Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

Through an examination of global climate change models combined with hydrological data on deteriorating water quality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), we elucidate the ways in which the MENA countries are vulnerable to climate-induced impacts on water resources. Adaptive governance strategies, however, remain a low priority for political leaderships in the MENA region. To date, most MENA governments have concentrated the bulk of their resources on large-scale supply side projects such as desalination, dam construction, inter-basin water transfers, tapping fossil groundwater aquifers, and importing virtual water. Because managing water demand, improving the efficiency of water use, and promoting conservation will be key ingredients in responding to climate-induced impacts on the water sector, we analyze the political, economic, and institutional drivers that have shaped governance responses. While the scholarly literature emphasizes the importance of social capital to adaptive governance, we find that many political leaders and water experts in the MENA rarely engage societal actors in considering water risks. We conclude that the key capacities for adaptive governance to water scarcity in MENA are underdeveloped. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Dynamic evolution of the alpha (α) and beta (β) keratins has accompanied integument diversification and the adaptation of birds into novel lifestyles.

BACKGROUND: Vertebrate skin appendages are constructed of keratins produced by multigene families. Alpha (α) keratins are found in all vertebrates, while beta (β) keratins are found exclusively in reptiles and birds. We have studied the molecular evolution of these gene families in the genomes of 48 phylogenetically diverse birds and their expression in the scales and feathers of the chicken. RESULTS: We found that the total number of α-keratins is lower in birds than mammals and non-avian reptiles, yet two α-keratin genes (KRT42 and KRT75) have expanded in birds. The β-keratins, however, demonstrate a dynamic evolution associated with avian lifestyle. The avian specific feather β-keratins comprise a large majority of the total number of β-keratins, but independently derived lineages of aquatic and predatory birds have smaller proportions of feather β-keratin genes and larger proportions of keratinocyte β-keratin genes. Additionally, birds of prey have a larger proportion of claw β-keratins. Analysis of α- and β-keratin expression during development of chicken scales and feathers demonstrates that while α-keratins are expressed in these tissues, the number and magnitude of expressed β-keratin genes far exceeds that of α-keratins. CONCLUSIONS: These results support the view that the number of α- and β-keratin genes expressed, the proportion of the β-keratin subfamily genes expressed and the diversification of the β-keratin genes have been important for the evolution of the feather and the adaptation of birds into multiple ecological niches.

Impact of coverage-dependent marginal costs on optimal HPV vaccination strategies.

The effectiveness of vaccinating males against the human papillomavirus (HPV) remains a controversial subject. Many existing studies conclude that increasing female coverage is more effective than diverting resources into male vaccination. Recently, several empirical studies on HPV immunization have been published, providing evidence of the fact that marginal vaccination costs increase with coverage. In this study, we use a stochastic agent-based modeling framework to revisit the male vaccination debate in light of these new findings. Within this framework, we assess the impact of coverage-dependent marginal costs of vaccine distribution on optimal immunization strategies against HPV. Focusing on the two scenarios of ongoing and new vaccination programs, we analyze different resource allocation policies and their effects on overall disease burden. Our results suggest that if the costs associated with vaccinating males are relatively close to those associated with vaccinating females, then coverage-dependent, increasing marginal costs may favor vaccination strategies that entail immunization of both genders. In particular, this study emphasizes the necessity for further empirical research on the nature of coverage-dependent vaccination costs.

MiR-215 Is Induced Post-transcriptionally via HIF-Drosha Complex and Mediates Glioma-Initiating Cell Adaptation to Hypoxia by Targeting KDM1B.

The hypoxic tumor microenvironment serves as a niche for maintaining the glioma-initiating cells (GICs) that are critical for glioblastoma (GBM) occurrence and recurrence. Here, we report that hypoxia-induced miR-215 is vital for reprograming GICs to fit the hypoxic microenvironment via suppressing the expression of an epigenetic regulator KDM1B and modulating activities of multiple pathways. Interestingly, biogenesis of miR-215 and several miRNAs is accelerated post-transcriptionally by hypoxia-inducible factors (HIFs) through HIF-Drosha interaction. Moreover, miR-215 expression correlates inversely with KDM1B while correlating positively with HIF1α and GBM progression in patients. These findings reveal a direct role of HIF in regulating miRNA biogenesis and consequently activating the miR-215-KDM1B-mediated signaling required for GIC adaptation to hypoxia.

Propuesta didáctica para la enseñanza de la probabilidad marginal y conjunta en grado undécimo

El informe que se presenta es el resultado de nuestro trabajo de investigación para optar el título de Licenciadas en educación básica con énfasis en matemáticas. Se diseñó e implementó una secuencia de actividades sobre la enseñanza de la noción de Probabilidad marginal y conjunta a 72 estudiantes de Grado Undécimo del Instituto Técnico Industrial Francisco José de Caldas, teniendo como referente la resolución de problemas y la teoría de las situaciones didácticas propuestas por Brousseau.

Does an incremental filling technique reduce polymerization shrinkage stresses

It is widely accepted that volumetric contraction and solidification during the polymerization process of restorative composites in combination with bonding to the hard tissue result in stress transfer and inward deformation of the cavity walls of the restored tooth. Deformation of the walls decreases the size of the cavity during the filling process. This fact has a profound influence on the assumption-raised and discussed in this paper-that an incremental filling technique reduces the stress effect of composite shrinkage on the tooth. Developing stress fields for different incremental filling techniques are simulated in a numerical analysis. The analysis shows that, in a restoration with a well-established bond to the tooth-as is generally desired-incremental filling techniques increase the deformation of the restored tooth. The increase is caused by the incremental deformation of the preparation, which effectively decreases the total amount of composite needed to fill the cavity. This leads to a higher-stressed tooth-composite structure. The study also shows that the assessment of intercuspal distance measurements as well as simplifications based on generalization of the shrinkage stress state cannot be sufficient to characterize the effect of polymerization shrinkage in a tooth-restoration complex. Incremental filling methods may need to be retained for reasons such as densification, adaptation, thoroughness of cure, and bond formation. However, it is very difficult to prove that incrementalization needs to be retained because of the abatement of shrinkage effects.

Upgrading automation for nuclear fuel in-core management: from the symbolic generation of configurations to the neural adaptation of heuristics

FUELCON is an expert system in nuclear engineering. Its task is optimized refueling-design, which is crucial to keep down operation costs at a plant. FUELCON proposes sets of alternative configurations of fuel-allocation; the fuel is positioned in a grid representing the core of a reactor. The practitioner of in-core fuel management uses FUELCON to generate a reasonably good configuration for the situation at hand. The domain expert, on the other hand, resorts to the system to test heuristics and discover new ones, for the task described above. Expert use involves a manual phase of revising the ruleset, based on performance during previous iterations in the same session. This paper is concerned with a new phase: the design of a neural component to carry out the revision automatically. Such an automated revision considers previous performance of the system and uses it for adaptation and learning better rules. The neural component is based on a particular schema for a symbolic to recurrent-analogue bridge, called NIPPL, and on the reinforcement learning of neural networks for the adaptation.

Case base adaptation using solution-space metrics

In this paper we propose a generalisation of the k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) retrieval method based on an error function using distance metrics in the solution and problem space. It is an interpolative method which is proposed to be effective for sparse case bases. The method applies equally to nominal, continuous and mixed domains, and does not depend upon an embedding n-dimensional space. In continuous Euclidean problem domains, the method is shown to be a generalisation of the Shepard's Interpolation method. We term the retrieval algorithm the Generalised Shepard Nearest Neighbour (GSNN) method. A novel aspect of GSNN is that it provides a general method for interpolation over nominal solution domains. The performance of the retrieval method is examined with reference to the Iris classification problem,and to a simulated sparse nominal value test problem. The introducion of a solution-space metric is shown to out-perform conventional nearest neighbours methods on sparse case bases.

Case based adaptation using interpolation over nominal values

In this paper we propose a method for interpolation over a set of retrieved cases in the adaptation phase of the case-based reasoning cycle. The method has two advantages over traditional systems: the first is that it can predict “new” instances, not yet present in the case base; the second is that it can predict solutions not present in the retrieval set. The method is a generalisation of Shepard’s Interpolation method, formulated as the minimisation of an error function defined in terms of distance metrics in the solution and problem spaces. We term the retrieval algorithm the Generalised Shepard Nearest Neighbour (GSNN) method. A novel aspect of GSNN is that it provides a general method for interpolation over nominal solution domains. The method is illustrated in the paper with reference to the Irises classification problem. It is evaluated with reference to a simulated nominal value test problem, and to a benchmark case base from the travel domain. The algorithm is shown to out-perform conventional nearest neighbour methods on these problems. Finally, GSNN is shown to improve in efficiency when used in conjunction with a diverse retrieval algorithm.

The introduction of social adaptation within evacuation modelling

In recent history, a number of tragic events have borne a consistent message; the social structures that existed prior to and during the evacuation significantly affected the decisions made and the actions adopted by the evacuating population in response to the emergency. This type of influence over behaviour has long been neglected in the modelling community. This paper is an attempt to introduce some of these considerations into evacuation models and to demonstrate their impact. To represent this type of behaviour within evacuation models a mechanism to represent the membership and position within social hierarchies is established. In addition, individuals within the social groupings are given the capacity to communicate relevant pieces of data such as the need to evacuate—impacting the response time—and the location of viable exits—impacting route selection. Furthermore, the perception and response to this information is also affected by the social circumstances in which individuals find themselves. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Exploring adaptation & self-adaptation in autonomic computing systems

This panel paper sets out to discuss what self-adaptation means, and to explore the extent to which current autonomic systems exhibit truly self-adaptive behaviour. Many of the currently cited examples are clearly adaptive, but debate remains as to what extent they are simply following prescribed adaptation rules within preset bounds, and to what extent they have the ability to truly learn new behaviour. Is there a standard test that can be applied to differentiate? Is adaptive behaviour sufficient anyway? Other autonomic computing issues are also discussed.

Model-based pilot and data power adaptation in psam with periodic delayed feedback

We consider the optimum design of pilot-symbol-assisted modulation (PSAM) schemes with feedback. The received signal is periodically fed back to the transmitter through a noiseless delayed link and the time-varying channel is modeled as a Gauss-Markov process. We optimize a lower bound on the channel capacity which incorporates the PSAM parameters and Kalman-based channel estimation and prediction. The parameters available for the capacity optimization are the data power adaptation strategy, pilot spacing and pilot power ratio, subject to an average power constraint. Compared to the optimized open-loop PSAM (i.e., the case where no feedback is provided from the receiver), our results show that even in the presence of feedback delay, the optimized power adaptation provides higher information rates at low signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) in medium-rate fading channels. However, in fast fading channels, even the presence of modest feedback delay dissipates the advantages of power adaptation.

'Marginal gothic': mediating the monstrous in British romanticism

In this paper I look at texts from the Romantic Period which strategically employ elements of the Gothic genre in what I describe as a `marginal` relationship with the Gothic canon. My intention is both to explore the way the boundaries of the genre might be extended, and to cast fresh light on some of the texts discussed, specifically in relation to the ways in which the `monstrous` is perceived and portrayed as villainy. In the first half of the paper, using Burke’s Philosophical Enquiry on the Sublime and the Beautiful as a starting point, I consider Burke’s Reflections on the Revolution in France, Godwin’s Caleb Williams, Radcliffe’s The Italian, and Blake’s The Marriage of Heaven and Hell as all in various ways examples of `marginal Gothic` that present evil doing as monstrous aberrations, also noting the contemporary reception of Beckford’s Vathek, praised in 1786 for its `accuracy and credibility`. In addition, I suggest that Wordsworth’s `Tintern Abbey` and Book VI of The Prelude provide evidence of marginal, but significant, Gothic influence that references Radcliffe’s and Burke’s explorations of a terror of the unknown. In the second half of the paper I focus on Scott’s Guy Mannering, or The Astrologer (1815) as an important example of a `marginal` Gothic novel. Scott’s reference to Vathek at a key point in his plot suggests that he had read Beckford’s novel as entirely `Gothic`. This discussion incorporates a comparison between Mannering’s youthful enthusiasm for astrological divination, and themes to be found in Shelley’s Frankenstein, notably with respect to the nature of Victor Frankenstein’s response to `old` and `new` science and medicine, and to the creation and control of Gothic monstrosity. In these and in other instances, it will be argued that the `marginal Gothic` of Scott’s novel may be read as a precursor to Shelley’s work. [From the Author]

Zinc polycarboxylate dental cement for the controlled release of an active organic substance: proof of concept

The potential of employing zinc polycarboxylate dental cement as a controlled release material has been studied. Benzalkonium chloride was used as the active ingredient, and incorporated at concentrations of 1, 2 and 3% by mass within the cement. At these levels, there was no observable effect on the speed of setting. Release was followed using an ion-selective electrode to determine changes in chloride ion concentration with time. This technique showed that the additive was released when the cured cement was placed in water, with release occurring by a diffusion mechanism for the first 3 h, but continuing beyond that for up to 1 week. Diffusion coefficients were in the range 5.62 × 10(−6) cm(2) s(−1) (for 1% concentration) to 10.90 × 10(−6) cm(2) s(−1) (for 3% concentration). Up to 3% of the total loading of benzalkonium chloride was released from the zinc polycarboxylate after a week, which is similar to that found in previous studies with glass-ionomer cement. It is concluded that zinc polycarboxylate cement is capable of acting as a useful material for the controlled release of active organic compounds.

The influence of alkali metal chlorides on the loss of water from glass-ionomer dental cements

The water loss behaviour of a clinical glass-ionomer dental cement has been studied with and without the addition of alkali metal chlorides. Dehydrating conditions were provided by placing specimens in a desiccator over concentrated sulphuric acid. Cements were prepared using either pure water or an aqueous solution of metal chloride (LiCl, NaCl, KCl) at 1.0 mol/dm(3). In addition, NaCl at 0.5 mol/dm(3) was also used to fabricate cements. Disc-shaped specimens of size 6 mm diameter x 2 mm thickness were made, six performulation, and cured at 37 degrees C for 1 hour They were then exposed to desiccating conditions, and the mass measured at regular intervals. All formulations were found to lose water in a diffusion process that equilibrated after approximately 3 weeks. Diffusion coefficients ranged from 2.27 (0.13) x 10(9) with no additive to 1.85 (0.07) x 10(9) m(2)/s with 1.0 mol/dm(3) KCl. For the salts, diffusion coefficients decreased in the order LiCl > NaCl > KCl. There was no statistically significant difference between the diffusion coefficients for 1.0 and 0.5 mol/dm(3) NaCl. For all salts at 1.0 mol/dm(3) and also additive-free cements, equilibrium losses were, with statistical limits, the same, ranging from 6.23 to 6.34%. On the other hand, 0.5 mol/dm(3) NaCl lost significantly more water 7.05%.