What is the role of design-led innovation and design-led prototyping in developing novel business models?

Recently, ‘business model’ and ‘business model innovation’ have gained substantial attention in management literature and practice. However, many firms lack the capability to develop a novel business model to capture the value from new technologies. Existing literature on business model innovation highlights the central role of ‘customer value’. Further, it suggests that firms need to experiment with different business models and engage in ‘trail-and-error’ learning when participating in business model innovation. Trial-and error processes and prototyping with tangible artifacts are a fundamental characteristic of design. This conceptual paper explores the role of design-led innovation in facilitating firms to conceive and prototype novel and meaningful business models. It provides a brief review of the conceptual discussion on business model innovation and highlights the opportunities for linking it with the research stream of design-led innovation. We propose design-led business model innovation as a future research area and highlight the role of design-led prototyping and new types of artifacts and prototypes play within it. We present six propositions in order to outline future research avenues.

Lifestyle risk factor modification in midlife women with type 2 diabetes : theoretical modelling of perceived barriers

Objective: The aim of this paper is to propose a ‘Perceived barriers and lifestyle risk factor modification model’ that could be incorporated into existing frameworks for diabetes education to enhance lifestyle risk factor education in women. Setting: Diabetes education, community health. Primary argument: ‘Perceived barriers’ is a health promotion concept that has been found to be a significant predictor of health promotion behaviour. There is evidence that women face a range of perceived barriers that prevent them from engaging in healthy lifestyle activities. Despite this, current evidence based models of diabetes education do not explicitly incorporate the concept of perceived barriers. A model of risk factor reduction that incorporates ‘perceived barriers’ is proposed. Conclusion: Although further research is required, current approaches to risk factor reduction in type 2 diabetes could be enhanced by identification and goal setting to reduce an individual’s perceived barriers.

The benefits of tree-based models for stock selection

The identification of the primary drivers of stock returns has been of great interest to both financial practitioners and academics alike for many decades. Influenced by classical financial theories such as the CAPM (Sharp, 1964; Lintner, 1965) and APT (Ross, 1976), a linear relationship is conventionally assumed between company characteristics as derived from their financial accounts and forward returns. Whilst this assumption may be a fair approximation to the underlying structural relationship, it is often adopted for the purpose of convenience. It is actually quite rare that the assumptions of distributional normality and a linear relationship are explicitly assessed in advance even though this information would help to inform the appropriate choice of modelling technique. Non-linear models have nevertheless been applied successfully to the task of stock selection in the past (Sorensen et al, 2000). However, their take-up by the investment community has been limited despite the fact that researchers in other fields have found them to be a useful way to express knowledge and aid decision-making...

Pedigree-free animal models : the relatedness matrix reloaded

Animal models typically require a known genetic pedigree to estimate quantitative genetic parameters. Here we test whether animal models can alternatively be based on estimates of relatedness derived entirely from molecular marker data. Our case study is the morphology of a wild bird population, for which we report estimates of the genetic variance-covariance matrices (G) of six morphological traits using three methods: the traditional animal model; a molecular marker-based approach to estimate heritability based on Ritland's pairwise regression method; and a new approach using a molecular genealogy arranged in a relatedness matrix (R) to replace the pedigree in an animal model. Using the traditional animal model, we found significant genetic variance for all six traits and positive genetic covariance among traits. The pairwise regression method did not return reliable estimates of quantitative genetic parameters in this population, with estimates of genetic variance and covariance typically being very small or negative. In contrast, we found mixed evidence for the use of the pedigree-free animal model. Similar to the pairwise regression method, the pedigree-free approach performed poorly when the full-rank R matrix based on the molecular genealogy was employed. However, performance improved substantially when we reduced the dimensionality of the R matrix in order to maximize the signal to noise ratio. Using reduced-rank R matrices generated estimates of genetic variance that were much closer to those from the traditional model. Nevertheless, this method was less reliable at estimating covariances, which were often estimated to be negative. Taken together, these results suggest that pedigree-free animal models can recover quantitative genetic information, although the signal remains relatively weak. It remains to be determined whether this problem can be overcome by the use of a more powerful battery of molecular markers and improved methods for reconstructing genealogies.

A micro-simulation of airport passengers with advanced traits

An approach for modeling passenger flows in airport terminals by a set of devised advanced traits of passengers is proposed. Advanced traits take into account a passenger’s cognitive preferences which would be the underlying motivations of route-choice decisions. Basic traits are the status of passengers such as travel class. Although the activities of passengers are normally regarded as stochastic and sometimes unpredictable, we advise that real scenarios of passenger flows are basically feasible to be compared with virtual simulations in terms of tactical route-choice decision-making by individual personals. Inside airport terminals, passengers are goal-directed and not only use standard processing check points but also behave discretionary activities during the course. In this paper, we integrated discretionary activities in the study to fulfill full-range of passenger flows. In the model passengers are built as intelligent agents who possess a bunch of initial basic traits and then can be categorized into ten distinguish groups in terms of route-choice preferences by inferring the results of advanced traits. An experiment is executed to demonstrate the capability to facilitate predicting passenger flows.

Comparison and modification of car following models toward a more accurate microscopic simulation parameters reproduction

Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers of motor vehicles exhibit safe behaviours. Several car-following models are used in various micro-simulation models. This research compares the mainstream car following models’ capabilities of emulating precise driver behaviour parameters such as headways and Time to Collisions. The comparison firstly illustrates which model is more robust in the metric reproduction. Secondly, the study conducted a series of sensitivity tests to further explore the behaviour of each model. Based on the outcome of these two steps exploration of the models, a modified structure and parameters adjustment for each car-following model is proposed to simulate more realistic vehicle movements, particularly headways and Time to Collision, below a certain critical threshold. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the modified models performance to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. The simulation tests outcomes indicate that the proposed modified models produce better frequency of critical Time to Collision than the generic models, while the improvement on the headway is not significant. The outcome of this paper facilitates traffic safety assessment using microscopic simulation.

Advanced numerical characterization of silicon with defect by nanoindentation

Nano silicon is widely used as the essential element of complementary metal–oxide–semiconductor (CMOS) and solar cells. It is recognized that today, large portion of world economy is built on electronics products and related services. Due to the accessible fossil fuel running out quickly, there are increasing numbers of researches on the nano silicon solar cells. The further improvement of higher performance nano silicon components requires characterizing the material properties of nano silicon. Specially, when the manufacturing process scales down to the nano level, the advanced components become more and more sensitive to the various defects induced by the manufacturing process. It is known that defects in mono-crystalline silicon have significant influence on its properties under nanoindentation. However, the cost involved in the practical nanoindentation as well as the complexity of preparing the specimen with controlled defects slow down the further research on mechanical characterization of defected silicon by experiment. Therefore, in current study, the molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are employed to investigate the mono-crystalline silicon properties with different pre-existing defects, especially cavities, under nanoindentation. Parametric studies including specimen size and loading rate, are firstly conducted to optimize computational efficiency. The optimized testing parameters are utilized for all simulation in defects study. Based on the validated model, different pre-existing defects are introduced to the silicon substrate, and then a group of nanoindentation simulations of these defected substrates are carried out. The simulation results are carefully investigated and compared with the perfect Silicon substrate which used as benchmark. It is found that pre-existing cavities in the silicon substrate obviously influence the mechanical properties. Furthermore, pre-existing cavities can absorb part of the strain energy during loading, and then release during unloading, which possibly causes less plastic deformation to the substrate. However, when the pre-existing cavities is close enough to the deformation zone or big enough to exceed the bearable stress of the crystal structure around the spherical cavity, the larger plastic deformation occurs which leads the collapse of the structure. Meanwhile, the influence exerted on the mechanical properties of silicon substrate depends on the location and size of the cavity. Substrate with larger cavity size or closer cavity position to the top surface, usually exhibits larger reduction on Young’s modulus and hardness.

How should Australia regulate voluntary euthanasia and assisted suicide?

The purpose of this paper is to provide a basis from which to start an informed and rational dialogue in Australia about voluntary euthanasia (VE) and assisted suicide (AS). It does this by seeking to chart the broad landscape of issues that can be raised as relevant to how this conduct should be regulated by the law. It is not our purpose to persuade. Rather, we have attempted to address the issues as neutrally as possible and to canvass both sides of the argument in an even-handed manner. We hope that this exercise places the reader in a position to consider the question posed by this paper: How should Australia regulate voluntary euthanasia and assisted suicide? In line with the approach taken in the paper, this question does not take sides in the debate. It simply asks how VE and AS should be regulated, acknowledging that both prohibition and legalisation of such conduct involve regulation. We begin by considering the wider legal framework that governs end of life decision-making. Decisions to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatment that result in a person’s death can be lawful. This could be because, for example, a competent adult refuses such treatment. Alternatively, stopping or not providing treatment can be lawful when it is no longer in a person’s best interests to receive it. The law also recognises that appropriate palliative care should not attract criminal responsibility. By contrast, VE and AS are unlawful in Australia and could lead to prosecution for crimes such as murder, manslaughter or aiding and abetting suicide. But this is not to say that such conduct does not occur in practice. Indeed, there is a body of evidence that VE and AS occur in Australia, despite them being unlawful. There have been repeated efforts to change the law in this country, mainly by the minor political parties. However, apart from a brief period when VE and AS was lawful in the Northern Territory, these attempts to reform the law have been unsuccessful. The position is different in a small but increasing number of jurisdictions overseas where such conduct is lawful. The most well known is the Netherlands but there are also statutory regimes that regulate VE and/or AS in Belgium and Luxembourg in Europe, and Oregon and Washington in the United States. A feature of these legislative models is that they incorporate review or oversight processes that enable the collection of data about how the law is being used. As a result, there is a significant body of evidence that is available for consideration to assess the operation of the law in these jurisdictions and some of this is considered briefly here. Assisting a suicide, if done for selfless motives, is also legal in Switzerland, and this has resulted in what has been referred to as ‘euthanasia tourism’. This model is also considered. The paper also identifies the major arguments in favour of, and against, legalisation of VE and AS. Arguments often advanced in favour of law reform include respect for autonomy, that public opinion favours reform, and that the current law is incoherent and discriminatory. Key arguments against legalising VE and AS point to the sanctity of life, concerns about the adequacy and effectiveness of safeguards, and a ‘slippery slope’ that will allow euthanasia to occur for minors or for adults where it is not voluntary. We have also attempted to step beyond these well trodden and often rehearsed cases ‘for and against’. To this end, we have identified some ethical values that might span both sides of the debate and perhaps be the subject of wider consensus. We then outline a framework for considering the issue of how Australia should regulate VE and AS. We begin by asking whether such conduct should be criminal acts (as they presently are). If VE and AS should continue to attract criminal responsibility, the next step is to enquire whether the law should punish such conduct more or less than is presently the case, or whether the law should stay the same. If a change is favoured as to how the criminal law punishes VE and AS, options considered include sentencing reform, creating context-specific offences or developing prosecutorial guidelines for how the criminal justice system deals with these issues. If VE and AS should not be criminal acts, then questions arise as to how and when they should be permitted and regulated. Possible elements of any reform model include: ensuring decision-making is competent and voluntary; ascertaining a person’s eligibility to utilise the regime, for example, whether it depends on him or her having a terminal illness or experiencing pain and suffering; and setting out processes for how any decision must be made and evidenced. Options to bring about decriminalisation include challenging the validity of laws that make VE and AS unlawful, recognising a defence to criminal prosecution, or creating a statutory framework to regulate the practice. We conclude the paper where we started: with a call for rational and informed consideration of a difficult and sensitive issue. How should Australia regulate voluntary euthanasia and assisted suicide?

The Impact of Indigenous status on adult sentencing : a review of the statistical research literature.

The gross overrepresentation of Indigenous peoples in prison populations suggests that sentencing may be a discriminatory process. Using findings from recent (1991–2011) multivariate statistical sentencing analyses from the United States, Canada, and Australia, we review the 3 key hypotheses advanced as plausible explanations for baseline sentencing discrepancies between Indigenous and non-Indigenous adult criminal defendants: (a) differential involvement, (b) negative discrimination, and (c) positive discrimination. Overall, the prior research shows strong support for the differential involvement thesis and some support for the discrimination theses (positive and negative). We argue that where discrimination is found, it may be explained by the lack of a more complete set of control variables in researchers’ multivariate models and/or differing political and social contexts.

A visual language for the collaborative visualization of integrated conceptual models in product development scenarios

In various industrial and scientific fields, conceptual models are derived from real world problem spaces to understand and communicate containing entities and coherencies. Abstracted models mirror the common understanding and information demand of engineers, who apply conceptual models for performing their daily tasks. However, most standardized models in Process Management, Product Lifecycle Management and Enterprise Resource Planning lack of a scientific foundation for their notation. In collaboration scenarios with stakeholders from several disciplines, tailored conceptual models complicate communication processes, as a common understanding is not shared or implemented in specific models. To support direct communication between experts from several disciplines, a visual language is developed which allows a common visualization of discipline-specific conceptual models. For visual discrimination and to overcome visual complexity issues, conceptual models are arranged in a three-dimensional space. The visual language introduced here follows and extends established principles of Visual Language science.

An overview of CARRS-Q’s advanced driving simulator

The global road safety problem The role of human factors in road crashes The use of driving simulators in road safety research The CARRS-Q advanced driving simulator –Functionality –Problems encountered and related solutions Past and current projects using the driving simulator Limitations of driving simulators

Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems

Dengue fever is one of the world’s most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many factors including urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative techniques are primarily based on controlling mosquito vectors as other prophylactic measures, such as a tetravalent vaccine are unlikely to be available in the foreseeable future. However, the continually increasing dengue incidence suggests that this strategy alone is not sufficient. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of accurately predicting disease outbreaks. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

An interactive and adaptive building layer : strategies for allowing people to become advanced building-users

This paper reports outcomes of a pilot study to develop a conceptual framework to allow people to retrofit a building-layer to gain better control of their own built- environments. The study was initiated by the realisation that discussions surrounding the improvement of building performances tend to be about top-down technological solutions rather than to help and encourage bottom-up involvement of building-users. While users are the ultimate beneficiaries and their feedback is always appreciated, their direct involvements in managing buildings would often be regarded as obstruction or distraction. This is largely because casual interventions by uninformed building-users tend to disrupt the system. Some earlier researches showed however that direct and active participation of users could improve the building performance if appropriate training and/or systems were introduced. We also speculate this in long run would also make the built environment more sustainable. With this in mind, we looked for opportunities to retrofit our own office with an interactive layer to study how we could introduce ad-hoc systems for building-users. The aim of this paper is to describe our vision and initial attempts followed by discussion.

Emergency Health Services (EHS) : demand and service delivery models. [Monograph 2 : Queensland EHS users’ profile]

Emergency health is a critical component of Australia’s health system and one which is increasingly congested from growing demand and blocked access to inpatient beds. The Emergency Health Services Queensland (EHSQ) study aims to identify the factors driving increased demand for emergency health and to evaluate strategies which may safely reduce the future demand growth. This monograph addresses the characteristics of users of emergency health services with an aim to identify those that appear to contribute to demand growth. This study utilises data on patients treated by Emergency Departments (ED) and Queensland Ambulance Service (QAS) across Queensland. ED data was derived from the Emergency Department Information System (EDIS) for the period 2001-02 through to 2010-11. Ambulance data was extracted from the QAS’ Ambulance Information Management System (AIMS) and electronic Ambulance Report Form (eARF) for the period 2001-02 through to 2009-10. Due to discrepancies and comparability issues for ED data, this monograph compares data from the 2003-04 time period with 2010-11 data for 21 of the reporting EDs. Also a snapshot of users for the 2010-11 financial year for 31 reporting EDs is used to describe the characteristics of users and to compare those characteristics with population demographics. For QAS data, the 2002-03 and 2009-10 time periods were selected for detailed analyses to identify trends. • Demand for emergency health care services is increasing, representing both increased population and increased relative utilisation. Per capita demand for ED attention has increased by 2% per annum over the last decade and for ambulance attention by 3.7% per annum. • The growth in ED demand is prominent in more urgent triage categories with actual decline in less urgent patients. An estimated 55% of patients attend hospital EDs outside of normal working hours. There is no evidence that patients presenting out of hours are significantly different to those presenting within working hours; they have similar triage assessments and outcomes. • Patients suffering from injuries and poisoning comprise 28% of the ED workload (an increase of 65% in the study period), whilst declines of 32% in cardiovascular and circulatory conditions, and musculoskeletal problems have been observed. • 25.6% of patients attending EDs are admitted to hospital. 19% of admitted patients and 7% of patients who die in the ED are triage category 4 or 5 on arrival. • The average age of ED patients is 35.6 years. Demand has grown in all age groups and amongst both men and women. Men have higher utilisation rates for ED in all age groups. The only group where the growth rate in women has exceeded men is in the 20-29 age group; this growth is particularly in the injury and poisoning categories. • Considerable attention has been paid publicly to ED performance criteria. It is worth noting that 50% of all patients were treated within 33 minutes of arrival. • Patients from lower socioeconomic areas appear to have higher utilisation rates and the utilisation rate for indigenous people appears to exceed those of European and other backgrounds. The utilisation rates for immigrant people is generally less than that of Australian born however it has not been possible to eliminate the confounding impact of different age and socioeconomic profiles. • Demand for ambulance service is also increasing at a rate that exceeds population growth. Utilisation rates have increased by an average of 5% per annum in Queensland compared to 3.6% nationally, and the utilisation rate in Queensland is 27% higher than the national average. • The growth in ambulance utilisation has also been amongst the more urgent categories of dispatch and utilisation rates are higher in rural and regional areas than in the metropolitan area. The demand for ambulance increases with age but the growth in demand for ambulance service has been more prominent in younger age groups. These findings contribute significantly to an understanding of the growth in demand for emergency health. It shows that the growth is amongst patients in genuine need of emergency healthcare and public rhetoric that the congestion of emergency health services is due to inappropriate attendees is unable to be substantiated. The consistency of the growth in demand over the last decade reflects not only the changing demographics of the Australian population but also the changes in health status, standards of acute health care and other social factors. The growth is also amongst patients with acute injury and poisoning which is inconsistent with rates of chronic disease as a fundamental driver. We have also interviewed patients in regard to their decision making choices for acute health care and the factors that influence these decisions and this will be the subject of a third Monograph and publications.