Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Weibull modulus for diverse strength due to sample-specificity

By sample specificity it is meant that specimens with the same nominal material parameters and tested under the same environmental conditions may exhibit different behavior with diversified strength. Such an effect has been widely observed in the testing of material failure and is usually attributed to the heterogeneity of material at the mesoscopic level. The degree with which mesoscopic heterogeneity affects macroscopic failure is still not clear. Recently, the problem has been examined by making use of statistical ensemble evolution of dynamical system and the mesoscopic stress re-distribution model (SRD). Sample specificity was observed for non-global mean stress field models, such as the duster mean field model, stress concentration at tip of microdamage, etc. Certain heterogeneity of microdamage could be sensitive to particular SRD leading to domino type of coalescence. Such an effect could start from the microdamage heterogeneity and then be magnified to other scale levels. This trans-scale sensitivity is the origin of sample specificity. The sample specificity leads to a failure probability Phi (N) with a transitional region 0 < (N) < 1, so that globally stable and catastrophic modes could co-exist. It is found that the scatter in strength can fit the Weibull distribution very well. Hence, the Weibull modulus is indicative of sample specificity. Numerical results obtained from the SRD for different non-global mean stress fields show that Weibull modulus increases with increasing sample span and influence region of microdamage.

Optimization Of Off-Null Ellipsometry For Air/Solid Interfaces

The optimization of off-null ellipsometry is described with emphasis on the improvement of sample thickness sensitivity. Optimal conditions are dependent on azimuth angle settings of the polarizer, compensator, and analyzer in a polarizer-compensator-sample-analyzer ellipsometer arrangement. Numerical simulation utilized offers an approach to present the dependence of the sensitivity on the azimuth angle settings, from which optimal settings corresponding to the best sensitivity are derived. For a series of samples of SiO2 layer (thickness in the range of 1.8-6.5 nm) on silicon substrate, the theory analysis proves that sensitivity at the optimal settings is increased 20 times compared to that at null settings used in most works, and the relationship between intensity and thickness is simplified as a linear type instead of the original nonlinear type, with the relative error reduced to similar to 1/100 at the optimal settings. Furthermore the discussion has been extended toward other factors affecting the sensitivity of the practical system, such as the linear dynamic range of the detector, the signal-to-noise ratio and the intensity from the light source, etc. Experimental results from the investigation Of SiO2 layer on silicon substrate are chosen to verify the optimization. (c) 2007 Optical Society of America.

Thickness And Component Distributions Of Yttrium-Titanium Alloy Films In Electron-Beam Physical Vapor Deposition

Thickness and component distributions of large-area thin films are an issue of international concern in the field of material processing. The present work employs experiments and direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method to investigate three-dimensional low-density, non-equilibrium jets of yttrium and titanium vapor atoms in an electron-beams physical vapor deposition (EBPVD) system furnished with two or three electron-beams, and obtains their deposition thickness and component distributions onto 4-inch and 6-inch mono-crystal silicon wafers. The DSMC results are found in excellent agreement with our measurements, such as evaporation rates of yttrium and titanium measured in-situ by quartz crystal resonators, deposited film thickness distribution measured by Rutherford backscattering spectrometer (RBS) and surface profilometer and deposited film molar ratio distribution measured by RBS and inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometer (ICP-AES). This can be taken as an indication that a combination of DSMC method with elaborate measurements may be satisfactory for predicting and designing accurately the transport process of EBPVD at the atomic level.

Tensionless Contact Of A Finite Beam Resting On Reissner Foundation

A more generalized model of a beam resting on a tensionless Reissner foundation is presented. Compared with the Winkler foundation model, the Reissner foundation model is a much improved one. In the Winkler foundation model, there is no shear stress inside the foundation layer and the foundation is assumed to consist of closely spaced, independent springs. The presence of shear stress inside Reissner foundation makes the springs no longer independent and the foundation to deform as a whole. Mathematically, the governing equation of a beam on Reissner foundation is sixth order differential equation compared with fourth order of Winkler one. Because of this order change of the governing equation, new boundary conditions are needed and related discussion is presented. The presence of the shear stress inside the tensionless Reissner foundation together with the unknown feature of contact area/length makes the problem much more difficult than that of Winkler foundation. In the model presented here, the effects of beam dimension, gap distance, loading asymmetry and foundation shear stress on the contact length are all incorporated and studied. As the beam length increases, the results of a finite beam with zero gap distance converge asymptotically to those obtained by the previous model for an infinitely long beam. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estado forestal del Pinus caribaea Morelet var. Hondurensis en el Pinal, Laguna de Perlas, RAAS

Tbe present study was carried out in the strip of land coast between Pearls Lagoon community and the Caribbean sea, in the nearness of Pinar lagoon, 25 km to the north of Bluefields. The geographical coordinates of the area are 12" 13' N and 83" 42' west. Tbe climate presents an annua! rninfall of 4 250 mm, an avera· ge temperature of 26 "C and a relative humidity of 89 %. The topography is plain and tbe elevation oscillates between O· 10 masl. The ma.in objective of the study was to evaluate the forest conditions in which forest of P. Caribaea var .. Jwndurei'ISis ealled the Pinal are found. The methodology employed consisted of gathering all information using air pllotographs and topograpbieal maps to defined the area and stands group (designed A, B, C, D, E, F and G). Two block and seven stands were found, in which invent.ory lines with sample plots of 500 m1 each one were employed to measure the indivíduals with DBH over 10 cm. The intensily it shows ís of !5% and was measured diameter, height, age and other. In tbis forest there where found seven stands with a total area covered with pine of 312.42 has. The average age is 23 years and estirnated total volume of 97.4 ms of wood. The density is of 60,61 trees hectare, with an average volume of 13.02 m3 /has and a commercial volume of 8.29 m' 1 has. Where found lndices of place 12 (stands G), 9 y 6. Besides, the 6.3.64 % of the trees has a satisfactory tendency of growlh (quality l and 2). lt can be concluded that the resource is in badly state due to intensive exploitations and annual f!fCS; is a young forest (23 years old), dotninated by índi viduals of small diameters (10-25 cm) and medium height (5-25 m); the available areas or with possibilities of being planting are: estimated in 468.64 has. This forest has a half annual increment of 1.4.3 cm/year, which is considered excellent and is c1assified with Clas P-III, FAO Classification by forests stratification.

Abordaje metodológico de la marginalidad urbana en el barrio San Francisquito de la ciudad de Rosario

Resumen: La ciudad de Rosario es la segunda área metropolitana del país que registra una incidencia relevante de asentamientos y población residente en los mismos. La mayoría de los asentamientos se ubica sobre viejos trazos de vías del ferrocarril, pero también los hay sobre las vías en uso y otros terrenos fiscales y privados. Los mismos ocupan el 2% de la superficie de la ciudad y el 15% de sus habitantes. Este estudio se realiza en el barrio San Francisquito, comprendido entre las calles Francia, Avellaneda, Ocampo y Seguí. El objetivo del mismo, es describir las estrategias metodológicas desarrolladas, durante este primer año, en el marco de la investigación. Los materiales y métodos utilizados están descriptos por etapas, en la primera se determinó la muestra de hogares, en la segunda se explica los ajustes al formulario de la encuesta de condiciones de vida y la tercera etapa desarrolla la estrategia de capacitación para el trabajo de campo. La muestra, distribuida por sector y radio; la adaptación de los formularios y los talleres de capacitación son los resultados alcanzados. Considerándose estratégico el fortalecimiento de las capacidades locales para la sustentabilidad del proyecto.

An empirical comparison of the performance of alternative option pricing models

Published as an article in: Investigaciones Economicas, 2005, vol. 29, issue 3, pages 483-523.

Ground-water resources data of Charlotte, DeSoto, and Hardee Counties, Florida

Charlotte, De Soto, and Hardee counties are east-southeast of Tampa in west-central peninsular Florida, figure 1. In order to plan the future water-resource development of the area, information about the water resources is needed. To meet this need, the Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Peace River Basin Board of the Southwest Florida Water Management District as part of the statewide cooperative program with the Division of Geology, Florida Board of Conservation, began a continuing hydrologic data collection program in July, 1963, as an initial step in the investigation and evaluation of the groundwater resources of Hardee and De Soto counties. A similar hydrologic data program commenced in Charlotte County in July, 1964. Previous work in Hardee and De Soto counties included a one year reconnaissance by the Division of Water Resources and Conservation, Florida Board of Conservation, which concluded in June, 1963, and resulted in a hydrologic report (Woodard, 1964). As an outgrowth of the hydrologic data program, a Map Series report portraying the chemical character of water in the Floridan aquifer in the southern Peace River basin was prepared in 1967 (Kaufman and Dion). The data contained herein constitute the basis for the Map Series report. Additional selected data, including records of wells and chemical analyses,, on the ground-water resources of the three county area are also included and are published to make the data available. (Document has 28 pages.)

Annotated bibliography on socio-economic and ecological impacts of marine protected areas in Pacific Island countries

The bibliography is to highlight impacts on fisheries and livelihoods attributed to coral reef marine protected areas in Pacific Island countries and territories. Included in this collection is literature that reports various forms of reef area management practiced in Pacific Island countries: reserves, sanctuaries, permanent or temporary closed areas, community and traditional managed areas. (Document contains 36 pages)

Summary report on water quantity and quality studies of Vancouver Lake, Washington

Vancouver Lake, located adjacent to the Columbia River and just north of the Vancouver-Portland metropolitan area, is a "dying" lake. Although all lakes die naturally in geologic time through the process of eutrophication,* Vancouver Lake is dying more rapidly due to man's activities and due to the resultant increased accumulation of sediment, chemicals, and wastes. Natural eutrophication takes thousands of years, whereas man-made modifications can cause the death of a lake in decades. Vancouver Lake does, however, have the potential of becoming a valuable water resource asset for the area, due particularly to its location near the Columbia River which can be used as a source of "flushing" water to improve the quality of Vancouver Lake. (Document pdf contains 59 pages) Community interest in Vancouver Lake has waxed and waned. Prior to World War II, there were relatively few plans for discussions about the Lake and its surrounding land area. A plan to drain the Lake for farming was prohibited by the city council and county commissioners. Interest increased in 1945 when the federal government considered developing the Lake as a berthing harbor for deactivated ships at which time a preliminary proposal was prepared by the City. The only surface water connection between Vancouver Lake and the Columbia River, except during floods, is Lake River. The Lake now serves as a receiving body of water for Lake River tidal flow and surface flow from creeks and nearby land areas. Seasonally, these flows are heavily laden with sediment, septic tank drainage, fertilizers and drainage from cattle yards. Construction and gravel pit operations increase the sediment loads entering the Lake from Burnt Bridge Creek and Salmon Creek (via Lake River by tidal action). The tidal flats at the north end of Vancouver Lake are evidence of this accumulation. Since 1945, the buildup of sediment and nutrients created by man's activities has accelerated the growth of the large water plants and algae which contribute to the degeneration of the Lake. Flooding from the Columbia River, as in 1968, has added to the deposition in Vancouver Lake. The combined effect of these human and natural activities has changed Vancouver Lake into a relatively useless body of shallow water supporting some wildlife, rough fish, and shallow draft boats. It is still pleasant to view from the hills to the east. Because precipitation and streamflow are the lowest during the summer and early fall, water quantity and quality conditions are at their worst when the potential of the Lake for water-based recreation is the highest. Increased pollution of the Lake has caused a larger segment of the community to become concerned. Land use and planning studies were undertaken on the Columbia River lowlands and a wide variety of ideas were proposed for improving the quality of the water-land environment in order to enhance the usefulness of the area. In 1966, the College of Engineering Research Division at Washington State University (WSU0 in Pullman, Washington, was contacted by the Port of Vancouver to determine possible alternatives for restoring Vancouver Lake. Various proposals were prepared between 1966 and 1969. During the summer and fall of 1967, a study was made by WSU on the existing water quality in the Lake. In 1969, the current studies were funded to establish a data base for considering a broad range of alternative solutions for improving the quantity and quality of Vancouver Lake. Until these studies were undertaken, practically no data on a continuous nature were available on Vancouver Lake, Lake River, or their tributaries. (Document pdf contains 59 pages)

Lithology and palynology of cave floor sediment cores from Wakulla Spring, Wakulla County, Florida

Five short bottom sediment cores taken in Wakulla Spring Wakulla County, Florida, were described lithologically and sampled for palynological study. Four of the cores were recoveredfrom sediments at the spring cave entrance (130 feet water depth). One core was taken in a fossil vertebrate bone bed, 280 feet distance into the main spring cave at a water depth of 240 feet. Sediments in the cores are composed of alternating intervals of quartz sand and calcilitite, containing freshwater diatoms, freshwater mollusk shells and plant remains. The predominant pollen present in all cores consists of a periporate variety typical of the herb families Chenopodiaceae and Amaranthaceae. Arboreal flora, typical of the area surrounding the spring today, represent a very low percentage of thle pollen assemblage in the cores. Clustered Chenopod-Amaranth type pollen observed in one core suggest minimal transport prior to deposition, and indicate that the bottom sediments in the cave may be essentially In situ. An absence of exotic flora suggests a Quaternary age for the sediments. (PDF contains 11 pages.)

Nutrient Limitation of Periphyton in a Spring-Fed, Coastal Stream in Florida, USA.

There is strong evidence to suggest that ground-water nitrate concentrations have increased in recent years and further increases are expected along portions of the central Gulf coast of Florida. Much of the nitrate enriched groundwater is discharged into surface waters through numerous freshwater springs that are characteristic of the area and the potential for eutrophication of their receiving waters is a legitimate concern. To test the potential effects of elevated nutrient concentrations on the periphyton community an in situ nutrient addition experiment was conducted in the spring-fed Chassahowitzka River, FL, USA, during the summer of 1999. Plastic tubes housing arrays of glass microscope slides were suspended in the stream. Periphyton colonizing the microscope slides was subjected to artificial increases in nitrogen, phosphorus or a combination of both. Slides from each tube were collected at 3- to 4- day intervals and the periphyton communities were measured for chlorophyll concentration. The addition of approximately 10 μg/L of phosphate above ambient concentrations significantly increased the amount of periphyton on artificial substrates relative to controls; the addition of approximately 100 μg/L of nitrate above ambient concentrations did not. The findings from this experiment implicated phosphorus, rather than nitrogen, as the nutrient that potentially limits periphyton growth in this system.(PDF contains 4 pages.)

Measures of Plant Surface-areas for Eurasian Watermilfoil and Water Stargrass

Plant surface areas were measured from samples of two common submersed aquatics with widely diverging morphologies: Eurasian watermilfoil ( Myriophyllum spicatum L.) and water stargrass ( Heteranthera dubia (Jacq.) MacM.). Measures for the highly dissected leaves of Eurasian watermilfoil involved development of a regression equation relating leaf length to direct measures of a subsample of leaf parts. Measures for the simple leaves of the stargrass were sums of measured triangles. Stem surfaces for both species were calculated as measured cylinders. Though the means of the stem length and leaf length were larger for stargrass samples, their mean surface area was 95 cm 2 which was less than the 108 cm 2 recorded for Eurasian watermilfoil samples. Relating surface area to dry weight for the stargrass was straightforward, with 1 mg of dry weight yielding an average 0.678 cm 2 of surface area. Biomass measures for the water milfoil were confounded by the additional weight of epiphytic algae persisting on cleaned samples. The results suggest that a lesstime consuming method for surface area measures of plants with highly dissected leaves and a caveat for using biomass measures to estimate surface area in such plants.

Evaluation of macrophyte control in 38 Florida lakes using triploid grass carp

Florida’s large number of shallow lakes, warm climate and long growing season have contributed to the development of excessive growths of aquatic macrophytes that have seriously interfered with many water use activities. The introduction of exotic aquatic macrophyte species such as hydrilla ( Hydrilla verticillata ) have added significantly to aquatic plant problems in Florida lakes. The use of grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) can be an effective and economical control for aquatic vegetation such as hydrilla. Early stocking rates (24 to 74 grass carp per hectare of lake area) resulted in grass carp consumption rates that vastly exceeded the growth rates of the aquatic plants and often resulted in the total loss of all submersed vegetation. This study looked at 38 Florida lakes that had been stocked with grass carp for 3 to 10 years with stocking rates ranging from < 1 to 59 grass carp per hectare of lake and 1 to 207 grass carp per hectare of vegetation to determine the long term effects of grass carp on aquatic macrophyte communities. The median PAC (percent area coverage) value of aquatic macrophytes for the study lakes after they were stocked with grass carp was 14% and the median PVI (percent volume infested) value of aquatic macrophytes was 2%. Only lakes stocked with less than 25 to 30 fish per hectare of vegetation tended to have higher than median PAC and PVI values. When grass carp are stocked at levels of > 25 to 30 fish per hectare of vegetation the complete control of aquatic vegetation can be achieved, with the exception of a few species of plants that grass carp have extreme difficulty consuming. If the management goal for a lake is to control some of the problem aquatic plants while maintaining a small population of predominately unpalatable aquatic plants, grass carp can be stocked at approximately 25 to 30 fish per hectare of vegetation.