The 1452 or 1453 A.D. Kuwae Eruption Signal Derived from Multiple Ice Core Records: Greatest Volcanic Sulfate Event of the Past 700 Years

We combined 33 ice core records, 13 from the Northern Hemisphere and 20 from the Southern Hemisphere, to determine the timing and magnitude of the great Kuwae eruption in the mid-15th century. We extracted volcanic deposition signals by applying a high-pass loess filter to the time series and examining peaks that exceed twice the 31 year running median absolute deviation. By accounting for the dating uncertainties associated with each record, these ice core records together reveal a large volcanogenic acid deposition event during 1453 - 1457 A. D. The results suggest only one major stratospheric injection from the Kuwae eruption and confirm previous findings that the Kuwae eruption took place in late 1452 or early 1453, which may serve as a reference to evaluate and improve the dating of ice core records. The average total sulfate deposition from the Kuwae eruption was 93 kg SO4/km(2) in Antarctica and 25 kg SO4/km(2) in Greenland. The deposition in Greenland was probably underestimated since it was the average value of only two northern Greenland sites with very low accumulation rates. After taking the spatial variation into consideration, the average Kuwae deposition in Greenland was estimated to be 45 kg SO4/km(2). By applying the same technique to the other major eruptions of the past 700 years our result suggests that the Kuwae eruption was the largest stratospheric sulfate event of that period, probably surpassing the total sulfate deposition of the Tambora eruption of 1815, which produced 59 kg SO4/km(2) in Antarctica and 50 kg SO4/km(2) in Greenland.

Expression study of the atherosclerosis mouse aorta reveals significant disturbance of calcium signaling pathway

Atherosclerosis is a complex disease resulting from interactions of genetic and environmental risk factors leading to heart failure and stroke. Using an atherosclerotic mouse model (ldlr-/-, apobec1-/- designated as LDb), we performed microarray analysis to identify candidate genes and pathways, which are most perturbed in changes in the following risk factors: genetics (control C57BL/6 vs. LDb mice), shearstress (lesion-prone vs. lesion-resistant regions in LDb mice), diet (chow vs. high fat fed LDb mice) and age (2-month-old vs. 8-month old LDb mice). ^ Atherosclerotic lesion quantification and lipid profile studies were performed to assess the disease phenotype. A microarray study was performed on lesion-prone and lesion-resistant regions of each aorta. Briefly, 32 male C57BL/6 and LDb mice (n =16/each) were fed on either chow or high fat diet, sacrificed at 2- and 8-months old, and RNA isolated from the aortic lesion-prone and aortic lesion-resistant segments. Using 64 Affymetrix Murine 430 2.0 chips, we profiled differentially expressed genes with the cut off value of FDR ≤ 0.15 for t-test, and q <0.0001 for the ANOVA. The data were normalized using two normalization methods---invariant probe sets (Loess) and Quantile normalization, the statistical analysis was performed using t-tests and ANOVA, and pathway characterization was done using Pathway Express (Wayne State). The result identified the calcium signaling pathway as the most significant overrepresented pathway, followed by focal adhesion. In the calcium signaling pathway, 56 genes were found to be significantly differentially expressed out of 180 genes listed in the KEGG calcium signaling pathway. Nineteen of these genes were consistently identified by both statistical tests, 11 of which were unique to the test, and 26 were unique to the ANOVA test, using the cutoffs noted above. ^ In conclusion, this finding suggested that hypercholesterolemia drives the disease progression by altering the expression of calcium channels and regulators which subsequently results in cell differentiation, growth, adhesion, cytoskeletal change and death. Clinically, this pathway may serve as an important target for future therapeutic intervention, and thus the calcium signaling pathway may serve as an important target for future diagnostic and therapeutic intervention. ^

Assessment of the effect on statistical power of regression model misspecification by using techniques of mathematical statistics and simulation study

Objectives. This paper seeks to assess the effect on statistical power of regression model misspecification in a variety of situations. ^ Methods and results. The effect of misspecification in regression can be approximated by evaluating the correlation between the correct specification and the misspecification of the outcome variable (Harris 2010).In this paper, three misspecified models (linear, categorical and fractional polynomial) were considered. In the first section, the mathematical method of calculating the correlation between correct and misspecified models with simple mathematical forms was derived and demonstrated. In the second section, data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2007-2008) were used to examine such correlations. Our study shows that comparing to linear or categorical models, the fractional polynomial models, with the higher correlations, provided a better approximation of the true relationship, which was illustrated by LOESS regression. In the third section, we present the results of simulation studies that demonstrate overall misspecification in regression can produce marked decreases in power with small sample sizes. However, the categorical model had greatest power, ranging from 0.877 to 0.936 depending on sample size and outcome variable used. The power of fractional polynomial model was close to that of linear model, which ranged from 0.69 to 0.83, and appeared to be affected by the increased degrees of freedom of this model.^ Conclusion. Correlations between alternative model specifications can be used to provide a good approximation of the effect on statistical power of misspecification when the sample size is large. When model specifications have known simple mathematical forms, such correlations can be calculated mathematically. Actual public health data from NHANES 2007-2008 were used as examples to demonstrate the situations with unknown or complex correct model specification. Simulation of power for misspecified models confirmed the results based on correlation methods but also illustrated the effect of model degrees of freedom on power.^

Yields of Corn, Soybeans, and Alfalfa in Western Iowa: 1990 to 2011

The ISU Western Research Farm, Castana, Iowa is one of the oldest in Iowa dating to 1946. It also has a unique location in the loess hills of western Iowa. The research farm was set up to study the deep loess soils, particularly crop production and soil conservation methods. Although the work at the research farm has transitioned away from traditional plot work, yields of major crops grown at the farm, and climate data are collected each year. Crop yields are a reflection of current technologies and weather. In western Iowa, rainfall is especially critical and is often the limiting factor.

Pollen and macroremains from sediment core Aschenhütte

The Upper Pleistocene sediments of the Aschenhütte sink-hole (west of Herzberg am Harz, Lower Saxony) enable one to make interesting correlations between palynological and geological results. The sequence is composed of limnic-telmatic deposits (Eemain to Lower Weichselian) and loess with paleosoils (Weichselian). Sedimentation started during the hornbeam-dominated phase of the Eemian interglacial period and continued throughout the Eemian, the Weichselian Brörup interstadial (sensu Andersen) and parts of the preceding and the following stadial phases, the Herning and the Rederstall stadials. As opposed to most of the known Eemian sites spruce was a major tree species during the hornbeam-dominated phase of the Eemian. The vegetational development during the interstadial phase does not show a period of climatic deterioration as is the case for the Brörup interstadial when considering regions with a more demanding vegetation or regions close to the natural boundaries of the tree species concerned. Pollen or seeds of Bruckenthalia and Picea omoricoides have not been found in the Aschenhütte cores. The limnic-telmatic sediments interlock with loess-paleosoils (Eemian soil and Lower Weichselian bleaching soils) at the lake shore. They are overlaid by loess paleosoils of the Stillfried-B interstadial (Hattorf soil and Lohne soil). Lake level fluctuations were determined by means of the facies distribution and isochrones as defined by pollen analysis. A relatively high stand of the lake level existed after the end of the Eemian interglacial and during the Brörup interstadial periods. In the course of the Herning stadial period the water level dropped, whereas during the Rederstall stadial phase the lake basin was covered by sediments and therefore dried up.

Sedimentology, magnetics and chemistry on palaeolake core D100 from the Gobi Desert

The Gaxun Nur Basin in arid China is tectonically influenced by the left-lateral displacements along the Gobi-Altay and Qilian Shan shear zones, resulting in a large pull-apart basin with strong subsidence in the interior. The up to 300 m thick basin fills consist of fluvio-lacustrine fine-grained deposits mainly transported by river discharges from the Tibetan Plateau. They led to a large depositional area of more than 28,000 qkm in size with presently dry terminal lakes at the outer edges. This vast area serves as a main source for loess transport to south-eastern regions of China (Loess Plateau) caused by the variable winter monsoon. Based on geochemical and sedimentological analyses of the sediment core D100 retrieved from a deep drilling in the centre of the Gaxun Nur Basin following questions have to be answered: 1. Reconstruction of the water balance and determination of hydrological cycles during interglacial and glacial periods. 2. Reconstructing variations in lacustrine environment and aeolian activities with respect to transitional phases fro, warm to cold stages (MIS 4 to 5 and older stages). 3. Establishing a sustainable chronology for the last 250 ka.

(Table 1) Cation exchange capacity and other characteristics of soils common in Lower Saxony, Germany

The chemical and biochemical processes associated with the filtration of rainwater through soils, a step in groundwater recharge, were investigated. Under simulated climatic conditions in the laboratory, undisturbed soil columns of partly loamy sands, sandy soils and loess were run as lysimeters. A series of extraction procedures was carried out to determine solid matter in unaltered rock materials and in soil horizons. Drainage water and moisture movement in the columns were analysed and traced respectively. The behaviour of soluble humic substance was investigated by percolation and suspension experiments. The development of seepage-water in the unsaturated zone is closely associated with the soil genetic processes. Determining autonomous chemical and physical parameters are mineral composition and grain size distribution in the original unconsolidated host rock and prevailing climatic conditions. They influence biological activity and transport of solids, dissolved matter and gases in the unsaturated zone. Humic substances, either as amorphous solid matter or as soluble humic acids play a part in diverse sorption, solution and precipitation processes.

Lightness timescale for terrestrial sediments of China

The Nihewan Beds at Yangyuan reflect apparently continuous, high-resolution deposition of fluvial-lacustrine sediment in the climatically important loess deposit regions of north China. The Hutouliang section forms the upper portion of Nihewan Beds deposited during the Brunhes magnetic polarity chron. Lightness values measured on successive samples display similar variability to the aeolian flux record of oceanic sediment core V21-146 located downwind from this area in the North Pacific. The oxygen isotope timescale of core V21-146 was transferred to the lightness curve to provide a preliminary timescale allowing more detailed age control in the Hutouliang section. This timescale will provide useful assistance in dating boundary ages of the loess-soil sequence in China and interpreting regional climatic data.

(Table 1) GRACE-derived mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet 2002-2010

We re-evaluate the Greenland mass balance for the recent period using low-pass Independent Component Analysis (ICA) post-processing of the Level-2 GRACE data (2002-2010) from different official providers (UTCSR, JPL, GFZ) and confirm the present important ice mass loss in the range of -70 and -90 Gt/y of this ice sheet, due to negative contributions of the glaciers on the east coast. We highlight the high interannual variability of mass variations of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), especially the recent deceleration of ice loss in 2009-2010, once seasonal cycles are robustly removed by Seasonal Trend Loess (STL) decomposition. Interannual variability leads to varying trend estimates depending on the considered time span. Correction of post-glacial rebound effects on ice mass trend estimates represents no more than 8 Gt/y over the whole ice sheet. We also investigate possible climatic causes that can explain these ice mass interannual variations, as strong correlations between GRACE-based mass balance and atmosphere/ocean parallels are established: (1) changes in snow accumulation, and (2) the influence of inputs of warm ocean water that periodically accelerate the calving of glaciers in coastal regions and, feed-back effects of coastal water cooling by fresh currents from glaciers melting. These results suggest that the Greenland mass balance is driven by coastal sea surface temperature at time scales shorter than accumulation.

Reconstruction of dust flux of ODP Hole 198-1209C

Eolian dust in pelagic deep sea sediments can be used to reconstruct ancient wind patterns and paleoenvironmental response to climate change. Traditional methods to determine dust accumulation involve isolating the non-dissolvable aluminosilicate minerals from deep sea sediments through a series of chemical leaches, but cannot differentiate between minerals from eolian, authigenic and volcanogenic sources. Other geochemical proxies, such as sedimentary 232Th and crustal 4He content, have been used to construct high-resolution records of atmospheric dust fluxes to the deep sea during the Quaternary. Here we use sedimentary Th content as a proxy for terrigenous material (eolian dust) in ~58 Myr-old sediments from the Shatsky Rise (ODP Site 1209) and compare our results with previous dust estimates generated using the traditional chemical extraction method and sedimentary 4He(crustal) concentrations. We find excellent agreement between Th-based dust estimates and those generated using the traditional method. In addition our results show a correlation between sedimentary Th and 4He(crustal) content, which suggests a source older than present day Asian loess supplied dust to the central subtropical Pacific Ocean during the early Paleogene.

Multi-proxy analyses of sediment cores from the Pakistan continental margin

Late Holocene laminated sediments from a core transect centred in the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) impinging at the continental slope off Pakistan indicate stable oxygen minimum conditions for the past 7000 calendar years. High SW-monsoon-controlled biological productivity and enhanced organic matter preservation during this period is reflected in high contents of total organic carbon (TOC) and redox-sensitive elements (Ni, V), as well as by a low-diversity, high-abundance benthic foraminiferal Buliminacea association and high abundance of the planktonic species Globigerina bulloides indicative of upwelling conditions. Surface-water productivity was strongest during SW monsoon maxima. Stable OMZ conditions (reflected by laminated sediments) were found also during warm interstadial events (Preboreal, Bølling-Allerød, and Dansgaard-Oeschger events), as well as during peak glacial times (17-22.5 ka, all ages in calendar years). Sediment mass accumulation rates were at a maximum during the Preboreal and Younger Dryas periods due to strong riverine input and mobilisation of fine-grained sediment coinciding with rapid deglacial sea-level rise, whereas eolian input generally decreased from glacial to interglacial times. In contrast, the occurrence of bioturbated intervals from 7 to 10.5 ka (early Holocene), in the Younger Dryas (11.7-13 ka), from 15 to 17 ka (Heinrich event 1) and from 22.5 to 25 ka (Heinrich event 2) suggests completely different conditions of oxygen-rich bottom waters, extremely low mass and organic carbon accumulation rates, a high-diversity benthic fauna, all indicating lowered surface-water productivity. During these intervals the OMZ was very poorly developed or absent and a sharp fall of the aragonite compensation depth favoured the preservation of pteropods. The abundance of lithogenic proxies suggests aridity and wind transport by northwesterly or northeasterly winds during these periods coinciding with the North Atlantic Heinrich events and dust peaks in the Tibetan Loess records. The correlation of the monsoon-driven OMZ variability in the Arabian Sea with the rapid climatic fluctuations in the high northern latitudes suggests a close coupling between the climates of the high and low latitudes at a global scale.

Nd, Sr and Pb isotopic composition of eolian dust deposited in the central North Pacific

The silicate fractions of recent pelagic sediments in the central north Pacific Ocean are dominated by eolian dust derived from central Asia. An 11 Myr sedimentary record at ODP Sites 885/886 at 44.7°N, 168.3°W allows the evaluation of how such dust and its sources have changed in response to late Cenozoic climate and tectonics. The extracted eolian fraction contains variable amounts (>70%) of clay minerals with subordinate quartz and plagioclase. Uniform Nd isotopic compositions (epsilon-Nd =38.6 to 310.5) and Sm/Nd ratios (0.170-0.192) for most of the 11 Myr record demonstrate a well-mixed provenance in the basins north of the Tibetan Plateau and the Gobi Desert that was a source of dust long before the oldest preserved Asian loess formed. epsilon-Nd values of up to 36.5 for samples 62.9 Ma indicate <=35 wt% admixture of a young, Kamchatka-like volcanic arc component. The coherence of Pb and Nd in the erosional cycle allows us to constrain the Pb isotopic composition of Asian loess devoid of anthropogenic contamination to 206Pb/204Pb =18.97 +/- 0.06, 207Pb/204Pb =15.67 +/- 0.02, 208Pb/204Pb =39.19 +/- 0.11. 87Sr/86Sr (0.711-0.721) and Rb/Sr ratios (0.39-1.1) vary with dust mineralogy and provide an age indication of ~250 Ma. 40Ar/39Ar ages of six dust samples are uniform around 200 Ma and match the K-Ar ages of modern dust deposited on Hawaii. These data reflect the weighted age average of illite formation. Changes from illite- smectite with significant kaolinite to illite- and chlorite-rich, kaolinite-free assemblages since the late Pliocene document changes in the intensity of chemical weathering in the source region. Such weathering evidently did not disturb the K-Ar systematics, and only induced scatter in the Rb-Sr data. We propose that when smectite forms at the expense of illite, K and Ar are quantitatively lost from what becomes smectite, but are quantitatively retained in adjacent illite layers. 40Ar/39Ar age data, therefore, are insensitive to smectite formation during chemical weathering but date the diagenetic growth of illite, the major K-bearing phase in the dust. Over the past 12 Myr, the dust flux to the north Pacific increased by more than an order of magnitude, documenting a substantial drying of central Asia. This climatic change, however, did not alter the ultimate source of the dust, and neoformational products of chemical weathering always remained subordinate to assemblages reworked by mechanical erosion in dust deposited in eastern Asia and the Pacific Ocean.