Validation of Logistic Regression Models for Landslide Susceptibility Maps

A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.

Business Models in OER, a Contingency Approach

We will present an analysis of data from a literature review and semi-structured interviews with experts on OER, to identify different aspects of OER business models and to establish how the success of the OER initiatives is measured. The results collected thus far show that two different business models for OER initiatives exist, but no data on their success or failure is published. We propose a framework for measuring success of OER initiatives.

Predicting random level and seasonality of hotel prices. A structural equation growth curve approach

This article examines the effect on price of different characteristics of holiday hotels in the sun-and-beach segment, under the hedonic function perspective. Monthly prices of the majority of hotels in the Spanish continental Mediterranean coast are gathered from May to October 1999 from the tour operator catalogues. Hedonic functions are specified as random-effect models and parametrized as structural equation models with two latent variables, a random peak season price and a random width of seasonal fluctuations. Characteristics of the hotel and the region where they are located are used as predictors of both latent variables. Besides hotel category, region, distance to the beach, availability of parking place and room equipment have an effect on peak price and also on seasonality. 3- star hotels have the highest seasonality and hotels located in the southern regions the lowest, which could be explained by a warmer climate in autumn

Container productivity, daily survival rates and dispersal of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in a high income dengue epidemic neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro: presumed influence of differential urban structure on mosquito biology

Different urban structures might affect the life history parameters of Aedes aegypti and, consequently, dengue transmission. Container productivity, probability of daily survival (PDS) and dispersal rates were estimated for mosquito populations in a high income neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro. Results were contrasted with those previously found in a suburban district, as well as those recorded in a slum. After inspecting 1,041 premises, domestic drains and discarded plastic pots were identified as the most productive containers, collectively holding up to 80% of the total pupae. In addition, three cohorts of dust-marked Ae. aegypti females were released and recaptured daily using BGS-Traps, sticky ovitraps and backpack aspirators in 50 randomly selected houses; recapture rate ranged from 5-12.2% within cohorts. PDS was determined by two models and ranged from 0.607-0.704 (exponential model) and 0.659-0.721 (non-linear model), respectively. Mean distance travelled varied from 57-122 m, with a maximum dispersal of 263 m. Overall, lower infestation indexes and adult female survival were observed in the high income neighbourhood, suggesting a lower dengue transmission risk in comparison to the suburban area and the slum. Since results show that urban structure can influence mosquito biology, specific control strategies might be used in order to achieve cost-effective Ae. aegypti control.

The immunomodulator PSK induces in vitro cytotoxic activity in tumour cell linesvia arrest of cell cycle and induction of apoptosis

BACKGROUND Protein-bound polysaccharide (PSK) is derived from the CM-101 strain of the fungus Coriolus versicolor and has shown anticancer activity in vitro and in in vivo experimental models and human cancers. Several randomized clinical trials have demonstrated that PSK has great potential in adjuvant cancer therapy, with positive results in the adjuvant treatment of gastric, esophageal, colorectal, breast and lung cancers. These studies have suggested the efficacy of PSK as an immunomodulator of biological responses. The precise molecular mechanisms responsible for its biological activity have yet to be fully elucidated. METHODS The in vitro cytotoxic anti-tumour activity of PSK has been evaluated in various tumour cell lines derived from leukaemias, melanomas, fibrosarcomas and cervix, lung, pancreas and gastric cancers. Tumour cell proliferation in vitro was measured by BrdU incorporation and viable cell count. Effect of PSK on human peripheral blood lymphocyte (PBL) proliferation in vitro was also analyzed. Studies of cell cycle and apoptosis were performed in PSK-treated cells. RESULTS PSK showed in vitro inhibition of tumour cell proliferation as measured by BrdU incorporation and viable cell count. The inhibition ranged from 22 to 84%. Inhibition mechanisms were identified as cell cycle arrest, with cell accumulation in G0/G1 phase and increase in apoptosis and caspase-3 expression. These results indicate that PSK has a direct cytotoxic activity in vitro, inhibiting tumour cell proliferation. In contrast, PSK shows a synergistic effect with IL-2 that increases PBL proliferation. CONCLUSION These results indicate that PSK has cytotoxic activity in vitro on tumour cell lines. This new cytotoxic activity of PSK on tumour cells is independent of its previously described immunomodulatory activity on NK cells.

Chagas heart disease: pathophysiologic mechanisms, prognostic factors and risk stratification

Chagas heart disease (CHD) results from infection with the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi and is the leading cause of infectious myocarditis worldwide. It poses a substantial public health burden due to high morbidity and mortality. CHD is also the most serious and frequent manifestation of chronic Chagas disease and appears in 20-40% of infected individuals between 10-30 years after the original acute infection. In recent decades, numerous clinical and experimental investigations have shown that a low-grade but incessant parasitism, along with an accompanying immunological response [either parasite-driven (most likely) or autoimmune-mediated], plays an important role in producing myocardial damage in CHD. At the same time, primary neuronal damage and microvascular dysfunction have been described as ancillary pathogenic mechanisms. Conduction system disturbances, atrial and ventricular arrhythmias, congestive heart failure, systemic and pulmonary thromboembolism and sudden cardiac death are the most common clinical manifestations of chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy. Management of CHD aims to relieve symptoms, identify markers of unfavourable prognosis and treat those individuals at increased risk of disease progression or death. This article reviews the pathophysiology of myocardial damage, discusses the value of current risk stratification models and proposes an algorithm to guide mortality risk assessment and therapeutic decision-making in patients with CHD.

Current status and perspectives of cell therapy in Chagas disease

One century after its discovery, Chagas disease, caused by the protozoan, Trypanosoma cruzi, remains a major health problem in Latin America. Mortality and morbidity are mainly due to chronic processes that lead to dysfunction of the cardiac and digestive systems. About one third of the chronic chagasic individuals have or will develop the symptomatic forms of the disease, with cardiomyopathy being the most common chronic form. This is a progressively debilitating disease for which there are no currently available effective treatments other than heart transplantation. Like in other cardiac diseases, tissue engineering and cell therapy have been investigated in the past few years as a means of recovering the heart function lost as a consequence of chronic damage caused by the immune-mediated pathogenic mechanisms elicited in individuals with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy. Here we review the studies of cell therapy in animal models and patients with chronic Chagas disease and the perspectives of the recovery of the heart function lost due to infection with T. cruzi.

The effects of catechin rich teas and caffeine on energy expenditure and fat oxidation: a meta-analysis.

Different outcomes of the effect of catechin-caffeine mixtures and caffeine-only supplementation on energy expenditure and fat oxidation have been reported in short-term studies. Therefore, a meta-analysis was conducted to elucidate whether catechin-caffeine mixtures and caffeine-only supplementation indeed increase thermogenesis and fat oxidation. First, English-language studies measuring daily energy expenditure and fat oxidation by means of respiration chambers after catechin-caffeine mixtures and caffeine-only supplementation were identified through PubMed. Six articles encompassing a total of 18 different conditions fitted the inclusion criteria. Second, results were aggregated using random/mixed-effects models and expressed in terms of the mean difference in 24 h energy expenditure and fat oxidation between the treatment and placebo conditions. Finally, the influence of moderators such as BMI and dosage on the results was examined as well. The catechin-caffeine mixtures and caffeine-only supplementation increased energy expenditure significantly over 24 h (428.0 kJ (4.7%); P < 0.001 and 429.1 kJ (4.8%); P < 0.001, respectively). However, 24 h fat oxidation was only increased by catechin-caffeine mixtures (12.2 g (16.0%); P < 0.02 and 9.5 g (12.4%); P = 0.11, respectively). A dose-response effect on 24 h energy expenditure and fat oxidation occurred with a mean increase of 0.53 kJ mg(-1) (P < 0.01) and 0.02 g mg(-1) (P < 0.05) for catechin-caffeine mixtures and 0.44 kJ mg(-1) (P < 0.001) and 0.01 g mg(-1) (P < 0.05) for caffeine-only. In conclusion, catechin-caffeine mixtures or a caffeine-only supplementation stimulates daily energy expenditure dose-dependently by 0.4-0.5 kJ mg(-1) administered. Compared with placebo, daily fat-oxidation was only significantly increased after catechin-caffeine mixtures ingestion.

Moderating effects of management control systems and innovation on performance. Simple methods for correcting the effects of measurement error for interaction effects in small samples

In the accounting literature, interaction or moderating effects are usually assessed by means of OLS regression and summated rating scales are constructed to reduce measurement error bias. Structural equation models and two-stage least squares regression could be used to completely eliminate this bias, but large samples are needed. Partial Least Squares are appropriate for small samples but do not correct measurement error bias. In this article, disattenuated regression is discussed as a small sample alternative and is illustrated on data of Bisbe and Otley (in press) that examine the interaction effect of innovation and style of use of budgets on performance. Sizeable differences emerge between OLS and disattenuated regression

Ulcerative colitis impairs the acylethanolamide-based anti-inflammatory system reversal by 5-aminosalicylic acid and glucocorticoids

Studies in animal models and humans suggest anti-inflammatory roles on the N acylethanolamide (NAE)-peroxisome proliferators activated receptor alpha (PPARα) system in inflammatory bowel diseases. However, the presence and function of NAE-PPARα signaling system in the ulcerative colitis (UC) of humans remain unknown as well as its response to active anti-inflammatory therapies such as 5-aminosalicylic acid (5-ASA) and glucocorticoids. Expression of PPARα receptor and PPARα ligands-biosynthetic (NAPE-PLD) and -degrading (FAAH and NAAA) enzymes were analyzed in untreated active and 5-ASA/glucocorticoids/immunomodulators-treated quiescent UC patients compared to healthy human colonic tissue by RT-PCR and immunohistochemical analyses. PPARα, NAAA, NAPE-PLD and FAAH showed differential distributions in the colonic epithelium, lamina propria, smooth muscle and enteric plexus. Gene expression analysis indicated a decrease of PPARα, PPARγ and NAAA, and an increase of FAAH and iNOS in the active colitis mucosa. Immunohistochemical expression in active colitis epithelium confirmed a PPARα decrease, but showed a sharp NAAA increase and a NAPE-PLD decrease, which were partially restored to control levels after treatment. We also characterized the immune cells of the UC mucosa infiltrate. We detected a decreased number of NAAA-positive and an increased number of FAAH-positive immune cells in active UC, which were partially restored to control levels after treatment. NAE-PPARα signaling system is impaired during active UC and 5-ASA/glucocorticoids treatment restored its normal expression. Since 5-ASA actions may work through PPARα and glucocorticoids through NAE-producing/degrading enzymes, the use of PPARα agonists or FAAH/NAAA blockers that increases endogenous PPARα ligands may yield similar therapeutics advantages.

Do socioeconomic factors shape weight and obesity trajectories over the transition from midlife to old age? Results from the French GAZEL cohort study

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a contemporary epidemic that does not affect all age groups and sections of society equally. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to examine socioeconomic differences in trajectories of body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)) and obesity between the ages of 45 and 65 y. DESIGN: A total of 13,297 men and 4532 women from the French GAZEL (Gaz de France Electricité de France) cohort study reported their height in 1990 and their weight annually over the subsequent 18 y. Changes in BMI and obesity between ages 45 and 49 y, 50 and 54 y, 55 and 59 y, and 60 and 65 y as a function of education and occupational position (at age 35 y) were modeled by using linear mixed models and generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: BMI and obesity rates increased between the ages of 45 and 65 y. In men, BMI was higher in unskilled workers than in managers at age 45 y; this difference in BMI increased from 0.82 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.99) at 45 y to 1.06 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.27) at 65 y. Men with a primary school education compared with those with a high school degree at age 45 y had a 0.75 (95% CI: 0.51, 1.00) higher BMI, and this difference increased to 1.32 (95% CI: 1.03,1.62) at age 65 y. Obesity rates were 3.35% and 7.68% at age 45 y and 9.52% and 18.10% at age 65 y in managers and unskilled workers, respectively; the difference in obesity increased by 4.25% (95% CI: 1.87, 6.52). A similar trend was observed in women. Conclusions: Weight continues to increase in the transition between midlife and old age; this increase is greater in lower socioeconomic groups.

Self-reported alcohol consumption and its association with adherence and outcome of antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption leading to morbidity and mortality affects HIV-infected individuals. Here, we aimed to study self-reported alcohol consumption and to determine its association with adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV surrogate markers. METHODS: Cross-sectional data on daily alcohol consumption from August 2005 to August 2007 were analysed and categorized according to the World Health Organization definition (light, moderate or severe health risk). Multivariate logistic regression models and Pearson's chi(2) statistics were used to test the influence of alcohol use on endpoints. RESULTS: Of 6,323 individuals, 52.3% consumed alcohol less than once a week in the past 6 months. Alcohol intake was deemed light in 39.9%, moderate in 5.0% and severe in 2.8%. Higher alcohol consumption was significantly associated with older age, less education, injection drug use, being in a drug maintenance programme, psychiatric treatment, hepatitis C virus coinfection and with a longer time since diagnosis of HIV. Lower alcohol consumption was found in males, non-Caucasians, individuals currently on ART and those with more ART experience. In patients on ART (n=4,519), missed doses and alcohol consumption were positively correlated (P<0.001). Severe alcohol consumers, who were pretreated with ART, were more often off treatment despite having CD4+ T-cell count <200 cells/microl; however, severe alcohol consumption per se did not delay starting ART. In treated individuals, alcohol consumption was not associated with worse HIV surrogate markers. CONCLUSIONS: Higher alcohol consumption in HIV-infected individuals was associated with several psychosocial and demographic factors, non-adherence to ART and, in pretreated individuals, being off treatment despite low CD4+ T-cell counts.

Desenvolupament d'algorismes biològicament inspirats basats en Support Vector Machines

L'objectiu d'aquest projecte ha estat el desenvolupament d'algorismes biològicament inspirats per a l'olfacció artificial. Per a assolir-lo ens hem basat en el paradigma de les màquines amb suport vectorial. Hem construit algoritmes que imitaven els processos computacionals dels diferents sistemes que formen el sistema olfactiu dels insectes, especialment de la llagosta Schistocerca gregaria. Ens hem centrat en el lòbuls de les antenes, i en el cos fungiforme. El primer està considerat un dispositiu de codificació de les olors, que a partir de la resposta temporal dels receptors olfactius a les antenes genera un patró d'activació espaial i temporal. Quant al cos fungiforme es considera que la seva funció és la d'una memòria per als olors, així com un centre per a la integració multi-sensorial. El primer pas ha estat la construcció de models detallats dels dos sistemes. A continuació, hem utilitzat aquests models per a processar diferents tipus de senyals amb l'objectiu de abstraure els principis computacionals subjacents. Finalment, hem avaluat les capacitats d'aquests models abstractes, i els hem utilitzat per al processat de dades provinents de sensors de gasos. Els resultats mostren que el models abstractes tenen millor comportament front el soroll i més capacitat d'emmagatzematge de records que altres models més clàssics, com ara les memòries associatives de Hopfield o fins i tot en determinades circumstàncies que les mateixes Support Vector Machines.

The effect of homozygous deletion of the BBOX1 and Fibin genes on carnitine level and acyl carnitine profile.

BACKGROUND: Carnitine is a key molecule in energy metabolism that helps transport activated fatty acids into the mitochondria. Its homeostasis is achieved through oral intake, renal reabsorption and de novo biosynthesis. Unlike dietary intake and renal reabsorption, the importance of de novo biosynthesis pathway in carnitine homeostasis remains unclear, due to lack of animal models and description of a single patient defective in this pathway. CASE PRESENTATION: We identified by array comparative genomic hybridization a 42 months-old girl homozygote for a 221 Kb interstitial deletions at 11p14.2, that overlaps the genes encoding Fibin and butyrobetaine-gamma 2-oxoglutarate dioxygenase 1 (BBOX1), an enzyme essential for the biosynthesis of carnitine de novo. She presented microcephaly, speech delay, growth retardation and minor facial anomalies. The levels of almost all evaluated metabolites were normal. Her serum level of free carnitine was at the lower limit of the reference range, while her acylcarnitine to free carnitine ratio was normal. CONCLUSIONS: We present an individual with a completely defective carnitine de novo biosynthesis. This condition results in mildly decreased free carnitine level, but not in clinical manifestations characteristic of carnitine deficiency disorders, suggesting that dietary carnitine intake and renal reabsorption are sufficient to carnitine homeostasis. Our results also demonstrate that haploinsufficiency of BBOX1 and/or Fibin is not associated with Primrose syndrome as previously suggested.

Family history of cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are well-recognized risk factors for head and neck cancer (HNC). Evidence suggests that genetic predisposition may also play a role. Only a few epidemiologic studies, however, have considered the relation between HNC risk and family history of HNC and other cancers. We pooled individual-level data across 12 case-control studies including 8,967 HNC cases and 13,627 controls. We obtained pooled odds ratios (OR) using fixed and random effect models and adjusting for potential confounding factors. All statistical tests were two-sided. A family history of HNC in first-degree relatives increased the risk of HNC (OR=1.7, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.2-2.3). The risk was higher when the affected relative was a sibling (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.6-3.1) rather than a parent (OR=1.5, 95% CI 1.1-1.8) and for more distal HNC anatomic sites (hypopharynx and larynx). The risk was also higher, or limited to, in subjects exposed to tobacco. The OR rose to 7.2 (95% CI 5.5-9.5) among subjects with family history, who were alcohol and tobacco users. A weak but significant association (OR=1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2) emerged for family history of other tobacco-related neoplasms, particularly with laryngeal cancer (OR=1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5). No association was observed for family history of nontobacco-related neoplasms and the risk of HNC (OR=1.0, 95% CI 0.9-1.1). Familial factors play a role in the etiology of HNC. In both subjects with and without family history of HNC, avoidance of tobacco and alcohol exposure may be the best way to avoid HNC.