Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

Long duration response to levodopa in advanced Parkinson's disease patients treated with subthalamic deep brain stimulation

Résumé La levodopa (LD) est le traitement antiparkinsonien le plus efficace et le plus répandu. Son effet est composé d'une réponse de courte (quelques heures) et de longue durée (jours à semaines). La persistance de cette dernière dans les phases avancées de la maladie de Parkinson est controversée, et sa mesure directe n'a jamais été faite en raison des risques liés à un sevrage complet de LD. La stimulation du noyau sous-thalamique est un nouveau traitement neurochirurgical de la maladie de Parkinson, indiqué dans les formes avancées, qui permet l'arrêt complet du traitement médicamenteux chez certains patients. Nous avons étudié 30 patients qui ont bénéficié d'une telle stimulation, et les avons évalués avant l'intervention sans médicaments, et à 6 mois postopératoires, sans médicaments et sans stimulation. Chez 19 patients, la médication a pu être complètement arrêtée, alors qu'elle a dû être réintroduite chez les 11 patients restants. Au cours des 6 mois qui ont suivi l'intervention, le parkinsonisme s'est aggravé de façon significative dans le groupe sans LD, et non dans le groupe avec LD. Cette différence d'évolution s'explique par la perte de l'effet à long terme de la LD dans le groupe chez qui ce médicament a pu être arrêté. En comparant cette aggravation à la magnitude de l'effet à court terme, la réponse de longue durée correspond environ à 80 pourcent de la réponse de courte durée, et elle lui est inversement corrélée. Parmi les signes cardinaux de la maladie, la réponse de longue durée affecte surtout la bradycinésie et la rigidité, mais pas le tremblement ni la composante axiale. La comparaison du parkinsonisme avec traitement (stimulation et LD si applicable) ne montre aucune différence d'évolution entre les 2 groupes, suggérant que la stimulation compense tant la réponse de courte que de longue durée. Notre travail montre que la réponse de longue durée à la LD demeure significative chez les patients parkinsoniens après plus de 15 ans d'évolution, et suggère que la stimulation du noyau sous-thalamique compense les réponses de courte et de longue durée. Abstract Background: Long duration response to levodopa is supposed to decrease with Parkinson's disease (PD) progression, but direct observation of this response in advanced PD has never been performed. Objective: To study the long duration response to levodopa in advanced PD patients treated with subthalamic deep-brain stimulation. Design and settings: We studied 30 consecutive PD patients who underwent subthalamic deep-brain stimulation. One group had no antiparkinsonian treatment since surgery (no levodopa), while medical treatment had to be reinitiated in the other group (levodopa). Main outcome measures: motor Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). Results: In comparison with preoperative assessment, evaluation six months postoperatively with stimulation turned off for three hours found a worsening of the motor part of UPDRS in the no-levodopa group. This worsening being absent in the levodopa group, it most probably reflected the loss of the long duration response to levodopa in the no-levodopa group. Stimulation turned on, postoperative motor UPDRS in both groups were similar to preoperative on medication scores, suggesting that subthalamic deep-brain stimulation compensated for both the short and long duration responses to levodopa. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the long duration response to levodopa remains significant even in advanced PD, and that subthalamic deep-brain stimulation compensates for both the short and the long duration resposes to levodopa.

Consolidation whole abdomen irradiation following adjuvant carboplatin-paclitaxel based chemotherapy for advanced uterine epithelial cancer: feasibility, toxicity and outcomes.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate feasibility and preliminary outcomes associated with sequential whole abdomen irradiation (WAI) as consolidative treatment following comprehensive surgery and systemic chemotherapy for advanced endometrial cancer. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients treated at our institution from 2000 to 2011. Inclusion criteria were stage III-IV endometrial cancer patients with histological proof of one or more sites of extra-uterine abdomen-confined disease, treated with WAI as part of multimodal therapy. Endpoints were feasibility, acute toxicity, late effects, recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Twenty patients were identified. Chemotherapy consisted of 3 to 6 cycles of a platinum-paclitaxel regimen in 18 patients. WAI was delivered using conventional technique to a median total dose of 27.5 Gy. RESULTS: No grade 4 toxicities occurred during chemotherapy or radiotherapy. No radiation dose reduction was necessary. Three patients developed small bowel obstruction, all in the context of recurrent intraperitoneal disease. Kaplan-Meier estimates and 95% confidence intervals for RFS and OS at one year were 63% (38-80%) and 83% (56-94%) and at 3 years 57% (33-76%) and 62% (34-81%), respectively. On univariate Cox analysis, stage IVB and serous papillary (SP) histology were found to be statistically significantly (at the p = 0.05 level) associated with worse RFS and OS. The peritoneal cavity was the most frequent site of initial failure. CONCLUSIONS: Consolidative WAI following chemotherapy is feasible and can be performed without interruption with manageable acute and late toxicity. Patients with endometrioid adenocarcinoma, especially stage FIGO III, had favorable outcomes possibly meriting prospective evaluation of the addition of WAI following chemotherapy in selected patients. Patients with SP do poorly and do not routinely benefit from this approach.

Can resistance to trastuzumab be reversed by endocrine therapy? Combination of trastuzumab and letrozole after resistance to sequential trastuzumab and aromatase inhibitor monotherapies in patients with ER-positive, HER-2 positive, advanced breast cancer: a proof-of-concept trial (SAKK 23/03)

Introduction: Trastuzumab (T) is a cornerstone in the treatment of patients with HER2-overexpressing advanced breast cancer and development of resistance to T is a major therapeutic problem. HER-2 is part of a highly interactive signaling network that may impair efficacy of endocrine therapy. A sequential treatment design was chosen in this trial to ensure complete resistance to single agent therapy before receiving both a non-steroidal aromatase inhibitor (AI) and T. Any kind of clinical activity with combined treatment of AI and T after progression of single agent treatments could indicate restoration of sensitivity as a consequence of cross-talking and networking between both pathways. Methods: Key eligibility criteria included postmenopausal patients (pts.) with advanced, measurable, HER-2 positive (assessed by FISH, ratio (≥2)), HR positive disease and progression on prior treatment with a non-steroidal AI, e.g. letrozole or anastrozole, either in an adjuvant or advanced setting. Pts. received standard dose T monotherapy either weekly or three-weekly in step 1 and upon disease progression, continued T in combination with letrozole in step 2. The primary endpoint was clinical benefit response (CBR: CR, PR or SD for at least 24 weeks (+/- 1 week) according to RECIST) in step 2. Results: Thirteen pts. were enrolled in five centers in Switzerland. In step 1, six pts. (46%) achieved CBR. Median time to progression (TTP) was 161 days (Range: 50 - 627). Based on data collected until the end of May 2010, CBR was observed in seven out of the eleven evaluable pts. (64%) in step 2, including one pt. with partial response. Four of the seven pts. within step 2 that achieved CBR also had CBR in step 1. Seven out of eleven pts. have documented tumor progression during step 2 treatment. Median TTP for all eleven pts. was 184 days (range 61 - 471). Mean time on study treatment (TTP in step 1 plus TTP in step 2) for pts. reaching step 2 was 380 days (range 174 - 864). Adverse events were generally mild. Conclusion: Results of this proof-of-principle trial suggest that complete resistance to both AI and T can be overcome in a proportion of pts. by combined treatment of AI and T, as all pts. served as their own control. Our results appear promising for a new treatment strategy which offers a chemotherapy-free and well-tolerated option for at least a subset of the pts. with HR positive, HER-2 positive breast cancer. Further trials will need to corroborate this finding.

Interrelation among Economic Growth, Income Inequality, and Fiscal Performance: Evidence from Anglo-Saxon Countries

The interrelation among economic growth, income inequality, and fiscal performance is very complex. The paper provides the analysis of the interrelations among these variables jointly by the structural VAR methodology, examining also transmission channels among them. This approach allows exploring dynamic interactions among them and feedback effects on each other. The empirical analysis is implemented for the Anglo-Saxon countries, the UK, the USA, and Canada. We find that income inequality has negative effect on economic growth in the case of the UK. The effect is positive in the cases of the USA and Canada. The increase in income inequality worsens fiscal performance for all the countries

Decomposition of differences in PISA results in middle income countries

Programme for International Student Assessment

Comparisons of intensity-duration patterns of physical activity in the US, Jamaica and 3 African countries.

BACKGROUND: This difference in how populations living in low-, middle or upper-income countries accumulate daily PA, i.e. patterns and intensity, is an important part in addressing the global PA movement. We sought to characterize objective PA in 2,500 participants spanning the epidemiologic transition. The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a longitudinal study, in 5 countries. METS seeks to define the association between physical activity (PA), obesity and CVD risk in populations of African origin: Ghana (GH), South Africa (SA), Seychelles (SEY), Jamaica (JA) and the US (suburban Chicago). METHODS: Baseline measurements of objective PA, SES, anthropometrics and body composition, were completed on 2,500 men and women, aged 25-45 years. Moderate and vigorous PA (MVPA, min/d) on week and weekend days was explored ecologically, by adiposity status and manual labor. RESULTS: Among the men, obesity prevalence reflected the level of economic transition and was lowest in GH (1.7%) and SA (4.8%) and highest in the US (41%). SA (55%) and US (65%) women had the highest levels of obesity, compared to only 16% in GH. More men and women in developing countries engaged in manual labor and this was reflected by an almost doubling of measured MPVA among the men in GH (45 min/d) and SA (47 min/d) compared to only 28 min/d in the US. Women in GH (25 min/d), SA (21 min/d), JA (20 min/d) and SEY (20 min/d) accumulated significantly more MPVA than women in the US (14 min/d), yet this difference was not reflected by differences in BMI between SA, JA, SEY and US. Moderate PA constituted the bulk of the PA, with no study populations except SA men accumulating > 5 min/d of vigorous PA. Among the women, no sites accumulated >2 min/d of vigorous PA. Overweight/obese men were 22% less likely to engage in manual occupations. CONCLUSION: While there is some association for PA with obesity, this relationship is inconsistent across the epidemiologic transition and suggests that PA policy recommendations should be tailored for each environment.

Scandinavian companies of banking, retailing and hotel sectors investing into the Baltic States-developing service sector

Diplomityö tehtiin Lappeenrannan yliopistossa päätavoitteenaan selvittää tärkeimmät motiivit, jotka ovat saaneet pohjoismaiset palvelualan yrityksetinvestoimaan Baltian maiden kehittyvillä markkinoilla. Pohjoismaiset yritykset ovat olleet aiemmin aktiivisia hyödyntämään Baltian maiden työvoimaa tuotantosektorilla. Suomalaiset yritykset ovat investoineet aiemmin telekommunikaatio- sekävaatetussektoreihin, mutta nykyisin investointien pääpaino on siirtynyt palvelualalle. Pankkisektori on erittäin kehittynyt pohjoismaissa ja ruotsalaiset yritykset ovat onnistuneet myös Baltiassa siirtyen markkinoille yksityistämisen tuomien mahdollisuuksien avulla. Nykyisin näillä yrityksillä on vahva jalansija Virossa sekä ovat etabloituneet myös Latviaan ja Liettuaan. Suomalaiset pankkialan yritykset ovat olleet vaatimattomampia tällä sektorilla. Vähittäiskauppiaat ovat vasta kansainvälistymisprosessinsa alkutaipaleella. Suomalaiset yritykset ovat laajentuneet Viroon ja tehneet yhteistyötä ruotsalaisten yritysten kanssa. Hotellisektorilla suomalaiset ja ruotsalaiset ovat edenneet rauhallisesti, mutta norjalainen ketju, Reval Hotel, on laajentunut kaikkiin Baltian maihin. Hotellisektorilla on luvassa kasvua lähivuosina. Kilpailutilanne on kiristynyt kaikilla palvelualan sektoreilla sekä paikallisten yritysten kasvun että ulkomaisten investoijien myötä. Elinolojen paraneminen vaikuttaa myös kilpailutilanteeseen kiristävästi, sillä se luo mahdollisuuksia yrityksille laajentua. Tämä diplomityö selvittäätilannetta valittujen yritysten kannalta niiden kansainvälistymisen alkutaipaleella.

Développement et validation d'une méthode de calcul indépendant des unités moniteur basée sur les simulations Monte Carlo pour la vérification des traitements IMRT

Résumé : La radiothérapie par modulation d'intensité (IMRT) est une technique de traitement qui utilise des faisceaux dont la fluence de rayonnement est modulée. L'IMRT, largement utilisée dans les pays industrialisés, permet d'atteindre une meilleure homogénéité de la dose à l'intérieur du volume cible et de réduire la dose aux organes à risque. Une méthode usuelle pour réaliser pratiquement la modulation des faisceaux est de sommer de petits faisceaux (segments) qui ont la même incidence. Cette technique est appelée IMRT step-and-shoot. Dans le contexte clinique, il est nécessaire de vérifier les plans de traitement des patients avant la première irradiation. Cette question n'est toujours pas résolue de manière satisfaisante. En effet, un calcul indépendant des unités moniteur (représentatif de la pondération des chaque segment) ne peut pas être réalisé pour les traitements IMRT step-and-shoot, car les poids des segments ne sont pas connus à priori, mais calculés au moment de la planification inverse. Par ailleurs, la vérification des plans de traitement par comparaison avec des mesures prend du temps et ne restitue pas la géométrie exacte du traitement. Dans ce travail, une méthode indépendante de calcul des plans de traitement IMRT step-and-shoot est décrite. Cette méthode est basée sur le code Monte Carlo EGSnrc/BEAMnrc, dont la modélisation de la tête de l'accélérateur linéaire a été validée dans une large gamme de situations. Les segments d'un plan de traitement IMRT sont simulés individuellement dans la géométrie exacte du traitement. Ensuite, les distributions de dose sont converties en dose absorbée dans l'eau par unité moniteur. La dose totale du traitement dans chaque élément de volume du patient (voxel) peut être exprimée comme une équation matricielle linéaire des unités moniteur et de la dose par unité moniteur de chacun des faisceaux. La résolution de cette équation est effectuée par l'inversion d'une matrice à l'aide de l'algorithme dit Non-Negative Least Square fit (NNLS). L'ensemble des voxels contenus dans le volume patient ne pouvant être utilisés dans le calcul pour des raisons de limitations informatiques, plusieurs possibilités de sélection ont été testées. Le meilleur choix consiste à utiliser les voxels contenus dans le Volume Cible de Planification (PTV). La méthode proposée dans ce travail a été testée avec huit cas cliniques représentatifs des traitements habituels de radiothérapie. Les unités moniteur obtenues conduisent à des distributions de dose globale cliniquement équivalentes à celles issues du logiciel de planification des traitements. Ainsi, cette méthode indépendante de calcul des unités moniteur pour l'IMRT step-andshootest validée pour une utilisation clinique. Par analogie, il serait possible d'envisager d'appliquer une méthode similaire pour d'autres modalités de traitement comme par exemple la tomothérapie. Abstract : Intensity Modulated RadioTherapy (IMRT) is a treatment technique that uses modulated beam fluence. IMRT is now widespread in more advanced countries, due to its improvement of dose conformation around target volume, and its ability to lower doses to organs at risk in complex clinical cases. One way to carry out beam modulation is to sum smaller beams (beamlets) with the same incidence. This technique is called step-and-shoot IMRT. In a clinical context, it is necessary to verify treatment plans before the first irradiation. IMRT Plan verification is still an issue for this technique. Independent monitor unit calculation (representative of the weight of each beamlet) can indeed not be performed for IMRT step-and-shoot, because beamlet weights are not known a priori, but calculated by inverse planning. Besides, treatment plan verification by comparison with measured data is time consuming and performed in a simple geometry, usually in a cubic water phantom with all machine angles set to zero. In this work, an independent method for monitor unit calculation for step-and-shoot IMRT is described. This method is based on the Monte Carlo code EGSnrc/BEAMnrc. The Monte Carlo model of the head of the linear accelerator is validated by comparison of simulated and measured dose distributions in a large range of situations. The beamlets of an IMRT treatment plan are calculated individually by Monte Carlo, in the exact geometry of the treatment. Then, the dose distributions of the beamlets are converted in absorbed dose to water per monitor unit. The dose of the whole treatment in each volume element (voxel) can be expressed through a linear matrix equation of the monitor units and dose per monitor unit of every beamlets. This equation is solved by a Non-Negative Least Sqvare fif algorithm (NNLS). However, not every voxels inside the patient volume can be used in order to solve this equation, because of computer limitations. Several ways of voxel selection have been tested and the best choice consists in using voxels inside the Planning Target Volume (PTV). The method presented in this work was tested with eight clinical cases, which were representative of usual radiotherapy treatments. The monitor units obtained lead to clinically equivalent global dose distributions. Thus, this independent monitor unit calculation method for step-and-shoot IMRT is validated and can therefore be used in a clinical routine. It would be possible to consider applying a similar method for other treatment modalities, such as for instance tomotherapy or volumetric modulated arc therapy.

Weak Form Tests of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from CEE-Countries and Russian Stock Markets

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää Venäjän, Slovakian, Tsekin, Romanian, Bulgarian, Unkarin ja Puolan osakemarkkinoiden heikkojen ehtojen tehokkuutta. Tämä tutkielma on kvantitatiivinen tutkimus ja päiväkohtaiset indeksin sulkemisarvot kerättiin Datastreamin tietokannasta. Data kerättiin pörssien ensimmäisestä kaupankäyntipäivästä aina vuoden 2006 elokuun loppuun saakka. Analysoinnin tehostamiseksi dataa tutkittiin koko aineistolla, sekä kahdella aliperiodilla. Osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuutta on testattu neljällä tilastollisella metodilla, mukaan lukien autokorrelaatiotesti ja epäparametrinen runs-testi. Tavoitteena on myös selvittääesiintyykö kyseisillä markkinoilla viikonpäiväanomalia. Viikonpäiväanomalian esiintymistä tutkitaan käyttämällä pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää (OLS). Viikonpäiväanomalia on löydettävissä kaikilta edellä mainituilta osakemarkkinoilta paitsi Tsekin markkinoilta. Merkittävää, positiivista tai negatiivista autokorrelaatiota, on löydettävissä kaikilta osakemarkkinoilta, myös Ljung-Box testi osoittaa kaikkien markkinoiden tehottomuutta täydellä periodilla. Osakemarkkinoiden satunnaiskulku hylätään runs-testin perusteella kaikilta muilta paitsi Slovakian osakemarkkinoilla, ainakin tarkastellessa koko aineistoa tai ensimmäistä aliperiodia. Aineisto ei myöskään ole normaalijakautunut minkään indeksin tai aikajakson kohdalla. Nämä havainnot osoittavat, että kyseessä olevat markkinat eivät ole heikkojen ehtojen mukaan tehokkaita

The influence of the quality of government institutions on entrepreneurial motivation: exploring the variance across countries

Despite the increasing understanding of the relationships between institutions and entrepreneurship, the influence of the quality of government institutions on entrepreneurship is less addressed. This paper focuses on this critical determinant of entrepreneurship in developing and developed countries. Drawing from institutional theory we hypothesize and empirically assess the role of the quality of institutions in entrepreneurial activity. We examine how the quality of government institutions influences the rate of necessity-based entrepreneurial activity across countries and over time by using a cross-sectional time-series approach on data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) database covering the years 2001–2011. Our results suggest that higher economic development associated with better quality of institutions reduces the prevalence of necessity-based entrepreneurship. Our findings imply that developing countries must rationally organize their functions, and seek to remove unnecessary barriers, decrease political instability, and controls that hamper entrepreneurial activity

Validation of an Adapted French Form of the Career Adapt-Abilities Scale in four Francophone Countries

This study presents the validation of a French version of the Career Adapt-Abilities Scale in four Francophone countries. The aim was to re-analyze the item selection and then compare this newly developed French-language form with the international form 2.0. Exploratory factor analysis was used as a tool for item selection, and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) verified the structure of the CAAS French-language form. Measurement equivalence across the four countries was tested using multi-group CFA. Adults and adolescents (N=1,707) participated from Switzerland, Belgium, Luxembourg, and France. Items chosen for the final version of the CAAS French-language form are different to those in the CAAS international form 2.0 and provide an improvement in terms of reliability. The factor structure is replicable across country, age, and gender. Strong evidence for metric invariance and partial evidence for scalar invariance of the CAAS French-language form across countries is given. The CAAS French-language and CAAS international form 2.0 can be used in a combined form of 31 items. The CAAS French-language form will certainly be interesting for practitioners using interventions based on the life design paradigm or aiming at increasing career adapt-ability.

DFM(A)-Aspects of an Advanced Cable Gland Design

Nowadays typical motor junction boxes do not incorporate cable glands, which would provide good electrical performance interms of electromagnetic compatibility. In this paper, a manufacturability and assembly analysis for the new construction of a rigid body feeder cable junction of an electric motor is presented especially for converter drives (practical tests were carried out at LUT during 2007). Although the cable junction should also clamp the cable to provide enough tensile strength, the phase conductors should not get squashed by the groundingconnection. In order to ensure good performance in an electrical mean especially in converter drives, the grounding of the cable should be connected 360 degrees around the cable. In this paper, following manufacturing technologies are discussed: traditional turning, precision and centrifugal casting, and rotation moulding. DFM(A)-aspects are presented in detail.

Logistics Development in Finnish and Swedish Companies with Respect of Russia and Four Asian Countries: Traffic Flow and Warehousing Analysis from Current Situation and Likely Development Trends

On selvää, että tänä päivänä maailmankaupan painopiste on hiljalleen siirtymässä Aasiaan ja varsinkin Kiina on ollut huomion keskipisteessä. Erityisesti valmistavien yritysten perspektiivistä muutos on ollut merkittävä ja tämä tosiasia kasvattaa yrityksissä paineita luoda kustannustehokkaita toimitusketjuratkaisuja,joiden vasteaika on mahdollisimman lyhyt. Samaan aikaan kun tarkastellaan kuljetusvirtoja, huomattaan että maanosien välillä on suuri epätasapaino. Tämä on enimmäkseen seurausta suurten globaalisti toimivien yritysten toimitusketjustrategioista. Useimmat näistä toimijoista optimoivat verkostonsa turvautumalla 'paikalliseen hankintaan', jotta he voisivat paremmin hallita toimitusketjujaan ja saada näitä reagointiherkimmiksi. Valmistusyksiköillä onkin monesti Euroopassa pakko käyttää kalliita raaka-aineita ja puolivalmisteita. Kriittisiksi tekijöiksi osoittautuvat kuljetus- ja varastointikustannukset sekä näiden seurauksena hukka-aika, joka aiheutuu viivästyksistä. Voidakseen saavuttaa optimiratkaisun, on tehtävä päätös miten tuotteet varastoidaan: keskitetysti tai hajautetusti ja integroida tämä valinta sopivien kuljetusmuotojen kanssa. Aasiasta Pohjois-Eurooppaan on halpaa käyttää merikuljetusta, mutta operaatio kestää hyvin pitkään - joissain tapauksessa jopa kahdeksan viikkoa. Toisaalta lentokuljetus on sekä kallis että rajoittaa siirrettävien tuotteiden eräkokoa.On olemassa kolmaskin vaihtoehto, josta voisi olla ratkaisuksi: rautatiekuljetus on halvempi kuin lentokuljetus ja vasteajat ovat lyhyemmät kuin merikuljetuksissa. Tässä tutkimuksessa tilannetta selvitetään kyselyllä, joka suunnattiin Suomessa ja Ruotsissa toimiville yrityksille. Tuloksien perusteella teemme johtopäätökset siitä, mitkä kuljetusmuotojen markkinaosuudet tulevat olemaan tulevaisuudessa sekä luomme kuvan kuljetusvirroista Euroopan, Venäjän, Etelä-Korea, Intian, Kiinan ja Japanin välillä. Samalla on tarkoitus ennakoida sitä, miten tarkastelun kohteena olevat yritykset aikovat kehittää kuljetuksiaan ja varastointiaan tulevien vuosien aikana. Tulosten perusteella näyttää siltä, että seuraavan viiden vuoden kuluessa kuljetuskustannukset eivät merkittävissä määrin tule muuttuman ja meri- sekä kumipyöräkuljetukset pysyvät suosituimpina vaihtoehtoina.Kuitenkin lentokuljetusten osuus laskee hiukan, kun taas rautatiekuljetusten painotus kasvaa. Tulokset paljastavat, että Kiinassa ja Venäjällä kuljetettava konttimäärä kasvaa; Intiassa tulos on saman suuntainen, joskaan ei niin voimakas. Analyysimme mukaan kuljetusvirtoihin liittyvä epätasapaino säilyy Venäjän kuljetusten suhteen: yritykset jatkavat tulevaisuudessakin vientiperusteista strategiaansa. Varastoinnin puolella tunnistamme pienemmän muutoksen, jonka mukaan pienikokoisten varastojen määrät todennäköisesti vähenevät tulevaisuudessa ja kiinnostus isoja varastoja kohtaan lisääntyy. Tässä kohtaa on mainittava, että suomalaisilla yrityksillä on enemmän varastoja Keski- ja Itä-Euroopassa verrattuna ruotsalaisiin toimijoihin, jotka keskittyvät selkeämmin Länsi-Euroopan maihin. Varastoja yrityksillä on molemmissa tapaukissa paljolti kotimaassaan. Valitessaan varastojensa sijoituskohteita yritykset painottavat seuraavia kriteereitä: alhaiset jakelukustannukset, kokoamispaikan/valmistustehtaan läheisyys, saapuvan logistiikan integroitavuus ja saatavilla olevat logistiikkapalvelut. Tutkimuksemme lopussa päädymme siihen, että varastojen sijoituspaikat eivät muutu satamien rakenteen ja liikenneyhteyksien takia kovinkaan nopeasti.