Electric field control of magnetism in hydrid ferromagnetic / ferroelectric materials

Väisälän palkinnon 2012 saaja.

Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

Long-term nutrient load management and lake restoration: Case of Säkylän Pyhäjärvi (SW Finland)

Eutrophication caused by anthropogenic nutrient pollution has become one of the most severe threats to water bodies. Nutrients enter water bodies from atmospheric precipitation, industrial and domestic wastewaters and surface runoff from agricultural and forest areas. As point pollution has been significantly reduced in developed countries in recent decades, agricultural non-point sources have been increasingly identified as the largest source of nutrient loading in water bodies. In this study, Lake Säkylän Pyhäjärvi and its catchment are studied as an example of a long-term, voluntary-based, co-operative model of lake and catchment management. Lake Pyhäjärvi is located in the centre of an intensive agricultural area in southwestern Finland. More than 20 professional fishermen operate in the lake area, and the lake is used as a drinking water source and for various recreational activities. Lake Pyhäjärvi is a good example of a large and shallow lake that suffers from eutrophication and is subject to measures to improve this undesired state under changing conditions. Climate change is one of the most important challenges faced by Lake Pyhäjärvi and other water bodies. The results show that climatic variation affects the amounts of runoff and nutrient loading and their timing during the year. The findings from the study area concerning warm winters and their influences on nutrient loading are in accordance with the IPCC scenarios of future climate change. In addition to nutrient reduction measures, the restoration of food chains (biomanipulation) is a key method in water quality management. The food-web structure in Lake Pyhäjärvi has, however, become disturbed due to mild winters, short ice cover and low fish catch. Ice cover that enables winter seining is extremely important to the water quality and ecosystem of Lake Pyhäjärvi, as the vendace stock is one of the key factors affecting the food web and the state of the lake. New methods for the reduction of nutrient loading and the treatment of runoff waters from agriculture, such as sand filters, were tested in field conditions. The results confirm that the filter technique is an applicable method for nutrient reduction, but further development is needed. The ability of sand filters to absorb nutrients can be improved with nutrient binding compounds, such as lime. Long-term hydrological, chemical and biological research and monitoring data on Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment provide a basis for water protection measures and improve our understanding of the complicated physical, chemical and biological interactions between the terrestrial and aquatic realms. In addition to measurements carried out in field conditions, Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment were studied using various modelling methods. In the calibration and validation of models, long-term and wide-ranging time series data proved to be valuable. Collaboration between researchers, modellers and local water managers further improves the reliability and usefulness of models. Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment can also be regarded as a good research laboratory from the point of view of the Baltic Sea. The main problem in both of them is eutrophication caused by excess nutrients, and nutrient loading has to be reduced – especially from agriculture. Mitigation measures are also similar in both cases.

Aktiivisen verkkosillan tuottaman yhteismuotoisen jännitteen vaimentaminen kaksitasoisessa, jännitevälipiirillisessä, taajuusmuuttajatopologiassa

Pulssinleveysmoduloidun vaihtosuuntaajan hyötysuhteen parantaminen ja kytkentätaajuuden suurentaminen ovat johtaneet lähtöjännitteen suuritaajuiseen taajuussisältöön kaksitasoisessa, jännitevälipiirillisessä taajuusmuuttajatopologiassa. Kasvava tarve siirtää tehoa myös verkkoon päin on lisännyt aktiivisen verkkosillan käyttöä. Kaksitasoisen aktiivisen verkkosillan vaikutuksesta DC-välipiirin keskipisteen ja kolmivaiheisen kuorman tähtipisteen välinen jännite on nollasta poikkeava aiheuttaen suurentuneen yhteismuotoisen jännitteen taajuusmuuttajan lähtöön ja verkon puolelle. Lisäksi yhteismuotoisten jännitteiden aiheuttamat kytkentätaajuiset häiriövirrat voivat aiheuttaa vikavirtasuojien tahatonta laukeamista, vaikeuttaa EMC-standardien vaatimusten täyttämistä, lisätä moottorin käämieristyksien rasitusta ja mahdollisuutta moottorin laakerivaurioille. Diplomityössä tutkitaan aktiivisen ja passiivisen verkkosillan tuottamaa yhteismuotoista jännitettä simuloinneilla. Esitellään aikaisempaa tutkimustietoa yhteismuotoisen jännitteen ja virran vaimennusratkaisuista aktiivista verkkosiltaa käytettäessä. Tutkimustiedon pohjalta suunnitellaan koelaitteistolle soveltuva suodin. Suotimen toiminta testataan simuloinnein sekä kokeellisin mittauksin. Tehdyt mittaukset osoittavat, että suunniteltu suodin vaimentaa yhteismuotoista jännitettä noin 20 dB verkkosillan kytkentätaajuudella ja tämän jälkeen yli 20 dB/dekadi taajuuteen 100 kHz asti. Lisäksi yhteismuotoisen virran suuruus syöttökaapelin kautta pieneni ehdotetun suotimen vaikutuksesta.

Process modeling method for electric accessories manufacturing enterprise

The theoretical research of the study focused to business process management and business process modeling, the goal was to found a new business process modeling method for electrical accessories manufacturing enterprise. The focus was to find few options for business process modeling methods where company could have chosen the best one for its needs The study was carried out as a qualitative research with an action study and a case study as the most important ways collect data. In the empirical part of the study examples of company’s processes modeled with the new modeling method and process modeling process are presented. The new way of modeling processes improves especially visual presentation of the processes and improves the understanding how employees should work in the organizational interfaces of the process and in the interfaces between different processes. The results of the study is a new unified way to model company’s processes, which makes it easier to understand and create the process models. This improved readability makes it possible to reduce the costs that were created from the unclear old process models.

Forecasting of wind speeds and directions with artificial neural networks

In this master’s thesis, wind speeds and directions were modeled with the aim of developing suitable models for hourly, daily, weekly and monthly forecasting. Artificial Neural Networks implemented in MATLAB software were used to perform the forecasts. Three main types of artificial neural network were built, namely: Feed forward neural networks, Jordan Elman neural networks and Cascade forward neural networks. Four sub models of each of these neural networks were also built, corresponding to the four forecast horizons, for both wind speeds and directions. A single neural network topology was used for each of the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of wind speeds and directions collected over a period of two years in the municipal region of Puumala in Finland. Only 70% of the data was used for training, validation and testing of the models, while the second last 15% of the data was presented to the trained models for verification. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the mean square errors and sum square errors between them. Based on the results, the feed forward networks returned the lowest generalization errors for hourly, weekly and monthly forecasts of wind speeds; Jordan Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for forecasting of daily wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors when used for forecasting daily, weekly and monthly wind directions; Jordan Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for hourly forecasting. The errors were relatively low during training of the models, but shot up upon simulation with new inputs. In addition, a combination of hyperbolic tangent transfer functions for both hidden and output layers returned better results compared to other combinations of transfer functions. In general, wind speeds were more predictable as compared to wind directions, opening up opportunities for further research into building better models for wind direction forecasting.

Demand forecasting process design and methods in medium sized enterprise

The purpose of this thesis was to study the design of demand forecasting processes and management of demand. In literature review were different processes found and forecasting methods and techniques interviewed. Also role of bullwhip effect in supply chain was identified and how to manage it with information sharing operations. In the empirical part of study is at first described current situation and challenges in case company. After that will new way to handle demand introduced with target budget creation and how information sharing with 5 products and a few customers would bring benefits to company. Also the new S&OP process created within this study and organization for it.

Monitoring human cytomegalovirus viral load in peripheral blood leukocytes of renal transplant recipients by a simple limiting dilution-PCR assay

To assess the clinical relevance of a semi-quantitative measurement of human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) DNA in renal transplant recipients within the typical clinical context of a developing country where virtually 100% of both receptors and donors are seropositive for this virus, we have undertaken HCMV DNA quantification using a simple, semi-quantitative, limiting dilution polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We evaluated this assay prospectively in 52 renal transplant patients from whom a total of 495 serial blood samples were collected. The samples scored HCMV positive by qualitative PCR had the levels of HCMV DNA determined by end-point dilution-PCR. All patients were HCMV DNA positive during the monitoring period and a diagnosis of symptomatic infection was made for 4 of 52 patients. In symptomatic patients the geometric mean of the highest level of HCMV DNAemia was 152,000 copies per 106 leukocytes, while for the asymptomatic group this value was 12,050. Symptomatic patients showed high, protracted HCMV DNA levels, whereas asymptomatic patients demonstrated intermittent low or moderate levels. Using a cut-off value of 100,000 copies per 106 leukocytes, the limiting dilution assay had sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 92%, a positive predictive value of 43% and a negative predictive value of 100% for HCMV disease. In this patient group, there was universal HCMV infection but relatively infrequent symptomatic HCMV disease. The two patient groups were readily distinguished by monitoring with the limiting dilution assay, an extremely simple technology immediately applicable in any clinical laboratory with PCR capability.

Pulsed electric field assisted sol-gel preparation of TiO2 particles and their photocatalytic properties

The objective of this thesis was to study the effect of pulsed electric field on the preparation of TiO2 nanoparticles via sol-gel method. The literature part deals with properties of different TiO2 crystal forms, principles of photocatalysis, sol-gel method and pulsed electric field processing. It was expected that the pulsed electric field would have an influence on crystallite size, specific surface area, polymorphism and photocatalytic activity of produced particles. TiO2 samples were prepared by using different frequencies and treatment times of pulsed electric field. The properties of produced TiO2 particles were examined X-ray diffraction (XRD), Raman spectroscopy and BET surface area analysis. The photocatalytic activities of produced TiO2 particles were determined by using them as photocatalysts for the degradation of formic acid under UVA-light. The photocatalytic activities of samples produced with sol-gel method were also compared with the commercial TiO2 powder Aeroxide® (Evonic Degussa GmbH). Pulsed electric field did not have an effect on the morphology of particles. Results from XRD and Raman analysis showed that all produced TiO2 samples were pure anatase. However, pulsed electric field did have an effect on crystallite size, specific surface area and photocatalytic activity of TiO2 particles. Generally, the crystallite sizes were smaller, specific surface areas larger and initial formic acid degradation rates higher for samples that were produced by applying the pulsed electric field. The higher photocatalytic activities were attributed to larger surface areas and smaller crystallite sizes. Though, with all of the TiO2 samples produced by the sol-gel method the initial formic acid degradation rates were significantly slower than with the commercial TiO2 powder.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Spectrum of stock price behavior - NYSE case study

The desire to create a statistical or mathematical model, which would allow predicting the future changes in stock prices, was born many years ago. Economists and mathematicians are trying to solve this task by applying statistical analysis and physical laws, but there are still no satisfactory results. The main reason for this is that a stock exchange is a non-stationary, unstable and complex system, which is influenced by many factors. In this thesis the New York Stock Exchange was considered as the system to be explored. A topological analysis, basic statistical tools and singular value decomposition were conducted for understanding the behavior of the market. Two methods for normalization of initial daily closure prices by Dow Jones and S&P500 were introduced and applied for further analysis. As a result, some unexpected features were identified, such as a shape of distribution of correlation matrix, a bulk of which is shifted to the right hand side with respect to zero. Also non-ergodicity of NYSE was confirmed graphically. It was shown, that singular vectors differ from each other by a constant factor. There are for certain results no clear conclusions from this work, but it creates a good basis for the further analysis of market topology.

Influence of Pulsed-Electric Field Irradiation in Crystallization

The growing pharmaceutical interest, among others, in the polymorphic composition of the emerging solid end-products from production processes has been traced to the need for attainment of high product purity. This is more so as the presence of different polymorphs may constitute physical impurity of the product. Hence, the need for optimization of the yield of desired product component(s) through controlled crystallization kinetics for instance. This study was carried out to investigate the impact of pulsed electric field (PEF) irradiation on the crystal morphology of glycine obtained by cooling crystallization (without seeding) from commercial glycine sample in distilled deionized water solution. In doing so, three different pulse frequencies (294, 950 and 145 Hz) and a case without PEF were studied at three cooling rates (5, 10 and 20 ºC/h). The crystal products obtained were analyzed for polymorphic composition by powder x-ray diffraction (PXRD) and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy while the particles characterization was done on Morphologi G3. The results obtained from this study showed that pulsed electric field irradiation had significant impact on metastability of the aqueous solution as well as on the polymorphic composition of the end product. With increasing PEF frequency applied, nucleation started earlier and the γ-glycine polymorph content of the product crystals increased. These were found to have been aided by cooling rate, as the most significant effect was observed at 5 ºC/h. It was also discovered that PEF application had no measurable impact on the pH of the aqueous solution as well as the size distribution of the particles. Cooling on the contrary was believed to be responsible for the broadening of the particle size distribution with a downward shift of the lower limit of the raw material from about 100 μm to between 10 and 50 μm.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Quantitative analysis of nodal prices in the New Zealand Electricity Spot Market

Time series of hourly electricity spot prices have peculiar properties. Electricity is by its nature difficult to store and has to be available on demand. There are many reasons for wanting to understand correlations in price movements, e.g. risk management purposes. The entire analysis carried out in this thesis has been applied to the New Zealand nodal electricity prices: offer prices (from 29 May 2002 to 31 March 2009) and final prices (from 1 January 1999 to 31 March 2009). In this paper, such natural factors as location of the node and generation type in the node that effects the correlation between nodal prices have been reviewed. It was noticed that the geographical factor affects the correlation between nodes more than others. Therefore, the visualisation of correlated nodes was done. However, for the offer prices the clear separation of correlated and not correlated nodes was not obtained. Finally, it was concluded that location factor most strongly affects correlation of electricity nodal prices; problems in visualisation probably associated with power losses when the power is transmitted over long distance.

Keskitehoestimaattorin lisääminen diesel-sähköiseen hybridijärjestelmään

Nykyajan jatkuvasti kiristyvät päästörajoitukset ja ilmastonmuutoksen uhka ovat ajavia voimia kehittämään voimalaitosten tekniikkaa energiatehokkaampaan ja ympäristöystävällisempään suuntaan. Polttomoottoritekniikan parantaminen on tärkeä osa tätä kehitystä, mutta jo nykyisiä moottoreita voitaisiin ajaa energiate-hokkaammin käyttämällä akustoa ja älykästä säätöjärjestelmää apuna. Työssä tutkitaan simulaatioiden avulla voidaanko ulkomerellä toimivan huolto-aluksen energiatehokkuutta parantaa muokkaamalla sen tehon tuottoa keskitehoes-timaattorin ja akuston avulla.

Lightweight, liquid-cooled, direct-drive generator for highpower wind turbines: motivation, concept, and performance

Thesis: A liquid-cooled, direct-drive, permanent-magnet, synchronous generator with helical, double-layer, non-overlapping windings formed from a copper conductor with a coaxial internal coolant conduit offers an excellent combination of attributes to reliably provide economic wind power for the coming generation of wind turbines with power ratings between 5 and 20MW. A generator based on the liquid-cooled architecture proposed here will be reliable and cost effective. Its smaller size and mass will reduce build, transport, and installation costs. Summary: Converting wind energy into electricity and transmitting it to an electrical power grid to supply consumers is a relatively new and rapidly developing method of electricity generation. In the most recent decade, the increase in wind energy’s share of overall energy production has been remarkable. Thousands of land-based and offshore wind turbines have been commissioned around the globe, and thousands more are being planned. The technologies have evolved rapidly and are continuing to evolve, and wind turbine sizes and power ratings are continually increasing. Many of the newer wind turbine designs feature drivetrains based on Direct-Drive, Permanent-Magnet, Synchronous Generators (DD-PMSGs). Being low-speed high-torque machines, the diameters of air-cooled DD-PMSGs become very large to generate higher levels of power. The largest direct-drive wind turbine generator in operation today, rated just below 8MW, is 12m in diameter and approximately 220 tonne. To generate higher powers, traditional DD-PMSGs would need to become extraordinarily large. A 15MW air-cooled direct-drive generator would be of colossal size and tremendous mass and no longer economically viable. One alternative to increasing diameter is instead to increase torque density. In a permanent magnet machine, this is best done by increasing the linear current density of the stator windings. However, greater linear current density results in more Joule heating, and the additional heat cannot be removed practically using a traditional air-cooling approach. Direct liquid cooling is more effective, and when applied directly to the stator windings, higher linear current densities can be sustained leading to substantial increases in torque density. The higher torque density, in turn, makes possible significant reductions in DD-PMSG size. Over the past five years, a multidisciplinary team of researchers has applied a holistic approach to explore the application of liquid cooling to permanent-magnet wind turbine generator design. The approach has considered wind energy markets and the economics of wind power, system reliability, electromagnetic behaviors and design, thermal design and performance, mechanical architecture and behaviors, and the performance modeling of installed wind turbines. This dissertation is based on seven publications that chronicle the work. The primary outcomes are the proposal of a novel generator architecture, a multidisciplinary set of analyses to predict the behaviors, and experimentation to demonstrate some of the key principles and validate the analyses. The proposed generator concept is a direct-drive, surface-magnet, synchronous generator with fractional-slot, duplex-helical, double-layer, non-overlapping windings formed from a copper conductor with a coaxial internal coolant conduit to accommodate liquid coolant flow. The novel liquid-cooling architecture is referred to as LC DD-PMSG. The first of the seven publications summarized in this dissertation discusses the technological and economic benefits and limitations of DD-PMSGs as applied to wind energy. The second publication addresses the long-term reliability of the proposed LC DD-PMSG design. Publication 3 examines the machine’s electromagnetic design, and Publication 4 introduces an optimization tool developed to quickly define basic machine parameters. The static and harmonic behaviors of the stator and rotor wheel structures are the subject of Publication 5. And finally, Publications 6 and 7 examine steady-state and transient thermal behaviors. There have been a number of ancillary concrete outcomes associated with the work including the following. X Intellectual Property (IP) for direct liquid cooling of stator windings via an embedded coaxial coolant conduit, IP for a lightweight wheel structure for lowspeed, high-torque electrical machinery, and IP for numerous other details of the LC DD-PMSG design X Analytical demonstrations of the equivalent reliability of the LC DD-PMSG; validated electromagnetic, thermal, structural, and dynamic prediction models; and an analytical demonstration of the superior partial load efficiency and annual energy output of an LC DD-PMSG design X A set of LC DD-PMSG design guidelines and an analytical tool to establish optimal geometries quickly and early on X Proposed 8 MW LC DD-PMSG concepts for both inner and outer rotor configurations Furthermore, three technologies introduced could be relevant across a broader spectrum of applications. 1) The cost optimization methodology developed as part of this work could be further improved to produce a simple tool to establish base geometries for various electromagnetic machine types. 2) The layered sheet-steel element construction technology used for the LC DD-PMSG stator and rotor wheel structures has potential for a wide range of applications. And finally, 3) the direct liquid-cooling technology could be beneficial in higher speed electromotive applications such as vehicular electric drives.

Accuracy improvement of a demand forecasting model

This research concerns different statistical methods that assist to increase the demand forecasting accuracy of company X’s forecasting model. Current forecasting process was analyzed in details. As a result, graphical scheme of logical algorithm was developed. Based on the analysis of the algorithm and forecasting errors, all the potential directions for model future improvements in context of its accuracy were gathered into the complete list. Three improvement directions were chosen for further practical research, on their basis, three test models were created and verified. Novelty of this work lies in the methodological approach of the original analysis of the model, which identified its critical points, as well as the uniqueness of the developed test models. Results of the study formed the basis of the grant of the Government of St. Petersburg.