Optimal Investment in Energy Efficiency under Uncertainty

41 p.

Evaluating the Role of Energy Efficiency Labels: the Case of Dish Washers

27 p.

The Determinants of Energy Efficiency Investments in the U.S.

31 p.

Mechanistic studies of reactions at the single-molecule level using microfluidics with applications in molecular diagnostics

Motivated by needs in molecular diagnostics and advances in microfabrication, researchers started to seek help from microfluidic technology, as it provides approaches to achieve high throughput, high sensitivity, and high resolution. One strategy applied in microfluidics to fulfill such requirements is to convert continuous analog signal into digitalized signal. One most commonly used example for this conversion is digital PCR, where by counting the number of reacted compartments (triggered by the presence of the target entity) out of the total number of compartments, one could use Poisson statistics to calculate the amount of input target.

However, there are still problems to be solved and assumptions to be validated before the technology is widely employed. In this dissertation, the digital quantification strategy has been examined from two angles: efficiency and robustness. The former is a critical factor for ensuring the accuracy of absolute quantification methods, and the latter is the premise for such technology to be practically implemented in diagnosis beyond the laboratory. The two angles are further framed into a “fate” and “rate” determination scheme, where the influence of different parameters is attributed to fate determination step or rate determination step. In this discussion, microfluidic platforms have been used to understand reaction mechanism at single molecule level. Although the discussion raises more challenges for digital assay development, it brings the problem to the attention of the scientific community for the first time.

This dissertation also contributes towards developing POC test in limited resource settings. On one hand, it adds ease of access to the tests by incorporating massively producible, low cost plastic material and by integrating new features that allow instant result acquisition and result feedback. On the other hand, it explores new isothermal chemistry and new strategies to address important global health concerns such as cyctatin C quantification, HIV/HCV detection and treatment monitoring as well as HCV genotyping.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Price Premium for High-Efficiency Refrigerators and Calculation of Price-Elasticities for Close-Substitutes: Combining Hedonic Pricing and Demand Systems

21 p.

Economic Efficiency, Environmental Effectiveness and Political Feasibility of Energy Efficiency Rebates: The Case of the Spanish Energy Efficiency 'Renove' Plan

29 p.

Economic Evaluation of Energy Efficiency Labelling in Domestic Appliances: the Spanish Market

30 p.

Descoloração e Mineralização de Corantes Reativos por Processo Fotocatalítico Utilizando ZnO e Radiação UV

As indústrias consomem volumes elevados de água e outras substâncias químicas na síntese dos seus produtos e geram grande quantidade de rejeitos. Entre os mais importantes poluentes encontrados nos efluentes dessas indústrias estão os corantes sintéticos que representam um problema, pois não são facilmente destruídos por tratamentos convencionais. A fotocatálise heterogênea tem sido considerada como uma alternativa efetiva no tratamento de efluentes contendo esses corantes. Neste trabalho, estudou-se a cinética de descoloração e o grau de mineralização dos corantes sintéticos reativos Yellow 145, Black 5, Red 4 e Blue 21 através da fotocatálise utilizando ZnO puro e impregnado com íons Fe2+ e Co2+. Testes preliminares foram realizados para otimizar a concentração dos corantes e a massa mínima de catalisador a ser utilizado nos experimentos fotocatalíticos. Além da fotocatálise, experimentos individuais de fotólise e adsorção também foram realizados, porém se mostraram poucos eficientes. Através da espectrofotometria UV-Vis, verificou-se o total descoramento individual dos corantes em aproximadamente 30 minutos de irradiação com ZnO. O grau de mineralização de cada corante foi determinado através de análise de carbono orgânico total (COT), atingindo-se cerca de 70 a 80% de mineralização após 240 minutos de tratamento fotocatalítico. Foram comparadas, ainda, as eficiências de cada fotocatalisador ZnO, Fe/ZnO e Co/ZnO na mineralização de uma solução contendo a mistura dos quatro corantes já mencionados após 240 minutos de reação. A eficiência na mineralização da mistura dos corantes seguiu a seguinte ordem: Co/ZnO (32%), ZnO (78%) e Fe/ZnO (87%). A reação de degradação fotocatalítica do corante Black 5 seguiu uma cinética de primeira ordem, enquanto que os corantes Yellow 145, Red 4 e Blue 21 seguiram uma cinética de ordem zero.

Síntese, caracterização e avaliação da capacidade bactericida de copolímeros à base de 2-vinilpiridina funcionalizados

Neste trabalho, dois copolímeros à base de 2-vinilpiridina (2Vpy), estireno (Sty) e divinilbenzeno (DVB) foram sintetizados empregando a técnica de polimerização em suspensão aquosa via radical livre. Os copolímeros com diferentes características morfológicas foram preparados variando a composição da mistura diluente, constituída por tolueno e n-heptano, solventes solvatantes e não solvatantes para as cadeias poliméricas. A caracterização estrutural desses materiais foi feita através de medidas de área específica, volume de poros, diâmetro médio de poros e densidade aparente. Além disso, esses materiais foram avaliados por microscopia ótica e eletrônica de varredura, por espectroscopia na região do infravermelho (FTIR), análise termogravimétrica (TGA) e análise elementar. Os copolímeros Sty-DVB-2Vpy foram modificados quimicamente através de reação de quaternização das unidades de 2Vpy usando dois reagentes: iodeto de metila e acrilonitrila. A quaternização dos copolímeros Sty-DVB-2Vpy foi confirmada através de espectroscopia de infravermelho, pelo aparecimento das bandas de absorção características do íon peridíneo e do grupo nitrila e também pela análise do comportamento térmico. Os produtos dessas reações foram submetidos à avaliação da capacidade bactericida através do método de contagem em placas contra suspensão de Escherichia coli. O copolímero do tipo gel quaternizado com iodeto de metila apresentou a maior ação bactericida registrada, com eficiência até a concentração de 104 células/mL. Contudo, a maioria dos materiais quaternizados não apresentou ação biocida significativa. Com o objetivo de maximizar a atividade bactericida dos materiais preparados, os copolímeros quaternizados e não quaternizados foram impregnados com iodo por meio de duas metodologias: em solução e em fase vapor. O teor de iodo incorporado foi quantificado por análise gravimétrica. Foi possível observar que os copolímeros quaternizados e impregnados com iodo se mostraram mais eficientes como agentes bactericidas que os copolímeros não funcionalizados impregnados com iodo. De uma forma geral, foi possível perceber que a ação bactericida dos polímeros é fruto da associação entre as suas características de porosidade, o grau de quaternização alcançado e o teor de iodo incorporado. Para efeito de comparação foram feitos também ensaios bactericidas com uma resina comercial à base de Sty-DVB com grupo amônio quaternário, VP OC 1950. Os testes mostraram que a resina comercial não possui atividade bactericida. A impregnação de iodo a essa resina comercial forneceu um material com ação biocida semelhante à do copolímero do tipo gel, quaternizado com iodeto de metila e impregnado com iodo

Design strategies for ultra-high efficiency photovoltaics

While concentrator photovoltaic cells have shown significant improvements in efficiency in the past ten years, once these cells are integrated into concentrating optics, connected to a power conditioning system and deployed in the field, the overall module efficiency drops to only 34 to 36%. This efficiency is impressive compared to conventional flat plate modules, but it is far short of the theoretical limits for solar energy conversion. Designing a system capable of achieving ultra high efficiency of 50% or greater cannot be achieved by refinement and iteration of current design approaches.

This thesis takes a systems approach to designing a photovoltaic system capable of 50% efficient performance using conventional diode-based solar cells. The effort began with an exploration of the limiting efficiency of spectrum splitting ensembles with 2 to 20 sub cells in different electrical configurations. Incorporating realistic non-ideal performance with the computationally simple detailed balance approach resulted in practical limits that are useful to identify specific cell performance requirements. This effort quantified the relative benefit of additional cells and concentration for system efficiency, which will help in designing practical optical systems.

Efforts to improve the quality of the solar cells themselves focused on the development of tunable lattice constant epitaxial templates. Initially intended to enable lattice matched multijunction solar cells, these templates would enable increased flexibility in band gap selection for spectrum splitting ensembles and enhanced radiative quality relative to metamorphic growth. The III-V material family is commonly used for multijunction solar cells both for its high radiative quality and for the ease of integrating multiple band gaps into one monolithic growth. The band gap flexibility is limited by the lattice constant of available growth templates. The virtual substrate consists of a thin III-V film with the desired lattice constant. The film is grown strained on an available wafer substrate, but the thickness is below the dislocation nucleation threshold. By removing the film from the growth substrate, allowing the strain to relax elastically, and bonding it to a supportive handle, a template with the desired lattice constant is formed. Experimental efforts towards this structure and initial proof of concept are presented.

Cells with high radiative quality present the opportunity to recover a large amount of their radiative losses if they are incorporated in an ensemble that couples emission from one cell to another. This effect is well known, but has been explored previously in the context of sub cells that independently operate at their maximum power point. This analysis explicitly accounts for the system interaction and identifies ways to enhance overall performance by operating some cells in an ensemble at voltages that reduce the power converted in the individual cell. Series connected multijunctions, which by their nature facilitate strong optical coupling between sub-cells, are reoptimized with substantial performance benefit.

Photovoltaic efficiency is usually measured relative to a standard incident spectrum to allow comparison between systems. Deployed in the field systems may differ in energy production due to sensitivity to changes in the spectrum. The series connection constraint in particular causes system efficiency to decrease as the incident spectrum deviates from the standard spectral composition. This thesis performs a case study comparing performance of systems over a year at a particular location to identify the energy production penalty caused by series connection relative to independent electrical connection.

I. The effects of variations in certain parameters upon the efficiency of in vivo hemodialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. II. Interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube.

Part I

Regression analyses are performed on in vivo hemodialysis data for the transfer of creatinine, urea, uric acid and inorganic phosphate to determine the effects of variations in certain parameters on the efficiency of dialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. In calculating the mass transfer rates across the membrane, the effects of cell-plasma mass transfer kinetics are considered. The concept of the effective permeability coefficient for the red cell membrane is introduced to account for these effects. A discussion of the consequences of neglecting cell-plasma kinetics, as has been done to date in the literature, is presented.

A physical model for the Kiil dialyzer is presented in order to calculate the available membrane area for mass transfer, the linear blood and dialysate velocities, and other variables. The equations used to determine the independent variables of the regression analyses are presented. The potential dependent variables in the analyses are discussed.

Regression analyses were carried out considering overall mass-transfer coefficients, dialysances, relative dialysances, and relative permeabilities for each substance as the dependent variables. The independent variables were linear blood velocity, linear dialysate velocity, the pressure difference across the membrane, the elapsed time of dialysis, the blood hematocrit, and the arterial plasma concentrations of each substance transferred. The resulting correlations are tabulated, presented graphically, and discussed. The implications of these correlations are discussed from the viewpoint of a research investigator and from the viewpoint of patient treatment.

Recommendations for further experimental work are presented.

Part II

The interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube in the wavy flow regime has been measured using resistance wave gages. The median water depth, r.m.s. wave height, wave frequency, extrema frequency, and wave velocity have been measured as functions of air and water flow rates. Reynolds numbers, Froude numbers, Weber numbers, and bulk velocities for each phase may be calculated from these measurements. No theory for wave formation and propagation available in the literature was sufficient to describe these results.

The water surface level distribution generally is not adequately represented as a stationary Gaussian process. Five types of deviation from the Gaussian process function were noted in this work. The presence of the tube walls and the relatively large interfacial shear stresses precludes the use of simple statistical analyses to describe the interfacial structure. A detailed study of the behavior of individual fluid elements near the interface may be necessary to describe adequately wavy two-phase flow in systems similar to the one used in this work.

Herramienta software para el análisis de rendimiento de redes 4G

[ES]El objetivo de este proyecto ha sido desarrollar una herramienta software que permita medir el rendimiento de redes con tecnología móvil 4G, también conocida como LTE. Para ello se ha creado un sistema software que está compuesto por una aplicación móvil y un servidor de aplicaciones. El sistema en conjunto realiza la función de recoger indicadores de calidad de la red móvil de diversa índole, que posteriormente son procesados utilizando herramientas software matemáticas, para así obtener gráficas y mapas que permiten analizar la situación y el rendimiento de una red 4G concreta. El desarrollo del software ha llegado a nivel de prototipo y se han realizado pruebas reales con él obteniendo resultados positivos de funcionamiento.

Tests of some specific effect substances in duck nutrition. Translation from: Biologisace a chemisaze vyzivy svirat 5, 43-48, 1969.]

There is a constantly increasing collection of manufactured substances, whose effectiveness in the sustenance of ducks is under investigation. The author examines the effects of some substances already previously tested and also there were examined substances which had not hitherto been studied. The use of different supplements for late autumn fattening is studied through various experiments.