Social spending and demographics: The role of public policies in the intergenerational redistribution of income. Empirical evidence from Spain and Catalonia

The demographic shift underway in Southern Europe requires a revision of some of thefundamental principles of the traditional welfare state. We analyze the evolution of several aspects of welfare and social expenditure over the last two decades. We find that in the context of the present demographic changes and real estate boom current social and pension policy leads to a new distribution of benefits and burdens which is highly intergenerationally unequal. We argue for a revised definition of public policy based on Musgrave's proposition as a possible rule for an intergenerationally fair distribution.

Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005

Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

Tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (1950-2009)

This paper presents a preliminary climatology of tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). A database spanning 60 yr (1950-2009) has been developed on the basis of information collected from various sources such as weather reports, insurance companies, newspapers and damage surveys. This database has been subjected to a rigorous validation process, and the climatology describes its main features: timing, spatial pattern, and trends in the tornado and waterspout distribution. Results show the highest concentration of tornadoes from August to October, the highest density in the heavily populated coastal areas and a growing positive trend that is likely more closely linked to an increase in observation and perception rather than a real climatic trend.

Improving the prediction of plant species distribution and community composition by adding edaphic to topo-climatic variables

Questions Soil properties have been widely shown to influence plant growth and distribution. However, the degree to which edaphic variables can improve models based on topo-climatic variables is still unclear. In this study, we tested the roles of seven edaphic variables, namely (1) pH; (2) the content of nitrogen and of (3) phosphorus; (4) silt; (5) sand; (6) clay and (7) carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, as predictors of species distribution models in an edaphically heterogeneous landscape. We also tested how the respective influence of these variables in the models is linked to different ecological and functional species characteristics. Location The Western Alps, Switzerland. Methods With four different modelling techniques, we built models for 115 plant species using topo-climatic variables alone and then topo-climatic variables plus each of the seven edaphic variables, one at a time. We evaluated the contribution of each edaphic variable by assessing the change in predictive power of the model. In a second step, we evaluated the importance of the two edaphic variables that yielded the largest increase in predictive power in one final set of models for each species. Third, we explored the change in predictive power and the importance of variables across plant functional groups. Finally, we assessed the influence of the edaphic predictors on the prediction of community composition by stacking the models for all species and comparing the predicted communities with the observed community. Results Among the set of edaphic variables studied, pH and nitrogen content showed the highest contributions to improvement of the predictive power of the models, as well as the predictions of community composition. When considering all topo-climatic and edaphic variables together, pH was the second most important variable after degree-days. The changes in model results caused by edaphic predictors were dependent on species characteristics. The predictions for the species that have a low specific leaf area, and acidophilic preferences, tolerating low soil pH and high humus content, showed the largest improvement by the addition of pH and nitrogen in the model. Conclusions pH was an important predictor variable for explaining species distribution and community composition of the mountain plants considered in our study. pH allowed more precise predictions for acidophilic species. This variable should not be neglected in the construction of species distribution models in areas with contrasting edaphic conditions.

The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK

Research has found that both flood magnitude and frequency in the UK may have increased over the last five decades. However, evaluating whether or not this is a systematic trend is difficult because of the lack of longer records. Here we compile and consider an extreme flood record that extends back to 1770. Since 1770, there have been 137 recorded extreme floods. However, over this period, there is not a unidirectional trend of rising extreme flood risk over time. Instead, there are clear flood-rich and flood-poor periods. Three main flood-rich periods were identified: 18731904, 19231933, and 1994 onwards. To provide a first analysis of what is driving these periods, and given the paucity of more sophisticated datasets that extend back to the 18th century, objective Lamb weather types were used. Of the 27 objective Lamb weather types, only 11 could be associated with the extreme floods during the gauged period, and only 5 of these accounted for > 80% of recorded extreme floods The importance of these five weather types over a longer timescale for flood risk in Carlisle was assessed, through calculating the proportion of each hydrological year classified as being associated with these flood-generating weather types. Two periods clearly had more than the average proportions of the year classified as one of the flood causing weather types; 19001940 and 19832007; and these two periods both contained flood-rich hydrological records. Thus, the analysis suggests that systematic organisation of the North Atlantic climate system may be manifest as periods of elevated and reduced flood risk, an observation that has major implications for analyses that assume that climatic drivers of flood risk can be either statistically stationary or are following a simple trend. Copyright (c) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Are we living longer but less healthy? Trends in mortality and morbidity in Catalonia (Spain), 1994-2011

Evidence on trends in prevalence of disease and disability can clarify whether countries are experiencing a compression or expansion of morbidity. An expansion of morbidity as indicated by disease have appeared in Europe and other developed regions. It is likely that better treatment, preventive measures and increases in education levels have contributed to the declines in mortality and increments in life expectancy. This paper examines whether there has been an expansion of morbidity in Catalonia (Spain). It uses trends in mortality and morbidity from major causes of death and links of these with survival to provide estimates of life expectancy with and without diseases and functioning loss. We use a repeated cross-sectional health survey carried out in 1994 and 2011 for measures of morbidity; mortality information comes from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Our findings show that at age 65 the percentage of life with disease increased from 52% to 70% for men, and from 56% to 72% for women; the expectation of life unable to function increased from 24% to 30% for men and 40% to 47% for women between 1994 and 2011. These changes were attributable to increases in the prevalences of diseases and moderate functional limitation. Overall, we find an expansion of morbidity along the period. Increasing survival among people with diseases can lead to a higher prevalence of diseases in the older population. Higher prevalence of health problems can lead to greater pressure on the health care system and a growing burden of disease for individuals.

Viticulture under climate change : understanding vulnerability and adaptive capacity of wineries and growers. A case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia

Climate change may pose challenges and opportunities to viticulture, and much research has focused in studying the likely impacts on grapes and wine production in different regions worldwide. This study assesses the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the viticulture sector under changing climate conditions, based on a case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia. Farm assets, livelihood strategies, farmer-market interactions and climate changes perceptions are analysed through semi-structured interviews with different types of wineries and growers. Both types of actors are equally exposed to biophysical stressors but unevenly affected by socioeconomic changes. While wineries are vulnerable because of the current economic crisis and the lack of diversification of their work, which may affect their income or production, growers are mainly affected by the low prices of their products and the lack of fix contracts. These socioeconomic stressors strongly condition their capacity to adapt to climate change, meaning that growers prioritize their immediate income problems, rather than future socioeconomic or climate threats. Therefore, growers undertake reactive adaptation to climate changing conditions, mainly based on ancient knowledge, whilst wineries combine both reactive and anticipatory adaptation practices. These circumstances should be addressed in order to allow better anticipatory adaptation to be implemented, thus avoiding future climate threats.

La Incidencia de la helada de 1956 en el olivar de Navata (Alt Empordà, Girona)

In the region of Alt Empordà (Girona), olive groves historically shaped a landscape of high economic value, cultural and environmental although since mid-twentieth century is in sharp decline. One of the municipalities located on the edge of the plana altoampurdanesa that best exemplify this process of abandonment and near disappearance of that crop is Navata. This article analyzes the changes in the olive grove of this municipality in the period 1957-2004, both through the development of mapping land use and land cover level of detail as the analysis of data sources and oral exercise that makes emphasizes the loss of 90% of the existing olive grove in the middle of last century. The frost of February of 1956 was one of the main causes, but not unique. However, both the importance of the olive groves as an identity and conservation of biodiversity as the differential nature of the oil obtained from varieties natives to the area (especially argudell), justify the need to promote policies that will help your recovery

Climatic and anthropogenic influence on the stable isotope record from bulk carbonates and ostracodes in Lake Neuchatel, Switzerland, during the last two millennia

Lake Neuchatel is a medium sized, hard-water lake, lacking varved sediments, situated in the western Swiss Lowlands at the foot of the Jura Mountains. Stable isotope data (delta(18)O and delta(13)C) from both bulk carbonate and ostracode calcite in an 81 cm long, radiocarbon-dated sediment core represent the last 1500 years of Lake Neuchatel's environmental history. Comparison between this isotopic and other palaeolimnologic data (mineralogical, geochemical, palynological, etc.) helps to differentiate between anthropogenic and natural factors most recently affecting the lake. An increase in lacustrine productivity (450-650AD ca), inferred from the positive trend in delta(13)C values of bulk carbonate, is related to medieval forest clearances and the associated nutrient budget changes. A negative trend in both the bulk carbonate and ostracode calcite delta(18)O values between approximately 1300 and 1500AD, is tentatively interpreted as due to a cooling in mean air temperature at the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. Negative trends in bulk carbonate delta(18)O and delta(13)C values through the uppermost sediments, which have no equivalent in ostracode calcite isotopic values, are concomitant with the recent onset of eutrophication in the lake. Isotopic disequilibrium during calcite precipitation, probably due to kinetic factors in periods of high productivity is postulated as the mechanism to explain the associated negative isotopic trends, although the effect of a shift of the calcite precipitation towards the warmer months cannot be excluded.

Competing risks to breast cancer mortality in Catalonia

Background: Breast cancer mortality has experienced important changes over the last century. Breast cancer occurs in the presence of other competing risks which can influence breast cancer incidence and mortality trends. The aim of the present work is: 1) to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths among mortality from all causes in Catalonia (Spain), by age and birth cohort and 2) to estimate the risk of death from other causes than breast cancer, one of the inputs needed to model breast cancer mortality reduction due to screening or therapeutic interventions. Methods: The multi-decrement life table methodology was used. First, all-cause mortality probabilities were obtained by age and cohort. Then mortality probability for breast cancer was subtracted from the all-cause mortality probabilities to obtain cohort life tables for causes other than breast cancer. These life tables, on one hand, provide an estimate of the risk of dying from competing risks, and on the other hand, permit to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths on all-cause mortality using the ratio of the probability of death for causes other than breast cancer by the all-cause probability of death. Results: There was an increasing impact of breast cancer on mortality in the first part of the 20th century, with a peak for cohorts born in 1945–54 in the 40–49 age groups (for which approximately 24% of mortality was due to breast cancer). Even though for cohorts born after 1955 there was only information for women under 50, it is also important to note that the impact of breast cancer on all-cause mortality decreased for those cohorts. Conclusion: We have quantified the effect of removing breast cancer mortality in different age groups and birth cohorts. Our results are consistent with US findings. We also have obtained an estimate of the risk of dying from competing-causes mortality, which will be used in the assessment of the effect of mammography screening on breast cancer mortality in Catalonia.

Assessment of the water chemistry and the macroinvertebrate community changes produced during the creation of the new Llobregat river mouth (Barcelona, NE Spain)

In 1999, a set of coordinated projects and investments whose principal objective was to transform Barcelona into one of the main distribution points of southern Europe resulted in the relocation of the Llobregat River mouth. The mouth was relocated by draining the old river mouth and constructing a new one. The aim of this study was to characterise the physico-chemical properties and the aquatic macroinvertebrate communities of the new river mouth and to monitor the changes experienced by the estuarine environment during its creation. A sampling point was established in the river 1.8 km upstream from its connection with the new mouth, and two sampling points were established in the new mouth. Samples of water and macroinvertebrates were collected every two months from May 2004 to June 2005, covering the periods before (from May to September 2004) and after (from September 2004 to June 2005) the new mouth was connected to the river and the sea. During the period before its connection to the river and the sea, the new mouth was functionally similar to a lagoon, with clear waters, charophytes and a rich invertebrate community. After the connection was completed, seawater penetrated the river mouth and extended to the connection point with the river (approximately 3.9 km upstream). An increase in conductivity from 4-6 mS cm 1 to 24-30 mS cm 1 caused important changes in the macroinvertebrate community of the new mouth. An initial defaunation was followed by a colonisation of the new mouth by brackish-water and marine invertebrate species. Due to its design (which allows the penetration of the sea) and the decreased discharge from the lower part of the Llobregat River, the new mouth has become an arm of the sea

Quantification of environment-driven changes in epiphytic macroinvertebrate communities associated to Phragmites australis

The epiphytic macroinvertebrate communities associated with the Common Reed, Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin. ex Steudel, were examined seasonally from summer 2004 to spring 2005 in eleven coastal lagoons of the Llobregat Delta (NE Spain) following the method proposed by Kornijów & Kairesalo (1994). The aims of the study were to: 1) characterise and quantify changes in epiphytic macroinvertebrate communities along environmental gradients; 2) assess the contribution of elements of the epiphytic compartment to structuring the community; 3) define the optima and tolerances of selected epiphytic macroinvertebrate taxa for the most relevant ecological factors responsible for assemblage composition; and 4) identify possible epiphytic species assemblages that would allow a lagoon"s typology to be established, as well as their representative indicator species. Communities showed statistically significant seasonal variation, with two faunal peaks: one in summer, with high chironomid densities, and the other in winter, with high naidid densities. These peaks showed a clear response to the influence of environmental factors. Salinity explained the highest percentage of total variance (36%), while trophic variables (nutrients, phytoplanktonic chlorophyll-a, and total organic carbon) and epiphyton biomass (19.2 and 4% of total variance explained, respectively) were secondary. Three different epiphytic macroinvertebrate species assemblages could be defined. These assemblages were directly linked to conductivity conditions, which determined the rate of survival of certain taxa, and to the existence of a direct connection with the sea, which permitted the establishment of 'brackish-water' species. In spite of the existence of these species assemblages, the species composition and biomass of epiphytic macroinvertebrates and epiphyton differed substantially between lagoons; both elements were subject to changes in the environment, which finally determined the site-to-site variation in the density and composition of the macroinvertebrate population

Landscape Systems and Human Land-Use Interactions in Mediterranean Highlands and Littoral Plains during the Late Holocene: Integrated Analysis from the InterAmbAr Project (North-Eastern Catalonia).

The main goal of the InterAmbAr reseach project is to analyze the relationships between landscape systems and human land-use strategies on mountains and littoral plains from a long-term perspective. The study adopts a high resolution analysis of small-scale study areas located in the Mediterranean region of north-eastern Catalonia. The study areas are distributed along an altitudinal transect from the high mountain (above 2000m a.s.l.) to the littoral plain of Empordà (Fig. 1). High resolution interdisciplinary research has been carried out from 2010, based on the integration of palaeoenvironmental and archaeological data. The micro-scale approach is used to understand human-environmental relationships. It allows better understanding of the local-regional nature of environmental changes and the synergies between catchment-based systems, hydro-sedimentary regimes, human mobility, land-uses, human environments, demography, etc.

The FaceUOC Project : An Open Social Learning experience by the Open University of Catalonia

The possibilities and expansion of the use of Web 2.0 has opened up a world of possibilities in online learning. In spite of the integration of these tools in education major changes are required in the educational design of instructional processes.This paper presents an educational experience conducted by the Open University of Catalonia using the social network Facebook for the purpose of testing a learning model that uses a participation and collaboration methodology among users based on the use of open educational resources.- The aim of the experience is to test an Open Social Learning (OSL) model, understood to be a virtual learning environment open to the Internet community, based on the use of open resources and on a methodology focused on the participation and collaboration of users in the construction of knowledge.- The topic chosen for this experience in Facebook was 2.0 Journeys: online tools and resources. The objective of this 5 weeks course was to provide students with resources for managing the various textual, photographic, audiovisual and multimedia materials resulting from a journey.- The most important changes in the design and development of a course based on OSL are the role of the teacher, the role of the student, the type of content and the methodology:- The teacher mixes with the participants, guiding them and offering the benefit of his/her experience and knowledge.- Students learn through their participation and collaboration with a mixed group of users.- The content is open and editable under different types of license that specify the level of accessibility.- The methodology of the course was based on the creation of a learning community able to self-manage its learning process. For this a facilitator was needed and also a central activity was established for people to participate and contribute in the community.- We used an ethnographic methodology and also questionnaires to students in order to acquire results regarding the quality of this type of learning experience.- Some of the data obtained raised questions to consider for future designs of educational situations based on OSL:- Difficulties in breaking the facilitator-centred structure- Change in the time required to adapt to the system and to achieve the objectives- Lack of commitment with free courses- The trend to return to traditional ways of learning- Accreditation- This experience has taught all of us that education can happen any time and in any place but not in any way.

An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982-2006

This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation) has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA) has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use.