A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

Abstract We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.

Long term individual load forecast under different electrical vehicles uptake scenarios

More and more households are purchasing electric vehicles (EVs), and this will continue as we move towards a low carbon future. There are various projections as to the rate of EV uptake, but all predict an increase over the next ten years. Charging these EVs will produce one of the biggest loads on the low voltage network. To manage the network, we must not only take into account the number of EVs taken up, but where on the network they are charging, and at what time. To simulate the impact on the network from high, medium and low EV uptake (as outlined by the UK government), we present an agent-based model. We initialise the model to assign an EV to a household based on either random distribution or social influences - that is, a neighbour of an EV owner is more likely to also purchase an EV. Additionally, we examine the effect of peak behaviour on the network when charging is at day-time, night-time, or a mix of both. The model is implemented on a neighbourhood in south-east England using smart meter data (half hourly electricity readings) and real life charging patterns from an EV trial. Our results indicate that social influence can increase the peak demand on a local level (street or feeder), meaning that medium EV uptake can create higher peak demand than currently expected.

Characterisation of dystrophin in carriers of Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Dystrophin, the protein product of the Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) gene, was studied in needle biopsy samples taken from the quadriceps muscle of 15 asymptomatic carriers of DMD (13 adults and 2 young girls) and one symptomatic adult carrier. Antibodies to N- and C-terminal regions of dystrophin were used for both Western blot analysis and immunocytochemistry and a monoclonal antibody to beta-spectrin used to assess membrane integrity. All asymptomatic adult carriers showed some abnormality in dystrophin immunostaining but very few negative fibres were present. A clear mosaic of dystrophin positive and negative fibres was seen only in the adult symptomatic carrier and the two young girls. On a Western blot, all carriers studied had dystrophin of normal molecular weight, but most had reduced abundance. In adult carriers, the amount of dystrophin relative to normal controls varied, but it was unrelated to age, serum creatine kinase (CK) levels or to the degree of pathology. Carriers with normal CK showed abnormalities in dystrophin expression. The dystrophin immunoblotting profile of the 2 young girls was very similar to that of their mothers, but the mosaic pattern of immunostaining was not apparent in the older carriers. In conclusion, dystrophin immunostaining and Western blot analysis of biopsy samples from asymptomatic carriers is often abnormal and they may be useful additional aids for establishing carrier status, particularly in younger girls.

Characterisation of dystrophin in fetuses at risk for Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Dystrophin, the product of the Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) gene, was studied in muscle from 16 human fetuses at risk for the disease. Eleven high risk (greater than 95% probability) and 5 low-risk (less than 25% probability) fetuses were studied with antibodies raised to different regions of the protein. All low-risk fetuses showed a similar pattern to that of normal fetuses of a comparable age: using Western blot analysis, a protein was detected of similar size and abundance to that of normal fetuses (i.e. smaller molecular weight than that of adult muscle); immunocytochemistry showed uniform sarcolemmal staining in fetuses older than 18 weeks gestation and differential staining of myotubes at different stages of development (distinguished by size) in younger fetuses (less than 15 weeks gestation). In contrast, Western blot analysis of high-risk fetuses detected low levels of dystrophin in 4 cases; 7 fetuses had no detectable protein. Immunocytochemistry with some dystrophin antibodies showed weak staining of the sarcolemma and around central nuclei in younger fetuses; in older fetuses there was little sarcolemmal staining with any antibody other than occasional positive fibres. These results indicate that careful study of dystrophin in fetuses at risk for DMD can be used to establish the clinical phenotype and provide additional information for future family counselling.

Dystrophin analysis using a panel of anti-dystrophin antibodies in Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophy.

Dystrophin, the protein product of the Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) gene, was studied in 19 patients with Xp21 disorders and in 25 individuals with non-Xp21 muscular dystrophy. Antibodies raised to seven different regions spanning most of the protein were used for immunocytochemistry. In all patients specific dystrophin staining anomalies were detected and correlated with clinical severity and also gene deletion. In patients with Becker muscular dystrophy (BMD) the anomalies detected ranged from inter- and intra-fibre variation in labelling intensity with the same antibody or several antibodies to general reduction in staining and discontinuous staining. In vitro evidence of abnormal dystrophin breakdown was observed reanalysing the muscle of patients, with BMD and not that of non-Xp21 dystrophies, after it has been stored for several months. A number of patients with DMD showed some staining but this did not represent a diagnostic problem. Based on the data presented, it was concluded that immunocytochemistry is a powerful technique in the prognostic diagnosis of Xp21 muscular dystrophies.

Manifesting carriers of Xp21 muscular dystrophy; lack of correlation between dystrophin expression and clinical weakness.

Ten females presenting with muscle weakness and a raised serum creatine kinase revealed abnormalities in the expression of dystrophin in their muscle biopsies and were diagnosed as manifesting carriers of Xp21 Duchenne/Becker muscular dystrophy. Seven cases, aged 3-22 yr at the time of biopsy, had a variable proportion of dystrophin-deficient fibres and an abnormal expression on immunoblot. These were confidently diagnosed as manifesting carriers. Results in the remaining three cases, aged 8-10 yr, were less clear-cut. Dystrophin expression on immunoblots was slightly reduced and some unevenness and reduction of immunolabelling was seen on sections, but dystrophin-deficient fibres were not a feature of these cases. The weakness in the ten carriers ranged from minimal to severe and there was no correlation between the degree of weakness and the number of dystrophin-deficient fibres. Two minimally weak girls had a high proportion of dystrophin-deficient fibres. Our results show that analysis of dystrophin expression is useful for the differential diagnosis of carriers of Xp21 dystrophy and autosomal muscular dystrophy, but that dystrophin expression does not correlate directly with the degree of clinical weakness.

Muscular weakness in the mdx mouse.

mdx mice are believed to be virtually free from neuromuscular symptoms, despite the presence of a degenerative/regenerative process that involves all skeletal muscles. We analyzed both the spontaneous motility and treadmill motor activity of mdx mice aged 15 days to 6 months. Our results indicate that there is an early period, between the end of the second and up to the fifth week of life, when mdx mice experience extreme weakness. After this critical period, both spontaneous motility and endurance of mdx mice, although lower than those of controls, do not show statistically significant differences up to 6 months of age. We also carried out a detailed histological analysis of proximal and distal muscle groups in mdx mice during this early critical motility period. The occurrence of extensive necrosis followed by regeneration and involving proximal muscles before distal ones was documented in mice as young as 16-17 days of age and reached a peak at day 18. We conclude that dystrophin deficiency induces muscle degeneration and significant weakness in mdx mice, but only in an early period. Later on, during development, mdx mice adapt to the lack of this protein and do not show detectable in vivo functional muscle impairment up to 6 months of age.

Digital image correlation analysis of the load transfer by implant-supported restorations

This study compared splinted and non-splinted implant-supported prosthesis with and without a distal proximal contact using a digital image correlation method. An epoxy resin model was made with acrylic resin replicas of a mandibular first premolar and second molar and with threaded implants replacing the second premolar and first molar. Splinted and non-splinted metal-ceramic screw-retained crowns were fabricated and loaded with and without the presence of the second molar. A single-camera measuring system was used to record the in-plane deformation on the model surface at a frequency of 1.0 Hz under a load from 0 to 250 N. The images were then analyzed with specialist software to determine the direct (horizontal) and shear strains along the model. Not splinting the crowns resulted in higher stress transfer to the supporting implants when the second molar replica was absent. The presence of a second molar and an effective interproximal contact contributed to lower stress transfer to the supporting structures even for non-splinted restorations. Shear strains were higher in the region between the molars when the second molar was absent, regardless of splinting. The opposite was found for the region between the implants, which had higher shear strain values when the second molar was present. When an effective distal contact is absent, non-splinted implant-supported restorations introduce higher direct strains to the supporting structures under loading. Shear strains appear to be dependent also on the region within the model, with different regions showing different trends in strain changes in the absence of an effective distal contact. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DC traction load flow including AC distribution network

In the first part some information and characterisation about an AC distribution network that feeds traction substations and their possible influences on the DC traction load flow are presented. Those influences are investigated and mathematically modelled. To corroborate the mathematical model, an example is presented and their results are confronted with real measurements.

Transcriptional regulation differs in affected facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy patients compared to asymptomatic related carriers

Facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD) is a progressive muscle disorder that has been associated with a contraction of 3.3-kb repeats on chromosome 4q35. FSHD is characterized by a wide clinical inter- and intrafamilial variability, ranging from wheelchair-bound patients to asymptomatic carriers. Our study is unique in comparing the gene expression profiles from related affected, asymptomatic carrier, and control individuals. Our results suggest that the expression of genes on chromosome 4q is altered in affected and asymptomatic individuals. Remarkably, the changes seen in asymptomatic samples are largely in products of genes encoding several chemokines, whereas the changes seen in affected samples are largely in genes governing the synthesis of GPI-linked proteins and histone acetylation. Besides this, the affected patient and related asymptomatic carrier share the 4qA161 haplotype. Thus, these polymorphisms by themselves do not explain the pathogenicity of the contracted allele. Interestingly, our results also suggest that the miRNAs might mediate the regulatory network in FSHD. Together, our results support the previous evidence that FSHD may be caused by transcriptional dysregulation of multiple genes, in cis and in trans, and suggest some factors potentially important for FSHD pathogenesis. The study of the gene expression profiles from asymptomatic carriers and related affected patients is a unique approach to try to enhance our understanding of the missing link between the contraction in D4Z4 repeats and muscle disease, while minimizing the effects of differences resulting from genetic background.

Variety matters: adaptive genetic diversity and parasite load in two mouse opossums from the Brazilian Atlantic forest

The adaptive potential of a species to a changing environment and in disease defence is primarily based on genetic variation. Immune genes, such as genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), may thereby be of particular importance. In marsupials, however, there is very little knowledge about natural levels and functional importance of MHC polymorphism, despite their key role in the mammalian evolution. In a previous study, we discovered remarkable differences in the MHC class II diversity between two species of mouse opossums (Gracilinanus microtarsus, Marmosops incanus) from the Brazilian Atlantic forest, which is one of the most endangered hotspots for biodiversity conservation. Since the main forces in generating MHC diversity are assumed to be pathogens, we investigated in this study gastrointestinal parasite burden and functional associations between the individual MHC constitution and parasite load. We tested two contrasting scenarios, which might explain differences in MHC diversity between species. We predicted that a species with low MHC diversity would either be under relaxed selection pressure by low parasite diversity (`Evolutionary equilibrium` scenario), or there was a recent loss in MHC diversity leading to a lack of resistance alleles and increased parasite burden (`Unbalanced situation` scenario). In both species it became apparent that the MHC class II is functionally important in defence against gastrointestinal helminths, which was shown here for the first time in marsupials. On the population level, parasite diversity did not markedly differ between the two host species. However, we did observe considerable differences in the individual parasite load (parasite prevalence and infection intensity): while M. incanus revealed low MHC DAB diversity and high parasite load, G. microtarsus showed a tenfold higher population wide MHC DAB diversity and lower parasite burden. These results support the second scenario of an unbalanced situation.

Diagnosis of limb-girdle muscular dystrophy 2A by immunohistochemical techniques

The Western blot technique is currently the standard detection method for suspected limb girdle muscular dystrophy (LGMD) 2A (calpainopathy). This is the first report in the English literature of the successful application of immunohistochemical techniques to support a diagnosis of LGMD 2A. This approach is straightforward and appears to be reasonably specific. We propose that immunohistochemical methods should be re-evaluated for the screening of undiagnosed patients with suspected LGMD 2A.

Inflammation and adipose tissue: effects of progressive load training in rats

Introduction: Cytokines (IL-6, IL-10 and TNF-alpha) are increased after exhaustive exercise in the rat retroperitoneal (RPAT) and mesenteric adipose tissue (MEAT) pads. On the other hand, these cytokines show decreased expression in these depots in response to a chronic exercise protocol. However, the effect of exercise with overload combined with a short recovery period on pro-and anti-inflammatory cytokine expression is unknown. In the present study, we investigated the regulation of cytokine production in the adipose tissue of rats after an overtraining-inducing exercise protocol. Methods: Male Wistar rats were divided into four groups: Control (C), Trained (Tr), Overtrained (OT) and recovered overtrained (R). Cytokines (IL-6, TNF-alpha and IL-10) levels and Toll Like Receptor 4 (TLR4), Nuclear Factor kBBp65 (NF-kBp65), Hormone Sensitive Lipase (HSL) and, Perilipin protein expression were assessed in the adipose tissue. Furthermore, we analysed plasma lipid profile, insulin, testosterone, corticosterone and endotoxin levels, and liver triacylglycerol, cytokine content, as well as apolipoprotein B (apoB) and TLR4 expression in the liver. Results: OT and R groups exhibited reduced performance accompanied by lower testosterone and increased corticosterone and endotoxin levels when compared with the control and trained groups. IL-6 and IL-10 protein levels were increased in the adipose tissue of the group allowed to recover, in comparison with all the other studied groups. TLR-4 and NF-kBp65 were increased in this same group when compared with both control and trained groups. The protein expression of HSL was increased and that of Perilipin, decreased in the adipose in R in relation to the control. In addition, we found increased liver and serum TAG, along with reduced apoB protein expression and IL-6 and IL-10 levels in the of R in relation to the control and trained groups. Conclusion: In conclusion, we have shown that increases in pro-inflammatory cytokines in the adipose tissue after an overtraining protocol may be mediated via TLR-4 and NF-kBp65 signalling, leading to an inflammatory state in this tissue.