Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

Shallow-level migmatization of gabbros in a metamorphic contact aureole, Fuerteventura Basal Complex, Canary Islands

Migmatization of gabbroic rocks at 2-3 kbar has occurred in the metamorphic contact aureole of a mafic pluton in the Fuerteventura Basal Complex (Canary Island;). Migmatites are characterized by a dense network: of closely spaced millimetre-wide leucocratic veins with perfectly preserved igneous textures. They are all relatively enriched in Al, Na I: Sr Ba, Nb, Y and the rare earth elements compared with the unaffected country rock beyond the aureole. Migmatization under such low-pressure conditions war possible because of the unusual tectonic and magmatic contact in which ii occurred. Multiple basic intrusions associated with extrusive volcanic activity created high heat flow in a small area. Alkaline and metasomatized rocks present in the country rock of the intruding pluton were leached by high-temperature fluids during contact metamorphism. These enriched fluids then favoured partial melting of the host gabbroic rocks, and contaminated both the leucosomes and melanosomes. A transpressive tectonic setting at the time of intrusion created shearing along the contact between the intrusion and its host rock. This shearing enhanced circulation of the fluids and allowed segregation of the nea-formed melts from their restite by opening tension veins into which the melts migrated. Depending on the relative timing of melt segregation and recrystallization leucosomes range in composition from a 40-60% mixture of clinopyroxene (+/- amphibole) and plagioclase to almost pure feldspathic veins. Comparable occurrences of gabbros migmatized at low pressure are expected only at a snail scale in localized areas of high heat flow in the presence of fluids, such as in. mid-ocean ridges or ocean-islands.

Combinatorial Synthesis and Biological Evaluation of Inhibitors of D-Ala-D-Ala-Ligase

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Max Planck Institut of Molecular Phisiology, Germany, from 2006 to 2008.The work carried out during this postdoctoral stage was focused on two different projects. Firstly, identification of D-Ala D-Ala Inhibitors and the development of new synthethic approaches to obtain lipidated peptides and proteins and the use of these lipidated proteins in biological and biophysical studies. In the first project, new D-Ala D-Ala inhibitors were identified by using structural alignments of the ATP binding sites of the bacterial ligase DDl and protein and lipid kinases in complex with ATP analogs. We tested a series of commercially available kinase inhibitors and found LFM-A13 and Tyrphostine derivatives to inhibit DDl enzyme activity. Based on the initial screening results we synthesized a series of malononitrilamide and salicylamide derivatives and were able to confirm the validity of these scaffolds as inhibitors of DDl. From this investigation we gained a better understanding of the structural requirements and limitations necessary for the preparation of ATP competitive DDl inhibitors. The compounds in this study may serve as starting points for the development of bi-substrate inhibitors that incorporate both, an ATP competitive and a substrate competitive moiety. Bisubstrate inhibitors that block the ATP and D-Ala binding sites should exhibit enhanced selectivity and potency profiles by preferentially inhibiting DDl over kinases. In the second project, an optimized synthesis for tha alkylation of cysteins using the thiol ene reaction was establisehd. This new protocol allowed us to obtain large amounts of hexadecylated cysteine that was required for the synthesis of differently lipidated peptides. Afterwards the synthesis of various N-ras peptides bearing different lipid anchors was performed and the peptides were ligated to a truncated N-ras protein. The influence of this differently lipidated N-ras proteins on the partioning and association of N-Ras in model membrane subdomains was studied using Atomic Force Microscopy.

Solid-phase synthesis and NMR studies of modified oligonucleotides forming triplex helix and of oligonucleopeptides mimicking the topoisomerase I-DNA covalent complex

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Institut de Biologia Molecular de Barcelona of the CSIC –state agency – from april until september 2007. Topoisomerase I is an essential nuclear enzyme that modulates the topological status of DNA, facilitating DNA helix unwinding during replication and transcription. We have prepared the oligonucleotide-peptide conjugate Ac-NLeu-Asn-Tyr(p-3’TTCAGAAGC5’)-LeuC-CONH-(CH2)6-OH as model compound for NMR studies of the Topoisomerase I- DNA complex. Special attention was made on the synthetic aspects for the preparation of this challenging compound especially solid supports and protecting groups. The desired peptide was obtained although we did not achieve the amount of the conjugate needed for NMR studies. Most probably the low yield is due to the intrinsic sensitive to hydrolysis of the phosphate bond between oligonucleotide and tyrosine. We have started the synthesis and the structural characterization of oligonucleotides carrying intercalating compounds. At the present state we have obtained model duplex and quadruplex sequences modified with acridine and NMR studies are underway. In addition to this project we have successfully resolved the structure of a fusion peptide derived from hepatitis C virus envelope synthesized by the group of Dr. Haro and we have synthesized and started the characterization of a modified G-quadruplex.

Evaluation of prenatal ultrasound diagnosis of fetal abdominal wall defects by 19 European registries.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the current effectiveness of routine prenatal ultrasound screening in detecting gastroschisis and omphalocele in Europe. DESIGN: Data were collected by 19 congenital malformation registries from 11 European countries. The registries used the same epidemiological methodology and registration system. The study period was 30 months (July 1st 1996-December 31st 1998) and the total number of monitored pregnancies was 690,123. RESULTS: The sensitivity of antenatal ultrasound examination in detecting omphalocele was 75% (103/137). The mean gestational age at the first detection of an anomaly was 18 +/- 6.0 gestational weeks. The overall prenatal detection rate for gastroschisis was 83% (88/106) and the mean gestational age at diagnosis was 20 +/- 7.0 gestational weeks. Detection rates varied between registries from 25 to 100% for omphalocele and from 18 to 100% for gastroschisis. Of the 137 cases of omphalocele less than half of the cases were live births (n = 56; 41%). A high number of cases resulted in fetal deaths (n = 30; 22%) and termination of pregnancy (n = 51; 37%). Of the 106 cases of gastroschisis there were 62 (59%) live births, 13 (12%) ended with intrauterine fetal death and 31 (29%) had the pregnancies terminated. CONCLUSIONS: There is significant regional variation in detection rates in Europe reflecting different policies, equipment and the operators' experience. A high proportion of abdominal wall defects is associated with concurrent malformations, syndromes or chromosomal abnormalities, stressing the need for the introduction of repeated detailed ultrasound examination as a standard procedure. There is still a relatively high rate of elective termination of pregnancies for both defects, even in isolated cases which generally have a good prognosis after surgical repair.

The mouse Lyt-2/3 antigen complex--II. Structural analysis of the subunits.

Surface- or biosynthetically labeled Lyt-2/3 antigens were isolated from cell lysates by immunoprecipitation and affinity chromatography with a monoclonal antibody. Tryptic digests of the individual subunits of 37,000, 32,000 and 28,000 apparent mol. wts were analysed by reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography and by two-dimensional peptide mapping. The results indicate that the 37,000 and 32,000 mol. wt components are structurally very similar whereas the 28,000 mol. wt component appears as a different molecule.

Pets as the main source of two zoonotic species of the Trichophyton mentagrophytes complex in Switzerland, Arthroderma vanbreuseghemii and Arthroderma benhamiae

In cases of highly inflammatory dermatophytosis in humans, it is important to identify the possible source of animal transmission in order to prevent recurrence, family outbreaks or rapidly progressing epidemics. A survey of dermatophytes in pets during a 14-month period in Switzerland revealed, in addition to Microsporum canis, two different species of the Trichophyton mentagrophytes complex, Arthroderma benhamiae and Arthroderma vanbreuseghemii, all causing inflammatory dermatophytoses. Arthroderma benhamiae was only and frequently isolated from guinea pigs. Arthroderma vanbreuseghemii was isolated mainly from European short hair cats, but also from dogs and in one case from a pure-bred cat. Ninety-three percent of the cats carrying A. vanbreuseghemii were hunters and all had skin lesions. In contrast, cats with skin lesions that were strictly indoors were found to be almost exclusively infected by M. canis. Therefore, it can be suspected that infection with A. vanbreuseghemii occurred during hunting and that the natural source of this dermatophyte is either soil or an animal other than the cat, most probably a rodent.

Structure of a multisubunit complex that promotes DNA branch migration.

The RuvA and RuvB proteins of Escherichia coli, which are induced in response to DNA damage, are important in the formation of heteroduplex DNA during genetic recombination and related recombinational repair processes. In vitro studies show that RuvA binds Holiday junctions and acts as a specificity factor that targets the RuvB ATPase, a hexameric ring protein, to the junction. Together, RuvA and RuvB promote branch migration, an ATP-dependent reaction that increases the length of the heteroduplex DNA. Electron microscopic visualization of RuvAB now provides a new insight into the mechanism of this process. We observe the formation of a tripartite protein complex in which RuvA binds the crossover and is sandwiched between two hexameric rings of RuvB. The Holliday junction within this complex adopts a square-planar structure. We propose a molecular model for branch migration, a unique feature of which is the role played by the two oppositely oriented RuvB ring motors.

Administering brief motivational interventions to young men: Results from a pilot census transmissible study among 19 year-old francophone Swiss men.

AIMS - To pilot the implementation of brief motivational intervention (BMI) among conscripts, and to test the effectiveness of BMI in young men voluntarily showing up for a single face-to-face alcohol BMI session. Participants were conscripts attending the army recruitment process in Lausanne. This process is mandatory for all Swiss males at age 19 and Lausanne serves all francophone Swiss men. METHODS - Of 3'227 young men that were seen during the army recruitment procedures, 445 voluntarily showed up for a BMI and 367 were included in the study (exclusions were random and unsystematic and related to organizational aspects in the recruitment center). After an initial assessment, subjects were randomized into two groups: an immediate BMI and a 6-month delayed BMI (waiting list design). A 6-month follow-up assessment was conducted in both groups. BMI was a face-to-face 20 minutes counseling session with a psychologist trained in motivational interviewing at baseline and a telephone session for the control group at follow-up. Strategies of BMI included the exploration and evocation of a possible behavior change, importance of future change, readiness to change, and commitment to change. A filmed example of such an intervention is available in French at www.alcoologie.ch. RESULTS - All procedures are now fully implemented and working and the provision of preventive efforts found general approval by the army. 3'227 were eligible for BMI and 445 of them (13.8%) showed up for receiving a BMI. 367 were included in the study, 181 in the BMI group and 186 in the control group. More than 86% of those included were reached at follow-up. With one exception all findings on alcohol use went in the expected direction, i.e. a stronger decrease in alcohol use (or a smaller increase as for usual weekly drinking amount) in the BMI group. The risk for risky single occasion drinking (RSOD) decreased from 57% at-risk users at baseline to 50.6%, i.e. a 6.4% point decrease in the BMI group, while there was only a 0.6% point decrease (from 57.5% to 56.9%) in the control group. Moreover, the study showed that there was a likelihood of crossover effects for other substances like tobacco smoking and cannabis use. Despite these encouraging and consistent positive findings, none reached significance at conventional levels (p < 0.05). DISCUSSION - Data suggest a beneficial impact of BMI on alcohol use outcomes and potential effect on other substance use in 19-year old men attending the army recruitment and showing up voluntarily for BMI. As the main aim was to implement and test feasibility of conducting BMI in this setting none of our findings reached statistical significance. The consistency of findings across measures and substances, however, raises hope that non-significance in the present study does not mean no effect, but mainly insufficient power of this pilot study. [Authors]

Effects of different mating scenarios on embryo viability in brown trout.

Mating with attractive or dominant males is often predicted to offer indirect genetic benefits to females, but it is still largely unclear how important such non-random mating can be with regard to embryo viability. We sampled a natural population of adult migratory brown trout (Salmo trutta), bred them in vitro in a half-sib breeding design to separate genetic from maternal environmental effects, raised 2098 embryos singly until hatching, and exposed them experimentally to different levels of pathogen stress at a late embryonic stage. We found that the embryos' tolerance to the induced pathogen stress was linked to the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) of their parents, i.e. certain MHC genotypes appeared to provide better protection against infection than others. We also found significant additive genetic variance for stress tolerance. Melanin-based dark skin patterns revealed males with 'good genes', i.e. embryos fathered by dark coloured males had a high tolerance to infection. Mating with large and dominant males would, however, not improve embryo viability when compared to random mating. We used simulations to provide estimates of how mate choice based on MHC or melanin-based skin patterns would influence embryos' tolerance to the experimentally induced pathogen stress.

Methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus clonal complex 398: high prevalence and geographical heterogeneity in bone and joint infection and nasal carriage.

The prevalence of clonal complex (CC) 398 methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) was unexpectedly high among bone and joint infections (BJIs) and nasal-colonizing isolates in France, with surprising geographical heterogeneity. With none of the major, most-known staphylococcal virulence genes, MSSA CC398 BJI was associated with lower biological inflammatory syndrome and lower treatment failure rates.

Disseminated M. avium complex infection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: declining incidence, improved prognosis and discontinuation of maintenance therapy.

Introduction of potent antiretroviral combination therapy (ART) has reduced overall morbidity and mortality amongst HIV-infected adults. Some prophylactic regimes against opportunistic infections can be discontinued in patients under successful ART. (1) The influence of the availability of ART on incidence and mortality of disseminated M. avium Complex infection (MAC). (2) The safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy against MAC in patients on ART. The Swiss HIV-Cohort Study, a prospective multicentre study of HIV-infected adults. Patients with a nadir CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3 were considered at risk for MAC and contributed to total follow-up time for calculating the incidence. Survival analysis was performed by using Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazards methods. Safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy was evaluated by review of the medical notes. 398 patients were diagnosed with MAC from 1990 to 1999. 350 had a previous CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3. A total of 3208 patients had a nadir CD4 count of less than 50 cells/mm3 during the study period and contributed to a total follow-up of 6004 person-years. The incidence over the whole study period was 5.8 events per 100 person-years. In the time period of available ART the incidence of MAC was significantly reduced (1.4 versus 8.8 events per 100 person-years, p < 0.001). Being diagnosed after 1995 was the most powerful predictor of better survival (adjusted hazard ratio for death: 0.27; p < 0.001). None of 24 patients discontinuing maintenance therapy while on ART experienced recurrence of MAC during a total follow-up of 56.6 person-years (upper 95% confidence limit 5.3 per 100 person-years). Introducing ART has markedly reduced the risk of MAC for HIV-infected individuals with a history of very low CD4 counts. Survival after diagnosis of MAC has improved after ART became available. In patients responding to ART, discontinuation of maintenance therapy against M. avium may be safe.

Complex landslide behaviour and structural controlled by the structures: A 3D conceptual model example of Åknes rockslide, Norway

Åknes is an active complex large rockslide of approximately 30?40 Mm3 located within the Proterozoic gneisses of western Norway. The observed surface displacements indicate that this rockslide is divided into several blocks moving in different directions at velocities of between 3 and 10 cm year?1. Because of regional safety issues and economic interests this rockslide has been extensively monitored since 2004. The understanding of the deformation mechanism is crucial for the implementation of a viable monitoring system. Detailed field investigations and the analysis of a digital elevation model (DEM) indicate that the movements and the block geometry are controlled by the main schistosity (S1) in gneisses, folds, joints and regional faults. Such complex slope deformations use pre-existing structures, but also result in new failure surfaces and deformation zones, like preferential rupture in fold-hinge zones. Our interpretation provides a consistent conceptual three-dimensional (3D) model for the movements measured by various methods that is crucial for numerical stability modelling. In addition, this reinterpretation of the morphology confirms that in the past several rockslides occurred from the Åknes slope. They may be related to scars propagating along the vertical foliation in folds hinges. Finally, a model of the evolution of the Åknes slope is presented.