Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Cash balance management: A comparison between genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimization

This work aimed to apply genetic algorithms (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) in cash balance management using Miller-Orr model, which consists in a stochastic model that does not define a single ideal point for cash balance, but an oscillation range between a lower bound, an ideal balance and an upper bound. Thus, this paper proposes the application of GA and PSO to minimize the Total Cost of cash maintenance, obtaining the parameter of the lower bound of the Miller-Orr model, using for this the assumptions presented in literature. Computational experiments were applied in the development and validation of the models. The results indicated that both the GA and PSO are applicable in determining the cash level from the lower limit, with best results of PSO model, which had not yet been applied in this type of problem.

A study of pent-up demand in ophthalmology: Divinolandia Hospital/Unicamp

Objective: To assess the waiting time for eye care identifying the number of patients with each complaint; to investigate how the waiting time may worsen the patient's condition; to check the screening of urgent cases for effectiveness; and to devise means of increasing the medical-surgical care capacity. Methods: A retrospective descriptive survey was conducted using data obtained on 12 occasions during collaborative team visits to provide eyecare services. These initiatives were designed to decrease the waiting time and to treat urgent cases that occurred on each occasion; eyecare services were provided every Saturday, in the period from June to August 2006, in 16 cities of the region covered by Conderg (Consortium for the Development of the Sao Joao da Boa Vista Administrative Region). Results: Referrals used 1,743 (87.1%) of the 2,000 places available. The most frequent diagnoses were refractive errors, with 683 cases, corresponding to 39.1% of the total, followed by cataracts, with 296 cases, corresponding to 20.9%. Of the 238 surgeries indicated, 54.6% were phakectomies. Thirty-five (2.0%) cases were considered urgent. Conclusion: The most common diagnoses made during the team visits to manage the excess demand for eyecare were refractive errors and cataracts, which, together, accounted for the majority of the cases. The Divinolandia Hospital has the necessary human and material resources to meet the demand left unattended by the local SUS network. Immediate referral of urgent cases by the primary units' screeners proved effective.

Development of an integrative cessation program for co-smokers of cigarettes and cannabis: demand analysis, program description, and acceptability

Abstract Background Tobacco and cannabis use are strongly interrelated, but current national and international cessation programs typically focus on one substance, and address the other substance either only marginally or not at all. This study aimed to identify the demand for, and describe the development and content of, the first integrative group cessation program for co-smokers of cigarettes and cannabis. Methods First, a preliminary study using expert interviews, user focus groups with (ex-)smokers, and an online survey was conducted to investigate the demand for, and potential content of, an integrative smoking cessation program (ISCP) for tobacco and cannabis co-smokers. This study revealed that both experts and co-smokers considered an ISCP to be useful but expected only modest levels of readiness for participation.Based on the findings of the preliminary study, an interdisciplinary expert team developed a course concept and a recruitment strategy. The developed group cessation program is based on current treatment techniques (such as motivational interviewing, cognitive behavioural therapy, and self-control training) and structured into six course sessions.The program was evaluated regarding its acceptability among participants and course instructors. Results Both the participants and course instructors evaluated the course positively. Participants and instructors especially appreciated the group discussions and the modules that were aimed at developing personal strategies that could be applied during simultaneous cessation of tobacco and cannabis, such as dealing with craving, withdrawal, and high-risk situations. Conclusions There is a clear demand for a double cessation program for co-users of cigarettes and cannabis, and the first group cessation program tailored for these users has been developed and evaluated for acceptability. In the near future, the feasibility of the program will be evaluated. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15248397

A study of pent-up demand in ophthalmology: Divinolândia Hospital/Unicamp

OBJECTIVE: To assess the waiting time for eye care identifying the number of patients with each complaint; to investigate how the waiting time may worsen the patient's condition; to check the screening of urgent cases for effectiveness; and to devise means of increasing the medical-surgical care capacity. METHODS: A retrospective descriptive survey was conducted using data obtained on 12 occasions during collaborative team visits to provide eyecare services. These initiatives were designed to decrease the waiting time and to treat urgent cases that occurred on each occasion; eyecare services were provided every Saturday, in the period from June to August 2006, in 16 cities of the region covered by Conderg (Consortium for the Development of the São João da Boa Vista Administrative Region). RESULTS: Referrals used 1,743 (87.1%) of the 2,000 places available. The most frequent diagnoses were refractive errors, with 683 cases, corresponding to 39.1% of the total, followed by cataracts, with 296 cases, corresponding to 20.9%. Of the 238 surgeries indicated, 54.6% were phakectomies. Thirty-five (2.0%) cases were considered urgent. CONCLUSION: The most common diagnoses made during the team visits to manage the excess demand for eyecare were refractive errors and cataracts, which, together, accounted for the majority of the cases. The Divinolândia Hospital has the necessary human and material resources to meet the demand left unattended by the local SUS network. Immediate referral of urgent cases by the primary units' screeners proved effective.

Accessibility and demand at an Emergency Care Unit: the user's perspective

AIM: To analyze the search for Emergency Care (EC) in the Western Health District of Ribeirão Preto (São Paulo), in order to identify the reasons why users turn to these services in situations that are not characterized as urgencies and emergencies. METHODS: A qualitative and descriptive study was undertaken. A guiding script was applied to 23 EC users, addressing questions related to health service accessibility and welcoming, problem solving, reason to visit the EC and care comprehensiveness. RESULTS: The subjects reported that, at the Primary Health Care services, receiving care and scheduling consultations took a long time and that the opening hours of these services coincide with their work hours. At the EC service, access to technologies and medicines was easier. CONCLUSION: Primary health care services have been unable to turn into the entry door to the health system, being replaced by emergency services, putting a significant strain on these services' capacity.

Strong iron demand during hypoxia-induced erythropoiesis is associated with down-regulation of iron-related proteins and myoglobin in human skeletal muscle

[EN] Iron is essential for oxygen transport because it is incorporated in the heme of the oxygen-binding proteins hemoglobin and myoglobin. An interaction between iron homeostasis and oxygen regulation is further suggested during hypoxia, in which hemoglobin and myoglobin syntheses have been reported to increase. This study gives new insights into the changes in iron content and iron-oxygen interactions during enhanced erythropoiesis by simultaneously analyzing blood and muscle samples in humans exposed to 7 to 9 days of high altitude hypoxia (HA). HA up-regulates iron acquisition by erythroid cells, mobilizes body iron, and increases hemoglobin concentration. However, contrary to our hypothesis that muscle iron proteins and myoglobin would also be up-regulated during HA, this study shows that HA lowers myoglobin expression by 35% and down-regulates iron-related proteins in skeletal muscle, as evidenced by decreases in L-ferritin (43%), transferrin receptor (TfR; 50%), and total iron content (37%). This parallel decrease in L-ferritin and TfR in HA occurs independently of increased hypoxia-inducible factor 1 (HIF-1) mRNA levels and unchanged binding activity of iron regulatory proteins, but concurrently with increased ferroportin mRNA levels, suggesting enhanced iron export. Thus, in HA, the elevated iron requirement associated with enhanced erythropoiesis presumably elicits iron mobilization and myoglobin down-modulation, suggesting an altered muscle oxygen homeostasis.

Significance of non‐sinking particulate organic carbon and dark CO2 fixation to heterotrophic carbon demand in the mesopelagic northeast Atlantic

[EN] It is generally assumed that sinking particulate organic carbon (POC) constitutes the main source of organic carbon supply to the deep ocean's food webs. However, a major discrepancy between the rates of sinking POC supply (collected with sediment traps) and the prokaryotic organic carbon demand (the total amount of carbon required to sustain the heterotrophic metabolism of the prokaryotes; i.e., production plus respiration, PCD) of deep-water communities has been consistently reported for the dark realm of the global ocean. While the amount of sinking POC flux declines exponentially with depth, the concentration of suspended, buoyant non-sinking POC (nsPOC; obtained with oceanographic bottles) exhibits only small variations with depth in the (sub)tropical Northeast Atlantic. Based on available data for the North Atlantic we show here that the sinking POC flux would contribute only 4–12% of the PCD in the mesopelagic realm (depending on the primary production rate in surface waters). The amount of nsPOC potentially available to heterotrophic prokaryotes in the mesopelagic realm can be partly replenished by dark dissolved inorganic carbon fixation contributing between 12% to 72% to the PCD daily. Taken together, there is evidence that the mesopelagic microheterotrophic biota is more dependent on the nsPOC pool than on the sinking POC supply. Hence, the enigmatic major mismatch between the organic carbon demand of the deep-water heterotrophic microbiota and the POC supply rates might be substantially smaller by including the potentially available nsPOC and its autochthonous production in oceanic carbon cycling models.

A GIS based model for solving the planar Huff problem considering different demand distributions and forbidden regions

[EN] In this paper, we have used Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to solve the planar Huff problem considering different demand distributions and forbidden regions. Most of the papers connected with the competitive location problems consider that the demand is aggregated in a finite set of points. In other few cases, the models suppose that the demand is distributed along the feasible region according to a functional form, mainly a uniform distribution. In this case, in addition to the discrete and uniform demand distributions we have considered that the demand is represented by a population surface model, that is, a raster map where each pixel has associated a value corresponding to the population living in the area that it covers...

Improved ground motion intensity measures for reliability-based demand analysis of structures

In Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE), evaluating the seismic performance (or seismic risk) of a structure at a designed site has gained major attention, especially in the past decade. One of the objectives in PBEE is to quantify the seismic reliability of a structure (due to the future random earthquakes) at a site. For that purpose, Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA) is utilized as a tool to estimate the Mean Annual Frequency (MAF) of exceeding a specified value of a structural Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP). This dissertation focuses mainly on applying an average of a certain number of spectral acceleration ordinates in a certain interval of periods, Sa,avg (T1,…,Tn), as scalar ground motion Intensity Measure (IM) when assessing the seismic performance of inelastic structures. Since the interval of periods where computing Sa,avg is related to the more or less influence of higher vibration modes on the inelastic response, it is appropriate to speak about improved IMs. The results using these improved IMs are compared with a conventional elastic-based scalar IMs (e.g., pseudo spectral acceleration, Sa ( T(¹)), or peak ground acceleration, PGA) and the advanced inelastic-based scalar IM (i.e., inelastic spectral displacement, Sdi). The advantages of applying improved IMs are: (i ) "computability" of the seismic hazard according to traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), because ground motion prediction models are already available for Sa (Ti), and hence it is possibile to employ existing models to assess hazard in terms of Sa,avg, and (ii ) "efficiency" or smaller variability of structural response, which was minimized to assess the optimal range to compute Sa,avg. More work is needed to assess also "sufficiency" and "scaling robustness" desirable properties, which are disregarded in this dissertation. However, for ordinary records (i.e., with no pulse like effects), using the improved IMs is found to be more accurate than using the elastic- and inelastic-based IMs. For structural demands that are dominated by the first mode of vibration, using Sa,avg can be negligible relative to the conventionally-used Sa (T(¹)) and the advanced Sdi. For structural demands with sign.cant higher-mode contribution, an improved scalar IM that incorporates higher modes needs to be utilized. In order to fully understand the influence of the IM on the seismis risk, a simplified closed-form expression for the probability of exceeding a limit state capacity was chosen as a reliability measure under seismic excitations and implemented for Reinforced Concrete (RC) frame structures. This closed-form expression is partuclarly useful for seismic assessment and design of structures, taking into account the uncertainty in the generic variables, structural "demand" and "capacity" as well as the uncertainty in seismic excitations. The assumed framework employs nonlinear Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) procedures in order to estimate variability in the response of the structure (demand) to seismic excitations, conditioned to IM. The estimation of the seismic risk using the simplified closed-form expression is affected by IM, because the final seismic risk is not constant, but with the same order of magnitude. Possible reasons concern the non-linear model assumed, or the insufficiency of the selected IM. Since it is impossibile to state what is the "real" probability of exceeding a limit state looking the total risk, the only way is represented by the optimization of the desirable properties of an IM.

A multimedia system to produce and deliver video fragments on demand on parliamentary websites

[EN]Parliamentary websites have become one of the most important windows for citizens and media to follow the activities of their legislatures and to hold parliaments to account. Therefore, most parliamentary institutions aim to provide new multimedia solutions capable of displaying video fragments on demand on plenary activities. This paper presents a multimedia system for parliamentary institutions to produce video fragments on demand through a website with linked information and public feedback that helps to explain the content shown in these fragments. A prototype implementation has been developed for the Canary Islands Parliament (Spain) and shows how traditional parliamentary streaming systems can be enhanced by the use of semantics and computer vision for video analytics...