Accuracy vs. simplicity: a complex trade-off

Inductive learning aims at finding general rules that hold true in a database. Targeted learning seeks rules for the predictions of the value of a variable based on the values of others, as in the case of linear or non-parametric regression analysis. Non-targeted learning finds regularities without a specific prediction goal. We model the product of non-targeted learning as rules that state that a certain phenomenon never happens, or that certain conditions necessitate another. For all types of rules, there is a trade-off between the rule's accuracy and its simplicity. Thus rule selection can be viewed as a choice problem, among pairs of degree of accuracy and degree of complexity. However, one cannot in general tell what is the feasible set in the accuracy-complexity space. Formally, we show that finding out whether a point belongs to this set is computationally hard. In particular, in the context of linear regression, finding a small set of variables that obtain a certain value of R2 is computationally hard. Computational complexity may explain why a person is not always aware of rules that, if asked, she would find valid. This, in turn, may explain why one can change other people's minds (opinions, beliefs) without providing new information.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Seroprevalence among Inmates of the Penitentiary Complex of the Region of Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

Six hundred and ninety three male inmates from three penitentiaries, two (A and B) maximum-security systems and one (C) minimum-security facility, located in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil were studied for the presence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibodies, using a cross-sectional design. The search for anti-HIV antibodies in 693 samples of sera collected was carried out by two serological tests: (a) the Microparticle enzyme immunoassay-HIV-1 and HIV-2 (MEIA) (Abbott Laboratories) and (b) the Western Blot-HIV-1 (WB) (Cambridge Biotech Corporation) to confirm positive results with MEIA. Sera reactivity for HIV antibodies was 14.4%. The highest frequency of anti-HIV antibodies was found in the A and B maximum-security prisons: 17% and 21.5%, respectively. In prison C, the frequency of reagents was 10.9%. Seventy three inmates, initially negative in the MEIA test, were checked again five and seven months later. Three of them, all from the maximum-security facilities, became reactive in the MEIA test, with confirmation in the WB, suggesting that serological conversion had occurred after imprisonment.

Dynamical systems of type (m,n) and their C*-algebras

Given positive integers n and m, we consider dynamical systems in which n copies of a topological space is homeomorphic to m copies of that same space. The universal such system is shown to arise naturally from the study of a C*-algebra we denote by Om;n, which in turn is obtained as a quotient of the well known Leavitt C*-algebra Lm;n, a process meant to transform the generating set of partial isometries of Lm;n into a tame set. Describing Om;n as the crossed-product of the universal (m; n) -dynamical system by a partial action of the free group Fm+n, we show that Om;n is not exact when n and m are both greater than or equal to 2, but the corresponding reduced crossed-product, denoted Or m;n, is shown to be exact and non-nuclear. Still under the assumption that m; n &= 2, we prove that the partial action of Fm+n is topologically free and that Or m;n satisfies property (SP) (small projections). We also show that Or m;n admits no finite dimensional representations. The techniques developed to treat this system include several new results pertaining to the theory of Fell bundles over discrete groups.

Information systems for water resources management improvement in developing countries

Water resources management, as also water service provision projects in developing countries have difficulties to take adequate decisions due to scarce reliable information, and a lack of proper information managing. Some appropriate tools need to be developed in order to improve decision making to improve water management and access of the poorest, through the design of Decision Support Systems (DSS). On the one side, a DSS for developing co-operation projects on water access improvement has been developed. Such a tool has specific context constrains (structure of the system, software requirements) and needs (Logical Framework Approach monitoring, organizational-learning, accountability and evaluation) that shall be considered for its design. Key aspects for its successful implementation have appeared to be a participatory design of the system and support of the managerial positions at the inception phase. A case study in Tanzania was conducted, together with the Spanish NGO ONGAWA – Ingeniería para el Desarrollo. On the other side, DSS are required also to improve decision making on water management resources in order to achieve a sustainable development that not only improves the living conditions of the population in developing countries, but that also does not hinder opportunities of the poorest on those context. A DSS made to fulfil these requirements shall be using information from water resources modelling, as also on the environment and the social context. Through the research, a case study has been conducted in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, an endhorreic basin 160 km south of Addis Ababa. There, water has been modelled using ArcSWAT, a physically based model which can assess the impact of land management practices on large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions over long periods of time. Moreover, governance on water and environment as also the socioeconomic context have been studied.

Comparative study and identification of potent eukaryotic transcriptional repressors in gene switch systems.

In mammalian cells, proper gene regulation is achieved by the complex interplay of transcription factors that activate or repress gene expression by binding to the regulatory regions of target promoters. While transcriptional activators have been extensively characterised and classified into functional groups, relatively little is known about the comparative strength and cell type-specificity of transcriptional repressors. Here, we have compared the ability of a series of eukaryotic repression domains to silence basal and activated transcription. A series of the most potent repression domains was further tested in the context of a gene therapy gene-switch system in various cell types. The results indicate that the analysed repression domains exert varying silencing activities in different promoter contexts. Furthermore, their potential for gene silencing varies also depending on the cellular context. When multimerised within one chimeric repressor protein, particular combinations of repressor domains were found to display synergistic repressing effects and efficient repression in a panel of cell lines. This approach thus allowed the identification of transcriptional repressors that are both potent and versatile in terms of cellular specificity as a basis for gene switch systems.

An experimental study on the shallow-level migmatization of ferrogabbros from the Fuerteventura Basal Complex, Canary Islands

Spectacular shallow-level migmatization of ferrogabbroic rocks occurs in a metamorphic contact aureole of a gabbroic pluton of the Tierra Mala massif (TM) on Fuerteventura (Canary Islands). In order to improve our knowledge of the low pressure melting behavior of gabbroic rocks and to constrain the conditions of migmatization of the TM gabbros, we performed partial melting experiments on a natural ferrogabbro, which is assumed as protolith of the migmatites. The experiments were performed in an internally heated pressure vessel (IHPV) at 200 MPa, 930-1150 degreesC at relatively oxidizing conditions. Distinct amounts of water were added to the charge. From 930 to 1000 degreesC, the observed experimental phases are plagioclase (An(60-70)), clinopyroxene, amphibole (titanian magnesiohastingsites), two Fe-Ti oxides, and a basaltic, K-poor melt. Above 1000 degreesC, amphibole is no longer stable. The first melts are very rich in non-native plagioclase (>70 wt.%). This indicates that at the beginning of partial melting plagioclase is the major phase which is consumed to produce melt. In the experiments, plagioclase is stable up to high temperatures (1060 degreesC) showing increasing An content with temperature. This is not compatible with the natural migmatites, in which An-rich plagioclase is absent in the melanosomes, while amphibole is stable. Our results show that the partial melting of the natural rocks cannot be regarded as an ``in-situ'' process that occurred in a closed system. Considerable amounts of alkalis probably transported by water-rich fluids, derived from the mafic pluton underplating the TM gabbro, were necessary to drive the melting reaction out of the stability range of plagioclase. A partial melting experiment with a migmatite gabbro showing typical ``in-situ'' textures as starting material supports this assumption. Crystallization experiments performed at 1000 degreesC on a glass of the fitised ferrogabbro with different water contents added to the charge show that generally high water activities could be achieved (crystallization of amphibole), independently of the bulk water content, even in a system with very low initial bulk water content (0.3 wt.%). Increasing water contents produce plagioclase richer in An, reduces the modal proportion of plagioclase in the crystallizing assemblage and extends the melt fraction. High melt fractions of >30 wt.% could only be observed in systems with high bulk water contents (> - 2 wt.%). This indicates that the migmatites were generated under water-rich conditions (probably water-saturated), since those migmatites, which are characterized as ``in-situ'' formations, show generally high amounts of leucosomes (>30 wt.%). (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recommender System Based on Consumer Product Reviews

Consumer reviews, opinions and shared experiences in the use of a product is a powerful source of information about consumer preferences that can be used in recommender systems. Despite the importance and value of such information, there is no comprehensive mechanism that formalizes the opinions selection and retrieval process and the utilization of retrieved opinions due to the difficulty of extracting information from text data. In this paper, a new recommender system that is built on consumer product reviews is proposed. A prioritizing mechanism is developed for the system. The proposed approach is illustrated using the case study of a recommender system for digital cameras

Interacting software-agents to support a kind of expert supervision systems

Expert supervision systems are software applications specially designed to automate process monitoring. The goal is to reduce the dependency on human operators to assure the correct operation of a process including faulty situations. Construction of this kind of application involves an important task of design and development in order to represent and to manipulate process data and behaviour at different degrees of abstraction for interfacing with data acquisition systems connected to the process. This is an open problem that becomes more complex with the number of variables, parameters and relations to account for the complexity of the process. Multiple specialised modules tuned to solve simpler tasks that operate under a co-ordination provide a solution. A modular architecture based on concepts of software agents, taking advantage of the integration of diverse knowledge-based techniques, is proposed for this purpose. The components (software agents, communication mechanisms and perception/action mechanisms) are based on ICa (Intelligent Control architecture), software middleware supporting the build-up of applications with software agent features

N-dimensional dynamical systems exploiting instabilities in full

We report experimental and numerical results showing how certain N-dimensional dynamical systems are able to exhibit complex time evolutions based on the nonlinear combination of N-1 oscillation modes. The experiments have been done with a family of thermo-optical systems of effective dynamical dimension varying from 1 to 6. The corresponding mathematical model is an N-dimensional vector field based on a scalar-valued nonlinear function of a single variable that is a linear combination of all the dynamic variables. We show how the complex evolutions appear associated with the occurrence of successive Hopf bifurcations in a saddle-node pair of fixed points up to exhaust their instability capabilities in N dimensions. For this reason the observed phenomenon is denoted as the full instability behavior of the dynamical system. The process through which the attractor responsible for the observed time evolution is formed may be rather complex and difficult to characterize. Nevertheless, the well-organized structure of the time signals suggests some generic mechanism of nonlinear mode mixing that we associate with the cluster of invariant sets emerging from the pair of fixed points and with the influence of the neighboring saddle sets on the flow nearby the attractor. The generation of invariant tori is likely during the full instability development and the global process may be considered as a generalized Landau scenario for the emergence of irregular and complex behavior through the nonlinear superposition of oscillatory motions

Preservation of an extreme transient geotherm in the Raft River detachment shear zone

Extensional detachment systems separate hot footwalls from cool hanging walls, but the degree to which this thermal gradient is the product of ductile or brittle deformation or a preserved original transient geotherm is unclear. Oxygen isotope thermometry using recrystallized quartz-muscovite pairs indicates a smooth thermal gradient (140 degrees C/100 m) across the gently dipping, quartzite-dominated detachment zone that bounds the Raft River core complex in northwest Utah (United States). Hydrogen isotope values of muscovite (delta D-Ms similar to-100 parts per thousand) and fluid inclusions in quartz (delta D-Fluid similar to-85 parts per thousand) indicate the presence of meteoric fluids during detachment dynamics. Recrystallized grain-shape fabrics and quartz c-axis fabric patterns reveal a large component of coaxial strain (pure shear), consistent with thinning of the detachment section. Therefore, the high thermal gradient preserved in the Raft River detachment reflects the transient geotherm that developed owing to shearing, thinning, and the potentially prominent role of convective flow of surface fluids.

Web-based Implementation of Winter Maintenance Decision Support System Using GIS and Remote Sensing, May 2005

Winter maintenance, particularly snow removal and the stress of snow removal materials on public structures, is an enormous budgetary burden on municipalities and nongovernmental maintenance organizations in cold climates. Lately, geospatial technologies such as remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and decision support tools are roviding a valuable tool for planning snow removal operations. A few researchers recently used geospatial technologies to develop winter maintenance tools. However, most of these winter maintenance tools, while having the potential to address some of these information needs, are not typically placed in the hands of planners and other interested stakeholders. Most tools are not constructed with a nontechnical user in mind and lack an easyto-use, easily understood interface. A major goal of this project was to implement a web-based Winter Maintenance Decision Support System (WMDSS) that enhances the capacity of stakeholders (city/county planners, resource managers, transportation personnel, citizens, and policy makers) to evaluate different procedures for managing snow removal assets optimally. This was accomplished by integrating geospatial analytical techniques (GIS and remote sensing), the existing snow removal asset management system, and webbased spatial decision support systems. The web-based system was implemented using the ESRI ArcIMS ActiveX Connector and related web technologies, such as Active Server Pages, JavaScript, HTML, and XML. The expert knowledge on snow removal procedures is gathered and integrated into the system in the form of encoded business rules using Visual Rule Studio. The system developed not only manages the resources but also provides expert advice to assist complex decision making, such as routing, optimal resource allocation, and monitoring live weather information. This system was developed in collaboration with Black Hawk County, IA, the city of Columbia, MO, and the Iowa Department of transportation. This product was also demonstrated for these agencies to improve the usability and applicability of the system.

@neurIST infrastructure for advanced disease management through integration of heterogeneous data, computing, and complex processing services

The increasing volume of data describing humandisease processes and the growing complexity of understanding, managing, and sharing such data presents a huge challenge for clinicians and medical researchers. This paper presents the@neurIST system, which provides an infrastructure for biomedical research while aiding clinical care, by bringing together heterogeneous data and complex processing and computing services. Although @neurIST targets the investigation and treatment of cerebral aneurysms, the system’s architecture is generic enough that it could be adapted to the treatment of other diseases.Innovations in @neurIST include confining the patient data pertaining to aneurysms inside a single environment that offers cliniciansthe tools to analyze and interpret patient data and make use of knowledge-based guidance in planning their treatment. Medicalresearchers gain access to a critical mass of aneurysm related data due to the system’s ability to federate distributed informationsources. A semantically mediated grid infrastructure ensures that both clinicians and researchers are able to seamlessly access andwork on data that is distributed across multiple sites in a secure way in addition to providing computing resources on demand forperforming computationally intensive simulations for treatment planning and research.

Long-Range Goals for Iowa's Criminal& Junvenile Justice Systems, 2005

The attached plan builds upon work done over the last decade. The first plan developed after the creation of the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning in 1986 was issued in 1990 and annually updated through 1994. Since 1992, the CJJPAC has been required to coordinate their planning activities with those of the Iowa Juvenile Justice Advisory Council (JJAC). In 1995, these two councils developed a new plan consisting of a set of long-range justice system goals to assist policy makers and justice system practitioners as they plan and operate the justice system through the next twenty years. The statutory mandate for such long-range planning required the identification of goals specific enough to provide guidance, but broad enough to be of relevance over a long period of time. The long-range goals adopted by these councils in 1995 covered a wide variety of topics and offered a framework within which current practices could be defined and assessed. Collectively, these long-range goals were meant to provide a single source of direction to the complex assortment of practitioners and policymakers whose individual concerns and decisions collectively define the nature and effectiveness of Iowa’s justice system. The twenty-year goals established in 1995 were reviewed by the councils in 2000 to assess their current relevance. It was determined that, with a few revisions, the goals established in 1995 should be restated in 2000 with a renewed emphasis on their long-range status. This plan builds upon those issued in 1995 and 2000, continuing much of the emphasis of plans, with some new directions charted as appropriate.

Error and attack tolerance of layered complex networks.

Many complex systems may be described by not one but a number of complex networks mapped on each other in a multi-layer structure. Because of the interactions and dependencies between these layers, the state of a single layer does not necessarily reflect well the state of the entire system. In this paper we study the robustness of five examples of two-layer complex systems: three real-life data sets in the fields of communication (the Internet), transportation (the European railway system), and biology (the human brain), and two models based on random graphs. In order to cover the whole range of features specific to these systems, we focus on two extreme policies of system's response to failures, no rerouting and full rerouting. Our main finding is that multi-layer systems are much more vulnerable to errors and intentional attacks than they appear from a single layer perspective.