Rainfall estimation by rain gauge-radar combination: a concurrent multiplicative-additive approach

A procedure (concurrent multiplicative-additive objective analysis scheme [CMA-OAS]) is proposed for operational rainfall estimation using rain gauges and radar data. On the basis of a concurrent multiplicative-additive (CMA) decomposition of the spatially nonuniform radar bias, within-storm variability of rainfall and fractional coverage of rainfall are taken into account. Thus both spatially nonuniform radar bias, given that rainfall is detected, and bias in radar detection of rainfall are handled. The interpolation procedure of CMA-OAS is built on Barnes' objective analysis scheme (OAS), whose purpose is to estimate a filtered spatial field of the variable of interest through a successive correction of residuals resulting from a Gaussian kernel smoother applied on spatial samples. The CMA-OAS, first, poses an optimization problem at each gauge-radar support point to obtain both a local multiplicative-additive radar bias decomposition and a regionalization parameter. Second, local biases and regionalization parameters are integrated into an OAS to estimate the multisensor rainfall at the ground level. The procedure is suited to relatively sparse rain gauge networks. To show the procedure, six storms are analyzed at hourly steps over 10,663 km2. Results generally indicated an improved quality with respect to other methods evaluated: a standard mean-field bias adjustment, a spatially variable adjustment with multiplicative factors, and ordinary cokriging.

Chlorpropamide treatment restores the reduced carrageenan-induced paw edema and pleural exudate volume in diabetic rats

Objective and design: Knowing that hyperglycemia is a hallmark of vascular dysfunction in diabetes and that neonatal streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats (n-STZ) present reduced inflammatory response, we decided to evaluate the effect of chlorpropamide-lowered blood glucose levels on carrageenan-induced rat paw edema and pleural exudate in n-STZ. Materials: Diabetes was induced by STZ injection (160 mg/kg, ip) in neonates (2-day-old) Wistar rats. Treatment: n-STZ diabetic rats were treated with chlorpropamide (200 mg/kg, 15 d, by gavage) 8 weeks after STZ injection. Methods: Carrageenan-induced paw edema and pleural exudate volumes were assessed concomitantly with peripheral and exudate leukocyte count. We also evaluated the expression of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) in lungs of all experimental groups. Results: Chlorpropamide treatment improved glucose tolerance, beta-cell function (assessed by HOMA-beta), corrected paw edema, and pleural exudate volume in n-STZ. Neither leukocyte count nor iNOS expression were affected by diabetes or by chlorpropamide treatment. Conclusion: Chlorpropamide treatment by restoring beta-cell function, reducing blood sugar levels, and improving glucose tolerance might be contributing to the correction of the reduced inflammatory response tested as paw edema and pleural exudate in n-STZ diabetic rats.

Estudo das relações de paridade de juros para a economia brasileira no período recente

O objetivo deste trabalho é verificar se o ajustamento das condições de paridade de juros por expectativa do mercado (paridade descoberta) e por prêmios de risco (paridades coberta e descoberta) leva à validação da relação de não-arbitragem subjacente, ou pelo menos a resultados econométricos mais próximos de sua validação. Para isso, combinamos taxas de retornos de instrumentos de renda fixa domésticos e norte-americanos e aplicamos o arcabouço econométrico de séries de tempo. Como primeiro passo de investigação, aplicamos a paridade de juros (descoberta e coberta) na sua forma tradicional. No passo seguinte aplicamos os testes econométricos às condições de paridade ajustadas por um prêmio de risco. No caso da PDJ, não obtivemos resultados satisfatórios, mesmo ajustando pelos prêmios de risco. Esse ajuste propiciou uma mudança nos sinais dos coeficientes na direção correta, mas a magnitude do coeficiente da desvalorização cambial efetiva passou a destoar bastante da magnitude das outras séries. Apesar de termos obtido a validade da PCJ na forma tradicional, não esperaríamos este resultado, pois isso implicaria que o prêmio de risco país seria nulo para este período. Ajustando a PCJ pelo prêmio de risco de não-pagamento passa-se a não obter co integração entre as séries, ou seja, o prêmio de risco de não-pagamento teria um comportamento independente do prêmio futuro e do diferencial de juros. As possíveis causas para a não obtenção dos resultados esperados são: intervalo amostraI menor que 3 anos, erro de medida dos dados de survey ou tentativa do Banco Central de controlar a taxa de câmbio nominal e as taxas de juros domésticas simultaneamente.

Essays on finance and macroeconomy

I study the asset-pricing implications in an cnviromncnt with feedback traders and rational arbitrageurs. Feedback traders are defined as possible naive investors who buy after a raise in prices and sell after a drop in prices. I consider two types of feedback strategies: (1) short-term (SF), motivated by institutional rulcs as top-losscs and margin calls and (2) long-tcrm (LF), motivated by representativeness bias from non-sophisticated investors. Their presence in the market follows a stochastic regime swift process. Short lived assumption for the arbitrageurs prevents the correction of the misspricing generated by feedback strategies. The estimated modcl using US data suggests that the regime switching is able to capture the time varying autocorrclation of returns. The segregation of feedback types helps to identify the long term component that otherwise would not show up due to the large movements implied by the SF typc. The paper also has normativo implications for practioners since it providos a methodology to identify mispricings driven by feedback traders.

The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble?

A forte alta dos imóveis no Brasil nos últimos anos iniciou um debate sobre a possível existência de uma bolha especulativa. Dada a recente crise do crédito nos Estados Unidos, é factível questionar se a situação atual no Brasil pode ser comparada à crise americana. Considerando argumentos quantitativos e fundamentais, examina-se o contexto imobiliário brasileiro e questiona-se a sustentabilidade em um futuro próximo. Primeiramente, analisou-se a taxa de aluguel e o nível de acesso aos imóveis e também utilizou-se um modelo do custo real para ver se o mercado está em equilíbrio o não. Depois examinou-se alguns fatores fundamentais que afetam o preço dos imóveis – oferta e demanda, crédito e regulação, fatores culturais – para encontrar evidências que justificam o aumento dos preços dos imóveis. A partir dessas observações tentou-se chegar a uma conclusão sobre a evolução dos preços no mercado imobiliário brasileiro. Enquanto os dados sugerem que os preços dos imóveis estão supervalorizados em comparação ao preço dos aluguéis, há evidências de uma legítima demanda por novos imóveis na emergente classe média brasileira. Um risco maior pode estar no mercado de crédito, altamente alavancado em relação ao consumidor brasileiro. No entanto, não se encontrou evidências que sugerem mais do que uma temporária estabilização ou correção no preço dos imóveis.

Problemas nas "fronteiras": um caso para ensino sobre o Programa Ciência Sem Fronteiras

Este caso para ensino enfoca o estágio de implementação de uma política pública de internacionalização do ensino superior no Brasil por meio do programa Ciência sem Fronteiras. A percepção desse programa por parte de alguns de seus beneficiários mostra que o programa enfrenta alguns problemas de gestão. Por conseguinte, o objetivo deste caso é levar o aluno de Administração Pública (de graduação ou de pós-graduação) a tomar decisões gerenciais para solucionar esses problemas após a análise e a avaliação deles. O caso visa a levar os estudantes a pensar a implementação da política pública do ponto de vista de seus protagonistas, isto é, dentro da visão de que os formuladores precisam também antecipar-se a potenciais problemas e corrigi-los, se não antes da implementação, pari passu com ela. Quer isso dizer que pretende atuar na formação de gestores do processo de implementação, instrumentalizando a correção de rumos mediante a captura das impressões dos alunos, na medida em que a iniciativa é implementada.

Desenvolvimento de um sistema misto de pasta à base de geopolímero e cimento portland para correção de perda de circulação

The materials engineering includes processes and products involving several areas of engineering, allowing them to prepare materials that fulfill the needs of various new products. In this case, this work aims to study a system composed of cement paste and geopolymers, which can contribute to solving an engineering problem that directly involves the exploitation of oil wells subject to loss of circulation. To correct it, has been already proposed the use of granular materials, fibers, reducing the drilling fluid or cement paste density and even surface and downhole mixed systems. In this work, we proposed the development of a slurry mixed system, the first was a cement-based slurry and the second a geopolymer-based slurry. The cement-based slurry was formulated with low density and extenders, 12.0 ppg (1.438 g/cm ³), showing great thixotropic characteristics. It was added nano silica at concentrations of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 gps (66.88, 133.76 and 200.64 L/m3) and CaCl2 at concentrations of 0.5, 1, 0 and 1.5%. The second system is a geopolymer-based paste formulated from molar ratios of 3.5 (nSiO2/nAl2O3), 0.27 (nK2O/nSiO2), 1.07 (nK2O/nAl2O3) and 13.99 (nH2O/nK2O). Finally, we performed a mixture of these two systems, for their application for correction of circulation lost. To characterize the raw materials, XRD, XRF, FTIR analysis and titration were performed. The both systems were characterized in tests based on API RP10B. Compressive strength tests were conducted after curing for 24 hours, 7 and 28 days at 58 °C on the cement-based system and the geopolymer-based system. From the mixtures have been performed mixability tests and micro structural characterizations (XRD, SEM and TG). The results showed that the nano silica, when combined with CaCl2 modified the rheological properties of the cement slurry and from the concentration of 1.5 gpc (200.64 L / m³) it was possible to obtain stable systems. The system mixture caused a change in the microstructure of the material by favoring the rate of geopolymer formation to hinder the C3S phase hydration, thus, the production of CSH phases and Portlandite were harmed. Through the mixability tests it can be concluded that the system, due to reduced setting time of the mixture, can be applied to plug lost circulation zones when mixed downhole

Estimativas de mortalidade para a região nordeste do Brasil em 2010: uma associação do método demográfico equação geral de balanceamento, com o estimador bayesiano empírico

One of the greatest challenges of demography, nowadays, is to obtain estimates of mortality, in a consistent manner, mainly in small areas. The lack of this information, hinders public health actions and leads to impairment of quality of classification of deaths, generating concern on the part of demographers and epidemiologists in obtaining reliable statistics of mortality in the country. In this context, the objective of this work is to obtain estimates of deaths adjustment factors for correction of adult mortality, by States, meso-regions and age groups in the northeastern region, in 2010. The proposal is based on two lines of observation: a demographic one and a statistical one, considering also two areas of coverage in the States of the Northeast region, the meso-regions, as larger areas and counties, as small areas. The methodological principle is to use the General Equation and Balancing demographic method or General Growth Balance to correct the observed deaths, in larger areas (meso-regions) of the states, since they are less prone to breakage of methodological assumptions. In the sequence, it will be applied the statistical empirical Bayesian estimator method, considering as sum of deaths in the meso-regions, the death value corrected by the demographic method, and as reference of observation of smaller area, the observed deaths in small areas (counties). As results of this combination, a smoothing effect on the degree of coverage of deaths is obtained, due to the association with the empirical Bayesian Estimator, and the possibility of evaluating the degree of coverage of deaths by age groups at counties, meso-regions and states levels, with the advantage of estimete adjustment factors, according to the desired level of aggregation. The results grouped by State, point to a significant improvement of the degree of coverage of deaths, according to the combination of the methods with values above 80%. Alagoas (0.88), Bahia (0.90), Ceará (0.90), Maranhão (0.84), Paraíba (0.88), Pernambuco (0.93), Piauí (0.85), Rio Grande do Norte (0.89) and Sergipe (0.92). Advances in the control of the registry information in the health system, linked to improvements in socioeconomic conditions and urbanization of the counties, in the last decade, provided a better quality of information registry of deaths in small areas

Implante de cartilagem auricular autóloga no reparo de desvio de pênis de bovinos

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Tributação, finanças públicas e política fiscal: uma análise sob a óptica do direito e economia

In the Brazilian legal scenario, the study of taxation has traditionally been restricted to positivist analysis, concerned with investigating the formal aspects of the tax legal rule. Despite its relevance to the formation of the national doctrine of tax, such formalist tradition limits the discipline, separating it from reality and the socioeconomic context in which the Tax Law is inserted. Thus, the proposal of the dissertation is to examine the fundamentals and nature of taxation and tax legal rules from the perspective of Law and Economics (Economic Analysis of Law). For this purpose, the work initially reconnects the Tax Law and Science of Finance (or Public Finance) and Fiscal Policy, undertaking not only a legal analysis, but also economic and financial analysis of the theme. The Economics of Public Sector (or Modern Public Finance) will contribute to the research through topics such as market failures and economic theory of taxation, which are essential to an economic approach to Tax Law. The core of the work lies in the application of Law and Economics instruments in the study of taxation, analyzing the effects of tax rules on the economic system. Accordingly, the dissertation examines the fundamental assumptions that make up the Economic Analysis of Law (as the concept of economic efficiency and its relation to equity), relating them to the tax phenomenon. Due to the nature of the Brazilian legal system, any worth investigation or approach, including Law and Economics, could not pass off the Constitution. Thus, the constitutional rules will serve as a limit and a prerequisite for the application of Law and Economics on taxation, particularly the rules related to property rights, freedom, equality and legal certainty. The relationship between taxation and market failures receives prominent role, particularly due to its importance to the Law and Economics, as well as to the role that taxation plays in the correction of these failures. In addition to performing a review of taxation under the approach of Economic Analysis of Law, the research also investigates the reality of Brazilian tax system, applying the concepts developed in relevant cases and issues to the national scene, such as the relationship between taxation and development, the compliance costs of taxation, the tax evasion and the tax enforcement procedure. Given the above, it is intended to lay the groundwork for a general theory of Economic Analysis of Tax Law, contextualizing it with the Brazilian tax system

Ativismo ministerial na implementação de políticas públicas

The research aims to analyze the reasons and the unique role of prosecutors in the promotion of public policies. The opening lines deal with the evolution and expansion of the general theory of the fundamental rights in the international and national levels and that have led to the creation of a welfare state concerned with carrying out positive actions which aim at the community well-being. Thus, it is clear that, after the uneven development of the Brazilian democracy, the Constitution of 1988 not only has erected to a state socially responsible, but also built a system of guarantees which highlights the significant expansion of the Powers of the Public Ministry and has now taken an outstanding position in regard to collective rights, allowing, at the same time, its members to perform the syndication of state actions, particularly public policies, correcting the course of these administrative processes in the presence of poor management and inactivity of the public administrator when acting in defense of fundamental rights. This ministerial activism, even facing the obstacles and boundaries submitted to its pursuit, has shown an increase in actions that culminated, in the last ten years, in a significant number of judicial and extrajudicial measures that indicated the correction of public policies and actions in areas of health, education, housing and the environment. In this process of monitoring and doing, the important role of the other social characters is highlighted, especially the one of the citizen who is responsible for most of the complaints that start the initiatives of the Public Ministry and that can be deployed through a significant list of judicial and extrajudicial instruments, especially the important procedure that allows the hearing and participation of the involved in the implementation of public policies, enabling a collective even a consensual solution of the matter generated among the Public Administration. Given these initiatives, the ministerial activism has established itself as a movement of its own characteristics, aimed to guarantee the fundamental rights, especially when these are not targeted by state actions that should contribute to the achievement of the democratic state of law idealized by the Federal Constitution without any distortion of direction. Nevertheless, this activism still seeks for its full accomplishment in the practical world

Direito fundamental à saúde: parâmetros e alternativas para sua concretização no Brasil

If, on one hand, only with the 1988 Federal Constitution the right to health began to receive the treatment of authentic fundamental social right; on the other, it is certain since then, the level of concretization reached as to such right depicts a mismatch between the constitutional will and the will of the rulers. That is because, despite the inherent gradualness of the process of concretization of the fundamental social rights, the Brazilian reality, marked by a picture of true chaos on public health routinely reported on the evening news, denatures the priority status constitutionally drew for the right to health, demonstrating, thus, that there is a clear deficit in this process, which must be corrected. This concern regarding the problem of the concretization of the social rights, in turn, is underlined when one speaks of the right to health, since such right, due to its intimate connection with the right to life and human dignity, ends up assuming a position of primacy among the social rights, presenting itself as an imperative right, since its perfect fruition becomes an essential condition for the potential enjoyment of the remaining social rights. From such premises, this paper aims to provide a proposal for the correction of this problem based upon the defense of an active role of the Judiciary in the concretization of the right to health as long as grounded to objective and solid parameters that come to correct, with legal certainty, the named deficit and to avoid the side effects and distortions that are currently beheld when the Judiciary intends to intervene in the matter. For that effect, emerges as flagship of this measure a proposition of an existential minimum specific to the right to health that, taking into account both the constitutionally priority points relating to this relevant right, as well as the very logic of the structuring of the Sistema Único de Saúde - SUS inserted within the core of the public health policies developed in the country, comes to contribute to a judicialization of the subject more in alignment with the ideals outlined in the 1988 Constitution. Furthermore, in the same intent to seek a concretization of the right to health in harmony with the constitutional priority inherent to this material right, the research alerts to the need to undertake a restructuring in the form of organization of the Boards of Health in order to enforce the constitutional guideline of SUS community participation, as well as the importance of establishing a new culture budget in the country, with the Constitution as a compass, pass accurately portray a special prioritization directed constitutional social rights, especially the right to health

Variáveis biométricas da cana-de-açúcar fertilizada com resíduos orgânico e industrial e irrigada com água servida e potável

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Rectal atresia in a newborn donkey

P>A case of a type I rectal atresia (also known as membranous rectal atresia) in a newborn donkey is reported. Clinical examination, survey radiographs and barium enema radiographs suggested rectal atresia. An exploratory laparotomy was performed; however, surgical correction of the defect was not possible due to the narrow pelvic cavity. Euthanasia was performed. At necropsy, it was possible to observe a fibrous cord connecting the small colon to a residual rectal ampulla, which opened to a normal anus. The radiographic and anatomical characteristics enabled the classification of the defect as type I rectal atresia, which is a rare congenital anomaly that is difficult to correct through surgery. This report contributes to the study of rectal atresia in newborn equids, alerts for the occurrence in donkeys and is, to our knowledge, the first to be reported in this species in Brazil.

Uso da grade aradora superpesada, pesada e arado de discos na incorporação de calcário em profundidade e na produção de milho

Este trabalho teve o objetivo de avaliar o efeito dos modos de incorporação de calcário na correção da acidez no perfil do solo e na produção do milho. Para tanto, foi conduzido um experimento em Latossolo Vermelho Distrófico, textura argilosa, em Uberlândia - MG, no período de maio de 1995 a março de 1997. O delineamento experimental foi em esquema de parcelas subdivididas. As parcelas principais foram constituídas pelos modos de incorporação do calcário: grade aradora pesada (14 discos de 0,86 m) e grade niveladora (60 discos de 0,56 m); arado de disco (4 discos de 0,66 m) e grade niveladora; grade aradora superpesada (14 discos de 0,86 m) e grade niveladora; as subparcelas foram as doses de calcário dolomítico: 0; 6 e 9,2 t ha-1. O modo de incorporação do calcário afetou a eficiência da calagem no perfil do solo. A gradagem pesada não foi adequada para a incorporação do calcário. A aração com arado de disco mais gradagem niveladora teve desempenho satisfatório, atingindo até 0,20 m de profundidade. A gradagem com grade aradora superpesada proporcionou maior uniformidade e profundidade de incorporação, com neutralização da acidez do solo até 0,30 m de profundidade. O milho respondeu linearmente à aplicação do calcário, e o modo alternativo de incorporação pela gradagem com grade superpesada proporcionou maior produção.