980 resultados para Bayesian approaches


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Inelastic x-ray scattering spectroscopy is a versatile experimental technique for probing the electronic structure of materials. It provides a wealth of information on the sample's atomic-scale structure, but extracting this information from the experimental data can be challenging because there is no direct relation between the structure and the measured spectrum. Theoretical calculations can bridge this gap by explaining the structural origins of the spectral features. Reliable methods for modeling inelastic x-ray scattering require accurate electronic structure calculations. This work presents the development and implementation of new schemes for modeling the inelastic scattering of x-rays from non-periodic systems. The methods are based on density functional theory and are applicable for a wide variety of molecular materials. Applications are presented in this work for amorphous silicon monoxide and several gas phase systems. Valuable new information on their structure and properties could be extracted with the combination of experimental and computational methods.

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Stochastic behavior of an aero-engine failure/repair process has been analyzed from a Bayesian perspective. Number of failures/repairs in the component-sockets of this multi-component system are assumed to follow independent renewal processes with Weibull inter-arrival times. Based on the field failure/repair data of a large number of such engines and independent Gamma priors on the scale parameters and log-concave priors on the shape parameters, an exact method of sampling from the resulting posterior distributions of the parameters has been proposed. These generated parameter values are next utilised in obtaining the posteriors of the expected number of system repairs, system failure rate, and the conditional intensity function, which are computed using a recursive formula.

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We propose an efficient and parameter-free scoring criterion, the factorized conditional log-likelihood (ˆfCLL), for learning Bayesian network classifiers. The proposed score is an approximation of the conditional log-likelihood criterion. The approximation is devised in order to guarantee decomposability over the network structure, as well as efficient estimation of the optimal parameters, achieving the same time and space complexity as the traditional log-likelihood scoring criterion. The resulting criterion has an information-theoretic interpretation based on interaction information, which exhibits its discriminative nature. To evaluate the performance of the proposed criterion, we present an empirical comparison with state-of-the-art classifiers. Results on a large suite of benchmark data sets from the UCI repository show that ˆfCLL-trained classifiers achieve at least as good accuracy as the best compared classifiers, using significantly less computational resources.

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Bayesian networks are compact, flexible, and interpretable representations of a joint distribution. When the network structure is unknown but there are observational data at hand, one can try to learn the network structure. This is called structure discovery. This thesis contributes to two areas of structure discovery in Bayesian networks: space--time tradeoffs and learning ancestor relations. The fastest exact algorithms for structure discovery in Bayesian networks are based on dynamic programming and use excessive amounts of space. Motivated by the space usage, several schemes for trading space against time are presented. These schemes are presented in a general setting for a class of computational problems called permutation problems; structure discovery in Bayesian networks is seen as a challenging variant of the permutation problems. The main contribution in the area of the space--time tradeoffs is the partial order approach, in which the standard dynamic programming algorithm is extended to run over partial orders. In particular, a certain family of partial orders called parallel bucket orders is considered. A partial order scheme that provably yields an optimal space--time tradeoff within parallel bucket orders is presented. Also practical issues concerning parallel bucket orders are discussed. Learning ancestor relations, that is, directed paths between nodes, is motivated by the need for robust summaries of the network structures when there are unobserved nodes at work. Ancestor relations are nonmodular features and hence learning them is more difficult than modular features. A dynamic programming algorithm is presented for computing posterior probabilities of ancestor relations exactly. Empirical tests suggest that ancestor relations can be learned from observational data almost as accurately as arcs even in the presence of unobserved nodes.

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This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed price-assumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.

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Chemical methods of synthesis play a crucial role in designing and discovering new and novel materials and in providing less cumbersome methods for preparing known materials. Chemical methods also enable the synthesis of metastable materials which are otherwise difficult to prepare. In this presentation, the various innovative chemical methods of synthesising oxide materials will be briefly reviewed with emphasis on soft-chemical routes. Electrochemical synthesis, ion-exchange method, alkali-flux method and some of the interaction reactions will be highlighted, besides topochemical aspects of solid state synthesis. Cuprate superconductors as well as intergrowth structures will also be examined.

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This paper considers the problem of spectrum sensing, i.e., the detection of whether or not a primary user is transmitting data by a cognitive radio. The Bayesian framework is adopted, with the performance measure being the probability of detection error. A decentralized setup, where N sensors use M observations each to arrive at individual decisions that are combined at a fusion center to form the overall decision is considered. The unknown fading channel between the primary sensor and the cognitive radios makes the individual decision rule computationally complex, hence, a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT)-based approach is adopted. Analysis of the probabilities of false alarm and miss detection of the proposed method reveals that the error exponent with respect to M is zero. Also, the fusion of N individual decisions offers a diversity advantage, similar to diversity reception in communication systems, and a tight bound on the error exponent is presented. Through an analysis in the low power regime, the number of observations needed as a function of received power, to achieve a given probability of error is determined. Monte-Carlo simulations confirm the accuracy of the analysis.

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The impulse response of a typical wireless multipath channel can be modeled as a tapped delay line filter whose non-zero components are sparse relative to the channel delay spread. In this paper, a novel method of estimating such sparse multipath fading channels for OFDM systems is explored. In particular, Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) techniques are applied to jointly estimate the sparse channel and its second order statistics, and a new Bayesian Cramer-Rao bound is derived for the SBL algorithm. Further, in the context of OFDM channel estimation, an enhancement to the SBL algorithm is proposed, which uses an Expectation Maximization (EM) framework to jointly estimate the sparse channel, unknown data symbols and the second order statistics of the channel. The EM-SBL algorithm is able to recover the support as well as the channel taps more efficiently, and/or using fewer pilot symbols, than the SBL algorithm. To further improve the performance of the EM-SBL, a threshold-based pruning of the estimated second order statistics that are input to the algorithm is proposed, and its mean square error and symbol error rate performance is illustrated through Monte-Carlo simulations. Thus, the algorithms proposed in this paper are capable of obtaining efficient sparse channel estimates even in the presence of a small number of pilots.

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Tutte (1979) proved that the disconnected spanning subgraphs of a graph can be reconstructed from its vertex deck. This result is used to prove that if we can reconstruct a set of connected graphs from the shuffled edge deck (SED) then the vertex reconstruction conjecture is true. It is proved that a set of connected graphs can be reconstructed from the SED when all the graphs in the set are claw-free or all are P-4-free. Such a problem is also solved for a large subclass of the class of chordal graphs. This subclass contains maximal outerplanar graphs. Finally, two new conjectures, which imply the edge reconstruction conjecture, are presented. Conjecture 1 demands a construction of a stronger k-edge hypomorphism (to be defined later) from the edge hypomorphism. It is well known that the Nash-Williams' theorem applies to a variety of structures. To prove Conjecture 2, we need to incorporate more graph theoretic information in the Nash-Williams' theorem.

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A four step, efficient and general methodology for the conversion of a cyclic ketone into the corresponding alpha-spiro-beta-methylene-gamma-butyrolactone, the key structural feature present in tricyclic sesquiterpenes bakkanes, has been developed employing a regiospecific 5-exo dig radical cyclisation reaction as the key step. The methodology has been extended to the total synthesis of bakkanes including homogynolide-B and chiral homogynolide-A.

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With increased number of new services and users being added to the communication network, management of such networks becomes crucial to provide assured quality of service. Finding skilled managers is often a problem. To alleviate this problem and also to provide assistance to the available network managers, network management has to be automated. Many attempts have been made in this direction and it is a promising area of interest to researchers in both academia and industry. In this paper, a review of the management complexities in present day networks and artificial intelligence approaches to network management are presented. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

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Details of the first total syntheses of the sesquiterpenes myltayl-8(12)-ene and 6-epijunicedran-8-ol are described. The aldehyde 13, obtained by Claisen rearrangement of cyclogeraniol, was transformed into the dienones 12 and 18. Boron trifluoride-diethyl ether mediated cyclization and rearrangement transformed the dienones 12 and 18 into the tricyclic ketones 16 and 17, efficiently creating three and four contiguous quaternary carbon atoms, respectively. Wittig methylenation of 16 furnished (+/-)-myltayl-8(12)-ene (11), whereas reduction of the ketone 17 furnished (+/-)-6-epijunicedranol (23).

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This paper compares and analyzes the performance of distributed cophasing techniques for uplink transmission over wireless sensor networks. We focus on a time-division duplexing approach, and exploit the channel reciprocity to reduce the channel feedback requirement. We consider periodic broadcast of known pilot symbols by the fusion center (FC), and maximum likelihood estimation of the channel by the sensor nodes for the subsequent uplink cophasing transmission. We assume carrier and phase synchronization across the participating nodes for analytical tractability. We study binary signaling over frequency-flat fading channels, and quantify the system performance such as the expected gains in the received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the average probability of error at the FC, as a function of the number of sensor nodes and the pilot overhead. Our results show that a modest amount of accumulated pilot SNR is sufficient to realize a large fraction of the maximum possible beamforming gain. We also investigate the performance gains obtained by censoring transmission at the sensors based on the estimated channel state, and the benefits obtained by using maximum ratio transmission (MRT) and truncated channel inversion (TCI) at the sensors in addition to cophasing transmission. Simulation results corroborate the theoretical expressions and show the relative performance benefits offered by the various schemes.