969 resultados para Chance.


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Treścią publikacji jest przedstawienie wybranych problemów prognozowania w naukach społecznych. W artykule skoncentrowano się na metodzie gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych, które – zwłaszcza wraz z rozwojem teorii gier oraz komputerów – są coraz częściej wykorzystywane w wielu dziedzinach. Na wybranych przykładach gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych – Poznań International Model United Nations 2013/POZiMUN; S.E.N.S.E. a także gry sieciowej EVE Online – wskazano jak ważne są takie ćwiczenia, by móc precyzyjniej przewidywać przyszłość. Zwrócono także szczególną uwagę na kwestię przypadku oraz czynników zakłócających, które mogą destabilizować proces przewidywania. Poruszono ponadto problem podejmowania decyzji w aspekcie klasycznej oraz kwantowej logiki.

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Tese de Doutoramento apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Ciências da Informação.

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Dissertação apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Criatividade e Inovação

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For high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) to continue to gain acceptance for cancer treatment it is necessary to understand how the applied ultrasound interacts with gas trapped in the tissue. The presence of bubbles in the target location have been thought to be responsible for shielding the incoming pressure and increasing local heat deposition due to the bubble dynamics. We lack adequate tools for monitoring the cavitation process, due to both limited visualization methods and understanding of the underlying physics. The goal of this project was to elucidate the role of inertial cavitation in HIFU exposures in the hope of applying noise diagnostics to monitor cavitation activity and control HIFU-induced cavitation in a beneficial manner. A number of approaches were taken to understand the relationship between inertial cavitation signals, bubble heating, and bubble shielding in agar-graphite tissue phantoms. Passive cavitation detection (PCD) techniques were employed to detect inertial bubble collapses while the temperature was monitored with an embedded thermocouple. Results indicate that the broadband noise amplitude is correlated to bubble-enhanced heating. Monitoring inertial cavitation at multiple positions throughout the focal region demonstrated that bubble activity increased prefocally as it diminished near the focus. Lowering the HIFU duty cycle had the effect of maintaining a more or less constant cavitation signal, suggesting the shielding effect diminished when the bubbles had a chance to dissolve during the HIFU off-time. Modeling the effect of increasing the ambient temperature showed that bubbles do not collapse as violently at higher temperatures due to increased vapor pressure inside the bubble. Our conclusion is that inertial cavitation heating is less effective at higher temperatures and bubble shielding is involved in shifting energy deposition at the focus. The use of a diagnostic ultrasound imaging system as a PCD array was explored. Filtering out the scattered harmonics from the received RF signals resulted in a spatially- resolved inertial cavitation signal, while the amplitude of the harmonics showed a correlation with temperatures approaching the onset of boiling. The result is a new tool for detecting a broader spectrum of bubble activity and thus enhancing HIFU treatment visualization and feedback.

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A method is proposed that can generate a ranked list of plausible three-dimensional hand configurations that best match an input image. Hand pose estimation is formulated as an image database indexing problem, where the closest matches for an input hand image are retrieved from a large database of synthetic hand images. In contrast to previous approaches, the system can function in the presence of clutter, thanks to two novel clutter-tolerant indexing methods. First, a computationally efficient approximation of the image-to-model chamfer distance is obtained by embedding binary edge images into a high-dimensional Euclide an space. Second, a general-purpose, probabilistic line matching method identifies those line segment correspondences between model and input images that are the least likely to have occurred by chance. The performance of this clutter-tolerant approach is demonstrated in quantitative experiments with hundreds of real hand images.

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We consider the problem of building robust fuzzy extractors, which allow two parties holding similar random variables W, W' to agree on a secret key R in the presence of an active adversary. Robust fuzzy extractors were defined by Dodis et al. in Crypto 2006 [6] to be noninteractive, i.e., only one message P, which can be modified by an unbounded adversary, can pass from one party to the other. This allows them to be used by a single party at different points in time (e.g., for key recovery or biometric authentication), but also presents an additional challenge: what if R is used, and thus possibly observed by the adversary, before the adversary has a chance to modify P. Fuzzy extractors secure against such a strong attack are called post-application robust. We construct a fuzzy extractor with post-application robustness that extracts a shared secret key of up to (2m−n)/2 bits (depending on error-tolerance and security parameters), where n is the bit-length and m is the entropy of W . The previously best known result, also of Dodis et al., [6] extracted up to (2m − n)/3 bits (depending on the same parameters).

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Spotting patterns of interest in an input signal is a very useful task in many different fields including medicine, bioinformatics, economics, speech recognition and computer vision. Example instances of this problem include spotting an object of interest in an image (e.g., a tumor), a pattern of interest in a time-varying signal (e.g., audio analysis), or an object of interest moving in a specific way (e.g., a human's body gesture). Traditional spotting methods, which are based on Dynamic Time Warping or hidden Markov models, use some variant of dynamic programming to register the pattern and the input while accounting for temporal variation between them. At the same time, those methods often suffer from several shortcomings: they may give meaningless solutions when input observations are unreliable or ambiguous, they require a high complexity search across the whole input signal, and they may give incorrect solutions if some patterns appear as smaller parts within other patterns. In this thesis, we develop a framework that addresses these three problems, and evaluate the framework's performance in spotting and recognizing hand gestures in video. The first contribution is a spatiotemporal matching algorithm that extends the dynamic programming formulation to accommodate multiple candidate hand detections in every video frame. The algorithm finds the best alignment between the gesture model and the input, and simultaneously locates the best candidate hand detection in every frame. This allows for a gesture to be recognized even when the hand location is highly ambiguous. The second contribution is a pruning method that uses model-specific classifiers to reject dynamic programming hypotheses with a poor match between the input and model. Pruning improves the efficiency of the spatiotemporal matching algorithm, and in some cases may improve the recognition accuracy. The pruning classifiers are learned from training data, and cross-validation is used to reduce the chance of overpruning. The third contribution is a subgesture reasoning process that models the fact that some gesture models can falsely match parts of other, longer gestures. By integrating subgesture reasoning the spotting algorithm can avoid the premature detection of a subgesture when the longer gesture is actually being performed. Subgesture relations between pairs of gestures are automatically learned from training data. The performance of the approach is evaluated on two challenging video datasets: hand-signed digits gestured by users wearing short sleeved shirts, in front of a cluttered background, and American Sign Language (ASL) utterances gestured by ASL native signers. The experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is more accurate and efficient than competing approaches. The proposed approach can be generally applied to alignment or search problems with multiple input observations, that use dynamic programming to find a solution.

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The connection between Godwin and Fénelon has traditionally been restricted to the famous and controversial moment in the first edition of Political Justice (1793) in which Godwin presents an example of the interdependence of rationality and ethical action. This paper argues, however, that Fénelon, and particularly his political and educational treatise Telemachus (1699), plays a significant role in a number of Godwin's subsequent fictional works. Employing Telemachus to explore the theories of education presented by Godwin in the various editions of Political Justice and The Enquirer (1797), this paper explores the manner in which Godwin's version of the Enlightenment transcendence of pedagogical power comes up against its limits. Reading this issue in relation to Godwin's argument, in ‘Of Choice in Reading’, that literature remains outside of socio-ethical corruption, three of Godwin's major novels are shown to demonstrate that Telemachus provides the chance for meta-textual moments in which the appeal to reason (the reader's rational capacity or ‘private judgement’) is at once reflected upon and produced. Reading educational theories and problems into Godwin's major fiction in this fashion helps to clarify aspects of the Godwinian (or ‘Jacobin’) novel.

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This study explores the experiences of stress and burnout in Irish second level teachers and examines the contribution of a number of individual, environmental and health factors in burnout development. As no such study has previously been carried out with this sample, a mixed-methods approach was adopted in order to comprehensively investigate the subject matter. Teaching has consistently been identified as a particularly stressful occupation and research investigating its development is of great importance in developing measures to address the problem. The first phase of study involved the use of focus groups conducted with a total of 20 second-level teachers from 11 different schools in the greater Cork city area. Findings suggest that teachers experience a variety of stressors – in class, in the staff room and outside of school. The second phase of study employed a survey to examine the factors associated with burnout. Analysis of 192 responses suggested that burnout results from a combination of demographic, personality, environmental and coping factors. Burnout was also found to be associated with a number of physical symptoms, particularly trouble sleeping and fatigue. Findings suggest that interventions designed to reduce burnout must reflect the complexity of the problem and its development. Based on the research findings, interventions that combine individual and organisational approaches should provide the optimal chance of effectively tackling burnout.

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My thesis investigates the dynamics behind the changing nature of the leadership of the western Roman army in the fifth century through the concept of ‘warlordism’. I carried this out by analyzing those cases of insubordination and military unrest in the officer class of the western Roman army, which can be shown to be linked to the slow decline of central authority and the imperial office in the period 395-480. My thesis demonstrates that theories of ‘Warlordism’, as developed in social sciences, can be useful for both the late Imperial west as for other eras of ancient history, such as the late Roman republic. Warlordism was a way of continuing politics, if necessary by military means, when commanders found themselves outside the legitimate framework. Unlike the case of usurpation of the imperial office, when there was little hope of achieving permanent recognition and acceptance, it offered insubordinate officers a chance of returning to the ruling imperial regime depending on circumstances and the success of their resistance. I propose that warlordism functioned as an alternative to usurpation, a tool for military dissidence, fuelled by an economy of violence. Contrary to modern warlordism, the warlordism of the fifth century AD represented a transient phase which no imperial commander was willing to prolong indefinitely. At some stage, given the means, warlords in the western Roman army wanted to become part of the imperial echelon again. Yet these alternative methods of violent opposition, and the acquisition of force through private means, ensured the breakdown of the state’s monopoly on violence and the disintegration of centralized armies. What started as an accidental revolution became a new form of military rule.

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Of late, the magnetic properties of micro/nano-structures have attracted intense research interest both fundamentally and technologically particularly to address the question that how the manipulation in the different layers of nanostructures, geometry of a patterned structure can affect the overall magnetic properties, while generating novel applications such as in magnetic sensors, storage devices, integrated inductive components and spintronic devices. Depending on the applications, materials with high, medium or low magnetic anisotropy and their possible manipulation are required. The most dramatic manifestation in this respect is the chance to manipulate the magnetic anisotropy over the intrinsic preferential direction of the magnetization, which can open up more functionality particularly for device applications. Types of magnetic anisotropies of different nanostructured materials and their manipulation techniques are investigated in this work. Detail experimental methods for the quantitative determination of magnetic anisotropy in nanomodulated Ni45Fe55 thin film are studied. Magnetic field induced in-plane rotations within the nanomodulated Ni45Fe55 continuous films revealed various rotational symmetries of magnetic anisotropy due to dipolar interactions showing a crossover from lower to higher fold of symmetry as a function of modulation geometry. In a second approach, the control of exchange anisotropy at ferromagnetic (FM) – aniferomagnetic (AFM) interface in multifferoic nanocomposite materials, where two different phase/types of materials were simultaneously synthesized, was investigated. The third part of this work was to study the electroplated thin films of metal alloy nanocomposite for enhanced exchange anisotropy. In this work a unique observation of an anti-clock wise as well as a clock wise hysteresis loop formation in the Ni,Fe solid solution with very low coercivity and large positive exchange anisotropy/exchange bias have been investigated. Hence, controllable positive and negative exchange anisotropy has been observed for the first time which has high potential applications such as in MRAM devices.

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The child is the most precious asset and the focal point of development for any country. However, unless children are brought up in a stimulating and conducive environment getting the best possible care and protection, their physical, mental, emotional and social development is susceptible to permanent damage. Ethiopia, being one of the least developed countries of the world due to interrelated and complex socio-economic factors including man-made and natural calamities, a large portion of our population - especially children - are victimized by social evils like famine, disease, poverty, mass displacement, lack of education and family instability. Owing to the fact that children are the most vulnerable group among the whole society and also because they constitute half of the population it is evident that a considerable number of Ethiopian children are living under difficult circumstances. Therefore, as in a number of other third world countries there are many poor, displaced, unaccompanied and orphaned children in our country. A considerable proportion of these children work on the street with some even totally living on the street without any adult care and protection. These children are forced to the streets in their tight for survival. They supplement their parents meagre income or support themselves with the small incomes they earn doing menial jobs. In doing this, street children face the danger of getting into accidents and violence, they get exploited and abused, many are forced to drop out of school or never get the chance to be enroled at all and some drift into begging or petty crime. This study is undertaken mainly for updating the findings of previous studies, monitoring changing trends, examining new facts of the problem and getting a better understanding of the phenomenon in the country by covering at least some of the major centres where the problem is acute. Thus, the outcome of this research can be useful in the formation of the social welfare programme of the country. Finally, in recognition of the urgency of the problem and the limited resources available, the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs expresses appreciation to all agencies engaged in the rehabilitation of street children and prevention of the problem. The Ministry also calls for more co-operation and support between concerned governmental and non-governmental organizations in their efforts for improving the situation of street children and in curbing the overwhelming nature of the problem.

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PURPOSE: Mammography is known to be one of the most difficult radiographic exams to interpret. Mammography has important limitations, including the superposition of normal tissue that can obscure a mass, chance alignment of normal tissue to mimic a true lesion and the inability to derive volumetric information. It has been shown that stereomammography can overcome these deficiencies by showing that layers of normal tissue lay at different depths. If standard stereomammography (i.e., a single stereoscopic pair consisting of two projection images) can significantly improve lesion detection, how will multiview stereoscopy (MVS), where many projection images are used, compare to mammography? The aim of this study was to assess the relative performance of MVS compared to mammography for breast mass detection. METHODS: The MVS image sets consisted of the 25 raw projection images acquired over an arc of approximately 45 degrees using a Siemens prototype breast tomosynthesis system. The mammograms were acquired using a commercial Siemens FFDM system. The raw data were taken from both of these systems for 27 cases and realistic simulated mass lesions were added to duplicates of the 27 images at the same local contrast. The images with lesions (27 mammography and 27 MVS) and the images without lesions (27 mammography and 27 MVS) were then postprocessed to provide comparable and representative image appearance across the two modalities. All 108 image sets were shown to five full-time breast imaging radiologists in random order on a state-of-the-art stereoscopic display. The observers were asked to give a confidence rating for each image (0 for lesion definitely not present, 100 for lesion definitely present). The ratings were then compiled and processed using ROC and variance analysis. RESULTS: The mean AUC for the five observers was 0.614 +/- 0.055 for mammography and 0.778 +/- 0.052 for multiview stereoscopy. The difference of 0.164 +/- 0.065 was statistically significant with a p-value of 0.0148. CONCLUSIONS: The differences in the AUCs and the p-value suggest that multiview stereoscopy has a statistically significant advantage over mammography in the detection of simulated breast masses. This highlights the dominance of anatomical noise compared to quantum noise for breast mass detection. It also shows that significant lesion detection can be achieved with MVS without any of the artifacts associated with tomosynthesis.

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Recent evidence that echinoids of the genus Echinometra have moderate visual acuity that appears to be mediated by their spines screening off-axis light suggests that the urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, with its higher spine density, may have even more acute spatial vision. We analyzed the movements of 39 specimens of S. purpuratus after they were placed in the center of a featureless tank containing a round, black target that had an angular diameter of 6.5 deg. or 10 deg. (solid angles of 0.01 sr and 0.024 sr, respectively). An average orientation vector for each urchin was determined by testing the animal four times, with the target placed successively at bearings of 0 deg., 90 deg., 180 deg. and 270 deg. (relative to magnetic east). The urchins showed no significant unimodal or axial orientation relative to any non-target feature of the environment or relative to the changing position of the 6.5 deg. target. However, the urchins were strongly axially oriented relative to the changing position of the 10 deg. target (mean axis from -1 to 179 deg.; 95% confidence interval +/- 12 deg.; P<0.001, Moore's non-parametric Hotelling's test), with 10 of the 20 urchins tested against that target choosing an average bearing within 10 deg. of either the target center or its opposite direction (two would be expected by chance). In addition, the average length of the 20 target-normalized bearings for the 10 deg. target (each the vector sum of the bearings for the four trials) were far higher than would be expected by chance (P<10(-10); Monte Carlo simulation), showing that each urchin, whether it moved towards or away from the target, did so with high consistency. These results strongly suggest that S. purpuratus detected the 10 deg. target, responding either by approaching it or fleeing it. Given that the urchins did not appear to respond to the 6.5 deg. target, it is likely that the 10 deg. target was close to the minimum detectable size for this species. Interestingly, measurements of the spine density of the regions of the test that faced horizontally predicted a similar visual resolution (8.3+/-0.5 deg. for the interambulacrum and 11+/-0.54 deg. for the ambulacrum). The function of this relatively low, but functional, acuity - on par with that of the chambered Nautilus and the horseshoe crab - is unclear but, given the bimodal response, is likely to be related to both shelter seeking and predator avoidance.