south zone of the city of Natal. A hundred and thirty volunteers had been evaluated in four groups in function of the gender and age group. As measurement evaluations were used an auto-image perception questionnaire proposed by Stunkart of nine silhouettes numbered for both gender was applied; a weighing machine equipped with stadiometer for the body mass (kg) and stature (m) and the body mass index (kg/m2) that was calculated with base in measures of the body weight and stature and classified according to norms of the National Institute of Health (2000) as well as the systolic and diastolic blood pressure by a electronic digital device (DIGITRONIC). A metal anthropometric tape was used for the waist to hip ratio (WHR). It was used Analyses of variance (ANOVA) one-way, post hoc of Tukey and correlation of Spearman for the nonparametric data adopting the level of ρ≤ 0,05 for rejection of the null hypothesis. The body mass index indicated high factors of risk in the consisting groups. In all the groups were registered the desire to reduce their silhouettes. The body weight shows reduced when compared with the younger group in the male group of superior age group, while in the female group the inverse one occurs. The autoimage perception is associated with the classification of the waist to hip ratio in the female gender in the age group of the 50 to the 59 years and in the classification of the body mass index of all constituted groups. Significant associations had not been found for classification of the systolic and diastolic blood pressure in relation to the auto-image 41 perception. This thesis presents relation of interdisciplinarity and its contents have application in the fields of Physical Education, Medicine, Physiotherapy and Nursing

Contribuição à citogenética de testudines e análise de assimetria flutuante em Eretmochelys imbricata, Cheloniidae

This work has contributed to knowledge of the order Testudines from cytogenetic and morphological point of view. With regard to the aspects proposed cytogenetic characterization of the species Mesoclemmys tuberculata (n = 5), endemic to the Caatinga biomes, through conventional techniques of cytogenetics and molecular levels. This species presented 2n = 58, NF = 64, the first submetacentric pair, the second metacentric and third subtelocentric, and the other microchromosome telocentric. This species showed a nucleolar bearing pair, coincident with the 18S ribosomal rDNA and that proved to be heterochromatic. Small heterochromatic blocks were also found in the centromeres of the largest chromosomes, as well as terminal regions in most other chromosomes of the complement, that were GC +. Telomeric sequences showed variable patterns of signal intensity, with some repeats more intense in microchromosomes and subtly in the larger ones. When compared with other species of the genus, the G-banding patterns showed a marked similarity between them. The first karyotypic description of the species will aid in future studies and the understanding of evolutionary aspects of this family. From the morphological point of view, we carried out studies of fluctuating asymmetry in sea turtle Eretmochelys imbricata, using methods of benchmarking between hatchlings and adults and their implications for natural selection. Data were collected at two different times: first during the spawning female and the second during the outbreak and birth of the nest. The analyzed characteristics consisted of measurements of length and width of front and rear flippers (CANT, LANT, CPOS and LPOS) also collected data on the number of hull plates, side plates (NPL), the surrounding plates (NPCIRC), and plastron; plates power plants (NPP), inframarginais plates (NPIM). With the values of asymmetry we calculated the value of strict heritability for these traits, the calculation was based on only one parent. A nonparametric analysis Mann-Whitneywas performed to compare the groups (females X hatchlings, newborn hatchlings X dead hatchlings). Adult females showed no bilateral fluctuating asymmetry (FA = 0) on the number plates of the hull and plastron, while offspring, living and dead, showed a greater level of variation in these meristic parameters. In the analysis of females x hatchlings we found a significant difference between the levels of asymmetry in hoof plates (p=0.006) an the width of hindlimbs (p=0.001). Levels of FA suggest an accurate indicator as to the viability or maintenance of the individual to the reproductive phase. The coefficient of heritability (h2) of FA , obtained from the regression analysis, showed that both have low and not statistically significant values(p> 0.1). In the case of exclusion of the effective role of genetics in the generation of FA, reproductive strategies based on high number of subsidiaries products, such as those observed in E. imbricata seems to implicate the production of individuals with high level of developmental instability

Ecologia trófica de anfíbios anuros: relações filogenéticas em diferentes escalas

Understand the origin, maintenance and the mechanisms that operate in the current biodiversity is the major goal of ecology. Species ecology can be influenced by different factors at different scales. There are three approaches about the ecological differences between species: the first brings that differences result from current processes on niche characteristics (e.g. diet, time, space); the second that species differences are explained by random patterns of speciation, extinction and dispersion, the third that historical events explain the formation and composition of species in communities. This study aims to evaluate the influence of phylogenetic relationships in determining ecological characteristics in amphibians (globally) and test with that, if ecological differences between species of frogs are the result of ancient pre-existing differences or as result of current interactions. Another objective of this study is to verify if ecological, historical or current characteristics determine the size of species geographical distribution. The diet data for analysis of trophic ecology were collected from published literature. We performed a non-parametric MANOVA to test the existence of phylogenetic effects in diet shifts on frogs history. Thus, it is expected to know the main factors that allow the coexistence of anuran species. We performed a phylogenetic regression to analyze if niche breadth, body size and evolutionary age variables determine the size of the geographical distribution of amphibians in the Amazon. In the present study, new contributions to knowledge of major ecological patterns of anurans are discussed under a phylogenetic perspective

Reproductive and behavioral aspects of red-winged tinamous (Rhynchotus rufescens) in groups with different sex ratios

The aim of this research study was to evaluate the reproductive performance of tinamous submitted to five different male:female ratios. The study was carried out with 72 birds in a randomized experimental design with 4 replications. Tinamous were housed in cages, using the ratios of one (1:1), two (2:1), three (3:1) and four (4:1) females per male, and also one male was housed with three females individually (3R:1), in a rotational system. Reproductive records of the breeding season from September 2004 to March 2005 were used. The reproductive traits studied were: number of eggs laid, fertility, and percentage of eggs damaged and cracked by pecking. Nonparametric analyses of these traits were performed using Kruskal-Wallis test. Two replications of treatments 1:1 and 4:1, and one of treatment 2:1 were video-taped for three days, 12 hours/day. The videotapes were sampled according to the scan method to fit an ethogram. Birds were also watched for one hour per day to study dominance and agonistic behavior. None of the reproductive traits was affected by mating sex ratio (p<0.05). Female dominance could be related to displacement behavior (r=1.00), and male sitting in immobility plus sitting in activity behaviors were related to lower number of damaged eggs (r=-0.90). Social dominance was indirectly determined by displacement behavior in the study situation. A large number of damaged eggs occurred in all treatments, thereby not allowing a clear conclusion on the best male:female ratio.

Carga de trabalho de enfermagem e infecções relacionadas à assistência à saúde na unidade de terapia intensiva

In recent decades, the search for quality care has been widely discussed by the institutions and health professionals. In this context, it is the nurse coordinator of the process of providing nursing staff, reflecting the commitment to quality of care. In this process, it is the appearance of Infections Related to health care and its potential association with the workload in nursing as a valuable indicator of quality of care. Thus, this research contributes to studies to characterize the demand of nursing work to promote a safe healthcare practice. This study aimed to identify the association of nursing workload with the number of cases of Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia, urinary tract infection and central venous catheter infection in the intensive care unit. This is a quantitative research approach, descriptive, cross-sectional and prospective, held at Unimed Hospital in Natal-RN. The study population consisted of all patients treated in the Intensive Care Unit, Hospital for a period of 90 consecutive days in 2011. The convenience sample was compostapelos patients admitted to the ICU during the period of data collection, a total sample of 286 patients. To perform the data analysis software were used: Statistica 6.0, SPPS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences) version 17.0 (2004) and Excel 2007. In the descriptive analysis, we used Measures of Central Tendency and Measures of Dispersion or Variability and the use of nonparametric tests. Of the 286 patients, 88 were from the ICU and 198 ICU II II. Males predominated in the ICU I (51.1%) and female ICU II (57.6%) patients in the ICU I were aged 61-80 years (39.8%) followed by greater than 80 years (39.8%). In the ICU II, most of the patients were aged 61-80 years (38.9%) and then from 41 to 60 years (24.2%). In relation to the class of TISS inlet predominant class II in the two ICUs (59.1%), followed by Class III also in the two units (34.6%). Most patients (70.6%) out of the ICUs belonging to class II TISS. In the ICU I, the average number of forms of the TISS 28 was 6, has in ICU II this value drops to 3.2 forms. The overall mean was 19.9 TISS points in ICU patients I and ICU II.the 17 points in the average hours required to provide adequate nursing care to patients in the ICU I found that is 10 , 7 hours, and the ICU II 9.2 hours. It was found that the time provided by the nursing staff were higher in ICU II, with an average of 19 hours available for nurses in this sector. In the ICU I, which showed higher need of available hours, it was found that the mean value of 12.7 available hours. It was found that only 2.4% of patients had these units Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia, 1.0% were infected central venous catheter and 1.4% of patients had urinary tract infection. Infection associated with health care occurs, on average, on the tenth day of hospitalization. In the ICU II, this average value extends to the twelfth day with an excess of 2.7 hours of nursing care while in ICU I value decays to the ninth day of hospitalization with a deficiency of 12-hour assistance. It is concluded that patients generally showed a need for classification of semi-intensive care and has been assisted in their need to load. As for his association with the Related Infections Health will assist this analysis could not be performed due to the small number of notifications in this period. It is suggested further study how other factors related to infections me a longer period of analysis

Integridade tissular de pacientes com úlceras venosas: um estudo baseado na Classificação dos Resultados de Enfermagem

The venous ulcer is an epidemiological problem of high prevalence, causing disability and dependence. Assess the tissue impairment level of patients with venous lesions, within a nursing referential, is relevant for the implementation of a directed assistance to specific clientele. Thus, this work aims to characterize the health status regarding the integrity the lower limbs skin of patients with venous ulcers, according to the of tissue integrity outcome indicators from the Nursing Outcomes Classification. A cross-sectional study conducted in a university hospital in Natal - Rio Grande do Norte. The sample consisted of 50 participants, selected through consecutive sampling. Data collection occurred through a interview and physical examination form and a operational definitions tool for indicators of the nursing Tissue Integrity outcome directed to patients with venous ulcer, applied from February to June 2012. Data analysis was done by descriptive statistics and nonparametric tests (Spearman, Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests). The project was approved by the Research Ethics Committee with protocol 608/11 and Presentation Certificate to Ethical Consideration No. 0038.0.294.000-11. The results were presented using three scientific articles derivatives of research. It was found that the indicators show moderate impairment, light and not impaired, as the median. The respondents had an average of 59.72 years, 66% female, 50% were retired, 60% with a partner, 44% had arterial hypertension, 26% allergies, 20% diabetes mellitus, 96% were sedentary, 14% drank alcohol and 6% were smokers. There was a statistically significant correlation of low intensity between age and hydration (p=0.032; rs=-0.304) and skin desquamation (p=0.026; rs=-0.316), family income and necrosis (p=0.012; rs=-0.353); Ankle Brachial Index and tissue perfusion (p=0,044; rs=-0,329); Diabetes Mellitus and texture (p=0.015) and tissue perfusion (p=0.026); allergy and texture (p=0.034), physical activity and hydration (p=0.034), smoking and thickness (p=0.018), and alcohol consumption and exudate (p=0.045). We conclude that the patients had light to moderate impairment, indicating a good state of health on the integrity of the skin of the lower limbs, according to the indicators of the outcome of tissue integrity Classification Nursing Outcomes valued in the present study. It is believed that the evaluation of impairment tissue using a self-nursing system and its relation with socioeconomic, clinical and risk factors are unique tools in the care planning and in the wound healing

Evaluation of an average numerator relationship matrix model and a Bayesian hierarchical model for growth traits in Nellore cattle with uncertain paternity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Aplicação de sistemas multi-classificadores no diagnóstico de falhas em motores de indução trifásicos

Equipment maintenance is the major cost factor in industrial plants, it is very important the development of fault predict techniques. Three-phase induction motors are key electrical equipments used in industrial applications mainly because presents low cost and large robustness, however, it isn t protected from other fault types such as shorted winding and broken bars. Several acquisition ways, processing and signal analysis are applied to improve its diagnosis. More efficient techniques use current sensors and its signature analysis. In this dissertation, starting of these sensors, it is to make signal analysis through Park s vector that provides a good visualization capability. Faults data acquisition is an arduous task; in this way, it is developed a methodology for data base construction. Park s transformer is applied into stationary reference for machine modeling of the machine s differential equations solution. Faults detection needs a detailed analysis of variables and its influences that becomes the diagnosis more complex. The tasks of pattern recognition allow that systems are automatically generated, based in patterns and data concepts, in the majority cases undetectable for specialists, helping decision tasks. Classifiers algorithms with diverse learning paradigms: k-Neighborhood, Neural Networks, Decision Trees and Naïves Bayes are used to patterns recognition of machines faults. Multi-classifier systems are used to improve classification errors. It inspected the algorithms homogeneous: Bagging and Boosting and heterogeneous: Vote, Stacking and Stacking C. Results present the effectiveness of constructed model to faults modeling, such as the possibility of using multi-classifiers algorithm on faults classification