Using samples to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of a surveillance process

Determining sensitivity and specificity of a postoperative infection surveillance process is a difficult undertaking. Because postoperative infections are rare, vast numbers of negative results exist, and it is often not reasonable to assess them all. This study gives a methodological framework for estimating sensitivity and specificity by taking only a small sample of the number of patients who test negative and comparing their findings to the reference or “gold standard” rather than comparing the findings of all patients to the gold standard. It provides a formula for deriving confidence intervals for these estimates and a guide to minimum requirements for sampling results.

Measuring building quality of shopping centres in Surabaya by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Quality has been an important factor for shopping centers in competitive conditions. However, quality measurement has no standard. In Surabaya, only two regional shopping centers will be measured in this research. The objective is assessing quality of shopping centers building using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and calculating the Building Quality Index. An overall ranking of Hierarchy priorities of quality criteria founded as a result from AHP analysis. Access and Circulation became the highest priority in affecting quality of shopping centers building according to respondents’ perception of quality. Weightened value as a result from comparison between two shopping centers as follows: Tunjungan Plaza get 0,732 point and Surabaya Plaza get 0,268 point. The first shopping center got higher weight than the second shopping center. The BQI for Tunjungan Plaza is 66% and for Surabaya Plaza is 64%.

Communication of business process models via virtual environment simulations

Games and related virtual environments have been a much-hyped area of the entertainment industry. The classic quote is that games are now approaching the size of Hollywood box office sales [1]. Books are now appearing that talk up the influence of games on business [2], and it is one of the key drivers of present hardware development. Some of this 3D technology is now embedded right down at the operating system level via the Windows Presentation Foundations – hit Windows/Tab on your Vista box to find out... In addition to this continued growth in the area of games, there are a number of factors that impact its development in the business community. Firstly, the average age of gamers is approaching the mid thirties. Therefore, a number of people who are in management positions in large enterprises are experienced in using 3D entertainment environments. Secondly, due to the pressure of demand for more computational power in both CPU and Graphical Processing Units (GPUs), your average desktop, any decent laptop, can run a game or virtual environment. In fact, the demonstrations at the end of this paper were developed at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) on a standard Software Operating Environment, with an Intel Dual Core CPU and basic Intel graphics option. What this means is that the potential exists for the easy uptake of such technology due to 1. a broad range of workers being regularly exposed to 3D virtual environment software via games; 2. present desktop computing power now strong enough to potentially roll out a virtual environment solution across an entire enterprise. We believe such visual simulation environments can have a great impact in the area of business process modeling. Accordingly, in this article we will outline the communication capabilities of such environments, giving fantastic possibilities for business process modeling applications, where enterprises need to create, manage, and improve their business processes, and then communicate their processes to stakeholders, both process and non-process cognizant. The article then concludes with a demonstration of the work we are doing in this area at QUT.

The Revised Transactional Model (RTM) of occupational stress and coping : an improved process approach

Despite more than three decades of research, there is a limited understanding of the transactional processes of appraisal, stress and coping. This has led to calls for more focused research on the entire process that underlies these variables. To date, there remains a paucity of such research. The present study examined Lazarus and Folkman’s (1984) transactional model of stress and coping. One hundred and twenty nine Australian participants with full time employment (i.e. nurses and administration employees) were recruited. There were 49 male (age mean = 34, SD = 10.51) and 80 female (age mean = 36, SD = 10.31) participants. The analysis of three path models indicated that in addition to the original paths, which were found in Lazarus and Folkman’s transactional model (primary appraisal-->secondary appraisal-->stress-->coping), there were also direct links between primary appraisal and stress level time one and between stress level time one to stress level time two. This study has provided additional insights into the transactional process which will extend our understanding of how individuals appraise, cope and experience occupational stress.

Correctness ensuring process configuration : an approach based on partner synthesis

A configurable process model describes a family of similar process models in a given domain. Such a model can be configured to obtain a specific process model that is subsequently used to handle individual cases, for instance, to process customer orders. Process configuration is notoriously difficult as there may be all kinds of interdependencies between configuration decisions.} In fact, an incorrect configuration may lead to behavioral issues such as deadlocks and livelocks. To address this problem, we present a novel verification approach inspired by the ``operating guidelines'' used for partner synthesis. We view the configuration process as an external service, and compute a characterization of all such services which meet particular requirements using the notion of configuration guideline. As a result, we can characterize all feasible configurations (i.\,e., configurations without behavioral problems) at design time, instead of repeatedly checking each individual configuration while configuring a process model.

Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Efficient and accurate retrieval of business process models through indexing

Recent years have seen an increased uptake of business process management technology in industries. This has resulted in organizations trying to manage large collections of business process models. One of the challenges facing these organizations concerns the retrieval of models from large business process model repositories. For example, in some cases new process models may be derived from existing models, thus finding these models and adapting them may be more effective than developing them from scratch. As process model repositories may be large, query evaluation may be time consuming. Hence, we investigate the use of indexes to speed up this evaluation process. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate that our proposal achieves a significant reduction in query evaluation time.

Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

Virtual Environment Visualisation of Executable Business Process Models

Business Process Modelling is a fast growing field in business and information technology, which uses visual grammars to model and execute the processes within an organisation. However, many analysts present such models in a 2D static and iconic manner that is difficult to understand by many stakeholders. Difficulties in understanding such grammars can impede the improvement of processes within an enterprise due to communication problems. In this chapter we present a novel framework for intuitively visualising animated business process models in interactive Virtual Environments. We also show that virtual environment visualisations can be performed with present 2D business process modelling technology, thus providing a low barrier to entry for business process practitioners. Two case studies are presented from film production and healthcare domains that illustrate the ease with which these visualisations can be created. This approach can be generalised to other executable workflow systems, for any application domain being modelled.

Collaborative business process modeling using 3D virtual environments

Process modeling is a complex organizational task that requires many iterations and communication between the business analysts and the domain specialists involved in the process modeling. The challenge of process modeling is exacerbated, when the process of modeling has to be performed in a cross-organizational, distributed environment. Some systems have been developed to support collaborative process modeling, all of which use traditional 2D interfaces. We present an environment for collaborative process modeling, using 3D virtual environment technology. We make use of avatar instantiations of user ego centres, to allow for the spatial embodiment of the user with reference to the process model. We describe an innovative prototype collaborative process modeling approach, implemented as a modeling environment in Second Life. This approach leverages the use of virtual environments to provide user context for editing and collaborative exercises. We present a positive preliminary report on a case study, in which a test group modelled a business process using the system in Second Life.

On the cognitive effectiveness of routing symbols in process modeling languages

Process models provide visual support for analyzing and improving complex organizational processes. In this paper, we discuss differences of process modeling languages using cognitive effectiveness considerations, to make statements about the ease of use and quality of user experience. Aspects of cognitive effectiveness are of importance for learning a modeling language, creating models, and understanding models. We identify the criteria representational clarity, perceptual discriminability, perceptual immediacy, visual expressiveness, and graphic parsimony to compare and assess the cognitive effectiveness of different modeling languages. We apply these criteria in an analysis of the routing elements of UML Activity Diagrams, YAWL, BPMN, and EPCs, to uncover their relative strengths and weaknesses from a quality of user experience perspective. We draw conclusions that are relevant to the usability of these languages in business process modeling projects.

An Integrative framework of the factors affecting process model understanding : a learning perspective

Process models are used by information professionals to convey semantics about the business operations in a real world domain intended to be supported by an information system. The understandability of these models is vital to them actually being used. After all, what is not understood cannot be acted upon. Yet until now, understandability has primarily been defined as an intrinsic quality of the models themselves. Moreover, those studies that looked at understandability from a user perspective have mainly conceptualized users through rather arbitrary sets of variables. In this paper we advance an integrative framework to understand the role of the user in the process of understanding process models. Building on cognitive psychology, goal-setting theory and multimedia learning theory, we identify three stages of learning required to realize model understanding, these being Presage, Process, and Product. We define eight relevant user characteristics in the Presage stage of learning, three knowledge construction variables in the Process stage and three potential learning outcomes in the Product stage. To illustrate the benefits of the framework, we review existing process modeling work to identify where our framework can complement and extend existing studies.

On the usage of labels and icons in business process modeling

The value of business process models is dependent not only on the choice of graphical elements in the model, but also on their annotation with additional textual and graphical information. This research discusses the use of text and icons for labeling the graphical constructs in a process model. We use two established verb classification schemes to examine the choice of activity labels in process modeling practice. Based on our findings, we synthesize a set of twenty-five activity label categories. We propose a systematic approach for graphically representing these label categories through the use of graphical icons, such that the resulting process models are easier and more readily understandable by end users. Our findings contribute to an ongoing stream of research investigating the practice of process modeling and thereby contribute to the body of knowledge about conceptual modeling quality overall.

Modelling the process of learning in economics

Student learning research literature has shown that students' learning approaches are influenced by the learning context (Evans, Kirby, & Fabrigar, 2003). Of the many contextual factors, assessment has been found to have the most important influence on the way students go about learning. For example, assessment that is perceived to required a low level of cognitive abilities will more likely elicit a learning approach that concentrate on reproductive learning activities. Moreover, assessment demand will also interact with learning approach to determine academic performance. In this paper an assessment specific model of learning comprising presage, process and product variables (Biggs, 2001) was proposed and tested against data obtained from a sample of introductory economics students (n=434). The model developed was used to empirically investigate the influence of learning inputs and learning approaches on academic performances across assessment types (essay assignment, multiple choice question exam and exam essay). By including learning approaches in the learning model, the mechanism through which learning inputs determine academic performance was examined. Methodological limitations of the study will also be discussed.