Upgrading or polarization? occupational change in Britain, Germany, Spain and Switzerland, 1990-2008

This paper analyzes the pattern of occupational change in four Western European countries over the last two decades: what kind of jobs have been expanding -- high-paid jobs, low-paid jobs or both? By addressing this issue, we also examine what theoretical account is consistent with the observed pattern of change: skill-biased technical change, skill supply evolution or wage-setting institutions? Our empirical findings show a picture of massive occupational upgrading that closely matches educational expansion. In all four countries, by far the strongest employment growth occurred at the top of the occupational hierarchy, among managers and professionals. Yet in parallel, in Britain and Switzerland, as well as in Germany and Spain after 1996 and 2002 respectively, relative employment declined more strongly in the middling occupations (among clerks and production workers) than at the bottom (among interpersonal service workers). This slightly polarized pattern of occupational upgrading is consistent with the "routinization" hypothesis that technology is a better substitute for average-paid jobs in production and the office that for low-paid jobs in interpersonal services. However, we find large cross-country differences in the employment evolution at the bottom of the occupational hierarchy, among low-paid services workers: sizeable growth in Britain and Spain, but stagnation in Germany and Switzerland. This results points towards the possibility that wage-setting institutions filter the pattern of occupational change.

Change in physical activity after smoking cessation: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study.

AIMS: To estimate physical activity trajectories for people who quit smoking, and compare them to what would have been expected had smoking continued. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5115 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA) study, a population-based study of African American and European American people recruited at age 18-30 years in 1985/6 and followed over 25 years. MEASUREMENTS: Physical activity was self-reported during clinical examinations at baseline (1985/6) and at years 2, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20 and 25 (2010/11); smoking status was reported each year (at examinations or by telephone, and imputed where missing). We used mixed linear models to estimate trajectories of physical activity under varying smoking conditions, with adjustment for participant characteristics and secular trends. FINDINGS: We found significant interactions by race/sex (P = 0.02 for the interaction with cumulative years of smoking), hence we investigated the subgroups separately. Increasing years of smoking were associated with a decline in physical activity in black and white women and black men [e.g. coefficient for 10 years of smoking: -0.14; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.20 to -0.07, P < 0.001 for white women]. An increase in physical activity was associated with years since smoking cessation in white men (coefficient 0.06; 95% CI = 0 to 0.13, P = 0.05). The physical activity trajectory for people who quit diverged progressively towards higher physical activity from the expected trajectory had smoking continued. For example, physical activity was 34% higher (95% CI = 18 to 52%; P < 0.001) for white women 10 years after stopping compared with continuing smoking for those 10 years (P = 0.21 for race/sex differences). CONCLUSIONS: Smokers who quit have progressively higher levels of physical activity in the years after quitting compared with continuing smokers.

Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions

A major challenge in this era of rapid climate change is to predict changes in species distributions and their impacts on ecosystems, and, if necessary, to recommend management strategies for maintenance of biodiversity or ecosystem services. Biological invasions, studied in most biomes of the world, can provide useful analogs for some of the ecological consequences of species distribution shifts in response to climate change. Invasions illustrate the adaptive and interactive responses that can occur when species are confronted with new environmental conditions. Invasion ecology complements climate change research and provides insights into the following questions: i) how will species distributions respond to climate change? ii) how will species movement affect recipient ecosystems? and iii) should we, and if so how can we, manage species and ecosystems in the face of climate change? Invasion ecology demonstrates that a trait-based approach can help to predict spread speeds and impacts on ecosystems, and has the potential to predict climate change impacts on species ranges and recipient ecosystems. However, there is a need to analyse traits in the context of life-history and demography, the stage in the colonisation process (e.g., spread, establishment or impact), the distribution of suitable habitats in the landscape, and the novel abiotic and biotic conditions under which those traits are expressed. As is the case with climate change, invasion ecology is embedded within complex societal goals. Both disciplines converge on similar questions of "when to intervene?" and "what to do?" which call for a better understanding of the ecological processes and social values associated with changing ecosystems.

Reference intervals for common carotid intima-media thickness measured with echotracking: relation with risk factors.

AIMS: Common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCIMT) is widely used as a surrogate marker of atherosclerosis, given its predictive association with cardiovascular disease (CVD). The interpretation of CCIMT values has been hampered by the absence of reference values, however. We therefore aimed to establish reference intervals of CCIMT, obtained using the probably most accurate method at present (i.e. echotracking), to help interpretation of these measures. METHODS AND RESULTS: We combined CCIMT data obtained by echotracking on 24 871 individuals (53% men; age range 15-101 years) from 24 research centres worldwide. Individuals without CVD, cardiovascular risk factors (CV-RFs), and BP-, lipid-, and/or glucose-lowering medication constituted a healthy sub-population (n = 4234) used to establish sex-specific equations for percentiles of CCIMT across age. With these equations, we generated CCIMT Z-scores in different reference sub-populations, thereby allowing for a standardized comparison between observed and predicted ('normal') values from individuals of the same age and sex. In the sub-population without CVD and treatment (n = 14 609), and in men and women, respectively, CCIMT Z-scores were independently associated with systolic blood pressure [standardized βs 0.19 (95% CI: 0.16-0.22) and 0.18 (0.15-0.21)], smoking [0.25 (0.19-0.31) and 0.11 (0.04-0.18)], diabetes [0.19 (0.05-0.33) and 0.19 (0.02-0.36)], total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio [0.07 (0.04-0.10) and 0.05 (0.02-0.09)], and body mass index [0.14 (0.12-0.17) and 0.07 (0.04-0.10)]. CONCLUSION: We estimated age- and sex-specific percentiles of CCIMT in a healthy population and assessed the association of CV-RFs with CCIMT Z-scores, which enables comparison of IMT values for (patient) groups with different cardiovascular risk profiles, helping interpretation of such measures obtained both in research and clinical settings.

Is it Time to Change Your Hat?, 2003

A one page informational sheet about skin cancer and the hat you wear. Sun Safety

Caution on the storage of waters and aqueous solutions in plastic containers for hydrogen and oxygen stable isotope analysis

RATIONALE The choice of containers for storage of aqueous samples between their collection, transport and water hydrogen (2H) and oxygen (18O) stable isotope analysis is a topic of concern for a wide range of fields in environmental, geological, biomedical, food, and forensic sciences. The transport and separation of water molecules during water vapor or liquid uptake by sorption or solution and the diffusive transport of water molecules through organic polymer material by permeation or pervaporation may entail an isotopic fractionation. An experiment was conducted to evaluate the extent of such fractionation. METHODS Sixteen bottle-like containers of eleven different organic polymers, including low and high density polyethylene (LDPE and HDPE), polypropylene (PP), polycarbonate (PC), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), and perfluoroalkoxy-Teflon (PFA), of different wall thickness and size were completely filled with the same mineral water and stored for 659?days under the same conditions of temperature and humidity. Particular care was exercised to keep the bottles tightly closed and prevent loss of water vapor through the seals. RESULTS Changes of up to +5 parts per thousand for d2H values and +2.0 parts per thousand for d18O values were measured for water after more than 1?year of storage within a plastic container, with the magnitude of change depending mainly on the type of organic polymer, wall thickness, and container size. The most important variations were measured for the PET and PC bottles. Waters stored in glass bottles with Polyseal (TM) cone-lined PP screw caps and thick-walled HDPE or PFA containers with linerless screw caps having an integrally molded inner sealing ring preserved their original d2H and d18O values. The carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen stable isotope compositions of the organic polymeric materials were also determined. CONCLUSIONS The results of this study clearly show that for precise and accurate measurements of the water stable isotope composition in aqueous solutions, rigorous sampling and storage procedures are needed both for laboratory standards and for unknown samples. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Organizational Choice and Environmental Change

We explain the choice between franchising and vertical integration by estimating a model of relative performance in a sample of 250 Spanish car distributors, controlling for self-selection and including environmental factors. The method allows us to estimate performance counterfactuals. Organizational choice seemingly aims to contain moral hazard for both distributors and manufacturers but it is subject to start-up constraints and switching costs. While the market for franchises remained underdeveloped, information asymmetries led to the opening of integrated outlets. Their subsequent conversion into franchised outlets probably involved prohibitive transaction costs. Consequently, they performed worse than would have been expected had they been independent, as confirmed by the systematic improvement observed when they were in fact converted. The timing of such conversions suggests that switching costs were prohibitive until firms developed a substantial cushion of temporary contracts, previously forbidden by regulation.

Organisational Values as "Attractors of Chaos": An Emerging Cultural Change to Manage Organisational Complexity

Business organisations are excellent representations of what in physics and mathematics are designated "chaotic" systems. Because a culture of innovation will be vital for organisational survival in the 21st century, the present paper proposes that viewing organisations in terms of "complexity theory" may assist leaders in fine-tuning managerial philosophies that provide orderly management emphasizing stability within a culture of organised chaos, for it is on the "boundary of chaos" that the greatest creativity occurs. It is argued that 21st century companies, as chaotic social systems, will no longer be effectively managed by rigid objectives (MBO) nor by instructions (MBI). Their capacity for self-organisation will be derived essentially from how their members accept a shared set of values or principles for action (MBV). Complexity theory deals with systems that show complex structures in time or space, often hiding simple deterministic rules. This theory holds that once these rules are found, it is possible to make effective predictions and even to control the apparent complexity. The state of chaos that self-organises, thanks to the appearance of the "strange attractor", is the ideal basis for creativity and innovation in the company. In this self-organised state of chaos, members are not confined to narrow roles, and gradually develop their capacity for differentiation and relationships, growing continuously toward their maximum potential contribution to the efficiency of the organisation. In this way, values act as organisers or "attractors" of disorder, which in the theory of chaos are equations represented by unusually regular geometric configurations that predict the long-term behaviour of complex systems. In business organisations (as in all kinds of social systems) the starting principles end up as the final principles in the long term. An attractor is a model representation of the behavioral results of a system. The attractor is not a force of attraction or a goal-oriented presence in the system; it simply depicts where the system is headed based on its rules of motion. Thus, in a culture that cultivates or shares values of autonomy, responsibility, independence, innovation, creativity, and proaction, the risk of short-term chaos is mitigated by an overall long-term sense of direction. A more suitable approach to manage the internal and external complexities that organisations are currently confronting is to alter their dominant culture under the principles of MBV.

The varieties of regional change

Many metropolitan areas have experienced extreme boom-bust cycles over the past century. Some places, like Detroit, grew enormously as industrial powerhouses and then declined, while other older cities, like Boston, seem quite resilient. Education does a reasonable job of explaining urban resilience. In this paper, we present a simple model where education increases the level of entrepreneurship. In this model, human capital spillovers occur at the city level because skilled workers produce more product varieties and thereby increase labor demand. We decompose empirically the causes of the connection between skills and urban success and find that skills are associated with growth in productivity or entrepreneurship, not with growth in quality of life, at least outside of the West. We also find that skills seem to have depressed housing supply growth in the West, but not in other regions, which supports the view that educated residents in that region have fought for tougher land-use controls. We also present evidence that skills have had a disproportionately large impact on unemployment during the current recession.

Cartilage thickness at the posterior medial femoral condyle is increased in femorotibial knee osteoarthritis: a cross-sectional CT arthrography study (Part 2).

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the thickness of cartilage at the posterior aspect of the medial and lateral condyle in Osteoarthritis (OA) knees compared to non-OA knees using computed tomography arthrography (CTA). DESIGN: 535 consecutive knee CTAs (mean patient age = 48.7 ± 16.0; 286 males), were retrospectively analyzed. Knees were radiographically classified into OA or non-OA knees according to a modified Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grading scheme. Cartilage thickness at the posterior aspect of the medial and lateral femoral condyles was measured on sagittal reformations, and compared between matched OA and non-OA knees in the whole sample population and in subgroups defined by gender and age. RESULTS: The cartilage of the posterior aspect of medial condyle was statistically significantly thicker in OA knees (2.43 mm (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.36, 2.51)) compared to non-OA knees (2.13 mm (95%CI = 2.02, 2.17)) in the entire sample population (P < 0.001), as well as for all subgroups of patients over 40 years old (all P ≤ 0.01), except for females above 60 years old (P = 0.07). Increase in cartilage thickness at the posterior aspect of the medial condyle was associated with increasing K/L grade in the entire sample population, as well as for males and females separately (regression coefficient = 0.10-0.12, all P < 0.001). For the lateral condyle, there was no statistically significant association between cartilage thickness and OA (either presence of OA or K/L grade). CONCLUSIONS: Cartilage thickness at the non-weight-bearing posterior aspect of the medial condyle, but not of the lateral condyle, was increased in OA knees compared to non-OA knees. Furthermore, cartilage thickness at the posterior aspect of the medial condyle increased with increasing K/L grade.

Cyclical Skill-Biased Technological Change

Over the past two decades, technological progress has been biased towards making skilled labor more productive. The evidence for this finding is based on the persistent parallel increase in the skill premium and the supply of skilled workers. What are the implications of skill-biased technological change for the business cycle? To answer this question, we use the CPS outgoing rotation groups to construct quarterly series for the price and quantity of skill. The unconditional correlation of the skill premium with the cycle is zero. However, using a structural VAR with long run restrictions, we find that technology shocks substantially increase the premium. Investment-specific technology shocks are not skill-biased and our findings suggest that capital and skill are (mildly) substitutable in aggregate production.

Financial Repression in a Natural Experiment: Loan Allocation and the Change in the Usury Laws in 1714

If financial deepening aids economic growth, then financial repression should be harmful. We use a natural experiment – the change in the English usury laws in 1714 – to analyze the effects of interest rate restrictions. We use a sample of individual loan transactions to demonstrate how the reduction of the legal maximum rate of interest affected the supply and demand for credit. Average loan size and minimum loan size increased strongly, and access to credit worsened for those with little ‘social capital.’ While we have no direct evidence that loans were misallocated, the discontinuity in loan receipts makes this highly likely. We conclude that financial repression can undermine the positive effects of financial deepening.

Late Early Triassic climate change: Insights from carbonate carbon isotopes, sedimentary evolution and ammonoid paleobiogeography

The late Early Triassic sedimentary-facies evolution and carbonate carbon-isotope marine record (delta(13)C(carb)) of ammonoid-rich, outer platform settings show striking similarities between the South ChinaBlock (SCB) and the widely distant Northern Indian Margin (NIM). The studied sections are located within the Triassic Tethys Himalayan belt (Losar section, Himachal Pradesh, India) and the Nanpanjiang Basin in the South China Block (Jinya section, Guangxi Province), respectively. Carbon isotopes from the studied sections confirm the previously observed carbon cycle perturbations at a time of major paleoceanographic changes in the wake of the end-Permian biotic crisis. This study documents the coincidence between a sharp increase in the carbon isotope composition and the worldwide ammonoid evolutionary turnover (extinction followed by a radiation) occurring around the Smithian-Spathian boundary. Based on recent modeling studies on ammonoid paleobiogeography and taxonomic diversity, we demonstrate that the late Early Triassic (Smithian and Spathian) was a time of a major climate change. More precisely, the end Smithian climate can be characterized by a warm and equable climate underlined by a flat, pole-to-equator, sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, while the steep Spathian SST gradient suggests latitudinally differentiated climatic conditions. Moreover, sedimentary evidence suggests a transition from a humid and hot climate during the Smithian to a dryer climate from the Spathian onwards. By analogy with comparable carbon isotope perturbations in the Late Devonian, Jurassic and Cretaceous we propose that high atmospheric CO(2) levels could have been responsible for the observed carbon cycle disturbance at the Smithian-Spathian boundary. We suggest that the end Smithian ammonoid extinction has been essentially caused by a warm and equable climate related to an increased CO(2) flux possibly originating from a short eruptive event of the Siberian igneous province. This increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentrations could have additionally reduced the marine calcium carbonate oversaturation and weakened the calcification potential of marine organisms, including ammonoids, in late Smithian oceans. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.