Prediction of postpartum depression using multilayer perceptrons and pruning.

OBJECTIVE. The main goal of this paper is to obtain a classification model based on feed-forward multilayer perceptrons in order to improve postpartum depression prediction during the 32 weeks after childbirth with a high sensitivity and specificity and to develop a tool to be integrated in a decision support system for clinicians. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Multilayer perceptrons were trained on data from 1397 women who had just given birth, from seven Spanish general hospitals, including clinical, environmental and genetic variables. A prospective cohort study was made just after delivery, at 8 weeks and at 32 weeks after delivery. The models were evaluated with the geometric mean of accuracies using a hold-out strategy. RESULTS. Multilayer perceptrons showed good performance (high sensitivity and specificity) as predictive models for postpartum depression. CONCLUSIONS. The use of these models in a decision support system can be clinically evaluated in future work. The analysis of the models by pruning leads to a qualitative interpretation of the influence of each variable in the interest of clinical protocols.

Influence of environmental conditions on the distribution of Central Asian green toads with three ploidy levels.

We studied the distribution of Palearctic green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup), an anuran species group with three ploidy levels, inhabiting the Central Asian Amudarya River drainage. Various approaches (one-way, multivariate, components variance analyses and maximum entropy modelling) were used to estimate the effect of altitude, precipitation, temperature and land vegetation covers on the distribution of toads. It is usually assumed that polyploid species occur in regions with harsher climatic conditions (higher latitudes, elevations, etc.), but for the green toads complex, we revealed a more intricate situation. The diploid species (Bufo shaartusiensis and Bufo turanensis) inhabit the arid lowlands (from 44 to 789 m a.s.l.), while tetraploid Bufo pewzowi were recorded in mountainous regions (340-3492 m a.s.l.) with usually lower temperatures and higher precipitation rates than in the region inhabited by diploid species. The triploid species Bufo baturae was found in the Pamirs (Tajikistan) at the highest altitudes (2503-3859 m a.s.l.) under the harshest climatic conditions.

Sources of pre-analytical variations in yield of DNA extracted from blood samples: analysis of 50,000 DNA samples in EPIC.

The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) is a long-term, multi-centric prospective study in Europe investigating the relationships between cancer and nutrition. This study has served as a basis for a number of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) and other types of genetic analyses. Over a period of 5 years, 52,256 EPIC DNA samples have been extracted using an automated DNA extraction platform. Here we have evaluated the pre-analytical factors affecting DNA yield, including anthropometric, epidemiological and technical factors such as center of subject recruitment, age, gender, body-mass index, disease case or control status, tobacco consumption, number of aliquots of buffy coat used for DNA extraction, extraction machine or procedure, DNA quantification method, degree of haemolysis and variations in the timing of sample processing. We show that the largest significant variations in DNA yield were observed with degree of haemolysis and with center of subject recruitment. Age, gender, body-mass index, cancer case or control status and tobacco consumption also significantly impacted DNA yield. Feedback from laboratories which have analyzed DNA with different SNP genotyping technologies demonstrate that the vast majority of samples (approximately 88%) performed adequately in different types of assays. To our knowledge this study is the largest to date to evaluate the sources of pre-analytical variations in DNA extracted from peripheral leucocytes. The results provide a strong evidence-based rationale for standardized recommendations on blood collection and processing protocols for large-scale genetic studies.

Exploring the association between Trypanosoma cruzi infection in rural communities and environmental changes in the southern Gran Chaco

The association between land use and land cover changes between 1979-2004 in a 2.26-million-hectare area south of the Gran Chaco region and Trypanosoma cruzi infection in rural communities was analysed. The extent of cultural land, open and closed forests and shrubland up to 3,000 m around rural communities in the north, northwest and west of the province of Córdoba was estimated using Landsat satellite imagery. The T. cruzi prevalence was estimated with a cross-sectional serological survey conducted in the rural communities. The land cover showed the same patterns in the 1979, 1999 and 2004 satellite imagery in both the northwest and west regions, with shrinking regions of cultured land and expanding closed forests away from the community. The closed forests and agricultural land coverage in the north region showed the same trend as in the northwest and west regions in 1979 but not in 1999 or 2004. In the latter two years, the coverage remote from the communities was either constant or changed in opposite ways from that of the northwest and west regions. The changes in closed forests and cultured vegetation alone did not have a significant, direct relationship with the occurrence of rural communities with at least one person infected by T. cruzi. This study suggests that the overall decrease in the prevalence of T. cruzi is a consequence of a combined effect of vector control activities and changes in land use and land cover.

Controls on ostracod valve geochemistry, Part 1: Variations of environmental parameters in ostracod (micro-)habitats

The variations of environmental conditions (T°, pH, δ13CDIC, [DIC], δ18O, Mg/Ca, and Sr/Ca) of ostracod habitats were examined to determine the controls of environmental parameters on the chemical and isotopic composition of ostracod valves. Results of a one-year monitoring of environmental parameters at five sites, with depths of between 2 and 70 m, in Lake Geneva indicate that in littoral to sub-littoral zones (2, 5, and 13 m), the chemical composition of bottom water varies seasonally in concert with changes in temperature and photosynthetic activity. An increase of temperature and photosynthetic activity leads to an increase in δ13C values of DIC and to precipitation of authigenic calcite, which results in a concomitant increase of Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios of water. In deeper sites (33 and 70 m), the composition of bottom water remains constant throughout the year and isotopic values and trace element contents are similar to those of deep water within the lake. The chemical composition of interstitial pore water also does not reflect seasonal variations but is controlled by calcite dissolution, aerobic respiration, anaerobic respiration with reduction of sulphate and/or nitrate, and methanogenesis that may occur in the sediment pores. Relative influence of each of these factors on the pore water geochemistry depends on sediment thickness and texture, oxygen content in bottom as well as pore water. Variations of chemical compositions of the ostracod valves of this study vary according to the specific ecology of the ostracod species analysed, that is its life-cycle and its (micro-)habitat. Littoral species have compositions that are related to the seasonal variations of temperature, δ13C values of DIC, and of Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios of water. In contrast, the compositions of profundal species are largely controlled by variations of pore fluids along sediment depth profiles according to the specific depth preference of the species. The control on the geochemistry of sub-littoral species is a combination of controls for the littoral and profundal species as well as the specific ecology of the species.

Delimitation of kala-azar risk areas in the district of Vaishali in Bihar (India) using a geo-environmental approach

Remote sensing and geographical information technologies were used to discriminate areas of high and low risk for contracting kala-azar or visceral leishmaniasis. Satellite data were digitally processed to generate maps of land cover and spectral indices, such as the normalised difference vegetation index and wetness index. To map estimated vector abundance and indoor climate data, local polynomial interpolations were used based on the weightage values. Attribute layers were prepared based on illiteracy and the unemployed proportion of the population and associated with village boundaries. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to estimate the relationship between environmental variables and disease incidence across the study area. The cell values for each input raster in the analysis were assigned values from the evaluation scale. Simple weighting/ratings based on the degree of favourable conditions for kala-azar transmission were used for all the variables, leading to geo-environmental risk model. Variables such as, land use/land cover, vegetation conditions, surface dampness, the indoor climate, illiteracy rates and the size of the unemployed population were considered for inclusion in the geo-environmental kala-azar risk model. The risk model was stratified into areas of "risk"and "non-risk"for the disease, based on calculation of risk indices. The described approach constitutes a promising tool for microlevel kala-azar surveillance and aids in directing control efforts.

Environmental influences on antibody-enhanced dengue disease outcomes

Because an enriched environment (EE) enhances T-cell activity and T-lymphocytes contribute to immunopathogenesis during heterologous dengue virus (DENV) infections, we hypothesised that an EE increases dengue severity. To compare single serotype (SS) and antibody-enhanced disease (AED) infections regimens, serial intraperitoneal were performed with DENV3 (genotype III) infected brain homogenate or anti-DENV2 hyperimmune serum followed 24 h later by DENV3 (genotype III) infected brain homogenate. Compared AED for which significant differences were detected between the EE and impoverished environmental (IE) groups (Kaplan-Meyer log-rank test, p = 0.0025), no significant differences were detected between the SS experimental groups (Kaplan-Meyer log-rank test, p = 0.089). Survival curves from EE and IE animals infected with the AED regimen were extended after corticoid injection and this effect was greater in the EE than in the IE group (Kaplan-Meyer log-rank test, p = 0.0162). Under the AED regimen the EE group showed more intense clinical signs than the IE group. Dyspnoea, tremor, hunched posture, ruffled fur, immobility, pre-terminal paralysis, shock and death were associated with dominant T-lymphocytic hyperplasia and presence of viral antigens in the liver and lungs. We propose that the increased expansion of these memory T-cells and serotype cross-reactive antibodies facilitates the infection of these cells by DENV and that these events correlate with disease severity in an EE.

Using a top predator as a sentinel for environmental contamination with pathogenic bacteria: the Iberian wolf and leptospires

The Iberian wolf (Canis lupus) is the top predator in the Iberian environments in which it lives, feeding on a wide range of species, thus encountering a wide range of disease agents. Therefore, the wolf can serve as sentinel of environmental contamination with pathogens. We investigated the exposure of free-living wolves to 14 serovars of Leptospira interrogans sensu lato. Kidney samples from 49 wolves collected from 2010-2013 in northwestern Spain were analysed by culture, direct immunofluorescence and polymerase chain reaction. Tissue fluids were analysed for antibodies by a microscopic agglutination test. Ten wolves (observed prevalence: 20%, 95% confidence interval = 11-33%) showed evidence of contact with leptospires, eight through direct detection and nine through serology (7 wolves were positive according to both techniques). Titres below the cut-off level were also detected in seven cases. Serovars confirmed were Canicola (n = 4), Icterohaemorrhagiae (n = 3) and Sejroë, Ballum and Grippotyphosa (n = 1 each), indicating that wolves were infected with serovars for which dogs, rodents and ungulates, are the natural hosts and supporting the utility of the wolf and other large predators as environmental sentinels for pathogens.

Stochastic optimal bid to electricity markets with environmental risk constraints

There are many factors that influence the day-ahead market bidding strategies of a generation company (GenCo) in the current energy market framework. Environmental policy issues have become more and more important for fossil-fuelled power plants and they have to be considered in their management, giving rise to emission limitations. This work allows to investigate the influence of both the allowances and emission reduction plan, and the incorporation of the derivatives medium-term commitments in the optimal generation bidding strategy to the day-ahead electricity market. Two different technologies have been considered: the coal thermal units, high-emission technology, and the combined cycle gas turbine units, low-emission technology. The Iberian Electricity Market and the Spanish National Emissions and Allocation Plans are the framework to deal with the environmental issues in the day-ahead market bidding strategies. To address emission limitations, some of the standard risk management methodologies developed for financial markets, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), have been extended. This study offers to electricity generation utilities a mathematical model to determinate the individual optimal generation bid to the wholesale electricity market, for each one of their generation units that maximizes the long-run profits of the utility abiding by the Iberian Electricity Market rules, the environmental restrictions set by the EU Emission Trading Scheme, as well as the restrictions set by the Spanish National Emissions Reduction Plan. The economic implications for a GenCo of including the environmental restrictions of these National Plans are analyzed and the most remarkable results will be presented.

Agriculture, technological change and environmental sustainability: Looking for a win-win water policy strategy

This paper analyses the effects that technological changes in agriculture would have on environmental, social and economic indicators. Specifically, our study is focused on two alternative technological improvements: the modernization of water transportation systems versus the increase in the total factor productivity of agriculture. Using a computable general equilibrium model for the Catalan economy, our results suggest that a water policy that leads to greater economic efficiency is not necessarily optimal if we consider social or environmental criteria. Moreover, improving environmental sustainability depends less on the type of technological change than on the institutional framework in which technological change occurs. Keywords: agricultural technological changes, computable general equilibrium model, economic impact, water policy

Economic and environmental effects of the CO2 taxation: an input-output analysis for Spain

CO2 emissions induced by human activities are the major cause of climate change; hence, strong environmental policy that limits the growing dependence on fossil fuel is indispensable. Tradable permits and environmental taxes are the usual tools used in CO2 reduction strategies. Such economic tools provide incentives to polluting industries to reduce their emissions through market signals. The aim of this work is to investigate the direct and indirect effects of an environmental tax on Spanish products and services. We apply an environmentally extended input-output (EIO) model to identify CO2 emission intensities of products and services and, accordingly, we estimate the tax proportional to these intensities. The short-term price effects are analyzed using an input-output price model. The effect of tax introduction on consumption prices and its influence on consumers’ welfare are determined. We also quantify the environmental impacts of such taxation in terms of the reduction in CO2 emissions. The results, based on the Spanish economy for the year 2007, show that sectors with relatively poor environmental profile are subjected to high environmental tax rates. And consequently, applying a CO2 tax on these sectors, increases production prices and induces a slight increase in consumer price index and a decrease in private welfare. The revenue from the tax could be used to counter balance the negative effects on social welfare and also to stimulate the increase of renewable energy shares in the most impacting sectors. Finally, our analysis highlights that the environmental and economic goals cannot be met at the same time with the environmental taxation and this shows the necessity of finding other (complementary or alternative) measures to ensure both the economic and ecological efficiencies. Keywords: CO2 emissions; environmental tax; input-output model, effects of environmental taxation.

Políticas para prevenir los daños causados por el alcohol.

The impact on health of alcohol in a given society is mainly related with the volume and pattern of drinking, and these are related with individual factors, but also with environmental factors, among which public policies are important determinants. Public policies may favour or reduce alcohol use, and thus have a substantial preventive capacity. The effectiveness of policies to prevent the harm caused by alcohol has been reviewed in recent documents, which provide evidence to extract recommendations. This paper reviews the most effective policies to reduce the harm caused by alcohol, with an emphasis in the use of taxes to increase its cost, availability regulation, and policies on drinking and driving. The regulation of alcohol promotion and publicity is also assessed, as well as the detection and treatment of alcohol abuse and dependence. The state of alcohol related policies in Spain is analysed, as well as the obstacles, for the adoption of policies more prone to prevention, and recommendations for the future are made.